The Concerns About Rodney Stuckey
As I've said before, Rodney Stuckey might be the happiest of all the Pistons that the west coast trip is behind them. Stuckey shot an abysmal 30% on the trip and capped it off with his lowest scoring output of the season, scoring just eight points against the Suns on Sunday night.
On the season, Stuckey is now shooting 39%, four percentage points lower than what he finished with last year, his second season in the NBA. Many fans believed this, his third, would be the year Stuckey exerted himself as the team's offensive leader and acted the part, too. If you ask fans how they feel about Stuckey after just fourteen games, they'd more than likely express disappointment.
Stuckey's supposed to fill the traded shoes of Chauncey Billups at the point guard position, but he continues to show that maybe he's just a two guard out of position. His assist numbers per 36 minutes are down by nearly two full assists a game this year and he doesn't seem to have the point guard's keen sense of his surroundings when he has the ball and drives to the hoop.
However, if he's going to be a shooting guard, he needs to shoot better than 39%. Chauncey Billups has shot 44% in his career just once (42% career average), but he can get away with that because of the shots he creates for his teammates as their point guard. If Stuckey isn't going to create shots, then he needs to make shots. It's science.
We are seeing some improvements in major areas. He is averaging nearly a full rebound and half a steal more per 36 minutes, and his free throw shooting has improved to 85% so far this year. He's also scoring almost a full point more, but he's also taking more shots.
Next, I looked at his shot chart to try and get an idea where Stuckey's poor shooting totals were coming from. I was pretty surprised to see that his struggles are actually with what should be the easiest shots. He's shooting a head scratching 39% on shots near the basket and a respectable 42% from mid-range. Stuckey's awful 22% from beyond the arc puts his overall percentage down to his season total, but he hasn't been shooting enough from outside to consider that a major liability, in my mind.
As you can see, Stuckey seems to like the right side, and naturally, because he is right handed. His third favorite shot appears to be from the right elbow (which often comes at ill-advised times in my opinion). Let's hope he either gets better with it or falls out of love with it because he's just 7-22 there on the season.
Again, what's most bothersome to me is that he's making just 40% of what are essentially layups. For comparative purposes, Lebron James is hitting those shots at a 71% clip and Will Bynum is making 56% this year. I honestly believe, with his size and strength, Stuckey should be somewhere in the middle of those two. If he gets to that point, he averages 25 points per game and the rest is moot.
So should the Pistons be concerned about Rodney Stuckey?
If people are expecting him to be the next Chauncey Billups, then maybe. He doesn't appear to be improving while serving as the point guard. Although I'll remind you, Chauncey only averaged 3.9 assists his first year with the Pistons and that was his sixth year in the league. Regardless, Stuckey does seem to be improving elsewhere in his game. If he can just somehow find a way to do some extra (contested) mikan layup drills to up that 40% average around the basket up to the 60% range, seeing him shooting the ball might not seem like such a drag after all (that is unless it's outside the arc, but we'll leave that one alone).
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I've said it before...
if we can get Stuckey to pass the ball back out when he drives to the hoop his whole game would open up. Guys wouldn’t be able to collapse in on him as much. His shots would open up and his assist numbers would go up.
Now to be honest, if this type of performance keeps up, a benching might be necessary. Maybe that would get the point across.
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by madpoopz on Nov 24, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Many of his negatives
are a byproduct of the players surrounding him. With Wallace and Jerebko playing the minutes they are, I wouldn’t expect high assist numbers. Neither is an offensive threat. That actually helps the defense collapse on him when he drives. And as madpoopz mentioned, he really needs to stop over committing on his drives. Stop and pop, or kick it out … but again, there’s only 2 other offensive minded players on the court with him in most circumstances. Unfortunately, we lack any real interior post game. There is no big man for him to throw into. On this team, especially with the current injuries, points don’t come easy.
Once Rip and Tay come back into the mix, they should almost instantly allow his assist numbers to increase by 2 …. probably more … but just a 2 assist increase, puts him into the top 10 PG’s for that stat. Currently we’re a mess on offense. Spacing is terrible, and our tempo will also pickup allowing for more offensive plays . I think we’re once again, near the bottom of the list in terms of ‘pace of game’ and number of offensive possessions. Let us get some of our main weapons back, and see how things pan out.
