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Detroit Draft Debate: Ty Lawson

With the draft just a week away, our good friend Pardeep will debate the merits of several prospects expected to be available when the Pistons pick at No. 15. If you dig Pardeep's steez, don't miss his weekly Cultural Power Rankings. -- MW

By: Pardeep Toor

I was surprised by the polarizing views on Tyler Hansbrough in the comments section during these here draft previews. Part of the reason for the outrage can be traced back to the nature of Psycho T but I also wonder if there's an unconscious Carolina bias since that's the team viewers are exposed to the most via ESPN, Duke vs. UNC hype, history of the program, Roy Williams' blazer and blah blah blah - not a fan.

Biases aside, I'm sorry to disappoint, but I also have doubts about Tyler's Carolina cousin Ty Lawson. He had an amazing finals game, methodically dissecting Michigan State and really every other opponent in the tournament with his drive and dish. There's little doubt that Lawson was the best player in the tournament and had he been out with this toe injury, the Tar Heels would have been upset much earlier in the tournament. He was the best player on the best team in the country this year.

He's small, fast and strong and easily blew by other point guards in college but it's hard to gauge his transition to the pros because he played with so many talented and polished players at UNC. Carolina players in the past few years - Raymond Felton, Sean May, Marvin Williams, Rashad McCants, Brandan Wright - have struggled to find their games at the pro level because they come from an unselfish program stacked with talent. The number of college stars from Carolina meeting expectations at the next level has been diminishing, which by no means is prophetic for each individual, but it's a trend nonetheless.

College Career:

Junior Season: 16.6 points, 6.6 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 1.9 TO, 53.2 FG%, 79.8 FT%, 47.2 3PT%

The assists numbers were a lot higher than I expected. It helps that Psycho T shot 51.4 percent, Wayne Ellington 48.3 percent, Danny Green 47.1 percent and Ed Davis 51.8 percent.

His shooting percentages were a lot higher than I expected as well. Weird. I never looked at Lawson as a solid shooter. I'm not the only one who feels that way.

Best Case: Raymond Felton - Continuing the tradition of Carolina point guards not translating to good pros (hat tip: Pat Hayes), we will keep the comparisons in house. Probably the main reason for Carolina failures is that they don't always get to play with as much talent and athleticism as they do in that gross shiny baby blue.

Worst Case: Mike James - quick, out of control, situational defender, never discovers consistent shooting touch.

Fit With The Pistons: The problem with drafting any point guard or back court player in this year's draft is it requires sinking the log jam of Rip Hamilton/Rodney Stuckey (I don't count Arron Afflalo as a rotation player). The Pistons need a true point guard, Hamilton doesn't want to come off the bench and for whatever reason, Dumars won't allow Stuckey to properly develop off the bench - he needs to be the savior right away.

Lawson is an interesting prospect because of his speed, ability to get to the hoop and he would instantly be the best true point guard on the roster. He doesn't address the team's greatest need (big men) nor is he the best fit on a imbalanced roster heavy on shooting guards and weak on everything else. That being said, at some point you need to acquire your point guard for the future (I prefer Eric Maynor) and I don't see much available through free agency or trades ... please don't say Rafer Alston again.

How about Lawson driving and dishing in the lane next year in the Dee?

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Comments

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I really don’t get the Felton comparisons. Lawson has never shot under 50 percent from the field – and fg percentage seems to be a number that translates pretty well to the NBA. Felton struggled to shoot 40 percent in college and now he struggles to shoot that as a pro, which is a big reason why Augustin is their point guard of the future.

