I love smallball – in an extremely skeptical, borderline-hateful way.

G.O.L.D.E.N S.T.A.T.E
Let all cheer the era of Nellie ball east…
 ?etroit basket ball
This sounds great in theory provided the other team isn’t making their shots or are turning the ball over which require d-fense. Otherwise it seems doomed to Pistons take shot, miss shot ( or make shot ) but the rebound goes to the other team. Opponent X misses shot and then proceeds to gobble up the offensive rebound too and get a second, third… shot attempt. Then we get to lumber back to the other end of the floor with team X after their made basket. There is a reason Golden state in the Nellie formation or the D’antonio Sun’s have not won a champoinship. Not that I expect them to win one this year but why try to build you house on cotton candy and jelly beans?

I’ve read that either Rasho or Big Ben will be signing this week.

Smallball under Kuester will be better than under Bebounds F. Popcones.

I think the point is not that we are turning into Golden State, but that when we DO run smallball, we can do it more effectively than before by altering our playing style.

That doesn’t mean we can’t play a slower, more defensive pace at other parts of the game. It just means when we’re more athletic and quicker, we take advantage of it rather than be outcoached.

There’s a big difference between the offense Dumars has been designing (I think) and Golden State and Phoenix.

Nellie Ball is basically about having great one on one players and giving it to the guy who has the best mismatch or the hot hand.

D’Antoni ball is predicated on having a great PG to run the offense.

This is just conjecture on my part but I think Dumars is trying to put something together that I haven’t really seen before. It looks like he’s putting together an offense where there are at least 4 players on the court that can handle the ball and pass. Any one can initiate the break and the half court offense will have more ways to attack. It will be more unselfish than Nellie Ball and more versatile than D’Antoni Ball.

This doesn’t change the need for a big man that can:

Provide Shot Blocking Presence
Rebound
Make Great Outlet Passes

Kevin Love with Shot-Blocking essentially.

This has to be the only team running small ball that can’t guard the point.

2008-2009 smallball = Curryball

2009-2010 smallball = Q-Ball

You know that’s catchy.

Don’t worry, for a small donation of $.05 per use, it can be your catchy term too! All proceeds will go directly to my Lollapalooza Supply Fund.

Much of the blame has been laid at the feet of Tayshaun Prince

Part of the issue was that Rip was a terrible rebounder at the 3, and Tay wasn’t solid enough at the 4 to compensate. Since Tay was a wash offensively, Rip’s scoring was necessary at the 3. A simple swap of Tayshaun for Amir, albeit with his foul issues, would have given us a huge spike in rebounding, defense and blocked shots— not to mention his speed in getting up and down the floor.

I barked about that shit the whole time we played small ball, and still feel that a simple swap of Tay for Amir could have added 3 or 4 wins to that small ball test. Now I know I’m an Amir apologist, but even with his glaring weaknesses in fouls and offense— the skills he did provide were exactly what small ball was missing under MCIAFI.

Smallball, smallball, were I with thee…

Rob G, that’s a can of worms that should always remain open.

Especially in limited spots, I think Daye could be fantastic at the 4 in Q-Ball Mode. He’s seems to be a very above average defensive rebounder, even at his diminutive weight, because of his ridiculous length. Pair him with a bruiser like Wilcox/Max/Kwame to do all the pushing and shoving and watch him steal a ton of bebounds with those tentacle-arms of his. Not to mention he can just fade to the 3pt line on the break while Wrecking Ball Will bounces through the lane picking up defenders for the kick-out.

Is this really our second unit?

MFWB/Benny G/Daye/Max/Wilcox

I’ll take that squad “scrubs vs. scrubs” against every single team in the league.

My whole problem with small ball was the fact that the largest problem on the team was the lack of backup at the 3. It used to be lack of decent backup at 1 and 3 which left us with two exhausted stars in time for the ECF. No sooner than the point problem was solved that our biggest problem became lack of backup 3 and age at the 4 and 5 (especially 5). But please God the solution to the problem is not to move your only decent 3 and make him play the 4. That was just cutting your nose to spite your face.

I’m all for putting your best 5 players on the floor and letting the other guy adjust. But I think it is more prudent to pick spots than to run it out there just to see what might happen. By all means, use Hamilton at the 3 in stretches. That might be the best way on the team to rest Prince. Anyway, I\m eager to see how Prince responds with the only early break he’s ever seen (and no Olympics as well). Trading him under these circumstances would be short sighted and foolhardy.

Who is the Q-Star?
I don’t care; he has to be
Better than Curry.

What’s going to happen is the Pistons are going to win about 30 games! But, look on the bright side, we’ll have a lottery pick next summer.

Now, all we need is Joe D not to mess it up again, like that Darko pick…

When Curry’s the coach
Big ball, small ball: no difference
You’re still shooting blanks

QD:

IMO, it seems like the team whose plan we are copying is Portland.

They have a big guard (Roy), who they surround with elite 3 point shooters at the other guard spot and at SF, plus they always have a jump shooting PF on the floor (either Aldridge or Outlaw) to keep the interior defense stretched and out of the paint.

We have Stuckey in the Roy role of play-making guard. Ben Gordon as an improved Steve Blake, Tay for Batum/Rudy Fernandez, and now CV for Aldridge.

The big difference, and what keeps us from being as good as they currently are, is the Prez/Oden combo is way more potent than anything we can muster at center, and Roy is a legit, top 10 star. If Stuck can get to that level, we’ll have a damn good team. Otherwise, not so much.

Gabe, the difference is that Roy is the only one on Portland capable of facilitating the offense. Detroit will have Stuckey, Bynum, Tayshaun, Rip (in his own way), and, in a couple years, Daye. Portland is really a conventional team with Roy basically playing the point.

“I’ll take that squad "scrubs vs. scrubs" against every single team in the league.”

I am planning to post on this, but this is the deepest Pistons team I have seen. In the past, we have forced ourselves to get excited about non-factors as 8th and 9th men.

On this roster, those guys are Daye and Bynum.

“Be faithful in small things because it is in them that your strength lies.” -Mother Theresa

To continue, I think that’s why Portland was so interested in Tayshaun and Hedo. They want another player that can facilitate (especially since they don’t like their point guards).

“IMO, it seems like the team whose plan we are copying is Portland.”

Their big men were 6’11, 6’11 7’ and 7’1. Their threes were 6’8 and 6’9, and their twos were 6’6. They thrived on offensive rebounding from their bigs. If Dumars is trying to emulate that, he is an abject fool, but I would need to see evidence this is the case.

I’m just posting to say, “I agree,” and “I’m alive.”

Also, the little I saw of Daye in Vegas (I could only watch one game from beginning to end, but saw parts of others), I was really impressed by his handle and play-making ability. Before seeing him, I figured he was an undersized (rather, underweight) four; now, I view him as an oversized (but still underweight) three.

QD:

Good point, it’s not a perfect comparison, but it’s the closest one I can think of, and it’s not a bad model to copy as Portland was 1st in the league in offensive efficiency last season.

Kevin S:

I’m really hoping that Daye is the primary back-up at SF, but things like this get me a little worried:
http://www.freep.com/article/20090720/SPORTS03/907200321/1051/DaJuan-Summers-shines-from-the-get-go

“Never saw [Summers] play in college, never saw his workout because my mother-in-law passed away, so I wasn’t at his workout,” Pistons assistant Darrell Walker said. “But he’s NBA ready. I’m sure he’s going to have some knocks and ups and downs, but he’s NBA ready.”

And Vince Ellis adds, “…in the race to back up Tayshaun Prince next season, [Summers] has a slight edge over Daye.”

Daye’s skinniness is exactly the type of thing that coaches love to use as an excuse not to give a rookie minutes. Even though he’s shown himself to be better than Summers at pretty much every facet of the game, I still have my doubts that Daye will actually get the nod.

Summers looks like an NBA player, so he’s gotta be one, dammit! And Daye’s skinny, who cares that he averaged way more rebounds and shot a higher percentage! He’s skinny!

“Otherwise it seems doomed to Pistons take shot, miss shot (or make shot) but the rebound goes to the other team.”

Actually, that’s part of the idea of speeding up the offense. Whoever is back gets the rebound. Certainly, if rebounding is a problem, you try to speed up the pace.

coachDP HAIKU

coach Q offensive
GENIUS. But DEFENSE suffers.
just epinion.

It sounds weird to say “epinion” with 4 syllables

I can’t believe no one even responded to playing fantasy football. Kevin S. and Matt W. are more than welcome too. But hey, I guess if no one plays then no one plays. I just figured most guys that like sports usually play fantasy football.

“Summers looks like an NBA player, so he’s gotta be one, dammit! And Daye’s skinny, who cares that he averaged way more rebounds and shot a higher percentage! He’s skinny!”

You are confusing coaches for scouts. Actions speak louder than words, and the Pistons acted to give Daye 4 years and Summers 2.

But if you want Daye to bulk up, isn’t that precisely the thing you say in an endeavor to make it so? Think about it. If you spent what essentially amounted to a lottery pick on a player, what about Daye’s summer league performance would cause you to change the hierarchy?

Ha! I read it as 4 syllables which makes it even more fantastical.

“Their big men were 6′11, 6′11 7′ and 7′1.”

Kwame, CV and Wilcox are in the same ballpark.

“Their threes were 6′8 and 6′9”

Tay and Daye and Summers are about that tall.

“They thrived on offensive rebounding from their bigs.”

You’re right that this is where the comparison obviously falls apart.

Everything else about our roster is very similar to Portland’s though:
Stuck=Roy, Gordon=Blake, Rip=Rudy, Tay/Daye=Batum/Outlaw, CV=Aldridge.

“If Dumars is trying to emulate that, he is an abject fool, but I would need to see evidence this is the case.”

Giving Ben Gordon $58mil for five years when no other team had the money or desire to give him anything close to that amount doesn’t count as evidence?

Kevin S:

The guy quoted in the Vince Ellis piece I linked to is a coach, he’s Darrell Walker, one of the two returning assistants from last season. He’s already been given a spot on Kuester’s staff, and I assume will have some input into which players get spots in the rotation.

You can hear him gush more about Summers here, if you want:
http://www.nba.com/pistons/video/2009/07/18/summerleague_090717.pistons/index.html

I don’t know what Joe D is up to. I think He might just be trying to build up the talent level of the team before swinging some sort of trade to give the team a true identity… it’s really all about what philosophy Keuster employs. I think this will only work if Stuckey develops into an All-Star and a leader in the locker room. I agree with past posters on the depth of this team. If Kwame and Wilcox can surprise some people with their level of play, this team could be pretty good. I see Joe D seeing how this year pans out, then swinging a trade for a legit big either later this year or next year… I believe that is bound to/must happen. Can’t really tell until you see the product on the floor though.

Wow Gabe, I would at least compare Stuck=Blake and BG=Roy, because BG=Blake and Stuck=Roy just seems ridiculous to me

Jesus Christ it must be nice to be over the cap.

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/60699/20090721/magic_near_deal_with_forward_matt_barnes/

How the hell are they able to sign all of these guys? I thought there were rules in place for this sort of thing?

@Kronik

It will come back to haunt them/bite them in the ass.

“If you spent what essentially amounted to a lottery pick on a player, what about Daye’s summer league performance would cause you to change the hierarchy?”

You’re probably/hopefully right about this. I’m pretty much paranoid now about all matters to do with the Pistons, as basically every possible thing that I didn’t want to happen has happened, and everything that I did want, hasn’t.

KRONIC: Comparing their size and games, Roy and Gordon have almost nothing in common. Stuckey and Roy are both essentially over-sized PG’s. Roy is clearly a lot better at the moment, but Jod’s moves seem to have been made under the assumption (hope?) that Stuckey will greatly improve.

Steve Blake is to Ben Gordon as Oscar Meyer is to filet mignon.

That actually works with Stuck and Roy too…

Joel:

lol :) Very true on both counts, though last year Stuck’s stats aren’t too far off Roy’s rookie year (both were their age 22 seasons):
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=WjhU9

If Stuckey can just learn to shoot the ball a little better, especially if he can get his 3pt% up around league average (roughly 35%), he’ll be a monster.

Gabe, for what it’s worth, I think Jerebko might get more minutes than both of them because I get the feeling he’s the most ready as a defender.

From the little I’ve seen of DaJuan, he looks like he’ll either be a better Jarvis Hayes (better at driving and pulling) or maybe a Tim Thomas. That may sound like an insult, but this is a second round pick after all.

I see JaVale McGee blew it up in Summer League today. 31 points, 8 boards, and 4 blocks. Wonder if the Pistons could get him off the Wizard’s hands?

QD, funny enough, draftexpress lists Summers “best case” comp as Tim Thomas. Not too exciting, but definitely true that for a 2nd round pick, we’ll take it. Summers seems like the type of player who can be useful on a team that needs scoring punch off the bench, but that shouldn’t be a need for our team this year (at least I hope it’s not).

My alarm bells have just been going off because all the usual Jod mouthpieces have been hinting that Daye is likely “a year away,” and Summers is more “physically ready.”

And I hope you’re right about Jerebko getting solid minutes next season, he seems like he could fill some of our current rebounding and defense void.

@KRONIK:
You know this isn’t fantasy basketball, right?

@Gabe

Yeah, Stuck’s not actually Oscar Meyer. More in the 95/5 lean ground area. I fully expect another jump in his production this year, especially with all these shooters to space the floor. His shooting numbers should go up because the deep threats will keep their men honest (and out of the lane) and the assist number will go up for pretty much the same reason (kick out when defenders aren’t being so honest). I don’t think 16/7/4 is out of the question, which will get you on the All-Star team as an alternate some years (ask Jameer Nelson). We might just have a 60-65pt/game back-court all told. Rip and Ben at around 20 apiece, Stuck around 15, Bynum around 10. After CV gets fed, there aren’t gonna be too many shots left for the front court, so maybe that will give them more incentive to rebound? It’s really the only way a Max/Kwame/Wilcox is going to see a single shot in this offense.

@ Mike Payne: You do know that DBB is just a cool website and not some alternate universe that you have seemed to deem yourself the king, right?

