probably the best pistons preview i’ve seen from a national source. points out the obvious shortcomings everyone is so quick to talk about but still acknowledges the possibility for great upside with so much talent on the roster.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Baseline/entry/view/38446/the_baseline_sees_all_detroit_pistons#page_break

love me some shoals

what’s truly absurd is how anyone in their right mind could think lebron is better than kobe, let alone state it’s absurd that kobe be compared to him. how crazy is it to think someone with 0 rings is lightyears ahead of a superstar with 4?

Great list Kevin, I’m with you on almost everyone.

The two that I somewhat disagree with being included are Rose and Biedrins. Rose’s rookie season has definitely been overrated (Westbrook’s was IMO subjectively and statistically more impressive). But, looking at Rose’s college stats (he had essentially no statistical weakness in college) combined with his size/athleticism combo, still makes me optimistic that he’ll become an elite player.

Re: Biedrins, the reason I disagree about him is he wasn’t just grabbing a bunch of defensive rebounds, his offensive rebound % is one of the highest in the league. Last season Dwight Howard was the only player to average more offensive rebounds per game than Biedrins, so it’s pretty clear his high overall rebound % is not just a byproduct of playing with crappy rebounding teammates.

Also, for me, PPG’s is the stat I trust the least.

Is this post a rough draft that squeaked into view?

I agree with all on this list aside from Pierce and Kobe.

Pierce: His production has slipped because he is playing next to 2 all-stars now. He has that many less shots to go around, along with handling the ball less. Or by “production” do you mean efficiency?

Kobe: While it’s true that he needs a big man to win a championship…doesn’t every team? Kobe is one of the best, if not the best, scorer of all-time. He is an above average defensive player (he is overrated on defense), an above-average rebounder, and an average passer. Dude’s got 4 rings.

Kobe gets scratched, that man is a badass and puts the Fakers on his back whenever his ballclub ain’t heisting certain caveman looking spaniards.

Substitute Gilbert Arenas for Kobe. Even when he’s healthy enough to play, he’s no Bryant. Overpaid and Overrated though.

Here’s the thing:

This could be a fantastic conversation — but like most conversations like this, the entire argument will be had on subjective grounds.

To have a conversation like this, it seems like it’d be valuable to have some types of objective criteria, doesn’t it?

Austin Daye is suspended for the first game of the season along with JJ.

The problem with underrated and overrated lists is determining how, exactly, someone is rated. I generally try to stick to award voting, like how Steve Nash is overrated because he shouldn’t have been MVP twice. That said, here are my ramblings on a pretty good list. Thanks, Kevin.

Turkoglu: Agreed, absolutely. Hedo is a slightly above average small forward, who is more famous because his played in the Finals and handled the ball a lot.
Carmelo: Fair enough. He’s a very skilled offensive player but has to make contributions in other areas.
Rasheed: I feel he’s fairly rated, because I think at this point most people know most of his limitations. One thing that rarely gets mentioned is how his rebounding has declined.
Rose: I believe it was Joel here that thinks Rose will be better than Chris Paul, which is extremely unlikely. I’m glad his defense was mentioned. Rajon Rondo, who isn’t exactly the best scorer, just lit Rose up in their first round playoff matchup.
Rubio: Good call. People may overrated him because he’s fun to watch. Style points aren’t as important as actual points.
Odom: Wrong Kardashian.
Pierce: Good point about him being underrated when his team lost so much.
Biedrins: Gabe makes a great point about Biedrins’ offensive rebounding. That can’t really be explained away by the Warriors’ style. However, a lot of writers don’t take into account pace, as Biedrins’ numbers will be higher since he has more possessions to work with.
Williams: It’s a similar case to Pierce, here. Williams was basically the exact same player in Milwaukee. But because he’s playing with LeBron, all of a sudden people realize that he’s halfways decent. Obviously his All-Star nod was due to the misguided idea to reward great teams with multiple berths.
Bryant: Well said. Kobe shouldn’t have won MVP in 2008. He’s a great player, but not top five. Kelly Dwyer made a good point about why Bryant might be overrated during one of this Top 10 Decade lists. The league has been historically dominated by big men, except for Jordan. Since Kobe reminds views of Jordan, he’s associated with Jordan’s success.

@Rob G
Cold, man.

@brgulker
I mentioned in my giant rambling reply (sorry if the spacing makes it hard to read, everyone), but I completely agree on the importance of having some criteria. I brought up award voting, like All-NBA, All-Stars, MVPs, Rookie of the Year, etc. Generally these sorts of votes overemphasize scoring totals.

Another option would be looking at statistical rating systems and seeing if they’re capturing the true value of a player. A lot of those weaknesses are well known, though. Hollinger’s PER doesn’t credit defense. Berri overrates rebounding. Adjusted plus/minus sometimes gives you results that don’t make intuitive sense, like (as mentioned on TrueHoop recently) the Thunder being tons better without Kevin Durant.

“how crazy is it to think someone with 0 rings is lightyears ahead of a superstar with 4?”

I didn’t say he was light years better, but he is substantially better by any objective measure. LeBron has never had a player of Gasol or O’Neal’s caliber. And his lack of a big man was his teams downfall.

Also, I have the right Kardashian. It’s Kim that makes that a story, yah? The sister isn’t famous in her own right.

Mo Williams will continue to be a very good regular season player who fades in the playoffs, not quite the same as “overrated.”

Agree with all but Rose, Biedrins, and to some extent Anthony.

But as I’ve been pretty loud about here, I loathe Menudio, and Hedo is a joke. Nice list Kevin. I know they’re intended to stir things up, but this one is probably the most solid you’ve done yet.

@brgulker:

I always love your comments, I love your focus on objectivity analysis. What do you think about writing up an “overrated” list using objective means? We’ll publish it as a post here! I’ll email you.

I would have had Lebron on the list. Not because he isn’t one of the best players in the NBA, he is top two easy, but because according to ESPN he is the Messiah and we must bow down to his greatness.

@Laughton:
A-greed. Lebron – Ref Rules™ = Lebrmelo Janthony

MFWB™ (fun with HTML)

MFWB for sixth man of the year!!!!

KG never did anything without Pierce as a matter of fact Garnett missed three straight post-seasons before he got to Boston. Garnett yells and screams and everyone thinks he is the best thing since slice bread. Garnett routinely disappears in the end of games. Celtics don’t win banner 17 without Pierce stepping up to the challenge against Lebron and Kobe

I agree with most of the players on your list but there a few that have me thinking … “Is this guy serious?” Carmello Anthony? Paul Pierce? Kobe Bryant? What the hell? I won’t waste my time going into why these players aren’t overrated because it’s obvious. KOBE??? I’m not a Kobe fan but he’s clearly the best in the WORLD. I love DWade but Kobe is a couple notch or two above him. smh.

@"sports onions"
We already have an onions of our own. And he’s like a brother to us.

Shinons, you will now fight with knives.

A lot of the players you list look like they have high FTs per 48 numbers. I think that’s one area of NBA basketball that is hard to understand through statistics. It’s sweet to add a 8-10 from the line in the boxscore now and then but is it so sweet that it makes up for a 6-20 shooting night? That’s what you get with Carmelo, Rose, Kobe.

Paul Pierce adds 6 boards, 4 assists and 1.5 steals to whatever he gives you in points. I’m thinking he’s underrated.

Nice story. I can’t say I agree with all of it but I do agree with some it. Enough of it that i will submit it to stumble.

Can you guess which entries of ur list I disagreed with? I bet you can… lol

Since nobody has yet taken on the listing of former Piston Rasheed Wallace . . . rated at what point in his career? Until he came to Detroit, he was always considered a malcontent hot-head who had no leadership skills and didn’t play up to his potential.

In the hey-day of his tenure with the Pistons, he was lauded for defense, being able to spread the floor with three-point shooting, having a decent post game when he wanted to play it (although he never played it enough), and having a good attitude toward his teammates. But it’s not like he was ever widely lauded as being when of the best at his position. He was never more than a second-string all-star, and not even that most years. Beginning with the melt-down at the end of the Cavs series, even Detroit fans began to see his flaws. During the Celtics series they were even more obvious.

So who rated him so highly that he deserves to be in the top-10 most overrated? Even in his best years, Announcers said things like, "IF he played more in the post and IF he could keep his focus he would be one of the best . . . " and then they would laugh about the fact that they knew he never would.

Plus, I can’t believe his stock is very high right now after the Pistons’ years of just missing, then last year’s meltdown, and what are clearly declining skills.

And I say all this as someone who thought ’Sheed’s plusses far outweighed his minuses, at least most of the time, whil he was here.