Stuckey may not be that ideal prototypical PG, but neither is he a SG. He’s simply a very good combo guard … one who in my opinion better projects as a PG.
And let’s not forget that this is his 3rd year. His 2nd as a starter. Do not discount though how much of a negative impact last season was for his development. Curry as a HC and the insertion of AI, did nothing to help him. It probably set him back a bit. He commented about how lost and confused he was after last season with all that occurred.
He’s working on his jump shooting. It was never a large part of his game, but he’s getting better. His percentages are off last years pace, but he’s also forcing things more without Rip and Tay, and he’s taking more shots. But he’s also getting the line more, and hitting at a higher%. Better than top 9 amongst all PG’s in FT’s per game, FT’s made and overall FT%. He only trails Jason Kidd in rebounding for PG’s. Also amongst PG’s he’s # 8 in points scored and he’s top 6 in steals.
He does alot of things well. And I think that’s often forgotten. It’s easy to bitch about missed shots and poor decisions. But we also did that when Chauncey was here. Give the kid some time. Surround him with players that allow for him to be better and make less mistakes. He’s not my favorite player, nor do I envision All Star potential from him, but he currently is , and definitely will be, better than some make him out to be.
by Detroit Buckets on Nov 24, 2009 10:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
You make a lot of good points
Thanks for commenting. I’ve typically been a major proponent of his in large part because he’s just in his third year. I don’t plan on changing that stance either.
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by Packey on Nov 24, 2009 10:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
General comments.
Here’s where I got my numbers, if anyone’s interested: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=lUusO
There are plenty of concerns with Stuckey, as well as plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his potential.
But here are my three biggest:
1) Shot volume. For his short career, he is already averaging more shot attempts per 36 than CB. That’s baffling. A young upshoot shooting more than a proven all star? A related number — he’s taking fewer FT’s per 36 as well, and all the kid does is dribble drive the basket.
2) Shooting percentage. You mentioned the raw FG% numbers, but take a peek at the TS% (which takes 3 point and FT’s into consideration). Stuckey’s nowhere close to CB in this regard. But more frustrating is that he doesn’t seem to be making any strides! He hasn’t developed a reliable pull-up jumper or any type of floater in the lane. He gets the ball, puts his head down, and bulls his way to the basket almost every time he touches the ball. He’s one-dimensional and easy to guard as a result.
3) Assists. Yes, he’s trying to cut meat with butter knives given our injuries. But his assist totals and assist% are simply too low for a PG.
So is he a SG? No, because he’s not a good shooter. Is he a PG? No, because he doesn’t have a sense for distributing the ball. Is he a combo-guard? Well, no because he simply doesn’t bring the strengths of either guard position to the table — at least not yet. Here’s hoping that develops with time.
To your main point, Stuckey, I would propose that the primary reasons that his inside shooting % is so low is because most of those shots are contested by multiple defenders. Everyone on the opposing team knows what’s coming, so the defense simply collapses. His “layups” actually end up being more difficult than his jumpers are a result.
by brgulker on Nov 24, 2009 10:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with 99% of what you've said...
But I don’t like TS% in this case because a) Stuckey doesn’t shoot the three nearly as much as Billups b) You can see the discrepancy in FT% by looking at FT%. That leaves raw FG% which is pretty cut & dry, make & attempts.
I completely agree about his layups becoming more difficult and that’s where PG senses need to kick in for him to dish it out to CV or Gordon/Rip/Bynum for an open shot OR wrap it around a defender to Jerebko/Wallace for an easy slam. He doesn’t do that and until he does, these “layups” either a) need to be made or b) not ever attempted. A lot of times I feel like he drives the lane with no clear purpose but to put up a shot with 4 guys hanging on him. That’s fantastic if he gets the call, but he’s so out of control sometimes that the refs haven’t been whistling it nearly enough to warrant those shots. All I’m saying is if he can get that 40% up to about 60% where it should be (and the “layups” will open up if he passes more after driving) then he’s going to be putting up 25 points and possibly top 10 assists numbers for good measure.
