On Amir Johnson’s fouls (again)

We were something like 23 – 5 last year when Amir played at least 10 minutes in the first three quarters.

We were 36 – 18 with him not in the rotation.

His WP/48 (wins produced per 48 minutes ) was the second highest on the team after Mr. Big Shot.

The way I look it at those are the numbers that count.

He’ll eventually be fine with the fouls, even if it takes a few more years. All young big men have that problem early on. We know what he can do – block shots, play with energy and athleticism, run the court – whether he ever figures out his offensive game and gets strong enough to hold his own down low will be what determines whether he’s just another good athletic role player or the kind of guy we can count on for 35 minutes per night.

Shinons: Yeah, I’d like to see him develop a go-to move (you’d think he could learn that little turn-around J from Sheed), but for now I guess I’ll settle for rim-rattling jams and crowd-pleasing alley-oops.

If we weren’t so deep, I would have slight concerns about Amir’s fouls. But I don’t. He did his job last year, now that he has a new boss his job will be different. Even if Amir starts, I expect very few foul-outs, perhaps none that weren’t asked of him.

OT: Independent of the kick ass count-down here on DBB, I just thought I’d share a little update with everyone (since I, myself, kind of forgot). We are NINE, NINE days away from the first pre-season game. NINE!!

Perhaps the discrepancy between the wins with and without Amir were not so much him being good, but the level of competition against which he was used? I would have to look at the actual teams the stats are against, but it would make sense that against the better teams, which would have a better record against us, the starters were used more. The weaker teams would see more of the bench. Since Amir was near the end of the bench, his “winning pecentage” might not tell you what you think it says. But I may be wrong.

Remember back when Darko was around and we won every game in which he played?

Perhaps the discrepancy between the wins with and without Amir were not so much him being good, but the level of competition against which he was used?>>

He was in the rotation for a solid two months straight every game except against Utah in Utah, the game we blew because our bigs ran out of gas. Flip tried to weasel his way out of that one with some garbage excuse.

If you watch a lot of basketball and really understand team rhythm on the court along with runs etc then you will notice how much better we are and any team he has ever played for is when he is on the court.

So, the one game Amir did not play in during this stretch we lost. I concede, you have a good point.

But remember, stats can be decieving, so do not take it personally that I am questioning yours.

Now, who was mad that Flip got fired? … Anybody? …. Anybody?

The thing in judging any player and how effective they are is to watch two things

1. How they do in their individual matchups
2. More importantly how the team does with that player on the court vs when they are not on the court.

For example if you look at the flow of our offense when Billups is running the point vs Stuckey the difference is immense.

The Pistons are so much better when Billups runs the point than when Stuckey runs the point.

Yes Stuckey is more exciting to watch and gets a lot of ESPN hype but Billups is one of the top 3 if not 2 top PGs in the NBA and has been for a number of years.

Yes he has slowed down and yes he has weaknesses, but the difference in our record with him on the court at 100%, which he wasn’t for the Celtic series, vs when he is off the court or not at 100% is huge.

He just makes everyone around him better. Stuckey is nowhere near that level. Stuckey can do some very good one on one things and can definitely make his foul shots, but he has a long way to go as a PG before he makes the other 4 guys on the court with him better.

It took Zeke a number of years before he was able to achieve that.

Amir is already at that level. Because of all the positive things he does that go in the box score he just makes the team better when he is getting consistent minutes on the court.

Last paragraph should have read

Amir is already at that level. Because of all the positive things he does that do not go in the box score he just makes the team better when he is getting consistent minutes on the court.

Mike: So are you unconcerned with Amir’s foul rate?

“We were something like 23 – 5 last year when Amir played at least 10 minutes in the first three quarters.

We were 36 – 18 with him not in the rotation."

Note that if Amir played at least 10 minutes in the first three quarters it was mostly a result of the starters already building a significant lead that allowed Flip to go deeper into his bench, i.e. giving Amir early minutes. Amir’s minutes were more often a “result of” a win than a “means to” a win.

I’m an Amir fan through-and-through, have always been an ardent supporter of him here on DBB. However, I’d caution against using those numbers, they tell a lot more about the first quarter performance of our starters than they do the performance of Amir Johnson.

Wow, I can’t believe the 1st pre-season game is only 9 days away…that’s phenomenal! I need to get the NBA Package on order pretty quickly then.

I’m not too worried about Amir’s foul rate either. It should get better through more playing time and knowing he’ll be a regular part of the rotation. If we had no depth at the big man positions (which we do) and Amir was being counted on to play 35 mpg (which he won’t) then we might have to worry a bit.

Very loosely eyeballing last year’s stats, here’s a worst-case scenario: Amir commits six shooting fouls and costs 8-12 points. Meanwhile he gets 2 or 3 blocks, 7 or 8 rebounds, maybe makes 4 of his 7 shots, gets a steal or two plus some loose balls and defensive hurries that don’t show up in the stat line.

Just guesstimates, of course … but if that was worst-case, would YOU worry much?

If he’s as good as many people think he is (with stuff like PER, WP, +/-, etc. backing up that perception), then it is a concern because he needs to stay on the floor to make the team as good as it could be.

He should be better about it as the season goes on. Like Matt said, I think Amir’s fouls were high because he might have been trying too hard to make a difference in his limited playing time. He has a lot to learn, but Sheed may be able to teach him how to make a big defensive impact without fouling.

In the summer league. the thing I noticed about Amir is that he either A) plays like a maniac getting rebounds, blocking shots, getting put backs, dunks…. and racks up a ton of fouls or B) plays reserved, doesn’t foul, and doesn’t get half the rebounds.

I’d rather have him start with A and fine tune his approach than go with the other option. I was thoroughly disappointed with him in the Summer League… I hope it was just a bad stretch for him.

So, is anyone gonna take a chance on Amir on their fantasy team? I might take him with my last pick (if he’s still there, which I can almost guarantee he will be).