“And I say all this as someone who thought ‘Sheed’s plusses far outweighed his minuses, at least most of the time, whil he was here.”

Adamantly agree. I just don’t think he has much left in the tank, and the last year demonstrated that.

“It’s harder to become overrated, because that means people had to think you were awesome before they thought you sucked.”

from the ten most accurately-rated artists in rock history, by chuck klosterman:

http://www.spin.com/articles/give-me-centrism-or-give-me-death

we should make a list of the most accurately-rated NBA players. my list starts with gerald wallace, tim duncan, and antawn jamison.

Scott – I was thinking Scottie Pippen was accurately-rated before I read the link! I wonder why Chuck Klosterman thinks Pippen was accurately-rated by accident?

JoD as a player is accurately rated. Mo Cheeks accurately rated. Sidney Moncrief. Kevin McHale. I think you have to be steady and not attract a lot of attention through star power or controversy to be accurately rated. Most accurately-rated, Kevin Ollie. Nobody goes around saying Kevin Ollie should be the starter. They say he’s well suited to being the 3rd PG and last guy off the bench. And he is!

I think the knee-jerk omg kobe folk need to re-examine what it means to be overrated. It does not mean kevin thinks kobe sucks. Since most people think kobe is the first or second best player in the league, if he is in fact third or lower, he is overrated. If you dislike kobe’s inclusion on the list, you need to argue why he’s better than chris paul, not why he doesn’t suck.

perhaps pippen, whose greatest strenghs didn’t necessarily show up in box scores, would have been “underrated” if not for the whole second-best player on 6 title teams thing. so it balances out, “by accident.”

JJJ – Joe D as a GM on the other hand might just make this list

I dunno. In all of NBA History, Pippen finished:

5th in Steals
25th in Assists
46th in Points
64th in Rebounds
82nd in Blocks

All of that while playing alongside a guy who is on all the same charts.

Pierce and Kobe shouldn’t be there
Hedo and Odom could be underrated. They’re in that “considered sounderrated they are overrated” catergory. Mo and Rose is unfair…Ditto Carmelo. Last season he made the leapt. You can credit Chauncey but he seemed like he was slowly reaching that level. Monta Eliis I think might have a career year but then again I’m looking at the preseason…

Overrated players to me:
Rashard Lewis
Andrew Bynum
Charlie Vilenueva
Shawn Marion (Well not anymore, now he’s just done)
Rodney Stuckey
Tayshaun Prince (See Odom evaluation)
Ron Artest (not close to the player he was)
Amare Stoudamire (Plays D like he’s drunk, never made the connect to elite player status)

I stopped reading at “mediocre three point shooting” re: ‘sheed and just scanned the rest… idiotic list, not backed up by stats or facts, just Kevin’s dumb opinion.

Hedo is a threat from anywhere, anytime. He’s a good point forward and can knock down some clutch shots. People will see how valuable he is to a team.
And for that fool up there, Tayshaun is the most under-rated player in the league. Period.

“I stopped reading at "mediocre three point shooting" re: ’sheed and just scanned the rest…

57th out of 75 Power Forwards in True Shooting percentage last year. His three point shooting percentage would have ranked last on the Celtics last year, among those who had enough attempts to be eligible. What word would you use to describe that performance?

I would remove Kobe and replace him with T-Mac.

@Mike:
No, dude. I don’t think anyone overrates Tracy McGrady. I don’t know anyone, sports writer or fan, who thinks Tracy McGrady is better than he actually is.

TRADE… SOMETHING. NOW.

I overrate T-Mac. He let former Connecticut great (and I’m a big UConn ball fan, men and women) Nykesha Sales borrow his trainer or chef or something one summer for free when they both played in Orlando. Nykesha Sales played in the same HS conference as I did when I was a kid and I used to say my first niece looked like her as a toddler. T-Mac is a nice guy and I’m a sucker for that. Go T-Mac! When he is healthy and aggressive (which isn’t all that often) he’s one of the best players ever. On the nights he’s on, he suckers me in.

wow

lots of sour grapes in this one

especially the rubio “analyses” are absolutely ridicolous. grow up

“F – Carmelo Anthony

If it weren’t for the fact that he was drafted in the same draft as LeBron James, would anyone regard this guy as a superstar? Anthony’s talented, but consistently phones in the first half of the season. There’s a reason he’s only played in two all-star games (once as an alternate). He was 33rd in Player Efficiency Rating last year, and really the third best performer on his own team."

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR PRINTING THAT!

Anytime I make this case I get lambasted. This guy plays horrible defense, and if he isn’t winning he’s whining. I am SO glad we took Darko over ’Melo. ’Melo would have = Allen Iverson on this team. (I will admit I misjudged AI, I was living in the LB Philly days when we got him last year).

Do people really think ‘Melo would have been able to play for Larry Brown? I don’t…

“Anytime I make this case I get lambasted. This guy plays horrible defense, and if he isn’t winning he’s whining. I am SO glad we took Darko over ‘Melo. ‘Melo would have = Allen Iverson on this team. (I will admit I misjudged AI, I was living in the LB Philly days when we got him last year).

Do people really think ‘Melo would have been able to play for Larry Brown? I don’t…

Darko barely played under Larry Brown at all, unless you count 5 minutes of garbage time a game. I guess i can’t say i would have rather taken carmelo over Darko, because we might not have won a championship (might have messed up chemistry), but i would have much rather taken the likes of Wade or Bosh over Darko.

What. The. Fuck.

Joel
Oct 11th, 2009 at 8:56 pm

Hedo is a threat from anywhere, anytime. He’s a good point forward and can knock down some clutch shots. People will see how valuable he is to a team.
And for that fool up there, Tayshaun is the most under-rated player in the league. Period.

Um, I didn’t write that. Everybody here should know I can’t stand Hedo and believe him to be a monumentally overrated hack. And Tayshaun is UNDER-rated? Um, take off your homer-glasses Faux-Joel. Tayshaun’s laid one consistently worse turd of a season after another since Flip Saunders’ first year here. I want him gone ASAP— he’s absolutely the piece that will be being moved this season, if anyone is at all. Joe has confirmed this by drafting 341 small forwards, one of which is EXACTLY Tayshaun prince only taller, younger, and with infinitely more offensive potential. “Waaahhhh, Tayshaun blocked a shot once like a decade ago that was pretty neat! Waaahhh!” Get. The. Fuck. Out.

On the “over-rated” subject— I think the only subjective way to tell who’s over or under-rated is to look at how much people are getting paid. Stuckey can’t possibly be overrated to me because he’s only making like $1.8 million— for 15 pts and like 5 assists, that’s a STEAL. Thus making him underrated. Now Michael Redd or Tracy McGrady— $17mil and $23mil respectively— are 100% overrated. This is because their salary proves somebody somewhere thought they were worth making more money for their play than 99.5% of the league, which is unequivocally false. Thus, over-rated. Fact.

Re: Melo

He took the leap at the end of last season. If you watch any basketball at all, you should have been able to see that. There’s no better clutch shooter in all of basketball— he proved in the playoffs and has multiple times in his career lead the league.

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

He’s 5th place on the list in “made shots in the final 24 seconds of a game where neither team is ahead by more than two,” and his .481 fg% is lightyears beyond anyone else in the top-10 (basically a who’s who of NBA superstars). He played great defense in the playoffs, rebounds with much more effort than he used to, his 3pt% has gone up, and has been a much more willing passer (this is all Chauncey’s doing, BTW). I just don’t see how he’s “over-rated” when he’s making around $14mil/yr, producing on a high clip, and doing so in the clutch for a team that went deeeeeep into the playoffs. That’s exactly what you want for $14mil, right? Wouldn’t we be expecting precisely that if we throw that type of money at Bosh/Amare/whoever?

The Larry Brown Question is a valid one though. It took ’Melo 5 seasons to quit being a knucklehead. That would not have flown with “Mr. Play-the-right-way.”

My overrated team:

Rajan Rondo (good, but not as good as the hype)
Stephen Jackson (sucks more than he’s given credit for)
Amare Stoudamire

Anytime I make this case I get lambasted. This guy plays horrible defense, and if he isn’t winning he’s whining. I am SO glad we took Darko over ‘Melo. ‘Melo would have = Allen Iverson on this team. (I will admit I misjudged AI, I was living in the LB Philly days when we got him last year).

Preface: I think Melo is overrated.

Which is exactly why I would still have preferred him to Darko. People see that Melo scores points, and that in itself makes him very valuable — as a trade asset. Melo wouldn’t help the Pistons if he played for us, but he could have netted us value in return.

=======

Concerning Scottie Pippen:

All one needs to do is look at how dominant he was during Jordan’s absence in Chicago. The man could play basketball, and he was one of the best of his era. Diminishing returns applies.

====

Earlier I made a quasi-gripe about this (and similar) conversations as a whole. Frankly, it’s a fun topic to debate, and I love the debates, but more often than not, these conversations are futile, because they are grounded in subjective impressions without any reference to objective measures.

It seems to me that if we are going to have this conversation, we need some type of objective frame of reference. I would offer the following (as a place to start thinking objectively):

1) Salaries. I think Joel was right on. Salaries are a good indication of perceived value around the league.

1-A) Salaries tend to be driven by scoring totals, without respect to efficiency or other statistical measures. Hence, T-Mac, AI (previously), Kobe, Melo, and on down the line. Scorers get paid highly in the NBA, and guys who only score or who score inefficiently are prime targets for any overrated list (as they should be!!!).

2) Production. This is where it gets sticky. How does one determine production? The box score? Advanced Box Score? Plus-mins? PER? Win Score?

I don’t know that I have a definitive measure that answers the question completely, but I don’t think it’s possible to have this conversation without some objective reference that helps us measure how players impact the game (i.e., how productive they are).

Personally, I’ve been pretty sold on Berri’s win score metric (reading his book literally changed the way I watch and evaluate basketball) for evaluating individual players, and I kind of like looking at +/- numbers to evaluate how groups of players perform while on the court together. So when I have this conversation, I tend to think in those terms.

2-B) Talent does not equal production. Kobe Bryant is insanely talented. Allen Iverson is/was insanely talented. Melo is insanely talented. Yet, IMO, those players scoring totals skew our perception of their overall value.

Kobe, for example, is overrated IMO. Kobe is very productive, but there are players who are much more so. Yet, Kobe makes max money, and he’s widely regarded as one of the “best,” if not “the best,” player in the NBA. But, like Kevin, I would take any of the players on his list before I would take Kobe.

I realize that’s a wall o’ text, but I don’t think you can have a productive conversation without going through at least some of that.

Okay, with that said, here are some of my thoughts on Kevin’s list:

Hedo Turkoglu

I’m not sure about Hedo. On the one hand, he was pretty productive last season. OTOH, he is getting old, and old players get worse over time. On the other hand, it’s not as if he’s making max money. If over the next two seasons he produces like he did this past season, I don’t think he’s going to be overpaid (and probably not overrated). If he doesn’t, well, then he’s overpaid (and probably overrated).

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo is improving, but what he still offers little more than scoring (and relatively inefficient scoring at that) in spite of all his talent. Overrated, absolutely.

Rasheed Wallace

Sheed will be taking some of Big Baby’s minutes and some of Leon Powe’s minutes (and possibly some of Perkins’ minutes). I think Sheed is a big upgrade over Baby, but Powe was more productive last season (in spite of not scoring as much). I don’t see how Sheed’s numbers don’t go down overall (minutes, points, rebounds), and I have a suspicion that he’s going to shoot more 3’s than ever (which will translate into a worse FG%). I don’t expect him to play enough minutes to make them worse overall, but I don’t see that Boston has taken significant strides as a result of his addition.

Boston fans overrate Sheed. I think everyone else realizes he’s all but washed up.

Derrick Rose

Pretty much co-sign with Kevin here. The kid’s got potential, absolutely, but potential is often nothing more than a synonym for under-achiever. I think people think he’s destined to be an elite player, but it’s entirely possible that he’s the next Rodney Stuckey.

Ricky "The Princess" Rubio

Way too soon to know for sure, but something in me tells me that he’s going to be a perennial starter for really bad teams (because he doesn’t produce enough to help the team win).

Lamar Odom

Absolutely disagree, here. Lamar Odom is eerily similar to Scottie Pippen, IMO, in that he’s playing next to 2 other very productive players who are used much more than he is; consequently, diminishing returns again applies. IMO, Lamar Odom is a fantastic player, and LA absolutely does not win the Chip without him. He shoots efficiently, rebounds very efficiently (at both forward positions, no less), extends the defense, handles the ball, etc. Put him on any contending team, and he puts them over the top (or very close to it).

Paul Pierce

Is he really considered a HoF lock? I guess I’m not convinced that that’s the general perception of him, but I could be wrong there. Pierce is very good, and I’ve assumed that’s how he’s generally perceived. If that’s the case, then I don’t think he’s overrated. As a first ballot HoFamer, yeah, overrated for sure.

Andris Biedrins

If you say exactly the opposite of what Kevin said, you would have my thoughts. I think rebounding numbers are wildly undervalued in the NBA and are actually very good indicators of a player’s value.

Would Biedrins care less about rebounding on a different squad? Would his per-minute rebounding get worse on aanother team? Those are two very hard sells to me, and it seems like they are the driving assumptions behind Kevin’s argument. Further, it’s not as if you can blame Andris for never touching the ball in GS, can you?

And how is Kaman overrated? If healthy, he’s a walking double double. It doesn’t matter how you score your points or get your boards. IMO, this is another point where talent skews perception of production. So Kaman can’t score in the post like Ewing or Olajuwon. But who cares? He can score garbage buckets and grab rebounds. What more do you want in a 7-footer?

Mo Williams

Mo actually posted some of the best numbers in his career in terms of productivity, but he’s far from an all-star … overrated, but still very valuable to the Cavs.

Kobe Bryant

Co-sign with Kevin, especially with Wade, LBJ, Howard, and Paul. All 4 of those guys are far more productive than Kobe and hence win more games for their respective squads.

This other Anti-Tayshaun Joel up there obviously knows no other life away from his computer, but i’d also like to point out that Tayshaun is definately underrated. A consistent 14 points, 5 boards and a couple assists isn’t good enough? The fact that he hasn’t missed a game in 6 years? He turns into a superstar when someone is injured and carries the team? He can guard four positions? A good point forward like Hedo?
I would like to know who is praising Tayshaun so much because the media certainly doesn’t.

@"new joel"
I very much suggest changing your commenting name. Maybe Joel and a last name first initial, or a middle name, or something like that. We all know Joel very well here, and it is quite confusing for us as we don’t know who is who. Maybe on your next comment, add that? Hit the blue “change” button next to your name under “leave reply”. It’ll save plenty of confusion!

as for Tayshaun being “underrated”, I’ll go point by point:
A consistent 14 points, 5 boards and a couple assists isn’t good enough? The fact that he hasn’t missed a game in 6 years?

Absolutely not good enough— because it doesn’t extend into the playoffs. I don’t care how many regular season games you play in a row, but if you only average 3.75 points and 3.5 rebounds in 32 minutes a game in the playoffs (on 25.9% shooting), you have no right starting for your team.

That isn’t a new trend. The season ending series before that one, against Boston in 2008, he put up 10 and 4 on 32% shooting. The season ending series in 2007? 24% shooting across 7 games.

When it comes down to the wire, when we really need him the most, he’s a ghost, a liability. It’s performance like that which goes below people’s expectations of him. By that definition: overrated.

How exactly is Kobe so overrated? He has 4 rings at age 31, which ties him with Shaq, Duncan and Fisher for most by a current player. Regardless of whether his defensive prowess is overstated, he is a good defender, while most other scorers aren’t good defenders. He’s probably the 2nd best at his position all-time. If you’re saying he’s overrated because he’s actually the 2nd or 3rd best player in the world when people claim he’s number one, thats a pretty weak arguement…. Especially when he’s coming off a finals MVP.

@Faux-Joel

8====>

That’s an e-dick. Because I have no life other than on my computer I’m going to have to tell you to eat that one. ;)

“especially the rubio "analyses" are absolutely ridicolous. grow up”

Really? The guy declares for the draft, only to complain that it would be too big of a risk to play in Minnesota, and thereby pisses away their draft pick. This following an Olympic bid that began with his team doing “slant eyes” for the camera.

And I am the one who needs to grow up? Seriously?

@brgulker

Re: Odom

Scottie Pippen? Odom’s best PER season would rate as Pippen’s 9th best. And Odom has spent half his career with the Clippers and Heat.

Re: Biedrins

“Would Biedrins care less about rebounding on a different squad?”

No.

“Would his per-minute rebounding get worse on aanother team?”

If that team already featured a good rebounder at the 4, yes. How could it not? Rebounding rate is a finite concept. You cannot “create” rebounds. They are a function of the game action.

“Further, it’s not as if you can blame Andris for never touching the ball in GS, can you?”

Absolutely. He can’t shoot. So unless he gets the ball in the immediate vicinity of the basket, there is little reason to pass to him.

“And how is Kaman overrated? If healthy, he’s a walking double double.”

Kaman proves my point. He had a big year when Elton Brand went down, only to come back to Earth once Marcus Camby showed up. In turn, Camby took off the moment Kaman went down with injury.

“So Kaman can’t score in the post like Ewing or Olajuwon. But who cares?”

The more salient point is that he can’t score like Andrew Bynum or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. You are giving up a lot for those rebounds, and if they’re fools gold, maybe that explains why these David Lee types always wind up on bad teams.

“He can score garbage buckets and grab rebounds. What more do you want in a 7-footer?”

Defense and post moves for starters. Neither of which Biedrins provides.

I’ll be looking for ways to test my theory this season.

Kevin,

I think you missed my point about Odom, which was a very specific one: Odom’s individual numbers suffer because of diminishing returns. My point was not to say that Odom is as good as Pippen (I don’t think he is); rather, my point was to say that Odom is taking one for the team, so to speak, because he’s on the same team as Bryant and Gasol (two very productive and also high-usage players). Therefore, his statistical totals aren’t daunting. He is, however, very efficient and still very productive.

Futhermore, he’s compensated accordingly, don’t you think? In order to qualify as overrated, one has to be rated very highly. He’s the third option on a championship team, and he’s paid like it. To me, that doesn’t sound overrated.

As a bit of an aside, I think PER has some serious limitations, but that’s a bit beside the point — because PER or any of the other metrics would still demonstrate that Pippen > Odom.

If that team already featured a good rebounder at the 4, yes. How could it not? Rebounding rate is a finite concept. You cannot "create" rebounds. They are a function of the game action.

Right, if Biedrins were paired with a dominant four, his rebounding numbers would go down — diminishing returns. But he would still rebound the basketball well. If there’s one thing that proves true in statistics, I think it’s this: good rebounders are good rebounders, regardless of their teammates. In other words, if you look at statistics, the general rule would be that good rebounders tend to rebound well, regardless of who their teammates are (there are obviously exceptions).

Honestly, that’s not really an opinion; that’s just what happens in the NBA. Good rebounders rebound regardless of who their teammates are.

P.S. Biedrins can shoot a mid-range jumper, can’t he? Or am I wrong about that?

Defense and post moves for starters. Neither of which Biedrins provides.

I didn’t say he did. My comment about “What more do you want..” was about Kaman, not Biedrins. Big men with post moves and defense are hard to find; I’d fall all over myself to have one on our team. I don’t think Kaman’s that guy, but if he’s healthy, I think he’s worth his contract.

The more salient point is that he can’t score like Andrew Bynum or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. You are giving up a lot for those rebounds, and if they’re fools gold, maybe that explains why these David Lee types always wind up on bad teams.

First, I have no idea what you mean by “David Lee types.” Lee’s per 36 averages are: 14 points, 11.6 boards, on over 56% shooting. Are you honestly trying to sell the idea that the Knicks are as bad as they are/have been because of him (And not say, Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford, Marbury, et al)?

Second, how is Z better than Kaman? For their careers, Kaman’s FG% > Z’s. I haven’t seen Z make a post move in 3 years (his points are almost exclusively scored off of LeBron), and Z can barely run up the floor, let alone be a stellar defender. He manages to block more shots, which is a point in his favor, though.

I won’t for a second dispute the idea that Bynum is better than Kaman — I agree with you there.

Third, two case studies from our own beloved Pistons:

1) Would we have won a Chip without Ben Wallace?
2) Is it merely coincidence that Dennis Rodman won so many championships?

Is David Lee either of those players? No, not nearly, but he’s got at least some of the same stuff in his game.

Personally, I think David Lee is a wonderful example of my argument earlier, that perceived talent can skew perception of value. David Lee doesn’t look “talented.” He has no post moves to speak of; his game’s not flashy; he’s blue collar; etc. But year after year, he is a top-tier rebounder and scores a good number of points with incredible efficiency.

If you watch him play, you might wonder, “How does he do that?” (But not in a good way, more like, how does a guy with his limitations manage to accomplish all that?). If you watch Kobe play, you might wonder, “How does he do that?” (As in, holy shyte, that was amazing, how could any human being actually do what he just did?!?!).

At the end of the day, Lee’s 2 point garbage bucket is worth just as many points as Kobe’s up and under 360 between the defenders fallaway. Yet, the latter is almost always perceived as more valuable. That’s just silly.

And right on cue, Bucks’ Diary has a very interesting post on the “”http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/10/the-hidden-value-of-joel-pryzbilla.html" rel="nofollow">Hidden Value of Joel Pryzbilla " (Hint, it’s rebounding).

“P.S. Biedrins can shoot a mid-range jumper, can’t he? Or am I wrong about that? "

Arguably the worst in the business. 98% of his shots come right by the basket. I agree that he is a good rebounder. I think the fact that he is the ONLY rebounder on his team exaggerates this fact.

As a result, the advanced stats make the guy out to be a borderline all-star, which I don’t think he is.

Here’s some food for thought. If we look at PER, a whopping 15 out of 67 players register a PER of 18 or higher. Look at the numbers for the other positions.

PG: 11 out of 63
SG: 10 out of 74
SF: 6 out of 67
PF: 15 out of 75

I agree that he is a good rebounder. I think the fact that he is the ONLY rebounder on his team exaggerates this fact.

Right, sorta the opposite of diminishing returns. I understand what you’re saying.

The rub for me is this:

Rebounding is important, in principle, but it’s the stat I trust the least when assessing a player’s value.

What does that mean for Dennis Rodman and Ben Wallace (as two easy examples for Stons fans)? And honestly, I think the article I linked above has some very interesting points in that regard.

And specifically with respect to Biedrins, what would GS be without that guy? Obviously, he’s not a borderline All-Star, for the reasons you mentioned, but in my mind, that doesn’t mean he’s not productive (and in reality, wildly so) for his current team. Take Biedrins away from GS, and they’re god awful, I think.

A semi-reasonable list. I’m pretty sure you included Kobe and possibly Pierce just for your own amusement and to piss certain people off, so I won’t criticize those inclusions. As for Carmelo, I think you may actually be sincere, and if so, you’re just plain wrong. He’s as difficult a cover as there is in the league, and I defy you to find somebody who is better to give the ball to in the final seconds with a game on the line.

He’s as difficult a cover as there is in the league, and I defy you to find somebody who is better to give the ball to in the final seconds with a game on the line.

Last year, Carmelo Anthony shot 44% from the field. That’s bad for an NBA player, let alone a “superstar,” let alone one of the most difficult covers in the game. If he’s such a tough cover, then why does he shoot so poorly? If he’s such a tough cover, shouldn’t he be able to get himself a lot of open shots (and then presumably make them)?

As to your second point:
LeBron James, Kobe, Dwayne Wade, Mr. Big Shot, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili …. and on and on. Maybe even Ben Gordon?

LOL!!

derrick rose getting way way way way underated heere .what are you talking bout son?? ima pistons fan and f the cows but rose is legit son .

I’m with John here. D-Rose is a complete stud. He’ll learn how to play D and he’ll develop an outside shot, just like Lebron did. But everything is already there— dude passes well, can get his shot whenever he wants it, and is without a doubt the best athlete at the PG that I think the NBA’s ever seen. Absolutely mind-bogglingly explosive. Massive ups. Faster than a speeding bullet. ALREADY clutch. What more do you want from a a 19-year old? I’m convinced he’s going to be absolutely transcendent and abhor the fact that once again, one of those players is in our own division (Jordan, Lebron).

Pierce overrated? Who has a 94% HOF probability according to basketball reference which is 11th among active players and 56th all time? 40th all time career PER? Not a fan of metrics? How about his finals ring and finals MVP, clutch performances (41 points in game 7 of the eastern conference semi finals in 08 against Lebron) also hitting 11 game winners and assisting 9 since 03-04 http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm. Again, Pierce overrated? please.

I’d say Pierce should probably be the very first entry of that list. At least Hedo can say he’s almost an average small forward…

“This following an Olympic bid that began with his team doing "slant eyes" for the camera.”

yea, right

rubio is overrated, because the spanish national team (which is not “his” team, he is 18 for christs sake) made a stupid picture

you seem to run out of arguments.

rubio is over-rated because he gets lots of praise from national media simply because they want him to be a great white hope player. he looks like an alright point guard but i dont think hes going to be elite or even as good as someone like rondo.

jay uno, Kevin’s comment was obviously in response to your “grow up.”

If you want examples of how he’s overrated, we could start with the facts that he can’t shoot, is inefficient, and not athletic enough for the NBA and go from there.

Good list except for Kobe. I appreciate that you factor D into your process instead of just looking at fantasy numbers.

Rose is overrated? I just don’t think you’re a Rose fan and no matter what he could have done last year you still would’ve found a way to spin it in a negative direction..

Your view on Rose last years draft.

Derrick Rose – G

No love for the first pick. I think Chicago biffed this draft, passing on a nearly sure-fire big man when they have a competent backcourt already. In college, Rose averaged just under 15, 5 and 5, and shot 33% from three-point range. Top competition or no, does that scream first overall pick to you? As a combo-guard, he’ll need to either rebound or hit the long ball to be very effective. I’m not optimistic.

This sure fire big man wouldn’t happen to be Michael Beasley? Shame on the Bulls for passing on him.What a joke. Rose rookie season is decent? I would like for you to name me a player who played Rose’s position at HIS AGE or younger, and did as good or better than him, that is not a HOF or on track to become one? I’ll be waiting but I doubt you respond. Good day.

For whatever reason, Anthony does have extraordinary success with end of game shots, relative to his overall performance. Not really sure how to explain that, and I’m not sure my explanation would speak all that well of him.

As for Pierce, I am a fan of metrics. Hence me saying that he used to be underrated (when his metrics were excellent). It’s the fact that nobody is noticing his performance has slipped.

“This sure fire big man wouldn’t happen to be Michael Beasley? "

He outperformed Rose last year, but in fewer minutes. That said, Beasley seems to be more of a case than I thought.

“I would like for you to name me a player who played Rose’s position at HIS AGE or younger, and did as good or better than him, that is not a HOF or on track to become one?”

Larry Hughes.

Re: Carmelo

One minor quibble, Kevin. You cite his 44% shooting. That certainly isn’t very good. However, I think the more accurate stat to use would be True Shooting , which accounts for free throws and three pointers. From a preliminary look at Basketball Reference.com, that doesn’t help Anthony that much. He’s not among the top 50 active players in career TS or FG%. For some reason the season finder tool on Basketball Reference (which is amazing, by the way) isn’t working for me, so I can’t dig more than that.

As an aside, Anthony’s shooting accuracy declined this season (FG%: 44.3, TS%: 53.2) to about where he was his second season. His prior three seasons were much better (averaging FG%: 48.3; TS%: 56.1).

Anthony’s best season was really 2007-08, not 2008-09. His usage, rebounding, turnover, and assist numbers were pretty similar across the board, but the shooting decline was what made the difference.

That Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Paul Pierce, ‘Sheed and Ricky Rubio could be on this list just proves how unreasonable you are. Kobe has 4 rings, averaged 35 freakin’ points per game one season, has been the best player in the freakin’ league for God knows how long….how could you say that with a straight face? Maybe he’s overrated NOW, but a) you didn’t say that and b) he’s still one of the best players in the league and certainly top 5 in the NBA over Tim Duncan, who’s playing out the season with a knee brace!

Lamar Odom is ridiculous. One year he averages 11 RPG, one year he averages 6 APG, and every year his +/- is off the charts. Don’t tell me about PER. Steven Hill’s PER last year? 83. PER is a waste of a statistic. Such a statistic puts LeBron ahead of MJ automatically. It’s ridiculous.

Paul Pierce’s stats went down BECAUSE HE’S SHARING THE ROCK WITH KG AND RAY ALLEN, you dimwit! He’s been giving people 25/5/5 for God knows how long, has been equipped with crap until KG…but hey, LeBron’s a monster and he’s never won anything even with Mo Williams and Z and his huge supporting cast. Mhm.

And come on! How many PF’s have ever knocked down more than 100 3’s in one season at 36% or better and averaged a respectable 8 RPG? The answer? Dirk, Antoine, Antawn, Troy Murphy and Sheed, all time. His defense is ridiculous. He’s also the baddest trash-talker in the land! How could you say no to that kind of trash-talkin’?

Ricky Rubio is tops in APG in Spanish League. Almost nobody averages as many PPG in Spanish League as him. He shoots 40% from 3.

I mean, the inaccuracies are ridiculous. Who let you blog? Seriously!

Carmelo Anthony (2009 playoffs, 16 games)

27pts – 6rbd – 4ast – 1.7spg – 45% – 83%ft (9 attempts/gm)

This is a max player, in every sense of the word, and worth every penny. IMO of course. I watched every minute of the playoffs last year (sans Heat/Hawks; blegh), and Carmelo looked like a top 5 player in the entire league. And my god was he clutch.

“Maybe he’s overrated NOW, but a) you didn’t say that”

That’s implied when you write in the present tense.

“Tim Duncan, who’s playing out the season with a knee brace! "

Wearing a knee brace does not make one a worse player.

“Don’t tell me about PER. Steven Hill’s PER last year? 83.”

That’s because he played two minutes of basketball. Is Slugging a waste of a statistic if some rookie goes 1 for 2 with one HR in a season, giving him a SLG % of 2.000?

“Paul Pierce’s stats went down BECAUSE HE’S SHARING THE ROCK WITH KG AND RAY ALLEN, you dimwit!”

Then why does he have fewer assists with no change in his turnover ratio?

“The answer? Dirk, Antoine, Antawn, Troy Murphy and Sheed, all time. "

a) There is no chance Sheed does that this year. Again, this is about the present.

b) If your points of comparison are Antoine Walker and Troy Murphy, I rest my case.

I’m so confused as to which Joel is which now.

I agree with most of this list apart from Kobe. I think he belongs in the top 3 conversation along with Lebron and CP3. Dwight and Wade are certainly great players but I still put Bryant ahead of them.

Larry Hughes did the same thing as Rose as a rookie? The Larry Hughes that averaged 9.1ppg 3.4reb and 1ast in his rookie season, That is comparable to Rose’s rookie season? Really?

Oh and for the rookie there’s probably not a Miami fan out there who believes that Beasely had a better rookie season than Rose. I can see if you say, if he had gotten legit minutes he possibly could have put up better numbers, but you said HE DID, when the numbers, wins, and impact obviously are in favor of Rose.

You have nothing backing up your claim, but your obvious dislike for the player before he even stepped on an NBA court.

For the record maybe you need to re-evalutate what it is you do when evaluating young talented PG’s.. If you couldn’t tell how special Deron Williams was after his second season, in fact I’m not surprised one bit, that you seem to be far off on Rose.

Your review on Deron Williams in 07

PG – Deron Williams

Deron is a top-10 point guard, but the assumption seems to be that he will emerge as a superstar this year. At 23, there is room for modest improvement, but he is no sure thing for stardom, and I would take Chris Paul in a heartbeat. I defy you to explain how his career trajectory is substantially different from, say, Andre Miller.

Couldn’t see the difference between he and Andre Miller in year 2? Really? I guess one player having range, and superior ball-handling skills and passing skills, are not obvious enough.

It all makes sense now, of course you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to young PG play.

@Don:

I hate to break this to you, but Andre Miller and Deron Williams have almost identical career stats:

evidence:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=ZIhvh

You are correct that Williams has better range, but aside from that, they are pretty much the same player (They literally have the exact same career PER).

I hate to break this to you, but Andre Miller and Deron Williams have almost identical career stats

Bazinga!

“Larry Hughes did the same thing as Rose as a rookie? The Larry Hughes that averaged 9.1ppg 3.4reb and 1ast in his rookie season, That is comparable to Rose’s rookie season? Really?”

Yep. He put up his number in far fewer minutes, but his PER was actually slightly higher, and the numbers per 40 minutes are quite similar. When you play more minutes, you put up larger numbers, which is not the same thing as putting up better numbers, nor is it the same as outperforming.

“Couldn’t see the difference between he and Andre Miller in year 2?”

Player A

PPG: 15.8
APG: 8.0
A/TO: 2.5/1
SPG: 1.5
FG%: 54.1%
PER: 20.1

Player B

PPG: 16.2
APG: 9.3
A/TO: 3.0/1
SPG: 1.0
FG%: 53.5%
PER: 17.1
TS%: 53.5%

Now, without looking it up, tell me which Year 2 belongs to which player.

Early in their careers, the players were almost identical. The question is whether Deron can continue to keep it up. Miller wore down somewhat (going to the Clippers certainly didn’t help).

And, yeah, I’ll go ahead and stand by the Chris Paul comment.

rondo can´t shoot, kidd can´t (or couldn´t) shoot, rose can´t shoot, but rubio is overrated, because he can´t shoot

this guy has the floor vision and passing skills of kidd or nash.

remember he is 18. point guards get better with age. see nash, steve

i think its better for his development to play for barcelona, than for the timberwolves. i mean come on its the timberwolves…

“point guards get better with age. see nash, steve”

Sebastian Telfair agrees.

how dare you include Paul pierce in your list? are you nutts? or you’re just a retard trying to look cool by blogging and making your self an expert?
come on. Paul pierce is one of the most underrated players of all time. if early in his career he was paired with a decent center, he might have more rings now. check it out, pierce, walker, and add a decent bigman (an all star bigman)? they might have reigned the east!
if you didn’t include HeDO, your list was a complete shit…
i think its your mistake that you didn’t include lebron james as the most overrated player of all time. a sore loser! come on, kobe is, and still, far more superior than lebron.

Yet you don’t put any Pistons on that list. A certain center and combo guard come to mind…

this guy has the floor vision and passing skills of kidd or nash.

Crediting a player who you’ve probably seen play once or twice with having “floor vision” and “passing skills” (want to get a little more subjective with the metrics?) with two of the best point guards of a generation, one of whom has won two MVPs. Fun With Hyperbole!

“rondo can´t shoot, kidd can´t (or couldn´t) shoot, rose can´t shoot, but rubio is overrated, because he can´t shoot”

Kidd shot over 50% from two-point range at Cal. Rondo shot over 50% from two-point range at Kentucky. Derrick Rose shot over 50% from two-point range at Memphis.

Rubio is 33% on two-pointers between the Euroleauge and Olympics. Here’s Hollinger on Rubio

“We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio — just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier — but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.

“Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics — as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn’t bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he’s a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don’t improve, he’ll make Kidd look like Rick Barry”

@ Joel:

D-Rose is a complete stud. He’ll learn how to play D and he’ll develop an outside shot, just like Lebron did. But everything is already there– dude passes well, can get his shot whenever he wants it, and is without a doubt the best athlete at the PG that I think the NBA’s ever seen. Absolutely mind-bogglingly explosive. Massive ups. Faster than a speeding bullet. ALREADY clutch. What more do you want from a a 19-year old? I’m convinced he’s going to be absolutely transcendent and abhor the fact that once again, one of those players is in our own division (Jordan, Lebron).

There is a lot of future tense in that paragraph.

There’s a big difference from what he could/will probably become and what he is now. What is he now is good, not great. I think he will become very good, but he’s not yet.

This is a max player, in every sense of the word, and worth every penny. IMO of course. I watched every minute of the playoffs last year (sans Heat/Hawks; blegh), and Carmelo looked like a top 5 player in the entire league. And my god was he clutch.

Carmelo had a good playoff run, so he’s worth max money? I don’t get it, especially after several people have demonstrated how poorly he has shot the basketball over the course of his career.

@jay_uno: Rubio is overrated because he hasn’t even played a minute of basketball in the USA, but people like yourself are heralding him as the coming of the embodiment of the perfect PG. Obviously, players from overseas can have tremendous success in the NBA — but it’s much more difficult to predict how success overseas translates than success in the NCAA translates (and the latter is pretty difficult in itself).

It’s absurd to guarantee that Rubio will succeed in the NBA — absurd in the literal definition of that word. There is absolutely zero evidence from which to make a case for or against him. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t; time will tell. But as I metnioned earlier, the conversation degenerates quickly into exactly your comment: “this guy has the floor vision and passing skills of kidd or nash.” You’ve got nothing from which to argue but a handful of subjective impressions, but you still don’t hesitate to put him in the HoF. Absurd.

seeing paul pierce on this list makes me sick, nobody wanted to give him the light of day for 10 years of playing on awful teams and still making several all-star teams. then doc rivers came in and he totally changed his game from someone who had to have the ball in his hands at all times to more a team oriented game, playing both ends. then he went on to be the leading scorer on a 66 and 62 win team (all while taking less shots and shooting a higher %), oh and by the way he outlplayed lebron and kobe on the way to becoming finals mvp and winning a title in 2008.

overated? HUHHHH????

paul pierce was found to be on all 4 of these lists compiled by Neil Paine at basketball reference.

• The players who had the worst collective offensive teammates throughout their careers;

• The players who, individually, played furthest above their teammates’ abilities;

• The players who had the worst overall set of teammates (offense and defense) for their careers;

• The players who did the most to improve the number of games their teams won based on the quality of their teammates. (Or, as Paine puts it, the players who "single-handedly helped their teammates reach new heights.")

thank you, case closed (kudos to celticshub)

Ben Gordon should be on that list. He’s just as overrated as the people on the list.

seeing paul pierce on this list makes me sick, nobody wanted to give him the light of day for 10 years of playing on awful teams and still making several all-star teams.

Kevin mentioned that in the post. Did you bother reading it, or are you just an indignant Bostonian?

then doc rivers came in and he totally changed his game from someone who had to have the ball in his hands at all times to more a team oriented game, playing both ends.

Hey Real Joel, can we get a “Paul Pierce goes both ways” joke here?

then he went on to be the leading scorer on a 66 and 62 win team (all while taking less shots and shooting a higher %),

Actually, he shot much better in 05-06. In fact, pretty much all of his numbers were better that year and have steadily declined. His PER dropped from 23.6 to 17.7 – I’m not particularly a proponent of PER, I see it as one number of many to take into account in a player’s measurement, but…DAMN! That’s a big drop! That might suggest that Paul Pierce isn’t the same player he once was, and the continual drop we’ve seen suggests he might only be an average player this year…

oh and by the way he outlplayed lebron and kobe on the way to becoming finals mvp and winning a title in 2008.

The main point of Kevin’s post was that since adding KG, Pierce has fallen off while his perception has grown, thus making him overrated.

Case closed? HUHHHH???? Go back to Celticshub.

@shinons:
+1

brgulker says:

“Last year, Carmelo Anthony shot 44% from the field. That’s bad for an NBA player, let alone a "superstar," let alone one of the most difficult covers in the game. If he’s such a tough cover, then why does he shoot so poorly? If he’s such a tough cover, shouldn’t he be able to get himself a lot of open shots (and then presumably make them)?”

I say:

Carmelo had a crappy shooting year last year. So what. He is a career 46% shooter. LeBron is a career 47% shooter. Besides, his shooting numbers, if anything, are probably a reflection of him learning to fit into his team’s offense rather than being the offense last year—and his team was fantastic at least in part because of this change. Also, ignoring numbers entirely, if you don’t think that he is one of the most polished and versatile scorers in the league then you are crazy. Defensively he is admittedly still a work in progress, but nobody is overrating him for his defense. Moreover, there really are not many elite scorers who are also great defensively.

brgulker says (re: who is better at taking last second shots):

“LeBron James, Kobe, Dwayne Wade, Mr. Big Shot, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili …. and on and on. Maybe even Ben Gordon”

I say:

All except for LeBron have a tougher time getting off a shot against a concerted team defensive effort than Carmelo. And Carmelo is still a far better outside shooter than LeBron, which is often what a last-second shot comes down to, especially if the defense is solid. Lastly, as Kevin admits, the results speak for themselves. He is money in critical end-of-game situations. I bet nba-types would put him at or near the top of a very short list of who they would want to have on their team take the last shot.

P.S. As a Suns fan (by collegiate affiliation; a Pistons fan by birth), Ginobili’s first name is actually “F-ing.” As in “Please don’t let Ginobili touch the ball…what are you doing? Don’t let him shoot it…hit him with something! NOOOOOOOOOOO! F-ing Ginobili.”

I agree with this list other than Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, and Carmelo Anthony. (Derrick Rose to a lesser degree) Kobe Bryant is the best player in the NBA. Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony are the 3rd and 2nd best SF’s in the league respectively. But, just calling Kobe Bryant the 6th best player in the league makes this post completely terrible. I can only hope you were joking…

shinons, if all you are going to do is reference those nonsense statistics of hollinger’s that’s fine. hollinger has shot himself in the foot enough times with his statistics that if you still want to put all your analysis on that than that’s your issue. all I know about PER is I just looked, and nate robinson is listed above rajon rondo, enough said.

but what I said was that he lead the team in scoring while shooting less (true) and at a higher percentage. paul pierce’s true shooting percentage was higher in both the past 2 seasons then they EVER were prior to. he shot better from 3 and at the line in flat %s.

I did read the post, but sawyer makes no mention that he means overrated currently, just that as a player they are overrated, in that regard I have to take into consideration PP’s whole career, the vast majority of which he was vastly underappreciated.

convenient you don’t counter the 4 most convincing “statistics” of my post.

I’ll gladly go back to celtics hub and leave this type of garbage writing behind.

I’ll gladly go back to celtics hub and leave this type of garbage writing behind.

