Appreciating Charlie Villanueva: Perfect in the Post?
by Mike Payne on Dec 16, 2009 1:35 PM CST
52 comments
When the Pistons signed Charlie Villanueva this summer, fan expectation for his role was pretty clear. As a tall, long stretch four, Charlie would provide a logical, younger continuation of the role held by Rasheed Wallace for the last six years. While CV got off to a slow start due to a left hamstring injury, he's having the most efficient season of his career-- and one of the league's most effective post offenses.
Villanueva had big shoes to fill when signing with the Pistons this summer. His predecessor, Rasheed Wallace, was dominant on both ends of the floor, exemplified as the only player in league history to record 100 3's and 100 blocks in a season (four times over). While known for a nearly indefensible post game, Wallace had trended mostly to the perimeter in later years, preferring to snipe from the 3-point line instead of trading paint in the post.
Pistons fans grew weary of Wallace's preference for the three ball and his absense in the paint. Having watched Rasheed score at will from deep inside during the 2004 championship season, it was frustrating to see him ignore his greatest skill set for the better part of his Pistons tenure. Just how good was Rasheed Wallace as a Piston? Rasheed recorded his most efficient inside scoring season for the Pistons in 2004, where he shot 60.9% in the post on roughly 23% of his total attempts. Outside of the post, Rasheed shot 42.9% on the other 77% of his attempts.
Rasheed only spent 22 regular season games as a Piston that year. So how has Charlie Villanueva fared in a similar stretch this season?
In the 2009-10 season, Villanueva is shooting a blinding 68.3% from the post-- which accounts for 34% of his shot attempts. Thus far, this is better than anything Rasheed Wallace put up in a Pistons uniform... and even better than many of this league's superstar post players. Charlie is scoring so efficiently from close range that he is outperforming Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh and Kevin Garnett in their career best seasons. Table 1, below shows a comparison between Villanueva and these players in their career best seasons from 2002, data courtesy 82games.com.
To put that in greater context, Charlie Villanueva's 68.3% would have outranked any other power forward in the game last season, with the next closest performance coming out of Amar'e Stoudemire with 65.8% inside shooting (note that Stoudemire spent much of his playing time at the 5).
It appears that Joe Dumars has discovered a one-of-a-kind post talent in Villanueva, a player whose market interest this summer was less-than-electrifying. Why credit Dumars with the discovery? Last season, Charlie's inside scoring was less-than-remarkable, converting at 53.4% while showing cause for serious concern on the other end of the floor. While Villanueva's primary season averages are not entirely different than last year, Dumars has once again shown the virtue of placing misunderstood talent in a situation where it can truly prosper.
Charlie vs. Rasheed: Creating and Receiving
If Charlie Villanueva is outperforming Rasheed Wallace's post offense as a Piston, why hasn't Charlie earned a reputation as a dominant post threat? Stats aside, basketball remains a visual game. Players make impressions on fans by the way they play, and Rasheed Wallace has shown both fans and the media that when he receives a pass in the low post, he's automatic. How many times have you seen Rasheed call for a pass, locked on his man within 7 feet of the basket? That turn-around, fall-away jumper is practically unstoppable.
Rasheed's talent, however, was as much about body control and positioning than it was about his release. Half of Rasheed's post genius was his ability to muscle himself into a position that created a clear passing lane to the ball. This is where he and Charlie differ the most-- in that Charlie has not yet learned how to lock on his man and create a risk-free passing lane to receive the ball. Take a look at Table 2, showing Rasheed's best season as a Piston and Charlie this year:
92% of Rasheed's inside shots were assisted, compared to just 52% for Villanueva. However, this is just as much a positive about Charlie as it is an area where he needs to improve his game. Charlie has shown a greater ability to receive the ball at the perimeter and slash to the basket. He scores so brilliantly in the post by creating for himself, by putting the ball on the floor and getting around his man. He can receive a pass and convert, but he's not afraid to create his own shot.
Making Use of Charlie's Inside Game
Detroit has two primary ways it can improve its use of Charlie V. First, Charlie needs to work with the coaching staff on how to muscle his man into position to create a clear passing lane to the ball. "Muscling" shouldn't be about strength and conditioning, as Charlie is about as cut this year as Wallace was as a Piston. Second, John Kuester should work to develop more plays that revolve around getting the ball to Villanueva within 10 feet of the basket. While Kuester has employed plays like this already this season, it's likely worth developing more to see just how far we can push Charlie's post game.
