The Argentine Solution: Why Herrmann should replace Hayes
Continuing in a series of cameos by DBB readers, here's Mike Payne. -- MW
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By Mike Payne
With the looming NBA trade deadline just a few days away, DetroitBadBoys.com has been abuzz with reader trade proposals. Some have been ambitious, others intriguing, while others yet have been strictly for entertainment. The common trait of many of these trades is the addition of a veteran small forward to Detroit's roster. Names like Mike Miller, Andrei Kirilenko, and even Ron Artest have been suggested as inbound players, with Detroit giving up little more than bench players who rarely, if ever, see a spot in Flip Saunders' rotation. Another common trait of these proposals? The departure of Pistons forward Walter Herrmann.
Perhaps these trade proposals are the result of interest in who is being shopped. This also suggests, however, that the Pistons have a hole to address at the small forward position behind Tayshaun Prince. This raises one very important question: is Jarvis Hayes the best option as Detroit's backup small forward? If not, who should the Pistons seek to replace or supplement him before the trade deadline closes? While a player like Mike Miller would be magic behind Prince, this guest blogger believes that there is an easier option. Enter our favorite departing player in DBB trade talk, Walter Herrmann.
As our favorite blogger did with Amir Johnson, I call for more playing time for Walter Herrmann and a spot in Detroit's rotation over Jarvis Hayes. Jarvis has a few obvious problems that must be addressed going into the playoffs. In making this case, I'll outline Jarvis's weaknesses and show how Walter Herrmann is an improvement across the board.
Consistency
This season, Jarvis Hayes has had a noted problem with consistency. He's had some hot streaks, he's had cold streaks, he's had on nights and off nights. In the six games spanning January 12th through the 21st, Hayes shot just 7 of 35 from the field. That stretch included Detroit's longest losing streak of the season, with losses to Sacramento, Chicago and Orlando. In a seven game series, Hayes's performance could be a flip of the coin. Will he help, or will he tank?
While his sample set is much smaller, Walter Herrmann has proven to be a consistent scoring option in his career. In the last 20 games of the 2006-07 season, Herrmann shot a remarkable 61% from the field-- 131 baskets on 214 field goals. During this stretch, Herrmann's worst night involved 40% shooting on 5 field goal attempts against the Boston Celtics. This speaks to the next issue that needs to be addressed with Jarvis Hayes, his shooting.
Shooting Performance
It appears that Flip Saunders' primary employment of Jarvis Hayes is as a perimeter shooter and occasional slasher. Flip runs plays for Hayes to be the converter, so when the ball is in Jarvis's hands, he's going to shoot it. Alongside Hayes' consistency issues, he's not the reliable shooter Detroit needs to hold this job in Flip's playbook. Over his career, Hayes is a 40.7% shooter with a 35% 3-point average. While he's improved to 38.6% from downtown this season, he's no Rip, Tay, or Chauncey. He's also no Walter Herrmann.
Over his career, Herrmann is a 49.5% shooter and 42.2% behind the 3-point line. Herrmann's 61% shooting to close out last season was unreal for any forward not named McDyess. What makes that all the more amazing is that 84 of those 214 field goal attempts were from behind the 3-point line. This included Herrmann's career best game to date on April 14th against the Milwaukee Bucks. Herrmann put up 30 points on 12 of 15 shooting including 6 three pointers and 9 rebounds. Looking at the other 19 games in that streak, its easy to see that this game was not a fluke.
Defense
Defense is a little harder to quantify by reviewing game logs, career stats, etc. Neither Hayes nor Herrmann have significant steal/block numbers that are characteristic of solid defense. For those watching the Detroit Pistons at the Dallas Mavericks on January 9th, you've seen the defensive pest Herrmann can be. In an otherwise hot night for Dirk Nowitzki, Herrmann shut him down on defense, forcing Dirk into poor shot after bad pass after offensive foul. Recalling DBB's LawyerBoy on January 9th, "Regarding our game, me likes what me sees from Hermann. He was playing Nowitzki tough and frustrating him. The foul on Hermann was a complete acting job by Dirk (a very good one, I credit him), and then Hermann baited him back into the offensive foul. Very much the Pistons mantra, I love it." So do I, LB. And while Hayes is not a real liability on defense, Herrmann could be argued to be an improvement here as well.
In closing, there are many of us here who have liked what we've seen out of Walter Herrmann. In a season that is seeing great developments in players like Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson, the only remaining question mark remains in the shooting hands of Jarvis Hayes. Statistically, historically, Herrmann is an improvement over Jarvis Hayes. While this guest blogger was happy to see Jarvis fitting in so well in Detroit, our collective focus remains on an NBA championship. Solving this perceived weakness should not require a trade, only a renewed interest in the participation of Walter Herrmann in Flip Saunder's Pistons rotation.