Dude, I don’t know what your deal is with me, but get off your high horse. If I say anything on this site you seem to have some sort of smart-ass remark. Like in the last thread, I mentioned a trade of RIP and Maxiell for Boozer, Korver, and Koufos, and you come back at me with your prissy, “Please. Stop. That trade was a decent idea when it was suggested here back in May. Enough already.” Only, back in May we didn’t have Gordon and we still thought we could just sign Boozer outright because we thought he was going to opt out. So I highly doubt that trade was talked about here back in May, but you just wanted to be a dick about it. I think I know what your problem is, it’s called little-dick syndrome, so deal with it. Stop projecting your aggression onto me and just worry about filling your post quota for the day, because heaven forbid we all miss out on the infallible Mike Payne’s legendary knowledge. Ya…right…

Look, I come here because most of the people that come here seem to be very knowledgeable Piston fans, which is what I am. If there’s a discussion I would like to throw my 2 cents into, I will, because I love talking Pistons. I like to read other people’s trade ideas(like Cory’s for example) and I like to read other people’s opinions on what the Pistons should do next. I like to read people’s opinions because I have opinions of my own that I would like for them to read. I don’t even know who the “veteran” DBBers are, but for the most part, all of the posters seem like cool, knowledgeable people, which is why I still come back to this site daily. One “deutschbag” won’t change that.

QD..another high percentage post…but to my mind, defense wins playoff games and rings, and I’m not sure where the defense is coming from here. No matter what the rules are, you still have to play defense.

Regarding Rasho v Ben…I think Rasho is the better fit, but I think they’re going to sign Ben anyway, to sell more tickets. Maybe Arnie K can squeeze some more mileage out of him anyway.

In regard to getting McGee from Washington, we could also go after Andre Blatche. I think all you’d have to do is tell him that there are some good hookers in Detroit.

(Are there?)

KRONIK, I already have several FF leagues, otherwise I’d at least check it out … also, I mean you answered it yourself re: Mike P. Don’t sweat it … it isn’t you, seriously.

For stretches of a game, I think this years squad is much better equipped to handle small ball then last years. We have more shooters and an upgrade in coaching.

It’ll be interesting to see the pecking order on offense this year. Depending on how much faster we play I wouldn’t be shocked if 4 out of these 5 average at least 15 ppg next year: Rip, BG, CV, Stuckey, and Tay.

(Preface: being a little sarcastic and overdramatic here)

Jod has constructed a team devoid of rebounders and interior defenders. The only obvious solution to getting our best players the minutes they deserve is to play — or more accurately play again/re-visit — small balls. And the cherry on top is that DBB (or at least Kevin S. as the official spokesperson) actually thinks this is a good idea.

I feel like my universe is imploding.

I really don’t want to see smallball, even an improved version. I really, really, really don’t to see Rip at the 3 or Tay at the 4.

Of course that doesn’t mean those things won’t happen.

What is he building in there…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaLjwSpZ6Cs

I think the difference between last year’s Curryball and this year’s Q-Ball is the fact that now we the athletes and shooters that are required to play (a limited, hopefully) amount of small-ball. I don’t think one can really even point to last year as any type damning evidence— the captain of the ship was mentally retarded, Allen Iverson (!) was on our team, we had literally no outside shooting (none), and absolutely did not have the caliber of athletes needed to run ‘n gun in small mode. Will it work? In spurts you’d assume it should given our squad’s makeup. I’d like to see this squad:

Stuck
Ben
Rip
CV
Wilcox

It’s a 3-guard lineup, not necessarily “small-ball,” but the ingredients all there— everyone can run the floor, 1-4 can shoot, Wilcox can just clean up/dunk on the break. Plus we’re not so dangerously thin upfront (and no Tay at the 4— that’s embarrassing for him and us).

we want small ball! clap clap.. clap clap clap… We cant small ball! clap clap.. clap clap clap..

It’s obvious who watched summer league and who didn’t. Those that say that Summers is “NBA ready” probably only read about it or saw the first game. Yes, he has an NBA body and he was an intimidating beast in the first game. The rest of the games he played well and got his stats but he was also a foul machine nowhere near as efficient as he was in the first game. Yes he deserves and will get some immediate burn, but he still has a lot to learn and is by no means a finished product.

After watching all 5 summer league games, I am first and foremost a Daye fan. I’m excited to watch this kid. Dude has great handles and vision for somebody his size. He always seems to be in good rebounding position and he was the obvious leader of the summer squad.

Daye is an oxymoron. How can you look like one of the biggest players on the court and at the same time look like one of the smallest? Everybody is complaining about his size, and he could stand to eat a few Ole 96ers but he looks a lot more ready than I thought he would (even for summer league)

Nothing against Summers, I think he will be a great asset as well and possibly have a quicker impact. He’s a wonderful pickup, especially so late in the draft. I just think people are jocking him too much without giving Daye enough credit.

Right now Dejuan Summers is a man. Daye is still a boy, but he is capable of playing with the men. Just wait til little Austin grows up.

@ Sauce: Naw I ain’t sweating it man, I was just drinking last night after work otherwise I normally wouldn’t say anything like that on the internet. Face-to-face maybe, but never on the net. Also, as far as FF goes, I’m in a bunch of leagues too. I’m just always looking for new competition since I dominate every league I play in. ;)

@ Joel: Ya I would like that small-ball line-up. Every spot is filled with playmakers that definitely could get up and down the floor. We could maybe even have JJ in there for Wilcox at times if he indeed is 6’10", like Wilcox.

OT: Man I love it when my son decides to sleep in! He’s normally up around 8-8:30, but today I got an extra hour and a half. It feels good.

I’ll agree that we played an especially bad/stupid version of smallball last year, but the bigger picture is that smallball doesn’t work in the medium or long runs, or especially in the playoffs. Yes, I know Golden State beat Dallas, but that’s the definition of “exception that proves the rule.”

It’s going to be awfully tempting to have Rip and BG on the floor together down the stretch of close games. But then we have no point guard, so we’ll need Stuckey too . . . and then our bigs are all small, except maybe for Kwame, who isn’t built for a fast-paced small ball game.

@ Rotten Atom: Ya I like Daye a lot too. Although, I honestly don’t think he will bulk up that much, Kander should be able to get him to a solid 215(hopefully 225, but I think 215 is a bit high). We were all saying the same thing about Tayshaun and Tayshaun never really got any bigger. Daye should be first in the pecking order amongst rookies, not only was he drafted like that but he also earned it. I think all of the rookies showed they deserve some playing time so I think it is safe to say you should see all of them grace the hardwood at some point or another. I wonder if Q-ster will ever put a small-ball line-up of all the rookies in garbage time? You know, after we are blowing out the Celtics and there’s only 2 minutes left. I hope he puts Bynum, Washington, Daye, Summers, and Jerebko out there to shit on those Celdicks even more. One can dream…

Although, I think with the emergence of Summers, it just gives another option we can throw out there. I think the first rookie you see come off the bench depends on who we are playing. If there is a physical SF out there, you will probably see Summers come off the bench first. If there’s more of a finesse SF, you will see Daye come off the bench first. Either way, I like the draft we had this year, even though we didn’t get Danny Green or Earl Clark.

Gabe! Glad to see you’re coming around at least a little bit on Summers!

The thing that really separates Summers from the other perimeter oriented big men that he’s compared to is his athleticism. Yeah he’s got great size, but he’s really an amazing athlete. While I was pushing him all spring I mentioned consistently that he has Ty Lawson speed and quickness with DeJuan Blair strength. If we’re looking to play faster at times, he could be a monster power forward. The rebounding numbers are a concern, but I put that on the fact that he always had great big men at Georgetown: Hibbert, Green, Monroe, Ewing. Rebounding and providing an interior presence just wasn’t his role. I’m just excited to see how a smart coach could use his mismatch potential.

I feel like DBB is suffering from some type of collective confirmation bias.

We desperately want to win games, but we know from our history and the history of the league that teams that play small ball regularly don’t win championships or even succeed in the playoffs. We have a roster that’s unbalanced, and to get our best players adequate minutes, we’re going to have to play small ball. So, we’re convincing ourselves that small ball could work for us, even though we know deep down that it won’t.

Playing Rip at the 3 and/or Tay at the 4 for any amount of time — other than the occasional team we might play against that uses small ball itself, such as GS — will not help us win games; it will contribute to losses.

No matter how you slice it, small ball makes us even worse on defense and on the boards — the two places we’re already weak when playing with our big balls — and we need to defend and rebound in order to be a winning team.

Oh, and since I’m feeling pessimistic, here’s Berri’s latest and greatest analysis of the Pistons.

28.4 wins .

And remember, his model is able to predict team wins with about 95% accuracy, and that’s well-documented and even acknowledged by his critics (mostly). Regardless of how you might feel about how he evaluates individuals, he almost always gets it right with respect to team wins.

Way to go, Jod!

brgulker, you’re onto something. This place is the AIDS of confirmation bias.

Case in point: optimists and their shitting of rainbows. We’re used to great teams and rational roster moves that we can’t fathom the Dumars version of Flowers for Algernon.

I think it’s possible we could be good, but data points to a better chance at a lottery finish over any other outcome.

I mean, even the physical structure of the main Pistons blogs … it’s still searching for the past.

Matt Watson should re-color the background to roygbiv because this isn’t even remotely Detroit Bad Boys anymore … it’s anything but.

Both Natalie and Matt basically have blogs with outdated names.

In sum, I think we should nuke the internet.

Yikes. I agree with brgulker’s analysis, but 28-29 wins? I can’t believe we’ll be that bad, barring a major injury, but now I’m worried.

I do agree that (i) unless there’s a major roster change, the temptation to play smallball will be too hard to resist; and that (ii) smallball, with possible exceptions of very short periods against very specific opponent matchups, is just bad, period.

I am baffled by the idea that it could be an intentional plan to play smallball. Did we learn nothing from last year? BG may have a better attitude than AI, but AI’s attitude wasn’t the reason smallball didn’t work. And as brgulker keeps saying, our rebounding and defense are probably going to be even worse this year, even in a normal lineup.

All talk of Tayshaun as a power forward needs to be thrown out immediately. Although blessed with superior length and above average lateral speed, Prince simply does not have the strength to deal with even below-average orthodox power forward. (Rashard Lewis-types not included)

Our best chance at a cohesive offense would be to revert back to the Larry Brown days of yore, with Rip constantly running of high and low screens/curls, and letting Tay work off of iso’s on the box or at the top of the key. Looking at our current riffraff in the frontcourt, i’m inclined to say post scoring be damned. If it comes it comes, if not, kwame won’t be here forever.

My hope is that BG will fully embrace his role as The Microwave 2.0, and the CV plays like he has something to prove. If Kuester has the stuff (and I have a hunch that he does), I’d love to see him put Maxiell in more advantageous situations befitting his explosiveness as a key reserve.

We need to make time for Will Bynum. Simply because he has proven that he deserves it.

All of the caveats above are predicated on one man, Rodney Stuckey, and whether or not he can flourish as a floor leader who understands when to attack and when to facilitate. I hope to God he is working on that corkscrew jumper of his this summer. Perhaps he should seek the services of Nowitzki’s personal shooting coach. He did a wonderful job through the years helping Dirk develop an almost indefensible fadeaway and perfecting different release points on his shot.

but alas, I am rambling.

How does he come up with those numbers? Does he say?

roygbiv…hilarious.

@KRONIK: He wrote a book called Wages of Wins. There’s also stuff on his website that explains how he gets his numbers. I highly recommend it:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/05/21/simple-models-of-player-performance/
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/05/26/wins-produced-vs-win-score/
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/10/03/what-wins-produced-says-and-what-it-does-not-say/

@ TJ: Gabe brought up a good point yesterday or the day before: it’s possible that we’ll see the reverse of diminishing return happen with Wilcox and CV (but perhaps only CV). CV has never seen consistent big minutes, and he was paired with good rebounders at least some of the time; so, it’s possible he rebounded so poorly because his teammates were grabbing them all.

I think it’s possible that we’ll see diminishing returns, and I think it’s possible that CV can improve. I also think there’s room for Stuckey to improve. And obviously, our rookies could become productive players this season. I just ain’t bettin’ the farm on it.

What’s scary for me is how damn accurate his model is with respect to team wins. I think the average variance he has seen over the past several seasons has been +/- about 3 wins. So, unless we see major improvement from players or a major trade, we’re looking at 25-32 wins next season.

On a side note, has anyone else seen the reports that BG’s contract is actually worth 58.8 million and not the 52.2 million that was originally reported?

Even more depressing news, if you ask me.

Now we’re overpaying two SG’s, not just one.

As a life-long pistons fan who cried when Kwame donned our uniform, I STILL TO THIS DAY find it sad/hilarious that a man his size has the hands of a malnourished infant.

@ Kronik:

I posted several links to answer your question about how Berri gets his data. The comment is showing up as awaiting approval, I suspect because of a spam filter.

You can start here, though: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/07/19/the-magic-and-pistons-go-different-directions/

Just look at the links Dr. Berri has posted in his “signature” as it were. He closes every post with direct links that explain his metric in detail.

When Kelly Dwyer is on his game, he’s awesome. His article today ranking the best remaining unrestricted free agents is a good example:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Ranking-the-NBA-s-nine-best-unrestricted-free-ag?urn=nba,177670

“If your starting power forward goes down with injury, Gooden can put up 12 and 7 in his sleep. And he sleeps a lot.”

From KD’s list, the guy that still makes the most sense for us is Rasho, but if we can pick up Powe for the minimum I think it’s still a move we should look at. We’re not going to be in contention next year, and if he recovers fully he’ll be a huge bargain.

“And remember, his model is able to predict team wins with about 95% accuracy, and that’s well-documented and even acknowledged by his critics”

brgulker…when you say 95% accuracy, do you mean that he correctly picks all NBA teams season ending win total within +/- 5%?

It feels good to have new blood on the team. When I look at the lineup there are players that I actually want to watch play.

Stuckey/MFWB
Rip/BG/Washington
Prince/Daye/Summers
CV/Maxiell/Summers/Jerebko
Kwame/Wilcox/Jerebko

Concerning small ball,
It is not yet a given.
Only time will tell.

Hopefully QSter is smart enough to know the consequences of playing people out of position for an extended period of time. It’s his duty to make everybody accept their role, whatever it may be, and to work hard regardless of playing time towards the ultimate prize, a TEAM championship.

MCIAFI and had to deal with a core of stubborn veteran players whom, with the exception of Iverson had played together for a long time and were accustomed to things the way they were. He didn’t approach it the right way, but he didn’t have half the chance QSter does with a roster of new, young players in a season deemed as a rebuild.

Everything is up in the air and it is Q who will lay the foundation and get people to fall in line. He already has good rapport with Rip and Prince and I don’t think this years egos will clash like last years.

Yes we do have a log jam. No we shouldn’t resort to small ball. We don’t have to, we just have to hope QSter implements a winning system and the team buys into it.

@KRONIK:
If I say anything on this site you seem to have some sort of smart-ass remark.

Your comments are great, just not your flurry of trade ideas. You often repeat yourself, posting the same or similar trade idea in subsequent threads which the core of the community has likely already read. On top of that, imagine this: say a new poster shows up tomorrow and repeats, with varying levels of similarity, the trade ideas which you, Cody and others have talked about for the last month or two— with no recollection that those discussions already happened. They do it multiple times a day for weeks. You might find it a bit frustrating.

Not that it would be their fault, though. I mentioned many threads ago that an overhaul to the DBB comment system would help a lot, and a reliable search system where readers can search comments would blunt this issue a bit. I doubt any commenter will look back before posting, but it’d be a good way for the vets to share a bit of history with the newer crew.

I don’t mean to be a prick, but seriously, it’s like pulling teeth reading the same damn thing every day. “I know y’all said we should give okafor/boozer trade ideas a rest, but here are 14 more okafor/boozer trade ideas for you”

Kronik, I think the veteranos around here are still on trollwatch from last season, when there was an sudden immigration of not just Pro, but blindly Pro-Iverson fans, and those jerkyboys came in and stirred shit up since the trade went down to shortly after his pine riding ass was booted from the Greektown for the last time.

From what I’ve seen over my short time here, there’s two dudes on here that will ride your ass with rare vigor, MFMike Payne is not one of them. He just veto’d your wacky trades 5 threads ago and doesn’t wanna read over them again. Not too much to ask.

@brgulker – confirmation bias! Nice.

What do think of this hypothesis – we might be conforming, too.

Can I co-sign MP a million times over? I’d like to put a moratorium on all trade ideas, not just the oft-repeated-never-ever-gonna happen Boozer and Okafor trades. I understand it’s the off-season and we’re all bored and desperately hoping for something, anything positive to happen, but enough with the trade proposals. Playing the what-if game is an exercise in aggravation.

In the immortal words of my high school wrestling coach: coulda, woulda, shoulda, and if your Aunt had balls she’d be your Uncle.

I will now go back to silently lurking in the night waiting for the pre-season.

So all I am saying is that he didn’t have to read them, not be a prick about it. That’s not too much to ask either. Regardless of whether or not you don’t think Mike Payne is one of them, he was the ONLY one. It wasn’t just that trade example I gave, it was a lot of other times where I posted my opinions and he just didn’t seem to like them. Which is fine, people disagree, but it can be done in a more professional manner. Sauce and Boney never really gave me shit, whom I believe you are referring to Skylar. But honestly, it doesn’t matter, I just wanted to tell him to stop being a dick to me. I have no ill feelings towards someone I have never even met.

Oh, and one more thing: the Berri prediction does not take into account the projected growth of Rodney Stuckey. I think we all hope that Rodney Stuckey accounts for more wins next season than Marcin Gortat or we’re in some deep level of trouble that none of us can fathom.

I post on a few sites, and the other sites I post on love to talk possible trade ideas, so if you guys don’t want to see ANYMORE trade ideas WHAT-SO-EVER, it’s not going to kill me. I can just post them over on the other sites, but somebody better let Cody know.

Oh I think we can fathom it Other Matt…Lottery.

KRONIK,

At least I understand that complaining about the trade ideas is fighting a losing battle. Your little personal feud with MP gave me a window to jump in and say, “he’s not the only one.” I would suggest that you get some thicker skin if you’re going to continue to hang out here because if you run afoul of Sauce or Boney (with love, guys) who can be 10,000 times the prick MP has supposedly been, you might find yourself a heap of tears cowering in the corner.

@ Jim:

I’m shooting from the hip here. The average variance year-over-year is +/- 3 wins. In other words, on average, Berri predicts how many wins a team will achieve with a standard deviation of 3 wins.

So, we will win 25-32 games, barring 1) significant improvement from our players or 2) a major trade.

Forget the 95% comment. It just muddies the point I was trying to make.

It’s not just the lottery, Kron, it’s deep into the lottery.

@ Other Matt:

Whose projected growth? In other words, whose word do we take on how much Stuckey can/will improve?

I think he will improve, but even if he does become Billups by next season, we’re talking about an additional 5-7 wins.

@KRONIK:
I apologize for being a prick. I’m sure with the trade ideas behind us, we’ll get along just fine.

Personally, I’m not a fan of all the trade proposals. When I see them, for the most part I skim over them.

As a long time DBB reader, I hope the commenting system does not change. Yes it has been a bit different lately, but it is the offseason. When football season starts we’ll probably lose many of the fantasy freaks.

Also, I like it when the newbs get chastised by the weary vets, its entertaining. When Rob G busted out Anthony D of Deeee-Troit basketball fame it rivaled the best of Law and Order. I haven’t laughed that hard in awhile.

@brgulker,

I’m not going to pretend to understand all the factors that go into Berri’s calculations. I understand the claim that he hits everybody with a 95% accuracy rating (which I find extremely dubious, fwiw), but I have MAJOR problems with taking as gospel a metric that says Gortat (at 10 mpg last season) accounted for more wins than Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon.

@Other Matt:
I will now go back to silently lurking in the night waiting for the pre-season.

pauses for a moment of silence DBB misses you, OM. Be less of a stranger!

@Rotten Atom:
When Rob G busted out Anthony D of Deeee-Troit basketball fame it rivaled the best of Law and Order. I haven’t laughed that hard in awhile.

Agreeeeed. Rob G, + 1,000. (again, viewers per day)

Well, I’m home sick from work which explains my presence today.

Some people have mentioned Cole Aldrich as a possible draft pick for next year, I’m not sure if I would like him on our team. He is a big man that can shoot out to 18 feet, but he just seems to be too soft to me. He reminds me of Darko in how soft he plays. Plus, his draftexpress review says he may be more of a system player than anything. Noting how at the Lebron James Skills Academy he looked limited in the offensive drills and in 5-on-5 action.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cole-Aldrich-1250/

@Other Matt

Berri’s metric is pretty good on predicting team wins, but it doesn’t work as well when divvying up responsibility for them. Rebounding is extremely important (since it prevents the opposing team from getting another possession or extends the current possession), so Berri weights it highly. But rebounding on an individual level is not as crucial, due to diminishing returns.

KRON,

As the resident Jayhawk fan, I’ll weigh in on Aldrich. I love the guy. He’s never going to be good offensively, but he’s not a bad shooter and can clean up the garbage around the rim. He’s an underrated athlete, blocks a lot of shots, and rebounds well. He will be a good defender and useful in the right rotation in the NBA. Do I like him in the top 10? No. After that, I wouldn’t have hesitations.

(Disclaimer: I’m biased)

Small ball can work, but you need to have the right personnel to play it. With hand checking being outlawed on the perimeter, if you are able to field a line-up with 4 good shooters as well as a couple guys who can create their own shot you can space the floor and put a ton of pressure on opposing teams. Boston played a good amount of small ball in the playoffs when they won it two years ago and often closed the last 6 minutes of the 4th with a line-up of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Posey and KG.

For comparisons sake last year we put out Stuckey, AI, Rip, Tay and Sheed. Boston had more shooters as well as bigger guys and better rebounders at the 2-5 positions. We don’t have the right people to play a true small ball line-up yet, but I’m ok with a 3 guard line-up for streches, especially against other teams second units. I just don’t want to see Tay at the 4.