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After 23 games played, the brilliant post play of Charlie Villanueva cannot be seen as a fluke. Should this be any indication of Charlie's future in Detroit, this signing by Joe Dumars could have been the top free agent acquisition of the summer. When the rest of the media and the league begins to pick up on Villanueva's dominance from the inside, it's only a matter of time before the double-teams begin. Last we checked, a dominant, scoring big who can draw a double team is the most difficult championship ingredient to acquire. That's not to say Villanueva is that type of player yet, but it's safe to assume that his peak is easily another year or two away.
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Awesome analysis Mike! Wondering if you had a chance to look at post-efficiency tied to salary…one thing that makes this an even better move is the fact that we’re paying him 35 million over 5 years which my guess is compared to Dirk, KG, TD, and your other comparables is significantly more cost effective based on the output that we’re getting and the efficiency that that output is coming at.
This article was perfect to shut all the jackasses up in another messageboard with NBA fans who at the beginning of the season said the Pistons made the two worst moves in free agency this season signing BG and CV…needless to say, they haven’t been posting much about Charlie V…
by James B. on Dec 16, 2009 2:34 PM CST reply actions
It would be interesting to see data (which I don’t think exists) that compared how often Charlie scores from the post with his back to the basket when he receives the ball with other quality low post scorers.
Intuitively, I would agree with what MP said here:
Charlie has shown a greater ability to receive the ball at the perimeter and slash to the basket. He scores so brilliantly in the post by creating for himself, by putting the ball on the floor and getting around his man. He can receive a pass and convert, but he’s not afraid to create his own shot.
In other words, my hunch is that Sheed was assisted on his inside backets at a much higher rate because Sheed tended to catch the ball after sealing his man with his back to the basket more often than Charlie does. If a PF’s back is to the basket, and he does a turn and fade or one dribble and fade, the guy who passed it to him will get an assist.
By contrast, if Charlie catches it in the high post or on the wing, makes a 2-3 dribble move to get into the “post”, and finishes, he’s still scoring in the post but not netting an assist for a teammate.
IMO, Charlie ought to keep doing what he’s doing off the dribble and develop the skills that MP mentions (moving without the ball and sealing his man behind him). If he can add that aspect of a low-post game to his repertoire, look out.
by brgulker on Dec 16, 2009 2:36 PM CST reply actions
Great work, MP. Something to think about during the next game, and for the rest of the season.
by PS on Dec 16, 2009 2:49 PM CST reply actions
Great analysis MP. Nice to see some articles other than game threads.. more guest writers!!
I thinks Sheeds ability to get low post position was fueled by attitude and anger. CV is just too happy to be that kind of player. Well, I guess if Tim Duncan can do it….
by Ra on Dec 16, 2009 2:51 PM CST reply actions
Impressive article about an impressive player. I imagine that his post game will get that much better once he develops a higher level of chemistry with one of our gaurds. Hell I think even if CV can form a tandem with another big from our second unit like the one shared by BW & JJ. It would make him that much more potent.
Again, props on the article, we just moved another notch above and beyond any competitor site. How about a series? It seems like the majority of our players bring some intangibles to our team that are a rarity in this league, be it price tag or talent.
by scntfc on Dec 16, 2009 2:52 PM CST reply actions
Thanks for the love everybody! I’d love to continue this in a series. If I can make time, I’ll put one together about CV’s improved defense— plus the impact Ben Wallace has on his frontcourt mate’s production. IF I can make time, or else someone else can tackle it. Step up, DBB!
by Mike Payne on Dec 16, 2009 3:00 PM CST reply actions
I think it would be easy to do something similar about how valuable Ben Gordon’s shooting percentage has been, in spite of his relatively low FG%.
You could use eFG% and TS% to make that case well.