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I share the same sentiments and have for a while. I don’t understand all the trade talk for a small forward when, as far as I can tell, we have what we need already, and for a hell of a price. I’ve seen some say that Herrmann doesn’t fit the role of a gunslinger that apparently Jarvis is trying to fill. However, I just don’t see the desire to have someone less versatile on the floor. Hayes certainly knows how to put up shots. But Herrmann can do the same thing; the difference is that if the shot isn’t there, he can get to the basket or create something else. I wish an Flip was asked about Herrmann’s playing time as he was with Amir because I’d love to know what the reason is. I trust Joe, but there aren’t a lot of trades that, to me, would justify letting Herrmann go.
by Greg on Feb 20, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions
I agree. We really have nothing to lose by playing Herrmann over Hayes at least for a few games. Flip needs to see more of Herrmann and then can decide which one to use depending on the situation.
I have to say that it is truly impressive that this blog continues to provide the very best content – beating in a big way the big 3 – Freep, Detnews and Mlive who all more or less simply use the Piston’s press releases for their material.
Kudos to Matt and his “guest stars”
by IsraeliPiston on Feb 20, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions
I’ll second IsraeliPiston. Keep up the good work!
by Michael on Feb 20, 2008 2:21 PM EST reply actions
Defensively, Herrmann has trouble guarding the three-spot. He’s ideal for guarding Nowitzki, and that’s about it.
So the question is whether last year or this year represents the real Walter Herrmann. Last season represents a larger sample size, but he has been awful enough this year that we can’t ignore it.
I am inclined to think Herrmann has more game than Hayes, but you take a risk by switching up the rotation. It isn’t that clear cut to me.
by kevin s. on Feb 20, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Hayes, especially because of our lack of three point threats coming off the bench in recent years. But I think the biggest thing that Herrmann offers is in an area that has killed us in big games – energy. I agree that it would help the team to get Fabio a couple 20-30 min. games to see what he can do.
by Shinons on Feb 20, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions
Essentially, both guys are the same, with regard to Herrmann and Hayes.
I like the option of having either from the 3, and an emergency option similar to Tayshaun of having Herrmann against an undersized and faster 4.
If Detroit gets into a run-n-gun game like they do every so often, Herrmann’s one of those catch-and-release players that can trail the play waiting for a slasher to collapse the defense.
Neither are really that good at playing D.
by Sauce1977 on Feb 20, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions
there is no doubt that hermann is an upgrade over jarvis hayes. i wasn’t 100% convince about that until i saw payne’s comparison stats. i wasn’t sure before because of the offensive differences of the two, but i wouldn’t second doubt hermann over hayes when it comes to defense. consequently, i would rather trade hayes over hermann and maybe, maybe, we could get someone who might be able to back up prince because im sure, most team would recognize hayes over hermann, which is deceiving. a perfect trade-sales strategy.
by ric on Feb 20, 2008 3:54 PM EST reply actions
i agree with Sauce, switching Hayes for Herrmann would be a lateral move. Neither are unique talents, nor are either of them obvious fits to replace Tay.
i like both hayes and herrmann. however, i think that we’ve got a lot of good pieces that aren’t doing us any good. they could be packaged together for a player far better than herrmann or hayes.
this season anyway, i think herrmann has more value as a bargaining chip than a player. he and hayes are both iffie, and i think they could be packaged with brezec and murray for a known, solid player on both ends of the floor.
by Kyle on Feb 20, 2008 3:54 PM EST reply actions
Even if Jarvis And Fabio are the same Fabio will get the crowd on it’s feet and cheering. and the 12th man is the difernce in the playofs.
by Maddsteve on Feb 20, 2008 4:06 PM EST reply actions
To me…
Offense
Jarvis has a quicker release and a better stroke. The only problem is that he has a tendency to drift to the side and not get his feet set. Hermann always seems to have his feet set but he has a slow release and almost seems to shoot with two hands. He needs more space to get off an outside shot than Jarvis.
Jarvis seems to have more of a back to the basket game. He’s a decent slasher too but Hermann seems to have the wing (and hand) span to be a better finisher around the hoop.
Defense
I haven’t seen enough of Hermann defending true SFs but I like how he handles those tweeners (Nowitzki in particular). And this is where I like having both of them. I think in most cases, Hayes fits the team’s needs better but I like having Hermann to take on Nowitzki, Nocioni, Turkoglu/R. Lewis and some others.
In short, I think they’re both able backups but Flip needs to use them based on matchups better.
by Quick Darshan on Feb 20, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply actions
Not sure how much Hermann gives since I’ve seen so little of him, but Hayes is a volume shooter that once he enters the game, he pulls the trigger every time he touches the ball (which is what Joe has asked of him when he brought him here). Hayes is also a known defensive liability, and is always iso’d on defense as soon as he enters, which usually results in the other team scoring. So if his shot is off, he’ll keep gunning, and the other team will continually abuse him. From what I have seen, Hermann will contribute in other ways if he isn’t hot, and isn’t the target of other teams offense when he enters. I say give Fabio a chance.
by Craig on Feb 20, 2008 4:29 PM EST reply actions
first off, thank you so much for speaking to something i’ve felt for quite some time now. Matt, you are truly speaking to your constituents.