I love his potential, but he just doesn’t seem to be improving right now which is all you can ask for from a third year guy. Obviously, there’s plenty of time for that to change.
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by Packey on Nov 24, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
“A lot of times I feel like he drives the lane with no clear purpose but to put up a shot with 4 guys hanging on him. "
Exactly.
by brgulker on Nov 24, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The stats are worrying. He’s still young, though. Let’s not write him off.
by Vic De Zen on Nov 24, 2009 10:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
“But I don’t like TS% in this case because a) Stuckey doesn’t shoot the three nearly as much as Billups b) You can see the discrepancy in FT% by looking at FT%. That leaves raw FG% which is pretty cut & dry, make & attempts.”
Maybe a better comprehensive statistic would be points per shot?
I hear your point, absolutely. I tend to like TS% because it is an attempt to capture why guys like Billups can be very effective scorers, even when their career overall FG% isn’t that great — because it factors in 3’s and FTs. By contrast, TS% also demonstrates, at least IMO, how poor Stuckey’s shooting really is precisely because he doesn’t have a three point shot.
That said, I hear what you’re saying, and I don’t disagree at all. Just some nuances. Good post, thanks for the convo!
by brgulker on Nov 24, 2009 12:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Stuckey....
….will be fine…..His defense has been amazing this year….yes hes struggling with his shot but its early in the season……I repeat his d has been amazing!!!!…..e drives the lane and drwas fouls…..Someone has to do that….he is still learning the point position and that will take time…..Did I mention his D is amazing this year!!!….Once again I repeat he will be fine…..He is a talent and will be fine….Hes alos playing amazing defense this year!!!!……GO PISTONS!!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Nov 24, 2009 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He plays good enough D to guard SGs, so just let him be what he is a SG. Bynum should start at PG. Ben Gordon seems to have a better niche for setting up his teamates so I’d rather see him start at PG than Stuckey.
Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!
by VikesPma on Nov 24, 2009 4:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I've made a decision...
I’m going to make my decision about Stuckey when he’s had an extended amount of time playing with a healthy (or a close to healthy) Rip and/or Tay. When he has the team he’s supposed to be developing with at full strength. I feel he may be overcompensating for their absence. While it would have been a good sign for him to step up and pick up a weaker team, given the setback of last season. Until I see him get some extended playing time with an actual team, I’m holding my judgement.
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by madpoopz on Nov 24, 2009 8:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if
maybe Ben Gordon coming in has stuckey a lil shaken up. Stuckey was pretty solid last year and maybe the fact that Ben Gordon could be a lil shot happy could be effecting the way stuckey is playing.
by LionsPistonsFan on Nov 24, 2009 11:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's interesting...
I guess I don’t understand how it would affect Stuckey, though. Are you saying that you think he might be trying to force shots because he thinks Gordon will take them away from him eventually? That’d be a fair point, but Stuckey’s shooting MORE than he did last year.
II think his low % is just an issue of him drawing a lot of attention and he needs to become more savvy in knowing when to shoot and when to dish it off. But there could definitely be alternative reasons for his low efficiency.
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by Packey on Nov 25, 2009 4:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep...
his problems have more to do with him keeping the defenders attention on him and instead of giving up to the open man, he throws up a shot.
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by madpoopz on Nov 25, 2009 8:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could it be
That he isnt the player we thought he was.? And will never be? Will Bynum is pretty good and nobody really thought he was gonna be that good. Stuckey had a few good games in the playoffs and everyone thought he was gonna be the next star on the team. And now he is not as good as everyone thought he was cuz his skills is always in question, I mean we hadnt broke down CV31 or Ben Gordon Stats like that why because they are doing what we expected and has always since out of college. How many great players took years to develop that you can name off the top of your head.? And How many great player came right out of college or high school and was awesome that you can name off the top of your head. How long do you wait for a Professional your paying millions to develop. Look at Darko Millic he lasted a year or two with Detroit
by lartho6 on Nov 27, 2009 11:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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