Why do you have everything in lower case except the word “I”?

People from Boston are weird.

You should quit analyzing basketball. Most those players may not have the greatest efficency numbers, but they lead their teams to success. Check Carmelo’s, Pierce’s and Kobe’s number in fourth quarters and tell me if their overrated.

Not a bad article, but All Star selections seem fairly meaningless as far as assessing a player’s worth, but you manage to use this pointless “stat” as both a good thing (for Shaq) and a reason to overrate Mo Williams

kobe bryant overrated?? anytime some reporter goes around the league and asks PLAYERS who is the best, their answer is almost always kobe bryant.

PLAYERS KNOW THE DEAL

you don’t

“Not a bad article, but All Star selections seem fairly meaningless as far as assessing a player’s worth, but you manage to use this pointless "stat" as both a good thing (for Shaq) and a reason to overrate Mo Williams”

With Shaq, I meant that he registered an all-star caliber season. I didn’t make that at all clear, though, so good call-out.

“Carmelo had a crappy shooting year last year. So what. "

Um… You just dismissed a whole season?

“Also, ignoring numbers entirely, if you don’t think that he is one of the most polished and versatile scorers in the league then you are crazy.”

Agreed. If you dismiss numbers entirely, it is reasonable to conclude that Anthony is one of the most polished and versatile scorers in the league.

“And Carmelo is still a far better outside shooter than LeBron,”

He’s worse. Which, if you think he’s better, then doesn’t that make my case that he’s overrated?

“He is money in critical end-of-game situations.”

Which only account for about 2% of his overall contribution. Points scored in the first quarter count the same as those scored in the fourth.

“all I know about PER is I just looked, and nate robinson is listed above rajon rondo, enough said. "

Rondo is a superior defender. This has nothing to do with what Shinons posted.

“I did read the post, but sawyer makes no mention that he means overrated currently,”

That’s implied when you write in the present tense, particularly so when you contrast the present to the past.

“kobe bryant overrated?? anytime some reporter goes around the league and asks PLAYERS who is the best, their answer is almost always kobe bryant.” -phantom5551

“But, just calling Kobe Bryant the 6th best player in the league makes this post completely terrible. I can only hope you were joking…” -Joey

Kobe Bryant is the most Jordan-like player in the NBA. Since Jordan was the best player in his day (and arguably the best of all-time), Kobe must be the best player now. Right?

Sigh This is how Kobe became overrated. People become enamored of wing players. I can understand. It looks more challenging, more flashy, to score from the perimeter. Making a pull-up fadeaway jumper is worth the same as making a simple hook shot. Because the hook doesn’t look as difficult, people undervalue it.

In the last ten years, Kobe Bryant was the #1 or #2 guy on a team that made SIX Finals and won four. It doesn’t matter that he’s a wing player. If he were a forward, people would still say he’s the best. I don’t think Kobe’s overrated— I think he’s rated correctly. People say he’s either “the best” or “one of the best” players in the League. He is. The proof is in the shiny gold pudding, IMO.

In the last ten years, Kobe Bryant was the #1 or #2 guy on a team that made SIX Finals and won four. It doesn’t matter that he’s a wing player. If he were a forward, people would still say he’s the best. I don’t think Kobe’s overrated– I think he’s rated correctly. People say he’s either "the best" or "one of the best" players in the League. He is. The proof is in the shiny gold pudding, IMO.

Joel, Kobe has been a great player, no doubt. But look at Kevin’s initial point:
“There is no way in the world I’d rather have him than LeBron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan or a healthy Dwyane Wade (which, I think Dwyane Wade’s new nickname should be "A Healthy Dwyane Wade"… AHDW for short? Who’s with me?) In other words, he only makes the NBA Top 5 as an injured reserve. The fact that Kobe vs. LeBron articles are even written is absurd.”

It’s not about the last 10 years, it’s about this year. This year, would you take Kobe on the Pistons over LeBron, Howard, Paul, Duncan, or AHDW? I wouldn’t. So is Kobe, who is portrayed as on par with LeBron as the best player in the league, really even a top 5 player at this point?

I’d argue that he’s even overrated in his legacy, but I’ll keep on the point at hand and avoid getting into that right now.

@Shinons

To answer your question, yes, I would want Kobe on my team over any other player in the NBA right now. Why? Because he WINS. I don’t give a shit about advanced metrics, PER, winshare, whothefuckcaresstatistic-x— it’s all about WINNING. What has Chris Paul done? Nothing. Dwight? Nothing. Lebron? Nothing. D-Wade? I honestly think Kobe might have more quality years left than the poor guy. Only guy on that list I would want on the Pistons over Kobe is Duncan, only because he perfectly fills a specific need of ours. I’m of the mind that you can’t argue with winning. If it’s truly all that matters, than it’s absolutely ludicrous to say that Kobe’s overrated. He consistently gets his team to where all other teams aspire to be. Whether or not he averages a triple-double like LBJ is completely irrelevant.

To answer your question, yes, I would want Kobe on my team over any other player in the NBA right now. Why? Because he WINS. I don’t give a shit about advanced metrics, PER, winshare, whothefuckcaresstatistic-x– it’s all about WINNING.

The Lakers’ record for the three years between Shaq and Pau: 34-48, 45-37, and 42-40.

Those teams were beyond horrible, talent-wise (um, Smush parker is your starting PG?), and yet somehow Kobe almost single-handedly beat Nash’s peak-era Suns. Like ALL superstars, if you don’t have help, you don’t win. See: Chris Paul, D-Wade, Lebron, Dwight, etc.

Joel, then what makes Kobe any different than the rest of those guys? If you can’t be anything better than an 8 seed without an elite big man in his prime, then are you really a winner?

kinda shot yourself in the foot, there, joel….

Not really, because I never said any of those other guys are overrated. I think they’re all incredible, just like Kobe. What puts him over the top for me is that he does it, consistently, when it matters. The argument here is that Kobe either is or isn’t overrated, not that these other guys aren’t incredible (they are). People say Kobe’s the best, or one of the best. He has a championship, two Finals appearances, and one MVP award in the last two years. That, to me, proves that he’s the best, or least right at the top with maybe 2 or 3 other guys. I really can’t see it any differently. Statistics shmatistics. The guy does it when it counts, always. Trust me, once Lebron, who is a superior individual basketball player to anyone that has ever existed IMO, wins his first championship (of many), he will without a doubt and unequivocally be the best player in the league. But until he does that, he’s got a permanent position as an also-ran up to this point.

That’s fair enough. Goes back to that point about where a person is “rated” being individual perception. The wide perception is Kobe is one of two players in the game, you agree with that perception – I don’t buy your logic, but that doesn’t really matter if the bottom line is that you’d take Kobe over pretty much any other player in the league.

I’ll take any of those other 5 over Kobe because I believe if you stick any of them on a mediocre team, they’re going to make them a playoff team and if you put any of them on the Pistons they’d be a Finals contender. I don’t believe that about Kobe. You do. No problemo.

Word.

“[Kobe] has a championship, two Finals appearances, and one MVP award in the last two years. That, to me, proves that he’s the best, or least right at the top with maybe 2 or 3 other guys.”

“Lebron… is a superior individual basketball player to anyone that has ever existed IMO”

Um, if LeBron is the superior player, doesn’t that mean Kobe isn’t the best? I know you qualify it with “individual” but isn’t that all they are. The Lakers last year were superior combination of basketball players, but Kobe was only one part of that. He can’t control the skills of his own teammates.

“Um, if LeBron is the superior player…”

My exact quote was “individual” player. The stats don’t lie. He’s done things nobody has ever done. Again, the argument is about whether or not Kobe is overrated. People say he’s either THE best, or top 2. I’d say what he’s done recently earns that praise completely. It’s a lot like the “Manning vs. Brady” argument (pre-Colts Super Bowl). Manning was easily the best statistical quarterback the league had ever seen, but when it mattered, Tom Brady was clearly the man. Then Manning won the SB and all the early praise was validated. This is how I feel about Kobe vs. Lebron. People said Brady was overrated because he didn’t put up the gaudy statistics that Manning did, but the guy did it when it mattered. That’s what they get paid for. Not to make stat geeks happy in GOAT arguments. To win. Kobe has done that. Lebron has not.

OK, that makes sense. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

So, when the stats back Kobe, they matter. When they don’t, statistics, shmatistics. By your logic, we should rate Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili above Kobe, and certainly rate Tim Duncan ahead of him.

If you swap LeBron for Kobe, the Lakers win the next five rings.

“Sebastian Telfair agrees.”

maybe i should have said: good point guards get better by age

“Crediting a player who you’ve probably seen play once or twice with having "floor vision" and "passing skills" (want to get a little more subjective with the metrics?) with two of the best point guards of a generation, one of whom has won two MVPs. Fun With Hyperbole!”

lol. i live in europe. i watch rubio play since he was 15 or 16. you have probably seen him play the olympics and have checked some euroleague stats and think you know something about this kid. hilarious.

btw stats are for people who don´t know shit about the game, but wanna sound smart…

we should continue this conversation in 5 years, when rubio is destroying nba defences for breakfast

btw stats are for people who don´t know shit about the game, but wanna sound smart…

I lollered.

So, when the stats back Kobe, they matter. When they don’t, statistics, shmatistics.

Not really sure what stats back Kobe other than the championships, Finals appearances, 1st Team Defense awards, MVP… other people have put up better game stats the last couple years, for sure. Again though, for the umpteenth time, my point is that people say he’s overrated, when I don’t see how it’s possible. If people were like, “Greatest of All Time,” then, yeah, without out a doubt he’d be overrated. But people don’t say that. People say, “Best right now.” I think that recent history pretty much proves this. He’s worth every penny he makes, he’s won his championship sans Shaq, he ups his game in the playoffs (last two years: 30/5/5/2/1), plays better D than any of the other superstar wings, he posted his fewest turnovers since he became a starter in ‘99… I just don’t know how he can be overrated. I get the hate on Kobe. He’s a douche, without a doubt. Like Birdman said, we’ll have to agree to disagree.

Not really sure what stats back Kobe other than the championships, Finals appearances, 1st Team Defense awards, MVP…

None of those are statistics, especially the Defense and MVP awards — those are simply reflective of the perceptions of the media (which are almost always not grounded in any type of statistical analysis).

Personally, I’m not sure Kobe even makes my top 5 in terms of current best players: LBJ > CP3 > Dwight Howard > Dwayne Wade > (maybe) Kobe. To me, it’s not even clear that Kobe is the best player on his own team — the most talented? Absolutely, but I think there’s a very convincing case to be made that Pao is actually more productive (in spite of less “talent”).

In order to classify a player overrated, that particular player should be getting at least close to max salary.
How you rate I have no idea.
Hedo played for 6 – 7 mill a season for 5 years.
He wasnt supoposed to be the saviour.
Then again Rashard was. He gets the max and then some.
what has he done? Nothing.
Jameer Nelson is overrated. Although he is not a max salary player, he acts like he is. That puts him right in the smack middle of your rating scale.
How can you even think of the league without kobe. He is the best thing that has ever walked on the floor.
What does Prince have to do to get some respect around here?
Carmelo; good god, why dont you rinse before you even pronounce his name. He is one of the reasons people watch NBA.
Paul Pierce; Do you think it is easy to be the team leader when that teams has Ray allen and Garnett??? Still he does a great job.
He too deserves some respect.

Other than Hedo, Kobe, Prince, Melo, I pretty much agree with you.
But still you have to consider their salary situation before squeezing names in your overrated list.
for instance, last year AI was in that category with more than 20 mill. He messed up Denver than came to Detroit and messed the team chemistry alltogether.

And the last but not the least, Vince Carter.
He is the most overrated player of them all.
He has done nothing but complain. Hasnt been able to cary this teams to the second round. Once he did and then he chose to go his highschool reunion right before the most important game and slept on the floor afterwards.
He gets injured when a player walks by him a bit faster than usual.

No doubt LeBron is better then Kobe. I was never a KB fan to begin with. LeBron has so much goin for him right now…anyone going to check out his More Than A Game movie? I’m stoked for it…check out this site I came across…all about LeBron: http://www.statefarm.com/lebron/

Melo isn’t that bad..come on..
I agree on Biedrins,Odom and Mo Williams,but:
Rubio is a P-H-E-N-O-M. He is the kind of guy that you want to coach because he’s always focus and he has got really a big talent,i saw a lot of his matches and he’s really a phenom.But NBA is a different world,so he may will not be an NBA star-i don’t think so-.
Melo is another phenom.He can shoot,he can post,he can do everything in the offensive mid-court.
Turkoglu.4-quarter Hedo.A man who sleeps for 3 quarters,and win the game on his own in the fourth quarter,and this is for you a bad player?..oh come on..
Rasheed Wallace his a tremendous tattical weapon that Danny Ainge have put in River’s hands,if a bigger man covers him,he shoot from outside,if a smaller he can make a turnaround jump shot from the post.
Rose’s rookie season was overrated for sure,but let him learn how to survive in the NBA and he will devastate every PG in the league.
Paul Pierce had a wonderful season,and nobody has never one anything without anothe star!!!!
Kobe.Hope you were joking.

@ClubMed:

“Other than Hedo, Kobe, Prince, Melo, I pretty much agree with you.”

Prince wasn’t on this list.

Two posts of pure subjectivity.

This thread:

124 (now 125) posts of pure subjectivity.

So Kobe the 4 time NBA champion is overrated? That’s his claim? Lets do a little math here.

Pistons have been around since 1941. Kobe entered the league in 1996.

Kobe since 1996 has 4 NBA championships
Pistons as a franchise since 1941 have 3 NBA championships.

What does that say about the Pistons if Kobe is overrated?

Quite honestly, if you don’t think Kobe is better than Chris Paul or Dwight Howard you should find a noose, tie it around your neck and…. well, you get it.

I can understand Lebron and Wade, even though I think neither of them are better..

Whoever made this blog post should just stop watching basketball or offering their awful “analysis”.

little typo there, I was gonna say pierce, said prince. My bad.
I think Prince is the god of all SF’s.
Hedo is the god of all point forwards. how many points F’s are there who can manage 4 when push comes to shove?
Raps made a great deal getting him. Now we ll see how good Bosh is.
He might turn out to be a cheap appliance, like a Bosch blender or a microwave oven, then again he might shine like he never has before with Hedo on the court.
One more thing, as much as I hate the guy, I believe LeBron shouldnt be allowed to play basketball. It looks like a cat playing with his yarn when he is on the court. Lop sided all the way. He doesnt make basketball fun, rather he makes it unwatchable. He can try his luck at cage fights or no bars hold. He looks like the uncle and rest like the nephews. It is that lop sided. Man is a monster. No grace, just sheer force. He belongs in a different category on his own. Overrated players, underrated players, stars and LeBrons. Fortunately that is a one man list.

I like ClubMed. You need to stick around.

Now we ll see how good Bosh is.
He might turn out to be a cheap appliance, like a Bosch blender or a microwave oven, then again he might shine like he never has before with Hedo on the court.

This made me spit out coffee. At work.

He looks like the uncle and rest like the nephews.

And then that made me pee what I had previously drank.

And BTW, I agree on Lebron. He’s not even fun to watch. Like Billy Madison when he’s blasting all those kids in dodgeball.

no bars hold

HA! Like a new improved coachDP.

club med might be sipping the coachdp juice at home.

Yep, sticking with the bad boys and a real NBA franchise would be the best choice for anybody in his right mind.

Should know, I am a Hedo fan.
But way before that I used to pay a sack full of money to watch Laimbeer and his boys through binoculars. You got a big arena dude. Imagine even Laimbeer looked normal from where I used to sit.
Mind you it was kind of difficult to spot Isiah.

This has been a strange thread.

I’d like to borrow that crystal ball of yours sometime, Kevin. If we’re going to play with hypothetical scenarios, I’ll say this: Switch Kobe with LeBron and the Cavs will win the next two championships.

There are three types of lies:

1) Lies.
2) Damn lies.
3) Statistics.

brgulker is either an idiot..

Or his genius is too expansive to comprehend. To say Kobe is not a top 5 player in the league flies in the face of what players, coaches, commentators, and GM’s have been saying all these years.

Kobe overrated? Mr Sawyer: this article only reflects your incompetent knowledge about the game of basketball. Your newspaper overrated you about your ability to make an nba analysis. You should try writing fiction novels! Do yourself a favor and make a career change!

You listed Kobe on your list. But you forgot to say why. If you’re going to post a list trying to be different to get your name out there and be bold, you should put legitimate reasons. On Kobe, I know what youre going to say. Somewhere along the lines of “takes too many shots”“over-rated defender”“can’t win without help”. And there’s something that he has that only few has, thats determination to win. How can Laker beat Magic, yet Cavs can’t beat them? Lack of shooting guard?… whatever. D-Fish is up in age. Don’t see a problem. Kobe knows how to win, Lebron doesn’t. I believe lebron will be great. But right now. you’re off. And you really should explain yourself, cause it makes you look like an idiot.