It would also be interesting to see if Ben and CV are as bad on D as predicted by looking at how well the guys that they have been guarding have performed against them.
by brgulker on Dec 16, 2009 3:01 PM CST reply actions
Great job. It made me excited about tonight’s game after last night’s bad loss.
by Chaosmonger on Dec 16, 2009 3:05 PM CST reply actions
@brgulker:
I wanted to talk about Charlie’s D in this article but it had gotten too long already. I’d like to do a follow-up, and one of the primary data points is the comparative play by position from 82games:
http://www.82games.com/0910/09DET9.HTM#bypos
For a player that produced a net loss on court last season, his performance margin over his man is HUGE this season.
by Mike Payne on Dec 16, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions
Great post MP, I was looking forward to reading this. Charlie is only 25 too, so he’s likely not hit his prime yet. I’m excited to see him progress over the next couple years.
by Jim on Dec 16, 2009 3:07 PM CST reply actions
Someone needs to tweet this to Charlie V, stat!
Great work, MFMP. I’m not a numbers guy at all, so it’s always eye-opening to see tangible evidence that point towards one thing or another. It’s fascinating how the game on the court and the game on the stat sheet can appear so differently.
by Garrett on Dec 16, 2009 3:26 PM CST reply actions
Great write up. I originally liked the signing because I thought we needed and offensive big, and everybody knew that he was that. However, I had no idea how efficient and skilled he was. Charlie has definitely been a revelation, hopefully the team will try to make a better use of his abilities.
by Kriz on Dec 16, 2009 3:40 PM CST reply actions
yeah, good work mp. Makes me wonder, too, if those assist #‘s and his back to the basket game won’t come around more when we can surround him with 3 point threats in tay/bg/rip. The drive and kick game is probably the cause for so many opportunities that he has from the wing. Having a legit 3 pt. threat in the corner is going to give him more room to operate on the block.
by Craig on Dec 16, 2009 4:45 PM CST reply actions
Great work, MP!
It is great to see CV produce where we need it most (i.e. low post). Also, while not exactly lighting it up from deep, he has been a decent jump shooter. We all want to see our post players in the post, but it is clearly an advantage to have one that can step out and be a threat. CV does that. Here’s hoping he can find the ideal balance in his attack that will benefit the team to the fullest.
by Waulie on Dec 16, 2009 4:53 PM CST reply actions
The one part that you’re missing on Charlie’s D is his help defense/pick & roll defense and this is where I think he is still utterly terrible to watch.
His 1 on 1 man defense has been solid enough, but at least once a game I see him step out on a screen in such a way that not only gives his own man a clear lane to the basket (on which he doesn’t always recover quickly enough) but it impedes our guard from fighting through the screen itself thus making it harder for our guards to stay with their men.
While his margin against the men that he’s guarding may be in the +, I still think his help defense and pick & roll defense needs a LOT of work.
by James B. on Dec 16, 2009 5:04 PM CST reply actions
Good write up about CV. However, let sheed rest in peace. They are not the same type of players. I am glad that CV is improving and a solid contributor. Many players have great stats….see Zach Randolph. The proof is in the winning. Go Pistons!!!
by vyvee on Dec 16, 2009 5:29 PM CST reply actions
absolutely amazing piece. best and most encouraging research i’ve seen on any pistons player in a long time. the use of statistics makes it darned near impossible not to be excited about Joe D’s decisions this last summer
by oracle on Dec 16, 2009 6:13 PM CST reply actions
great piece MP…I have a question: what’s your opinion on CV31 shot selection from behind the arc?…do you think he’s hoisting it up too often or at bad times?…or do you seem him shooting the 3 all lot like Sheed did last year in terms of putting them up at the wrong times…it’s sort of like how people were referring to Chucky taking Billups-like 3s in the transition…is CV31 doing good or bad job this year from behind the arc?
by bpcruiza on Dec 16, 2009 6:25 PM CST reply actions
MP: Great analysis, I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how good CV’s been at finishing around the basket.
James B: Agreed. The main question with CV going forward will be how his defense continues to develop.
There are a handful of true PF post-scorers, but what separates the winners from everyone else is defense. Of course, CV shouldn’t be expected to turn into a Duncan-level stopper, but CV continuing to improve on the defensive end is essential if we’re going to be a contending team in the future.
