4th quarter malaise
For those who have noticed that the Pistons' 4th quarter performances have been lacking, you are absolutely right. Over the last 37 games, Detroit has been outscored 24 times in the 4th quarter, and has outscored opponents only 10 times.
All told, the Pistons go into the last stanza with the expectation of losing 1.4 points. If we extrapolate that number, we get an overall deficit of 5.6 ppg. In other words, we play like a bad lottery team in the 4th quarter. So, why is this the case? A few reasons.
1) Chauncey Billups was a fantastic finisher. He is no longer on the team. This has been discussed ad infinitum, so enough said.
2) Second, our free throw shooting has been off. Detroit is now one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the league. We have lost a couple of games late for this reason.
3) Coach Curry's substitutions are arbitrary and bizarre. Further, there are seemingly no set plays in the final quarter. Other coaches use their secret weapon plays to finish out the game. Curry simply urges his team to use sensurgency. Not helpful.
4) We have no reliable scoring presence. We have plenty of scorers, but who demands the ball down the stretch? At this point, the answer to that question seems to be Jason Maxiell, who seldom plays.
If all of our games were decided in the first three quarters of non-Sunday games, we'd be a championship contender. As it stands, there seems to be some tangible chemistry and coaching issues.
Food for thought, anyway.
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You’re dead on, if you ask me.
I would emphasize number three in italics, bold font, and all caps…
by brgulker on Feb 9, 2009 6:34 PM CST reply actions
Great article, Kevin! Couldn’t agree more with everything- but would love to hear your suggestions for how they could improve their 4th quarter play, other than replacing Curry.
My $0.02 is that in the 4th quarter we change from a slow paced team, to an OMFGLACIALTURTLEINFANTCRAWLING slow paced team, which basically results in us taking a lot of highly contested shots late in the clock. No matter what the score actually is, it seems like we play 4th quarters like we’re up by 30 and just trying to run out the game clock.
by Gabe on Feb 9, 2009 8:28 PM CST reply actions
Assuming they are in the lead I think the Pistons should run to start the quarter, and largely zone on the defensive end.
If the Pistons are behind, Curry should run 2-4 set plays, and run Maxiell in hopes of granting an extra possession on of them.
by Kevin Sawyer on Feb 9, 2009 8:54 PM CST reply actions
cosign to what he just said. and why isn’t this guy the pistons head coach and michael curry is again?
by david stern's son on Feb 9, 2009 10:36 PM CST reply actions
I’m not really david stern’s son either. I’m david stern, it was just under that alias on this pc for some reason.
by david stern's son on Feb 9, 2009 10:37 PM CST reply actions
Fourth-Quarter Collapse. Sort of rolls off the tongue…
by TDP on Feb 10, 2009 12:35 AM CST reply actions
Fourth Quarter Throw My Goddamn Computer Out The Window I Cant Believe How Much We Suck Right Now.
I want to believe.
by Laughton on Feb 10, 2009 1:14 AM CST reply actions
“Other coaches use their secret weapon plays to finish out the game.”
Well, if Curry only played Iverson for 26 minutes in the first three quarters, then we could play him the final eight to ten minutes of the game and actually have an Iverson with enough spring in his legs to successfully attack…
We did win seven in a row at one point, and the secret weapon in the fourth quarters of those games was having Iverson attack off the dribble.
by Petey on Feb 10, 2009 2:11 AM CST reply actions
Fourth Quarter Slaughter is having a good year for ATL. It just goes to show you that you can get something good out of marginal NBA players if they know their role night in and night out.
Re: The Pistons 4Q woes, fatigue is an issue too.
by joejoejoe on Feb 10, 2009 3:36 AM CST reply actions
“It just goes to show you that you can get something good out of marginal NBA players if they know their role night in and night out.”
The concept of marginal players having limited and well-defined roles that allow them to help the team win made me shed a tear.
I remembered a time a couple of months ago when I imagined such a concept being employed by the Pistons this year…
I weep for Kwame and Arron and Amir and Maxiell. They could’ve been useful.
by Petey on Feb 10, 2009 5:31 AM CST reply actions
it’s not ai’s fault, but i think the reason we’re struggling in fourth quarters is the same reason we had that winning streak.
i think the fourth quarter starts, curry just hands the ball to AI or Tay and says “Here, make something happen.” So it ends up with no ball movement, no spreading the floor, just one guy isolating his defender until there are 3 second left on the clock.
this worked fine against inferior teams with no defensive high gear. but if your inferior team can turn up the defense in the fourth you’ll beat us. it doesn’t take a genius to double team allen iverson or to force tay to his right.
by Kyle on Feb 10, 2009 7:50 AM CST reply actions
The 4th qtr comes down to players, but a close second is basically “dance with who brung ya.” If we don’t have a consistent offensive philosophy, then the individuals aren’t going to matter if for no other reason than they’ll get in each other’s way because they don’t know what they’re suppose to be doing.
You should be running the same set in the 4th qtr as the 1st. And with better execution. We spend the first half trying to find out who has the hot hand (not totally wrong) but then if we don’t have a hot hand in the 4th, we’re screwed.
by MarkButter in SoCal on Feb 10, 2009 8:36 AM CST reply actions
Here’s my biggest beef with our fourth quarter offense (and others have given some expression to this already):
During the game tonight, watch the shot clock closely and track how long it takes us to get into our offense.
Sheed and Rip are especially bad about this…We nonchalantly walk up the floor, sometimes at a jogging pace.
If we ever get into a set, we don’t get into that set until 14 or so seconds on the shot clock. Assuming the set takes 4-6 seconds to get to the first and second options, we have only 8-10 seconds of the clock remaining.
Again assuming, let’s say that options 1 and 2 don’t work — which they often don’t in the fourth quarter when defenses really buckle down. We are then stuck with the ball in somebody’s hands — and often someone who doesn’t thrive in a one-on-one setting (ie Sheed bombing off-balance threes) — with almost no time on the shot clock.
We simply don’t run the floor hard enough!!!
If I were coaching, I would tell my starters to Run, not walk or job, the floor so that we can get into our offense at 18 seconds, rather than 14-16. And if they chose not to run, then enter Max and Amir, who run the floor hard whenever they enter the game.
It might only save us 2-3 seconds per possession, you might say, but 2-3 seconds is 1-2 additional passes we can make and 1-2 additional moves we can make off the dribble.
That can be the difference between a fadeaway three from Sheed and a wide open jump shot created by penetrate and pitch.
And for the record, I think if AI had his way, we’d be running a lot more often — I don’t think this problem has anything to do with AI. It has everything to do with our delusion that we can score whenever we want to.
by brgulker on Feb 10, 2009 8:50 AM CST reply actions
While I also think “bizarre substitution patterns” is important, I want to underscore joejoejoe’s point about fatigue. Curry manages both to employ inconsistent, odd substitution patterns AND not infrequently play some players (especially ’Sheed and Tayshaun) too many minutes.
Also, to the extent Detroit has used “smallball,” it’s probably extra-tiring for players (Rip, Tayshaun) who have been trying to check bigger bodies for a chunk of the game.
But equally worrying to me is that this has to be in part mental, for the players: lack of confidence, lack of killer mentality, lack of a clear idea of who is supposed to be doing what. . . .
by Toledo Joe on Feb 10, 2009 8:56 AM CST reply actions
One major problem in the 4th quarters/2nd halves is that Curry goes away from everything that worked well and basically pulls a Flip. He relies on Dyess/Sheed to no fail which is by far our worst big combination. And refuses to play anyone else up front.
The Cavs game was a great example. Even in the BOS game Max got pulled inexplicably for Dyess. We don’t have great enough perimeter defenders to get away with this slow line-up, and having two jump-shooting bigs out there kills us.
by Gianna on Feb 10, 2009 9:11 AM CST reply actions
I agree, Gianna.
I think our perimeter defense is to porous to not have an athletic big in the frontcourt to alter shots, rebound on the defensive and offensive glass, and finish plays (fastbreaks and offensive putbacks).
I’ve got a lot of love for Sheed and Dyess, but together, they’re just too old and slow to control the paint on a consistent basis.
Although Dyess has been a monster on the boards, lately
by brgulker on Feb 10, 2009 9:53 AM CST reply actions
@Gianna & brgulker
I’ll second/third what you’re saying re:Curry relying way too much on Dice and Sheed. I disagree that they’re “by far our worst big combination,” but they probably aren’t the best combo either. It’s in the best interest of our team to start giving Max much more time. Unfortunately, Curry is a total idiot and is absurdly, but totally convinced that Max is a 20 minute per game player, at most (Curry’s been quoted saying this numerous times). So… I’m not sure if there’s a readily available solution, other than a trade or firing MC.
@Kevin- I agree with your suggestions, especially that we should be mixing in some zone defense. Also, one of my impressions from last year about something Flip did very well was when he brought the second unit in, he allowed them to play a more frenetic pace, which better suits their strengths. This season it seems like when Curry makes a substitution, he wants the new player to come in and play the exact same role as the player he replaced. It seems like, when Curry realizes Max isn’t the exact same player as Sheed and that he brings a wholly different set of strengths and weaknesses, Curry panics and just takes Max out.
by Gabe on Feb 10, 2009 10:22 AM CST reply actions
KAMAN. Why isn’t anyone talking about Kaman? Apparently the Clippers want to dump him. The Pistons will need a center to go alongside Bosh/Amare/etc anyway. Why not get him on the cheap? What PF wouldn’t be killing to play with Stuck/Rip/Tay/Kaman and a grip of young talent?
Kaman for Sheed. Let AI go and get Amare/Bosh in the offseason…
by Satchel on Feb 10, 2009 10:26 AM CST reply actions
Add me to the list of people that feel that the rotation of our bigs is largely to blame. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around, Rasheed, McDyess, and Tayshaun have all probably played about 30-35 minutes. It’s absurd. (Side Note: Recently, Curry’s been treating AI the same way.)
We can’t execute because we’re exhausted. Kwame, Amir, Jason, Aaron, Walter, and even Will are ACTUAL NBA QUALITY PLAYERS. Curry treats them like they have leprosy which will somehow spread to the crowd if they’re on the floor too long.
by Big Z on Feb 10, 2009 12:07 PM CST reply actions
Satchel: I’m down for his talent, but I’m not so wild about a guy who has missed 93 (and counting) out of a possible 462 career games. I don’t even think the Clippers are trying to move him because they don’t love his talent. I think they’re trying to move him because he’s missed 25+ games the last two years.
by LawyerBoy on Feb 10, 2009 12:14 PM CST reply actions
“We did win seven in a row at one point, and the secret weapon in the fourth quarters of those games was having Iverson attack off the dribble.”
We only outscored our opponents in the 4th quarter once during that streak, and McDyess had 11 of Detroit’s 18 points.
by kevin s. on Feb 10, 2009 12:20 PM CST reply actions
But McDyess’ 18 points were all set up by Iverson attacking off the dribble, deforming the defense, and then dishing.
/Petey’d
(sorry, I couldn’t resist)
by Garrett on Feb 10, 2009 12:31 PM CST reply actions
“But McDyess’ 18 points were all set up by Iverson attacking off the dribble, deforming the defense, and then dishing.”
You say it like it isn’t true, which kinda baffles me after having watched the games in question.
Check out the recent game in Milwaukee. Even if you weren’t watching the actual game action, (as I was), you can get a pretty good sense of how it played out from looking at Iverson’s and McDyess’ 4th quarter boxscore lines.
Iverson drives, two defenders pick him up, and that means a Piston is WIDE open. It’s called basketball….
by Petey on Feb 10, 2009 1:35 PM CST reply actions
The end of the game against Suns was the prime demonstration of what’s causing the Pistons 4th quarter woes. Down by 6 with less than a minute to go. Curry calls a timeout. You expect a rapid play to get a 2 to make it a 4 point game so you can steal/foul to extend the game. Instead the ball goes to Prince’s hands. AI et al all watch Prince run down the clock as he starts posting up outside the 3pt line for 20 seconds as if we were the team that’s up and then the ball goes to Afflalo for a contested off-balance baseline desparation shot.
This is all coaching. If you call a timeout in that situation and the posession that comes out of the timeout almost results in a shot clock violation, you need to start practicing the phrase “would you like fries with that?”
by Walter on Feb 10, 2009 1:56 PM CST reply actions
Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick…
We might win a game.
by Brad on Feb 10, 2009 2:32 PM CST reply actions
For heaven’s sake, people, AI is NOT THE PROBLEM!!
Does anyone besides Petey and myself remember the 7-game win streak? AI and Stuckey played huge minutes, and they were very, very productive.
Note that I’m not saying we’re better without Rip.
What I am saying is that I don’t think it’s AI’s fault we’ve been struggling since that win streak.
The issue is simply far bigger than that.
by brgulker on Feb 10, 2009 3:04 PM CST reply actions
“You say it like it isn’t true,”
It isn’t. Iverson had no assists in that quarter. McDyess, however, did get an assist on Iverson’s only FG. Again, our seven game win streak was an example of some of our worst 4th quarter play.
“Iverson drives, two defenders pick him up, and that means a Piston is WIDE open. It’s called basketball….”
This isn’t what’s happening. He’s driving into traffic, which is something entirely different and not at all desirable. Hence the low assist rate.
by kevin s. on Feb 10, 2009 3:14 PM CST reply actions
Yes, I remember “the worst 7 game win streak in league history.” That quote is from Hollinger.
Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick…
We’re 2-0 with Stuckey, Rip, Tay, Amir, and Sheed starting!!! So everything IS AI’s fault!!! how you like them stats Peter?!?
Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick… Please let AI be sick…
by Brad on Feb 10, 2009 3:33 PM CST reply actions
Last night game was the last straw. I will not be disappointed by watching another 4th quarter meltdown.
THIS
TEAM
SUCKS!
by Stan on Feb 11, 2009 1:59 PM CST reply actions
Good call, sir. The Bulls game is proof enough.
by dunkonu on Feb 11, 2009 2:50 PM CST reply actions
I totally agree with Toledo Joe on this one, especially about the fatigue part. Yes, Curry is playing Rasheed and Tayshaun too many minutes. The solution is simple. Limit their minutes in the first 3 quarters, since Curry refuses to play Amir & Maxiell in the 4th qtr. The same for Iverson. That way, we can get the most out of Amir, Max and Afflalo——the youngsters with ENERGY that we’re supposed to be developing anyway. Their confidence and improvement will only be enhanced by more playing time—- not less. That’s why I say Curry is clueless & has to go! Remember, Joe D hired him. I’m sick of these damned excuses! Going through a transitional year I can understand, but losing like we have lately is unacceptable. Yes, I’m spoiled. The whole league is laughing at us now and I can’t stand it.
by Rahim Muhammad on Feb 13, 2009 5:49 PM CST reply actions

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