What is it that Lawson does poorly, or even below average? The guy is this year’s Danny Granger.
*************************
And by the way, I was looking at the predraft measurements from Draft Express – and what if you had a guy who is 6’9, 240 with the speed and agility of Ty Lawson, the strength of Dejuan Blair, the body fat of Hasheem Thabeet, the leaping ability of Hill, Derozen, or Evans, and is one of the best shooters in the draft? And he’s 21 with 3 years as a starter at a major program. Would that be a small forward you’d be interested in for the second round? Anyone want a ticket to the DaJuan Summers bandwagon?

by Shinons on Jun 20, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Shinons sign me up.

by Defor on Jun 20, 2009 1:07 PM CDT reply actions  

Lawson is the best prospect according to the Wages of Wins. He had the highest Position Adjusted Win Score of all college point guards. John Hollinger PER ranks Lawson as one of the two best players in the draft.

If he somehow falls to the Pistons (very unlikely), Dumars should take about 1-sec to select him!

by ashton on Jun 20, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions  

i would be surprised if lawson isn’t there at 15. if he’s gone by 15, then someone has dropped dramatically like a jordan hill or dejuan blair.

by JackDutch on Jun 20, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions  

“What is it that Lawson does poorly, or even below average?”

My scouting report (based on only a handful of games admittedly). I’ll limit it to his faults because that was the question.

He can’t explode to the rim a la MFWB. This is backed up by his very low combine numbers when it comes to highest reach numbers. So, he won’t be a great finisher in the NBA. He’ll have to rely more on his pull-up (which he seems to do well).

But, in order to get to that pull-up, he’ll need to and more shake and bake to his game. In college, he could simply blow by people. He was pretty much a straight line driver. He’ll need to add more head fakes and change of pace moves to get where he wants to go. I’m guessing this is coachable, but it will take time. So he’ll either struggle early or hit a wall once the league figures out his limitations. This is fine (unless your name is Rodney Stuckey, apparently, in which case, you will be declared a bust after one and a half seasons).

Also, because of his size and lack of wingspan. There’s certain passes that he won’t be able to see and if he sees them, won’t be able to make them because of those attributes.

My guess is that he’ll be like Jacque Vaughn. A solid, dependable backup PG.

by Quick Darshan on Jun 20, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Comparing Lawson to Felton is lazy and incorrect. They have very few statistical similarities, and Lawson has proven to be a much better player, hands down.

Here’s both of their career college stats:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ty-Lawson-485/stats/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Raymond-Felton-5/stats/

Other than both of them being short, Lawson has NONE of the red flags that were apparent in Felton’s college stats.

Lawson shoots the 3 better, and more importantly, he is one of the best finishers for his size in all college basketball, never shooting below 56% on 2 pointers in any season of his career. Felton never shot above 50% on 2 point shots ever. That indicates a huge gap in craftiness and finishing ability, not to mention Lawson is a far better passer (his freshman year ast/TO ratio is better than any Felton ever posted in college).

Basically Lawson does every single thing better than Felton did, so it’s a little crazy to say Felton is Lawson’s “Best Case.”

by Gabe on Jun 20, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions  

Lawson is the best prospect according to the Wages of Wins. He had the highest Position Adjusted Win Score of all college point guards. John Hollinger PER ranks Lawson as one of the two best players in the draft.

If he somehow falls to the Pistons (very unlikely), Dumars should take about 1-sec to select him!

Yeah, WoW and PAWS seem to be the most effective predictors to me… which is why I favor Blair and Lawson. Psycho T is also good by those metrics, but for whatever reason, I’m still very skeptical of him.

by brgulker on Jun 20, 2009 3:57 PM CDT reply actions  

I would love Lawson (or Clark or Blair). But let’s keep in mind that this is not a good draft. A lot of the first rounders won’t even be rotation players. Let’s not let last year’s exceptional rookie class create unrealistic expectations.

by Birdman on Jun 20, 2009 4:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I would rather see the Pistons pass on Lawson and sign Felton. Felton has more league experence and has point guard training by L. Brown. Around here we know what that means. I think Felton expodes next year.
With the Bobcast or with the Pistons. Save our first rounder for a forward.

by rd on Jun 20, 2009 5:51 PM CDT reply actions  

By the way, didn’t MSU forward, Goran Suton, show last year that he may be an above average bench or better player? I haven’t seen or heard any talk about him, but he played BIG in the ncaa’s and I thought someone might have noticed.

by rd on Jun 20, 2009 5:58 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m happy with our guards. MFWB impressed me, Stuckey performed well enough for a second year player amid the turmoil of this past season. Lawson looks like he could be a servicable player, but I don’t buy this talk of needing a PG and then drafting a rookie to do the job.