Quick bit of shooting stats:
Randolph (from last year): http://www.82games.com/0809/08LAC13.HTM#pstats
CV (this year): http://www.82games.com/0910/09DET9.HTM#pstats
I’m not trying to draw a general comparison between the two of them, just want to illustrate that having a great interior-scoring PF is helpful as long as they’re not giving those points back on the other end of the court. So far this season, CV’s held up his end of the defensive bargain individually. But as James B. pointed out, there is still room for growth, especially as a team defender.
by Gabe on Dec 16, 2009 6:28 PM CST reply actions
Hey All,
I have a lot of comments to catch up on, but I’m totally grateful for all the nice things you guys have said. Just thought I’d share this, but Charlie tweeted the article and commented on it via facebook. Charlie had to say:
“This is a great read, thanks again for the posting. I retweet’ed it on Twitter via Steve Kays RT. Great comparisons. You guys should all check this article out. L8r.”
Yeah, I giggled like a schoolgirl when I saw it. Albeit a hairy schoolgirl.
by Mike Payne on Dec 16, 2009 7:07 PM CST reply actions
Congrats MP! That’s sweet that Charlie saw this post.
by Jim on Dec 16, 2009 7:13 PM CST reply actions
what kind of a player do you all think compliments charlie v in the big rotation? obviously, a strong defensive player like big ben helps CV on defense, but offensively, do we want another big who can space the floor, or go into the post, or do we just want defense?
by oracle on Dec 16, 2009 7:14 PM CST reply actions
it’d be nice to have andrew bynum next to ben and charlie.
by ric on Dec 16, 2009 7:23 PM CST reply actions
Just posted a game thread, no commentary just quick and dirty. Not sure why we didn’t get one up…
by Mike Payne on Dec 16, 2009 7:24 PM CST reply actions
are we paying Devin Brown to turn it over for us?
by bpcruiza on Dec 16, 2009 7:26 PM CST reply actions
God, what a great write-up. I’ve been a fan of CV since his UConn days and he’s finally starting to blossom.
by Terrence Lynch on Dec 16, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions
Charlie, I am real happy for you, and Imma let you finish, but you are making David West look like one of the greatest power forwards of all time. Of all time.
by kanye on Dec 16, 2009 9:13 PM CST reply actions
Hi, some interesting points, but i don’t see how 23 games is in any way a sufficient sample size to back up your claims that C.V. is “a one-of-a-kind post talent” or that “the brilliant post play of Charlie Villanueva cannot be seen as a fluke.” The comparison with Rasheed’s 2004 season is spurious—okay, so he’s playing better right now than Rasheed did then…so what? What mattered in 2004 is that Rasheed played as well as he did in those games; what matters in 2009/10 is that C.V. play as well as he can for an entire season. Similarly, 23 games is pretty meaningless when you compare them with other players’ entire seasons. There are things in statistics called outliers…that is why you try to factor in a player’s entire career before making judgments about their likely success in the future. 23 excellent games, unfortunately, proves very little at this point about Villanueva’s overall quality.
That said, I hope you’re right!
by statz on Dec 17, 2009 3:50 AM CST reply actions
I have nothing to add except that this is an excellent writeup! Awesome job.
by Rami on Dec 17, 2009 7:42 AM CST reply actions
Don’t know if this has been mentioned or not.
But CV has been solid from the FT line. Big up lift when your bigs can knock down FTs consistently.
by Diablo on Dec 17, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions
A while ago I was teasing the DBB crew because the posts have dropped off a bit. MP is killin’ it with this one. Great work.
by Rob G on Dec 17, 2009 9:39 PM CST reply actions
Nice treatment of Charlie V’s talent on offense.
I’d like to see him get his defensive rating down below 100. Then he’s in Rasheed Wallace territory. A comparison at the same age shows that Charlie’s got a long way to go to catch up to Rasheed on the other end. It’s nice to see that his offense can hang over most of the league’s bigs.
by Sauce1977 on Dec 18, 2009 1:09 AM CST reply actions
Guys, this sloppy work isn’t like you. Before you anoint Charlie Villanueva the next Lew Alcindor based upon such a tiny sample size, go back and look at his entire resume, which you can find under seasons listed under the “Prior Seasons” section of 82games.com. You will find that not only is he NOT a reliable inside player, for a guy with a 9’0’’ standing reach he is a very poor inside player.
I guarantee his temporary numbers will not last. Nor will his defensive numbers. They couldn’t wait to get him out of first Toronto and then Milwaukee. That’s all you need to know about that stiff.
But you are right about one thing. Villanueva is a better inside player than Rasheed Wallace. But that’s like saying “That quarterback has a better arm than Steve Walsh had”, or “That’s a better television show than Green Acres”, or “He seems a lot smarter than George W Bush”.
by Ty from Bucks Diary on Dec 18, 2009 2:56 AM CST reply actions
Ty, I’m pretty sure that none of us are too concerned about how two poor organizations didn’t get the best from our guy. By your logic, Ben Wallace and Chauncy’s stats while playing for the stones don’t count either? And why did you guys sign Delfino? He sucked with us and toronto? Hmmm? Sorry your team sucks. If it wasn’t for Jennings, you probably wouldn’t have included the “Bucks Diary” part of your name. The work isn’t sloppy, just your logic.
by Craig on Dec 18, 2009 8:23 AM CST reply actions
@TY:
So, you believe it is impossible for young players to improve over time? What a strange position to take.
by Waulie on Dec 18, 2009 8:23 AM CST reply actions
Guys, this sloppy work isn’t like you. Before you anoint Charlie Villanueva the next Lew Alcindor based upon such a tiny sample size, go back and look at his entire resume, which you can find under seasons listed under the "Prior Seasons" section of 82games.com. You will find that not only is he NOT a reliable inside player, for a guy with a 9′0" standing reach he is a very poor inside player.
I guarantee his temporary numbers will not last. Nor will his defensive numbers. They couldn’t wait to get him out of first Toronto and then Milwaukee. That’s all you need to know about that stiff.
But you are right about one thing. Villanueva is a better inside player than Rasheed Wallace. But that’s like saying "That quarterback has a better arm than Steve Walsh had", or "That’s a better television show than Green Acres", or "He seems a lot smarter than George W Bush".
by ronak on Dec 18, 2009 9:22 AM CST reply actions
How is this work sloppy? I think MP provides some excellent facts to back up this article. No one here is saying Charlie V is the next Duncan, but we think he’s a very good value at 7M per year, especially since the contract is for prime basketball years.
by Jim on Dec 18, 2009 9:59 AM CST reply actions
@ty:
You said: go back and look at his entire resume:
I said, in the article: “Last season, Charlie’s inside scoring was less-than-remarkable, converting at 53.4% while showing cause for serious concern on the other end of the floor.”
You said: Before you anoint Charlie Villanueva the next Lew Alcindor based upon such a tiny sample size
I said, in the article: “Should this be any indication of Charlie’s future”, and “That’s not to say Villanueva is that type of player yet”.
Last, you said: Guys, this sloppy work isn’t like you.
How is this sloppy? I suggested only that the first 23 games Charlie played as a Piston were statistically more efficient inside than some of the league’s greatest current stars. The proof is in the numbers.
Did I suggest that CV is a better player than Bosh, than Dirk, than Garnett or even Wallace? Never. I took this opportunity to look at what Charlie has achieved thus far as a Piston, inside alone, and share my findings with the community. It’s up to them, and you, to take this analysis and make their own opinions about Charlie Villanueva’s future as a Piston.
Your opinion is pretty evident, and I’m grateful that you shared it. I would have hoped for a bit more “honor amongst theives” as a fellow blogger— it’s a bit catty to suggest my work was “sloppy”. The stats don’t lie, and from the content of your comment it appears you read my post with one closed eye.
by Mike Payne on Dec 18, 2009 12:32 PM CST reply actions
Ty,
I follow your Bucks Diary blog (or at least I used to subscribe to it, but for whatever reason, I can’t get the RSS feed to work anymore?), but frankly, I think you’ve missed the forest from the trees here.
By Berri’s metric (and I know your work is based on his), CV is still not very productive, and I realize that you analyzed Charlie’s play for a couple years. But a couple things to think about from the perspective of a Pistons fan:
1) This post is not about what happened in Milwaukee. It’s about what has happened so far this year. So far, Charlie has scored the ball “in the post” very, very well.
2) Detroit has a long reputation for taking in “underachievers” and fostering their talents to their full potential. For a player in recent memory who went from very poor to highly productive (and this would be true of Berri’s metric or yours), take a look at Chauncey Billups.
3) From our perspective, Charlie’s been a part of two piss poor franchises (honestly, no offense intended there, the Bucks are historically crappy) that don’t know how to develop talent. Now Charlie’s here, and we’ve done that successfully many times over.
4) Charlie’s still young, and young players can improve. Thus, the improvement that you see as temporary could actually be indicative of long-term improvements. At the most, you should be making a “wait and see” argument. Instead, you’ve overextended yourself and made a “this will not last” argument.
Anyway, I enjoy your blog, even though you’re a rival blogger, but I think you’ve missed the boat on this particular topic (even if you’re right about the player generally; we’ll have to wait and see).
by brgulker on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM CST reply actions
First Mike, thank you for bringing attention to Villanueva’s post performance, as it has been quite impressive, and I’ve not seen much mention of that fact. However, you’ve made a poor choice of stats to show it, at least if you’re trying to demonstrate Charlie’s success at “post-up attempts,” rather than merely his success on shots close to the rim.
I can’t find anywhere on 82games as to what qualifies something as “close.” Maybe it’s right in front of me and I’m not seeing it, but, anyways, I have vague (perhaps imaginary) memories from years back of them mentioning the cut-off point as five feet. Whatever the exact criteria they use, a substantial fraction of the shots Villanueva takes out of post-up attempts, and the vast majority of shots Rasheed Wallace takes out of post-up attempts, are mid-range jumpers, not shots close to the rim. As such, they (probably) aren’t going to be included in their respective close fg%. The close fg% of these players mostly conssists of dump-offs, put-backs, alley-oops and the like. In Charlie’s case, as opposed to most bigs, it also includes dribble-drives. While it is, of course, important to know how a player does on those attempts, it’s also important to distinguish those sorts of shots from what a player creates from isolations (save for iso’s that themselves result in put-backs, alley-oops, or dribble-drives, as they occassionally do).
Finally, I know Rasheed isn’t actually the subject of your post, but you’re continuing the myth that is his post-up ability, and I must object. If you want to call his fall-away, which he hits at around 40%, “unstoppable,” then you’re free to do so, but it’s an awfully peculiar way to use the term. I mean, not many players can physically block it, due to his length, so it’s “unstoppable” in that sense, but Rasheed just isn’t good enough at it that there is any particular need to stop it.
by BrianW on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM CST reply actions
Excellent piece of work. CV does have game and it has been an absolute pleasure watching him develop as a “stone”. Sheed’s game was done in 04 and since then it has been only about the entertainment factor. Sheed’s defense was unquestionable but only when he got pissed. When that happened he would also take it to the rack and then he would get a tech. Ho-hum.
For the rest of the game, he parked on the arc. 40% for his turn around 6’ jumper. I would have thought that generous and he would give it away at the other end with a hard foul.
“V” brings his game and bonus, we now have a PF that can dribble and in fact dribble better than the SF that we have had the pleasure of watching for the last 5 years, in traffic.
One other little note on the stat’s. With "V"s ability to dribble therefore creating his own shot, has that also had an affect on the
assist % that might have been credited to a PG that has been torched by many on various blogs, for his lack of assists?
Just wondering?
by downunda on Dec 18, 2009 1:41 PM CST reply actions
@MP:
In particular, 1:57-2:07 of the video
Frankly, David Falk and Scott Boras would have been proud of you.
I agree with the several posters who noted CV’s defensive issues. That’s the main difference between he and Sheed. Sheed’s defense is the difference between why he was making #13M/yr at his peak and CV only $7M/yr. I do believe his defense will improve in time, but likely not to Sheed’s level.
I respect guys like Bryan Colangelo and John Hammond, they’ve inproved their respective organizations by their presence. But the Pistons, from top to bottom, remain one of the premier organizations in all of professional sports. I don’t think either guy can touch a guy like Joe Dumars, who was an All Star, and two time ring winner as a player, in terms of evaluating talent. Joe can see what other guys can’t see, this much is clear. I think at least this much is going on with the CV signing. While it is still early, and no one is anointing CV the next Sheed, his signing does look like great value at the very least, with a lot of upside.
by V on Dec 18, 2009 2:28 PM CST reply actions
whoops lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANPsHKpti48
by V on Dec 18, 2009 2:29 PM CST reply actions
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