Has Detroit played an easy schedule?

by Matt W on Dec 11, 2007 2:45 PM CST Comment 7 comments

As seen on TrueHoop (and passed along to me by Q Dog), stat guru Dave Berri (taking time out from his tit-for-tat with Tom Ziller) analyzed the Pistons' season to date. The verdict? They've been blessed with an easy schedule.

This is based strictly on strength of schedule -- the collective winning percentage of Detroit's opponents to date is just .447, which is apparently the second-lowest of any team in the league, ahead of only the Nuggets. My quibbles, for what it's worth:

All games aren't created equal. Meaning, sometimes it's easier to play a team with a winning record when you have two days' rest than it is to play a team with a losing record when it's the second half of a back to back.

The Pistons played eight of their first 10 on the road -- nothing easy about that. They've already had to do four games in five days in four different cities -- again, not too easy. Yes, all teams go through such scheduling quirks at some point in the season, but the Pistons have done so in their first 20 games and still came out with a 14-6 record.

Strength of schedule doesn't matter yet. Example: the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls had a horrible, horrible start to the season, but I guarantee they won't finish the season with their current .333 winning percentage. But the fact that the Pistons have played them twice, though, means their .333 counts twice. (I think. But even if it counts only once, it's still misleading -- that team has already turned things around, winning four of six, including their second win of the season over the Pistons.)

So yeah, I don't know if my counter-arguments really hold much water compared to Berri's assertions, but that was my immediate reaction. Berri also admits there might be another explanation -- that is, several of the players (namely, Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes and Rasheed Wallace) currently exceeding expectations might actually have experienced genuine improvement -- which I actually think is closer to the truth. Time will tell.

Update: Man, I forgot the most obvious counter, which Matt Gibson posted in the comments:

People easily forgot how many games a major piston player has missed. I think with that considered the record is pretty darn good.

That's right on. Of the five starters, only Tayshaun Prince has played in every game, with the other four starters missing at least two games apiece.

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I am so sick of everybody getting on the pistons back all the time. Easy schedule? C’mon a wins a win. You gotta keep on keeping on you know. Life’s a garden dig it.

by Ronnie on Dec 11, 2007 4:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well some of us pistons fans have been saying the same thing to the celtics. I read most of the article and I didn’t really agree with it. People easily forgot how many games a major piston player has missed. I think with that considered the record is pretty darn good.

by Matt Gibson on Dec 11, 2007 5:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

So when did the pistons start playing in he BCS? whatever!!!!!!

by Doc Sloan on Dec 11, 2007 6:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bah. The Pistons smoked the Magic on the road and beat Golden State on the back end of a back-to-back on the road. Chicago and Cleveland are both going to make the playoffs. The only game where Detroit weren’t the better team was the loss to Utah at the Palace. The only real stinker they played was at Portland. Giving 19 solid efforts in 20 games is what matters. Detroit is clearly a title contender which is what their record shows.

by joejoejoe on Dec 11, 2007 7:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

By “better team” I meant better basketball team on paper. Obviously when you lose you are not the better team on a given night.

by joejoejoe on Dec 11, 2007 8:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Look, the celtics have yet to show me anything. Sports is about winning, no matter who the opponent. The celtics haven’t played the major NBA teams and they don’t have a bench. Let’s see how the big three look after game 65, playing 38 minutes a night. The pistons will win the east as long as Flip doesn’t panic and continues to play 8-10 players during the season. Period.

by L.G. Wright on Dec 12, 2007 10:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Since 8 of the 12 non-Detroit .500+ teams are in the West I would expect this trend to continue throughout the season. Detroit has played 9/30 games against Western Conference teams, 10/30 after playing Houston tonight. 8 of those 10 will have been on the road. That means we still have 13 home games against the West and only 7 away games.

Will Detroit’s schedule get tougher? Only if East teams start improving… like Washington(Arenas gets back), Cleveland(LeBron is back), Chicago, Toronto, and Miami.

Anyways, that’s my take.

by Brad on Dec 12, 2007 11:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs