Today is tomorrow’s memory: A look to the future

“At present, I stand by my contention that this roster is not going to compete for the championship.”

You still don’t quite get Bubbachuck…

hopefully our defense holds up, and it’s not simply the fact that we’re facing weaker teams… IF so, then we may actually match up better with the celtics this year… not because of iverson in my humble opinion, but b/c of the emergence of stuckey… if stuckey continues to be aggressive, he could create matchup problems for them… b/c they’ve proven to struggle with athletic strong players (see lebron, josh smith, joe johnson, etc.)… if stuckey can be that guy for us AND we continue to play some strong defense… we may match up better… and with either rip or AI coming off the bench, it would give us an advantage off of the bench

that being said… pistons still need to convince me that they are as good defensively this year as they were last year… and secondly, they need to get past likely atlanta or cleveland before facing the celtics anyway, and there are big question marks in detroit’s ability to beat those two teams in a 7-game series as well

actually i meant atlanta AND cleveland they’d face likely

If David Lee is still a target, a Kwame-Amir-2010 Pick package might be enough to convince the Knicks to think sign and trade.<<

I think that this trade would be great for Amir. He would develop a lot faster and excel at an even higher level playing for Walsh and D’Antoni.

Change you can believe in.

This is Mike and I approve this message

Nice work Kevin.

I’ve got to say that I’m feeling a lot better about our chances this year, despite what folks like Hollinger say. The two biggest reasons are that our defense is getting better (on paper at least – our opposing fg% is back closer to where it belongs, 44.2%. It was 43.7% last year) and that since Sheed and Rip went down MC seems to be gulp unincompetent. Boston’s struggles and Cleveland’s vulnerabilities in the frontcourt certainly don’t hurt.

For Joe D. to give us a reasonable chance to think we can compete for the title while having such a huge amount of cap space this summer is just awesome. The doubters of the AI-Billups trade are understandable, but we were stuck as the Indianapolis Colts of the NBA. It was time to make a move, even if it was just for the cap space. I’m very glad Joe D. is our GM.

I would argue that Afflalo is a bankable assett. He’ll never be a go-to scorer but he’s a jack-of-all-trades kind of player that all championship teams have somewhere in their rotation.

There were a couple articles about how Rondo has struggled lately because teams have started pulling taller defenders on him with long wing spans (Ariza, Jerred Jeffries) who just lay 4 feet off him when he has the ball. Rondo has shot only 23 for 85 on shots attempted outside the paint. So I started thinking about how we could potentially match up with Boston. How about Tay on Rondo with Stuckey guarding Ray Allen and Rip on Pierce? Rip spent a decent amount of time on Pierce last year and faired about the same, or maybe even a little better, as Tay. I hope it’s something Curry tries out next time we play.

Rando would burn Tay, Jim. Afflalo on rondo is a good match, imo.

qd.. totally agree about affalo. bruce bowen much?

@ Craig: Rando would burn Tay, Jim. Afflalo on rondo is a good match, imo.

Shouldn’t matter.

This is the Detroit BAD Boys site right? rondo comes in the paint, put him on his ass a couple of times. . . problem solved.

Heck, bring in Mahorn from the radio booth at side court. He’ll take care of it.

Mark, that was what i was screaming at my tv when lbj scorched us in that playoff game 2 years ago. I’d like to see herrmann designated as our resident bad ass. The refs would never tech up that hair, ever.

“The stutter-step approach … Ilgauskas … Boozer”

I don’t think Ilgauskas is in play, since Dan Gilbert seems willing to pay as much luxury tax as is necessary to field a proper team around Bron-Bron.

Boozer is a nice player, but the offer he gets in ’09 is likely to turn him into a long-term lousy contract.

I continue to think the odds are that Dumars spends one year money in ’09 to extend Sheed, Iverson, and Dice, and defers his spending spree for ’10.

I’m also not a big fan of the “not able to compete for a championship this year” bit. Not even compete? Boston’s hot run is similar to what we did when we were 35-7 at the All Star break (actually it’s less impressive than that). We didn’t win that year. Teams coming off of Finals appearances usually stay hot into the start of the next season and put up gaudy records. Since the Lakers 3-peat – how a team starts the season after coming off of a finals appearance means nothing. I mean seriously this was a team that we were capable of beating last year, their only improvement is that Rando is playing better, and I think we’ll be an improved team – Stuckey/Iverson will be a tougher backcourt than Billups/Hamilton for Celtics to have to defend, if Hamilton is coming off the bench than our bench is much improved (especially with an Afflalo who is getting steady 15-20 minutes this year) and we have more bigs, and an Amir with (more) experience – hopefully we can start a C that can outplay their worst player (unlike last year). Boston is more or less the same team. I don’t mention Cleveland, Orlando, or anyone else because I just don’t see how any Piston fan can automatically discount us against those teams.

As far as all of the trade talk, I seriously hope all those rumors (Wilcox, Lee, whoever else) are false. I don’t think we’ve had enough time with this roster to be making decisions as to where we need improvements. We have no idea what Amir would give us with consistent minutes. Maxiel no longer gets consistent minutes-but to me that doesn’t mean trade him necessarily. We know a lot about Afflalo but it seems like his offensive game could still blossom… I just wouldn’t want to see any of the “young guys” shipped away, the older guys are a different story – but I’d much rather keep their expiring contracts – but for 2010 not 2009. No Boozer.

“Big Z may be 33, but his odometer says 30, thanks to some early foot injuries.”

Since when do significant injuries — he’s had back problems too — indicate a player will play longer than his age suggests?

As far as bringing in a Bad Boy, my vote is to call up Dale Davis and tell him to bring some honey… we’ll supply the grizzly bear.

“I would argue that Afflalo is a bankable assett. He’ll never be a go-to scorer but he’s a jack-of-all-trades kind of player that all championship teams have somewhere in their rotation.”

I actually think Afflalo is your best bankable asset. Not because he’s necessarily your best young player, but because he’ll almost definitely be underpaid throughout his career.

Bruce Bowen has CAREER earnings of only $24m. After the end of his current big contract, which is likely his last, James Posey will have CAREER earnings of only $55m.

Perimeter defenders who can hit the 3 are extreme salary cap bargains for the value they add.

Craig…if Tay plays 4 feet off Rondo at all times I think he could do a solid job on him. Other teams are having success using players with similar physiques as Tay, so I think we should at least explore the option of Tay on Rondo. If Rondo wants to shoot jumpers all day then great. If he drives to the hoop Tay should have the necessary time to react (since he’s playing 4 feet off him) and use his condoresque length to bother Rondo’s layup and shots around the rim.

“Boozer is a nice player, but the offer he gets in ‘09 is likely to turn him into a long-term lousy contract.”

Let’s say we get him for around the same price the 76ers paid for Brand (5 years, $80 million). Would paying him around $16 million at 32 years old really be a lousy deal?

Besides, with guys like Kobe, Sheed, Kidd, Artest, Marion, Odom, and Shawn Marion all as free agents, most teams saving up for next summer, and Miami already loaded with power forwards (wouldn’t Artest or Odom make more sense for them?), I don’t think we’ll see too crazy of a deal thrown Boozer’s way.

I found out about an NBA rule last night that I’d never had any inkling of. Hilton Armstrong punched an offensive rebound out to midcourt in the NOH/LAL game, and the refs called a violation. Turns out that you’re not allowed to hit the basketball with a closed fist. Who knew?

During the first half of the NOH/LAL game, I was thinking that New Orleans couldn’t truly compete for a title this year since David West will only bring solid production in 2 or 3 games of a 7 game series, and the Hornets need solid production from him to win against good teams. Trying to teach me a lesson, West went for forty points. But I still think I’m likely right.

I group Boozer with West in my mind. Very nice asset, but a notch below reliably elite.

@Jim:
As long as we’ve got amir/max and sheed on the floor with them, I’d actually love to see that line of defense against Boston. I watched the 7 Seconds or Mess vid on Rondo’s weakness from outside and how to exploit it. It’d be interesting to see Detroit take a crack at that…

“Let’s say we get (Boozer) for around the same price the 76ers paid for Brand (5 years, $80 million). Would paying him around $16 million at 32 years old really be a lousy deal?”

1) Signing Boozer with the best offer will DEFINITELY be more expensive than Brand.
2) In a 5yr deal, you’ll be paying him at 34yo, not just 32yo. And he’ll likely get a 6yr deal, so you’ll be paying him at 35yo.

- Give me Boozer at $12m per over 5 years, and that’s a deal I’d happily sign.

- Paying Brand level money for Boozer strikes me as a mildly unpleasant deal to sign, but would make sense for the right team. (And I’m not sure the Pistons are the right team…)

- But I’d expect it’ll take an absolute minimum of $100m over 6 years to get him with the best offer, and likely even more than that.

Yeah, I’m definitely against the Boozer thing. He’s just too fragile, doesn’t play enough D, and, like Petey said, he’s really not an elite talent. All-star at best. Not that that’s anything to scoff at, but I think our “offensive big man” piece will come in 2010. For now we need a BANGER. 10/10 and a couple blocks. That type of guy… we might already have him.

Well, if Boozer comes in. There would still be room to resign Sheed for less money. Then, you have a starting lineup of: Stuck, Rip, Tay, Boozer and Sheed. Amir, Max and Afflalo off the bench. Backup PG and SF are still a question mark (Bynum? Sharpe?).

There is no thread up yet on tonights game so I thought I would use this thread to pose the question of matchups tonight.

I only bring it up because I think that it is interesting.

The TBs start a front line of

Aldredge
Oden
Batum

So how do the Pistons match up tonight?

First of all, whom do you put on Aldredge who is the main offensive threat by far, especially with Roy out.

I would match it up this way.

Sheed on Oden
Prince on Aldredge
Johnson on Batum

The problem I see with this choice is that Aldredge is a lot stronger than Prince and I think at this time Johnson is also stronger than Prince. If fouls didn’t matter I would put Johnson on Aldredge and Prince on Batum.

The other way the Pistons could match up would be

Johnson on Oden – Or Curry could start Kwame??
Sheed on Aldredge
Prince on Batum

My sense is that Curry will go with

Kwame staring and guarading Oden
Sheed on Aldredge
Prince on Batum

“Well, if Boozer comes in. There would still be room to resign Sheed for less money.”

Probably not, unless Sheed wants to play for the minimum.

I strongly assume Dumars is going to spend the $8m next year to make McDyess whole from the trade, which means if you start Boozer at $14m, you’ll be less than $10m under the tax threshhold with a bunch of positions still to fill.

They start Joel Pryzbilla at the C and he plays the majority of the minutes. He’s a beast on the boards and very competent defensively. We’re going to really have to work hard on the glass going up against him, Aldridge, AND Oden (7rpg off the bench). They start Rudy Fernandez at SG when Roy’s out, and he’s so good he could start at SG right now for 25 teams in the league. Don’t forget Steve Blake is playing very solid PG for them, and Sergio Rodriguez is one of the better bench PG’s in the league.

To start the game (assuming Sheed doesn’t play):

Kwame on Pryzbilla
Amir on Aldridge
Prince on Batum
AI on Blake
Stuckey on Fernandez

Once Oden comes in, Kwame/Dyess/Max will probably share time on him.

Here is Oden’s game log.

He has started every game since Nov 24th.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4243/gamelog;ylt=Apo7ivUyUyrwqURsVfzX5SKPaB4

The reason I knew that Oden has been starting at center is because I watch as many Portland games as I can, probably 2 or more a week.

@Petey – I think you’re quite a bit off on your Boozer evaluation. First off, he was born in Nov. 1981, which makes him 27 and in five years would make him 32 and younger than West or Brand. Secondly, you rarely see free agents sign for over $100 million – it’s usually a resigning by the current team. No one expects Utah to even bother trying to resign Boozer, which takes out who is usually the biggest challenger. What other team will really go after Boozer that hard? Miami is who people usually point to, but that would give them three power fowards who deserve minutes with huge holes at center and small forward.

“I’m also not a big fan of the "not able to compete for a championship this year" bit. Not even compete?”

I don’t think the proprietors here fully understand the advantage that Iverson’s ability to deform the opposing defense confers. If roles are properly assigned, many players on this roster are going to be able to play very well.

However, we do have a boatload of question marks.

We need Hamilton’s and Afflalo’s roles to get better defined. We still don’t have Iverson fully integrated into the offense. We still haven’t resolved the Issue of the Third Big. We still aren’t finding a steady source of 3pt shot attempts beyond Rasheed. Our old stars (besides Tay) are all a bit too old and are susceptible to injuries. Our young guys are all a bit too young and are susceptible to all kinds of problems.

But we definitely have the roster to compete with the elite. Our situation is much like Phoenix’s in the West. There are many places where the vehicle could break down. But we’re still one of the seven or eight teams in the league with a genuine shot of making it all the way through.

Kwame stars on Oden if Sheed can’t play.

It looks like it will be a game time decision.

Hamilton took part in some shooting drills and did some light running Tuesday. But he didn’t compete in the scrimmage or in any contact drills. Wallace spent the entire practice with physical therapist Arnie Kander.

“Whoever’s ready, that’s who we will play,” Curry said. “We have confidence in the other guys to get the job done.”

http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090107/SPORTS0102/901070341/1127/SPORTS0102

Not having Sheed simplifies the matchups somewhat as Kwame would of course go against Oden.

I am still not sure if Curry would put Johnson on Aldredge. Aldredge is there go to guy and it seems to me that even if Johnson is stronger than Prince he is still no where near the man to man defender that Prince is. Most of Aldredge’s game on offense consists of jump shots, though a number of those are post ups.

I think Prince matches up better on Aldredge not only because I think he could do a better job of guarding Aldredge but because Johnson is less likely to get into very quick foul trouble (like the first 2 minutes of the game) if Johnson is guarding Batum and not Aldredge

“First off, he was born in Nov. 1981, which makes him 27 and in five years would make him 32”

Wow. Correct you are. I need another cup of coffee.

But, as stated, he’s almost definitely in line for a six deal.

“Secondly, you rarely see free agents sign for over $100 million – it’s usually a resigning by the current team. No one expects Utah to even bother trying to resign Boozer”

I think both assumptions here are flawed.

First, I think Utah is one of the two most likely destinations for Boozer, along with Miami. I don’t think Utah is going to just not bid because of Milsap.

And second, Boozer is the top FA of the year. Those guys often do get offers north of $100m. The max offer for a guy not on your team is around $120m.

Petey,

I don’t know how to say this (for 109032nd time) but, it is highly unlikely that Dumars pays a what, 35 year old Antonio McDyess, $8 million just because he feels obligated to “make him whole”.

doubtful that’s going to happen there skippy… it’s throwing a perfectly good $8m per year out the window when you could split it between him and someone else OR he just retires and you dont worry about it

Petey…there is no way Joe D gives McDyess a deal for $8 million next year even if it is only a 1 year deal.

Also, I think it’s unlikely Boozer gets a near max deal this summer. Right now the only teams that could offer him max money are Detroit, Oklahoma City, and Portland. Minnesota (who already has Love and Jefferson) and Miami will have around 10 million in cap space. Portland won’t be interested since they have Oden and Aldridge, so it may be between us and Oklahoma City unless Miami can execute a sign and trade. When you factor in his injury history, especially with the knee injury this year, there is a TON of risk in putting that type of money into him. As Kevin S. said above, one of Joe D’s best attributes has been his ability to avoid bad conracts and Sam Presti of Oklahoma City seems like a pretty smart guy too.

Joel: According to Yahoo!, Sheed is probable for tonight; Rip is doubtful.

Elsewhere on the Portland front, Kevin Pritchard takes his second deep sigh of relief this year:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Ajs2M8wqViRThzcOtLbqo6O8vLYF?slug=ap-grizzlies-miles&prov=ap&type=lgns

@Mike

Touche. I are retarded?

“Petey…there is no way Joe D gives McDyess a deal for $8 million next year”

Not only is there a way, but it’s almost definitely going to happen.

During his tenure as GM, Dumars has established an unblemished rep around the league for doing the right thing by his players, and there is nothing in next year’s salary cap tea leaves that would force his hand into destroying that now.

Coming back to the Pistons this year cost Dice $8m, and there is no way Dumars isn’t going to make him whole.

Remember the under-the-table handshake between Joe Smith and Kevin McHale that cost the Timberwolves 5 first round draft picks? Dumars regularly does that without the illegal handshake, and that’s a valuable asset to have as a GM in attracting players.

Coach C. with the back pats for amir “I no longer just want him out on the court; we need him out on the court,” Curry said. “He does so much for us.”

And second, Boozer is the top FA of the year. Those guys often do get offers north of $100m. The max offer for a guy not on your team is around $120m.

NBA players who have signed over $100 mil contracts.

As far as I can tell it’s only happened twice that a player has left his team for a $100+ mil contract, only Shaq and Rashard Lewis. Last year Baron and Brand were the two biggest FAs to leave their teams and both did so for 5 year, $60ish million contracts.

“Also, I think it’s unlikely Boozer gets a near max deal this summer”

Agreed. But if he gets started out at only $12.5m, it still becomes a $100m contract averaging $16m per. And I think there are multiple teams that can easily get themselves that at least that far under the cap, including Miami.

I’d have to agree as far as Aflaflo not being a builting block right now. His defense is there and will be for many years to come but his 3-point shooting doesn’t seem very consistent. I’m not a stat guy and haven’t looked any up but it seems like he hasn’t been shoot as well of late and was very inconsistent last season. We all know that he’s the hardest worker on the team, and thats what could change status. He worked really hard on his tramp ball over the summer and now he’s only to the ‘decent’ level. He might be able to built his shooting up some more but thats normally a skill that is more god-given.

“As far as I can tell it’s only happened twice that a player has left his team for a $100+ mil contract, only Shaq and Rashard Lewis. Last year Baron and Brand were the two biggest FAs to leave their teams and both did so for 5 year, $60ish million contracts.”

Well, Brand got $80m, not $60m. Boozer is guaranteed to top that.

And, as stated, I do think there is a good shot Boozer returns to Utah.

Carlos Boozer is looking more and more like he’s going to be this summer’s Luol Deng. Let’s give a boatload of dough to a player with a history rich in injuries and see what happens. Well, it’s looking like Chicago’s going to get their 3rd dose in five years of Luol Deng missing at least 10 games. Boozer just clinched that for Utah last month. Boozer had no history before Utah, so can’t really blame O’Connor for that circumstance. Deng had history; John Paxson is an idiot. Joe D. is no idiot.

“Remember the under-the-table handshake between Joe Smith and Kevin McHale that cost the Timberwolves 5 first round draft picks? Dumars regularly does that without the illegal handshake, and that’s a valuable asset to have as a GM in attracting players.”

Examples?

I want David Lee BAAAAAAD!!! I watched the game Sunday between the Knicks and Celtics. I’m not saying he’s the next Wilt Chamberlain but he’s a heck of a complimentary young big man. He’ll give you 15 & 10 CONSISTENTLY. I know that any given night Amir or Maxey could give you 15 & 10, thus my use of the word Consistently. Anyone else David Lee admirers???

“(Afflalo’s) 3-point shooting doesn’t seem very consistent. I’m not a stat guy and haven’t looked any up…”

He’s topped 37% from beyond the arc in every season as a collegian and pro, except for his NBA rookie season.

If you shoot over 37%, you’re doing quite nicely, but it still looks to the eyeballs like you’re missing more than you make…

“Deng had history; John Paxson is an idiot”

The other problem is that Deng’s value is limited even if he is totally healthy.

I thought at the time that Paxson’s unwillingness to move Deng in a deal for Gasol or Garnett was one of the stupidest GM decisions in history. Chicago had the chips to land an elite big man and passed to keep Luol Deng…

Petey: Yep. Assuming 2 point FGAs and 3 point FGAs are even, shooting 33% from 3 creates the point effect of shooting 50% from 2. Obviously it’s not the norm, but there are lots of players who tend to put as many 3s (or more) than 2s and shoot over 33% from 3. And it’s hard to complain about someone who shoots 50% from inside the arc.

Petey: Chicago put up a very good fight against the Stones in the EC semis in ‘06-’07. Now they’re a joke. Kudos to Paxson for finagling Deng from the Suns for nothing, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while. Still doesn’t make up for the epic disaster he’s done with the squad.

The problem for Spellcheck isn’t his percentages. It’s that he needs to be wide open to reach those percentages. As the volume of shots goes up, the efficiency goes down. The Spurs can balance Bowen with three top-notch offensive players.

Petey – so while AI is going to get the MLE or less, McDyess is getting 8MM? Can we add Dice to our bet and go double or nothing on the “I told you sos?”

And agree with Lawyerboy (!?!) that Booz’s injury issues are gonna cost him big time in the FA market. You just can’t pay max to a guy that isn’t healthy.

Forty, let me present to you, Agent Zero!

"Petey – so while AI is going to get the MLE or less, McDyess is getting 8MM? Can we add Dice to our bet and go double or nothing on the "I told you sos?"

Well, I think Dumars is going to give Iverson more than the MLE next year. The MLE is what I think Iverson would get on the open market.

As to the bet, the problem is that there are a bunch of conditionals. Assuming Dumars brings back Iverson and Rasheed on one year deals, and saves his bullets for 2010, then he’ll have the money to take care of Dice. But Dice doesn’t have any “Bird rights”, so if Dumars ends up going over the cap this summer, he’ll have limited options for taking care of Dice.

So too many caveats to make a clean bet, but I do think it significantly more likely than not.

“The problem for Spellcheck isn’t his percentages. It’s that he needs to be wide open to reach those percentages. As the volume of shots goes up, the efficiency goes down. The Spurs can balance Bowen with three top-notch offensive players.”

But Afflalo’s volume is never going to get heavy, so his efficiency should never go down. He earns his tick on the other end of the court. In the offensive halfcourt, all he has to do is knock down open looks at high enough efficiency that the other team can’t profitably ignore him.

“The Spurs can balance Bowen with three top-notch offensive players.”

Welcome to your ‘08-’09 / ‘09-’10 Detroit Pistons.

As far as the future goes:

A player like Afflalo is a bit useless on a non-competitive team, but who cares about non-competitive teams? If you guys suck in 5 years, the fact that Afflalo isn’t a go-to scorer will be the least of your problems. And if you’re good in 5 years, Afflalo could take you from good to elite. Add to that the fact that not being a go-to scorer means he’ll take up less of your cap space.

Petey,

Considering it took Joe Dumars 4 seasons of a 5 year MLE contract to pay Chauncey Billups what he was actually worth, I’d argue AGAINST Joe D. signing McDyess to an $8m deal just for the sake making him square.

Add on to this thought process the fact that McDyess original contract value wasn’t $8m (the one he signed in ‘05) per year then both Dyess and Dumars will realize that not only is Dyess not worth $8m per year but he wouldn’t get it if he were just your regular everyday free agent big man.

This isn’t a booming economy anymore, and while that sounds pretty weak, the days of paying Andrew DeClerq/Nick Collison/Theo Ratliff/Keith Van Horn just to pay them are over. Dyess is more important to the team now than he’ll be next season as he’s concerned over whether he still wants to play or not.

“Well, I think Dumars is going to give Iverson more than the MLE next year. The MLE is what I think Iverson would get on the open market.”

Are you high?

E-Double, I love that David Lee cat. He’s one of my favorite players, despite his racial handicap.

“Are you high?”

Dude. It IS 4:20pm…

@Petey:
Somehow, I don’t think you had to reference that one… cough, cough

@Skylar:
David Lee is Samoan?

@Skylar: I have a man crush on David Lee as a player. He’s just the truth man. I’d looooooooooooooooooove to see him in a Pistons uniform. Isiah’s not there anymore so we probably have no chance of getting him. Donnie Walsh ain’t no dummy. I’m sure he knows he has a valuable piece on his hands. I must say as the President of the Maximus fan club, I’m a little embarassed at his lack of consistency this year. I thought this would be a break out year for Max (along the lines of Milsap in Utah). There’s 50 games left. Maybe he can still make me proud. I pray Amir stays out of foul trouble and continues to be a consistent and valuable tool for us. Go Pistons!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah Maxiell has definitely left me shaking my head.

If David Lee ever comes to the D, he needs to arrive with necktatt already on.