Don’t mess around, Other Matt. There’s no bigger deutschbag than Mike Payne.

@Sauce:
That term needs to go in the Urban Dictionary :)

Thanks brgulker for the explanation…I guess we’ll have to see how it plays out. I just don’t see how we are 11 wins worse then last year.

If a guy call pull off a triple-double with blocks— in an NCAA tournament game no less— he seems like the type of big that would fit in nicely on the Pistons.

*can

Hey I got idea since the Magic like to spend the cash, maybe the Pistons can offer Kwame for Gortat. That will save them some money in 2010 and still give them a back up for Howard that’s not going to complain about not starting.

@ Birdman

Rebounding is extremely important (since it prevents the opposing team from getting another possession or extends the current possession), so Berri weights it highly. But rebounding on an individual level is not as crucial, due to diminishing returns.

I think that’s oversimplified to the point of being misleading, personally. Berri clearly demonstrates that the best teams in the NBA outrebound their opponents, and he links rebounding specifically to extending possessions (O Rebounds) and gaining possession from one’s opponent (D Rebounds). The thing I object to in your comment is that individual rebounding isn’t crucial. If rebounds are vital to success, how can individual rebounds not be crucial?

@ Jim: I see two reasons that we’ll be worse than last year: 1) Defense 2) Rebounding.

We’re worse with respect to both right now (barring improvement or trade).

Joel, good point on Aldrich. My reservations about him are strictly because I don’t know if he can consistently create his own shot at the NBA level. He’s good around the rim at the college level, but against better athletes I’m not sure he can replicate that success. He has the potential to be a great defender. I don’t think he’ll get there, but that’s his ceiling. I think he’ll be a good defender at the NBA level.

I think Aldrich’s ceiling is Rasho Nesterovic, IMO. I’m not saying he would be a horrible pick, but with him being projected to be a lottery pick, I don’t want him. I would much rather have Andrew Ogilvy in the late teens(which is where I hope we’re picking, maybe early 20’s). If DeMarcus Cousins comes out after his freshman year at Kentucky, he would be another possibility. To a lesser extent, I wouldn’t mind having DaJuan Summers’ teammate, Greg Monroe either.

@brgulker

Rebounding is an important and necessary skill. I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise; my words were poorly chosen.
My understanding of Berri’s number-crunching is that he gives full credit to the one player who gets the rebound from keeping the ball from the other team. However, the player who collected the rebound was competing (theoretically) for the ball with nine other players, not five. In other words, a teammate could have gotten the rebound as well and the benefit for the team would be the same.

That makes more sense, Birdman. That’s a good objection to Berri, I think, and I’ve never heard a complete response other than “We’re handling that in the next book.”

I’ve heard his defenders argue that one way to counter your objection is to track excellent defenders when they change teams. A good rebounder is a good rebounder, regardless of who his teammates are.

But on the flip side of the coin you’re arguing, isn’t scoring just as much a product of team offense? Is it really fair to value scorers more highly than rebounders if both are a function of the team?

I ask because I agree with Berri’s fundamental premise: that scoring dominates player evaluation in the NBA.

I’ve heard his defenders argue that one way to counter your objection is to track excellent defenders when they change teams. A good rebounder is a good rebounder, regardless of who his teammates are.

I left out: or when a good rebounder’s teammates change (and the good rebounder remains on the same team).

@Rotten Atom -

Funny you should say that, since I’ve been watching L&O nonstop for the past month. I think I got hooked while watching TNT’s coverage of the playoffs. My only regret is not getting a plea bargain out of the guy.

I think a good model that we could use to project this team’s success would be to analyize the stretch that the team played last year after the trade and before Dice came back. The teams were constructed very similarly. They played 17 games and went 9-8. Of course, they were inconsistent, but they actually played very well at times, including wins over the Cavs and Lakers.

I would think that the overall package of Gordon, CV31, Wilcox, and Q-ster would yield greater success than AI, Unmotivated Sheed, Amir, and MCIAFI. Throw in the rookies to replace Herrmann’s production, and consistent PT for Bynum, and there is reason to believe that they will be competitive.

If I may synthesize all that’s said here:

It’s a cypher. We have no freakin’ clue what’s going to happen. As powerful as we feel with the Net and stats and precedent and airchair GM philosophy, this season is a huge question mark.

I, for one, am really excited about this season. I also am afraid that if things don’t go well right away, the fans are going to abandon this team.

@brgulker — Thanks for the post. 28 wins is depressing. I’d still take the 5% (confirmation/conformity bias and all). The 28 wins is formulated “with 2008-09 Wins Produced and WP48.” Normally, this works with teams/players whose production is fairly consistent…but…last year was a serious anomaly. I won’t rehash the reasons for it..but I would say to do it right, I’d just take the games without AI on the team and perhaps factor in the 07-08 season as well. I suspect that the metric would produce dramatically different results. IBID for the free agent signings. Are you going to say the Wilcox contribution/win numbers were typical last year? BG (once Rose got on the team). The metric suggests that the 50 win claims may be overly optimistic, but if anyone gave me an over/under bet on 28.5 wins, I’d take the over and throw a lot of cash on it.

@brgulker

I completely agree with you and Berri about scoring being overvalued, monetarily, in the NBA. And it’s more scoring totals than scoring efficiency, for the matter. I think that we will see teams going away from that more and more as understanding of better basketball statistics improve.

the pistons are going to suck this year… plain and simple. too many teams in the NBA this year have upped their level of talent, and detroit didn’t make the moves that they needed to. ben gordon and charlie are good players, but neither of them fill the holes of the broken down pistons. i like the rebuilding process with those two though, because with a legitimate big man and a good development of rodney stuckey, the pistons could be a dangerous team in the next couple of years. lets hope for the bosh man and maybe a lottery pick for next summer…

@ Illinois Pistons Lover: I’ll throw some serious cheddar down on that too. I honestly predict we will be somewhere between 38-42 wins, which, sadly enough, would be good enough to get into the playoffs in the East. However, I do think we could possibly do as bad as 35 wins(worst case) or as good as 45 wins(best case). I would love to be able to say we gel completely and don’t miss a beat on our way to 50+ wins but that just wouldn’t be logical. I think there will be a lot of exciting games this year, meaning we will probably lose a lot of games at the wire because our defense will have let us down. However, if it does happen like that, and we still win 38-42 games, I would be VERY optimistic about the following year. I’m just happy that there doesn’t seem to be as much drama on this team as last year(thanks AI and Sheed – maybe RIP can stay in line now).

@brgulker…I agree we are worse defensively and likely rebounding too, although I don’t think there will be a huge difference in our rebounding ability. With respect to our offense and coach I think we’ve improved though. To me the gain in coaching and offense will offset the loss of defense and rebounding. So I see us having a similar skill level as last years team except we are much younger with an average age of 25 now.

@Rob G: How’s the little guy doing? Does he need a Tayshaun Prince jersey yet? My guy has pretty much out grown it and I’d be happy to mail it to you. Babies and toddlers can be Pistons fans, too.

(wait — you DID have a kid a while back, right? Unless I’m thinking of someone else……)

@ Illinois Piston Lover:

Normally, this works with teams/players whose production is fairly consistent…but…last year was a serious anomaly.