i think the only reason why folks think herrmann has been iffy this year is because he’s gotten very minimal playing time. the only real opportunity he’s had so far to showcase his abilities was against dallas when he was given the task of guarding nowitski. if herrmann were to play significant minutes with the starters or first group off the bench, i think we could evaluate his skills much better.
i think the important difference between hayes and hermann is that walter makes better decisions and seems to be more versatile as a player. to be honest, walter seems like he has a greater hunger to play as well. maybe jarvis has gotten complacent and almost expects that he will keep his role as the first shooter off the bench.
herrmann is not a 3pt specialist per se, nor an undersized post player. i think he just knows how to play basketball- period.
by Pistonian revolution on Feb 20, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions
correction: thank you, Mike Payne, for writing this article. i did not notice that it was a different writer.
by Pistonian revolution on Feb 20, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions
I feel the same way. I’ve saw part of that stretch where he was getting consistent minutes, and I believe he can help this team. His numbers this year look bad because he’s been getting five minute spot duty at the end of blowouts, and that’s an incredibly small sample size that can’t be reasonably used to judge him. He looked similarly bad in Charlotte when he was given the same kind of minutes (it’s hard to judge players when they’re not being given much playing time, again a sample size issue) before exploding late in the season.
Hayes hasn’t been as bad as I expected him to be. He’s shooting better than I thought, and he’s a low mistake player who rebounds. That said, I think Hermann can offer more if given the opportunity.
by Paul M on Feb 20, 2008 5:14 PM EST reply actions
agreeing that it’s mostly an issue of rotation. no more 2-8 nights from the small forward position. you ain’t hittin? you’re sittin’. herrmann needs to do whatever amir did in practice and demand a spot. i worry about loading up with slashers though.
by Kyle on Feb 20, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions
Thats crazy Hayes should get more playing time if anything, Hermann is like William Bedford everytime he touch the ball he shoots.
by willmac on Feb 21, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions
Be more creative, and find ways to use them both. After all, how many basketball teams have a Walter, a Jarvis and a Chauncey?
by LanierFan on Feb 21, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions
Couple of things:
- Yes Hermann has a slower release but he also has a higher release so blocking it is significantly more difficult than blocking Jarvis. I also feel like Hermann is at least a few inches taller than Jarvis (Is Jarvis really 6’8"? and Hermann only 6’9" because when Jarvis guards Lebron he looks like he’s about 2 inches shorter).
- Hermann really is more versatile than Hayes in that he has the 3 ball, has the ability to beat his man off the dribble and finish at the basket, is a better offensive rebounder, more versatile on defense (meaning he can switch on double teams and you don’t run the risk of a blatant mismatch), and he plays completely within his means and the system. You don’t see Hermann forcing shots even at the end of the game when a lot of the time players have that “shoot first” mentality.
I don’t think this move is nearly as “lateral” as some people describe it but we’ll never really know until Hermann gets more PT.
Joe D’s point that he made to Chad Ford a week or so ago should be directly applied to Hermann as well: If you don’t play them now, you can’t play them in the playoffs. What happens if we have an injury to Tayshaun or Jarvis? If Hermann doesn’t get time now, we can’t expect ANYTHING from him in the playoffs…and since we’re pretty much locked into the 2 seed, wouldn’t this be an awesome opportunity to get Hermann in there with some starters?
by James B. on Feb 21, 2008 2:08 PM EST reply actions
Lets not forget Herrmann has more experience playing in some pretty big games for his national team. Gold medal and all that jazz.
by Fel on Feb 21, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions
look…we’re talking about 14-18 minutes at the SF spot and in the playoffs maybe 12-14 minutes. Hayes knows the pistons a little better, cuz he’s been here longer and when he’s hot he can really really score. If he misses his first 3, 4 shots Flip can still put Walter in and see what he’s gonna get from him. There’s still Afflalo who can play some minutes at the 3. So I don’t think it’s a huge problem at the SF backup spot.
by Alex on Feb 22, 2008 3:24 AM EST reply actions
Initially, I agreed with seeing if Herrmann could win the 3 spot from Jarvis, but lately I’ve got to thinking. Saunders has maintained that Herrmann is better at the four spot. He didn’t give any explanation for it, however, so initially I shrugged it off and went on thinking Herrmann should be given the chance. Then I saw a few games where Herrmann got into the game late at the 3 spot. He was getting burned off the dribble. Herrmann has shown he can guard fours, particularly mobile fours like Novitski. He hasn’t shown he can guard 3s with their quick first step. Jarvis’s defense has improved. There was a stretch where Hayes was playing Dwayne Wade and Wade couldn’t get past him. He even forced Wade into two turnovers. Hayes is streaky, but he’s giving a good defensive effort now. They’ve maintained all along that if he improves that, he’ll get more minutes and like a good trooper that’s what he’s done, so I can’t see penalizing him now.
by Sable on Feb 22, 2008 1:18 PM EST reply actions

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