Get Earl Clark, get a backup to Tay, at least fix the SF position. We will most likely still be able to grab a PG or C in the 2nd round.

by Laughton on Jun 20, 2009 8:41 PM CDT reply actions  

rodney suck me is nobodys future. he suck as pointguard because other teams just through shooting guards on him defensivly and they lock him down. so putting him at the two and trade rip is stupid as fuck. trade stuckey and let him become somebody elses problem. if the player don’t cut the mustard don’t kiss his ass get rid of him. that what you did to billups and he’s way better than a suckey. his upside is learning how to shoot and run a team, if he come back this summer just being able to drive to the basket trade him while you got the chance.

by joe on Jun 20, 2009 11:35 PM CDT reply actions  

we need to stop entertaining these dumb articles. the pistons front office cry every year that we need a impact player like lebron, like kobe, like wade and like the great jordan, but when one in their face they don’t grab him. i’ll repeat gp is not jumping on terrance williams bandwagon for no reason. jordan was not a great player in college but look what he did when he came in the nba. nobody knew kobe would be as good as he is,in the nba or he would have been the #1 pick when he was drafted.so in other the words don’t judge what he did in college, judge what he is capable of.

by joe on Jun 20, 2009 11:55 PM CDT reply actions  

the palace prince need to become the staple center prince let grab ariza!!!!

by joe on Jun 21, 2009 12:03 AM CDT reply actions  

we need a new act in motown get rid the remainder of 04 championship team and start with some new blood.
pg: will binum (for now)
sg: terrance williams
sf: trevor ariza
pf: maxell(for now)or david lee
c: amarie stodimire
with this team we can play up temple or half court.
a few ajustments and thats a real championship team!!!!
fuck boozer, fuck gordan and fuck curry man!!!!

by joe on Jun 21, 2009 12:17 AM CDT reply actions  

this should be line up for next year.
PG: barbosa, binum and a third guard
sg: twill, stuckey
sf: ariza, aa
pf: maxell, pendergraph and heytvelt
c stoudemire, brown( hopefully one of pf rookies play better so they can take brown spot)
sign ariza as free agent, trade prince,rip and johnson for barbosa and stoudemire, grab twill at the 15 pick.
with this team the pistons will be energetic and athletic. which will give other teams problems. the only thing that will be left to fill is the coach position but that another story!!!!

by joe on Jun 21, 2009 12:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Huh. I thought it was a given that Ty Lawson would be gone in the lottery. I didn’t even think about it.

The Raymond Felton comparisons are inevitable. However, Ty Lawson’s college performance was superior to Felton’s in every meaningful way. As such, I would say that Felton represents the basement, not the ceiling.

by kevin s. on Jun 21, 2009 12:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Petey thinks it’s stupid to pay attention to Lawson’s college stats. And he cranks the douchitude to 11 on this one.

by Colin on Jun 22, 2009 9:40 AM CDT reply actions  

@ Colin

“Even though Stockton ended up in a position to have a very nice career, the GM’s who chose Hakeem, MJ, the Chuckster, Perkins, Thorpe, Willis, and even Robertson ahead of him have nothing to apologize about.

If Stockton hadn’t ended up with Malone and Sloan, he probably wouldn’t have had a HOF career."

Classic Petey, right there.

by Birdman on Jun 22, 2009 10:29 AM CDT reply actions  

Yes, he brightened my day.

by Colin on Jun 22, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions  

I knew Petey was a left-winger from my first interaction with him. Just sayin’…

by kevin s. on Jun 22, 2009 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

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