I’m not going to deny MCIAFI nor his influence on our team. We underachieved last year, and I blame MCIAFI for a good chunk of that. However, I don’t think Berri’s prediction is based only on this season.

As a reference point, take any of the returning Piston veterans. This past season, none of them strayed very far from their career levels of production.

(As an aside: Of those who left, Billups declined slightly, Sheed declined, but Dice actually improved.)

Rip is very unproductive, just like Gordon whose numbers are almost identical, because all he does is score the basketball. He doesn’t get many assists, he’s prone to turnovers, he doesn’t rebound well, and he doesn’t generate any steals or blocks. All he does is score. (When you’ve got a young, healthy Ben Wallace, you need a guy like Rip who can score because Ben will take care of the rest)

Stuckey has yet to demonstrate that he can do anything consistently other than score.

Tay measures up just as one would suspect, he’s above average, good but not great.

Bynum’s basically the same as Stuckey: a guy who scores but doesn’t do much else.

Maxiel: I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because of MCIAFI-DNP. It’s hard to produce when you have no confidence.

Of the returning guys, we have several players who score and that’s all they do: Rip, Stuckey, and Bynum.

Of the new guys we signed, two of the three fit that bill almost exactly: BG (almost identical stats to Rip) and CV. When you look at CV’s totals, they look nice (decent scoring average and perceived decent rebound numbers). However, when you compare those to the median production at PF across the league, they just aren’t very good. His shooting efficiency in particular is troubling; he’s a very low percentage shooter for a PF.

(Unfortunately, I don’t know Wilcox’s career WP48; I suspect last year was an anomaly, but I doubt he’s any better than Kwame).

Additionally, Berri recently ran an analysis of the last 10(?) NBA champions; all of those teams had at least one player with a .200+ WP48. Last season, Dice was our only player in that range, and he’s now wearing silver and black.

Anyway, Illinois Piston Lover, that’s a long way of saying I don’t think that Berri’s prediction is based solely on last season, because last season’s numbers tend to correspond with each individual’s career numbers very closely — or at least those players to whom the bulk of the minutes will be given.

@ Jim:

To me the gain in coaching and offense will offset the loss of defense and rebounding.

This is a point that’s been raised a couple times, and I keep responding the same way.

Over the past two decades, NBA champions are top-tier defensive teams. In other words, the general rule in the NBA is this: In order to be successful, you have to rebound and defend with the best of them.

Barring dramatic improvement of our players, we won’t do either.

(Do I sound like a broken record yet? :) )

Let me put it another way. Does anyone think it’s coincidence that the Phoenix Suns didn’t win a championship over the past 5 years? Or, is it possible that they failed to do so because their style of play isn’t conducive to winning?

And we’re nowhere near as potent as Phoenix was, to be sure.

@ brgulker:

I agree with you… An offensive minded, weak defensive team is not going to be a true contender. But the Pistons weren’t contenders this year anyway. They could improve dramatically this year, and still not be legitimate contenders.

And good defense is largely a result of scheme and effort. If Q knows what he’s doing and the players buy in, they have enough athleticism to be adequate defensively. Obviously, adequate doesn’t make them a contender. But, again, they weren’t contenders anyway.

@brgulker

Phoenix’s untimely injuries (and suspensions) played a large role in their playoff losses, as well.

You don’t need to be in the top-tier of anything to win more than 28 games.

As for Phoenix, their style was clearly conducive to winning, as they won a shitload of games. Was it conducive to winning in the playoffs? I’d say sort of. They competed hard, but always came up short. Of course, this might be a different conversation if Robert Horry hadn’t hip checked Nash and gotten STAT suspended.

And good defense is largely a result of scheme and effort.

I certainly think that’s true, at least to a point. There is a legitimate chance that we could improve defensively, at least in terms of team defense.

However, there are two stats that are tracked specifically related to defense that I don’t think we’re going to make leaps and bounds of progress in, regardless of who our coach is: steals and blocks.

Take a guy like Ben Wallace in his prime. He played harder than anyone, and he played in a system where defense was valued.

But, as an individual, he had a unique talent and the the athletic ability to block shots and steal the basketball.

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander in this case. You can’t teach a silky smooth stroke like the one Austin Daye has. But you also can’t teach the uncanny talent like Ben Wallace’s either.

The problem I see is that we don’t have many guys with a very high defensive ceiling, and so I don’t know how much we as a team can realistically improve.

@ Birdman and Colin

Good points about suspension and injuries.

Phoenix is probably a bad example, because between Amare and Marion, they got a shitload of rebounds.

Maybe a better example would be a team like NY that Isiah assembled, i.e., a whole bunch of guys who could score the ball but couldn’t do anything else.

Not that we’re going to be that bad, but I do see some similarities.

I dunno about those numbers. If Rip’s hurt because he’s too one dimensional, what about Vince Carter and his 9.3 wins produced? Rip should really have a lower WP48 than Redick? Anthony Johnson is really going to contribute more wins to the Magic than Rip?

I wanted to chime in, but I’m not really sure what I can add.

I think I’m solidly in the brgulker/gabe camp at the moment. Otherwise known as the “aliens have abducted Joe D and replaced him with a doppelganger who’s mission it is to ruin the Pistons” camp.

Can small ball “work”? Can it be “effective”?

I think we’re dealing in relative terms.

Can it work better than it did last year. Yes

Can it be an effective strategy for winning NBA games? Yes

I don’t think either of those are the standards, unfortunately. I know it’s been said repeatedly; the Pistons aren’t going to compete for the NBA championship next year. However, I don’t think any of us are interested in sitting around here thinking up ways for the team to eek out 40 wins, or to be a more “entertaining” team (pardon my French, but fuck that shit. WINNING is entertaining).

To use a baking analogy, this team seems like someone went through the recipe book for baking a championship team and screwed with all the measurements.

“Let’s see here, it says to add two cups of rebounding. Well, I don’t have any of that so we’ll just skip it. Hmm… it also says I’ll need a quart of defense. You know, I bet I can just compensate by adding extra offense. Yeah, that should make up for it”.

You can bet that 1 hour later that shit won’t taste like a pie, and it sure won’t sell at the bake-sale.

Joe D is doing one of three things here:

1. Trying to redefine what makes a successful basketball team. He’s done this before, to an extent. The 2004 team wasn’t constructed like anyone thought a Championship team should be; but they still won it all. Can he do it again? Is he such a super-genius that he gets bored trying to construct a winning team in any of the predefined methods?

2. Making it up as he goes along. He couldn’t get the dominating big man or rebounding demon he wanted, so he made due.

3. Playing the ole’ rope-a-dope. He’s hoping for a weakness in another GM that will allow him to trade one of our redundant but valuable pieces (Rip/Tayshaun) for something we don’t have but need (big man dominance).

Personally, I’m scared we’re in the #1 or #2 boat. There’s a slim hope that we’re really still sitting at #3.

Steals and blocks are great, but Ben Wallace was a freak. And, as you alluded to, the system allowed him to excel.

Blocks and steals are also often indicators of guys that gamble way too much and don’t play very good team defense (AI, Sam Dalembert, etc)- guys going for the highlight reel instead of making smart, winning plays.

brgulker…I completely agree we aren’t NBA championship material and that you almost always need to have a top tier defense to win a ‘ship, but I thought we were comparing this years squad to last years squad? Neither squad is/was championship caliber…it’s just my opinion, but I think the net gains and losses of this offseason will result in a similar overall record.

@ Shinons:

I dunno about those numbers. If Rip’s hurt because he’s too one dimensional, what about Vince Carter and his 9.3 wins produced? Rip should really have a lower WP48 than Redick? Anthony Johnson is really going to contribute more wins to the Magic than Rip?

I don’t mean this to sound like a cop-out, but that’s a very specific objection that Berri responds to in his book.

I also don’t mean to advertise, but I would say that regardless of whether or not you buy into his system when you’ve finished the book, you won’t think about the NBA the same way after reading it.

I don’t have the time (or desire, frankly) to replicate how he gets his numbers, but I do think that if you read through the links I posted earlier (assuming you’re interested) or if you take the time to read the 2-3 chapters in his book where he outlines his method explicitly, you’ll have a different view of productivity than you did going in.

“Defensive ceiling” is a phrase that I think shouldn’t even be discussed as a rational idea concerning the NBA. Defense is nothing but effort and work. If you’re good enough of an athlete to play in the NBA, then you’re good enough to be the Defensive Player of the Year. Tyrus Thomas could block 3 shots and pull down 14 rebounds a game IF HE TRIED. Stromile Swift, Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, Amare Staudemire, etc. etc. etc. 95% of the bigs in the league are as athletic if not MORE athletically gifted than Ben was (and taller too)— they just don’t give a shit. If anything, Ben proved that with literally no talent whatsoever, you can still make BANK and be an All-Star if you just hustle and give a shit in general.

That’s why I don’t really worry about what guys have done defensively in the past. Would anybody say that Paul Pierce was even remotely interested in defense before KG came to town? Suddenly he’s one of the tougher wing defenders in the league. Hell, Popovich routinely turns players not known for their D into stellar defenders, team/individual or otherwise. Wilt the Stilt completely changed his entire game a decade into his career because the situation called for it, essentially turning into Bill Russel for his last few years. I’m not guaranteeing by any stretch of the imagination that we’ve got the 2010 DPOTY on this squad, but players do get better at defense if they’re preached defense and practice defense by a coach that demands defense. Van Gundy even turned McGrady into a solid team defender, and I don’t even get the vibe McGrady knows he’s alive much less playing basketball half the time.

@ Big Z:

I think Joe is doing a mroe thoughtful version of your Option 2, with #3 in the back of his mind. Given his options, he is doing his best to acquire assets at reasonable rates. The perfect addition to this team is a Dwight Howard type. Unfortunately for us (and the rest of the league), there’s only one Dwight Howard type in the NBA, and he isn’t for sale.

If this team doesn’t fit on the court (and nobody really knows if it will), he has the contracts to trade for better pieces. A trade will happen. It just might not happen before the season starts.

@Garrett – yes, five months today! And yes, Teddy will wear a hand-me-down Tay jersey if you want to send it along. I know exactly what you’re going through – just went through his clothes today to root out all the 0-3 onesies to donate to Goodwill.

brgulker…I completely agree we aren’t NBA championship material and that you almost always need to have a top tier defense to win a ’ship, but I thought we were comparing this years squad to last years squad? Neither squad is/was championship caliber…it’s just my opinion, but I think the net gains and losses of this offseason will result in a similar overall record.

Yeah, I’m arguing more than one thing, which is unnecessarily confusing. I’m trying to make two points.

1) Given the predictive power of Berri’s model, I’m inclined to think that the current roster is a slight net loss from last season. But frankly, I’d rather be lottery-bound than the 8th seed in the playoffs next season. That’s frustrating, though, because we had as much financial flexibility as anyone going into this summer … I feel like we could have done better (with Gabe, going all the way back to Rip’s extension).

2) I’m also trying to make a bigger point about my frustration and confusion with Dumars. In the past, he has assembled teams that are built upon the foundation of defense and rebounding (which also happen to be things that NBA champions tend to do well). I don’t see how any of his moves since the Billups trade help us in either of those areas.

Just wanted to make a quick comment. Folks seem to be harping on the fact that we won’t be able to defend or rebound with small ball. I agree that our defense will suffer with our current roster, but let’s see how the team defense pans out. I think Jod might be keeping RIP for his defense at the guard position. What other guard on the roster can defend better (doesn’t say much I know)? I bet he’ll possibly move him next year or before the trade deadline when teams are looking for an extra boost before playoffs.

You need to be a strong rebounding team when you miss a lot of shots. Jod has built a team of shooters who will shoot much better than previous years (at least that looks to be the plan). I’m not trying to simplify things, but rebounding might be a bit overrated in this case. We’re used to watching our pistons launch brick after brick with no one in position to get rebounds and assume that the problem is bad rebounding when it’s really our guys didn’t shoot well or create their own shot.

Maybe a better example would be a team like NY that Isiah assembled, i.e., a whole bunch of guys who could score the ball but couldn’t do anything else.

Not that we’re going to be that bad, but I do see some similarities.

@brgulker

I think this is where the adverse reactions to the WOW predictions come in. This squad is without a doubt at least as talented if not more (I’m in the “much more” camp) than any of those bad Knicks teams you speak of, not to mention that we have an infinitely better run organization that generally gets more out of less (talent-wise) because of the quality of people we have making decisions.

The Knicks won 32 games last year. And we’re only supposed to win 28? I think that’s the only real disconnect. Because otherwise, the stats are right on the mark, especially with regards to defense and rebounding. There are just too many hidden variables involved though, as they say in quantum physics. Those little intangible pushers/movers that account for the shit that doesn’t make sense and can’t be measured.

As somebody said before, if I could bet on the over/under for 28 wins, I’m putting every bit of cash I can borrow on the over.

@ Joel:

Tyrus Thomas could block 3 shots and pull down 14 rebounds a game IF HE TRIED. Stromile Swift, Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, Amare Staudemire, etc. etc. etc. 95% of the bigs in the league are as athletic if not MORE athletically gifted than Ben was (and taller too)– they just don’t give a shit.

Two things:

I think you’re downplaying defensive talent. Take Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, or Michael Jordan. They all worked extremely hard — I agree with you on that — but they also had an uncanny sense (i.e., talent) for putting themselves in the right position at the right time. IMO, that’s just as much a talent as any aspect of the game — and while you can instill work ethic and effort as a coach, you can’t teach talent.

Second, I think you’re sort of proving my point in a round about way. Guys like Ben Wallace are extremely hard to find (guys who play hard and are talented). The departure of Ben Wallace has arguably been our biggest hole, and in spite of all the money we had to throw around this summer, we didn’t even make an attempt to plug it.

Further, I’m not saying our new guys can’t improve but that even a significant improvement is only going to make them serviceable defensively. BG and CV are notoriously bad defenders. A significant improvement and they become average defenders.

Big Z…to use the analogy you were working with, I would say that the recipe definitely isn’t complete yet. Coming into last year we had a good, aging team, that wasn’t championship caliber. 4 of our 5 main guys were 31+ and none of them had any room for growth as players. Barring a Pau Gasol falling into our laps there wasn’t a trade that would make us legit title contenders again. 30+ year old players with no upside don’t have a lot of trade value.

One year later we sit here with only one person over 30 (Rip) and only one other over 27 (Tay). We even have likely replacements for both of them with BG for Rip and Daye for Tay. There is no doubt we have an unbalanced team right now that isn’t championship contender, but name me one team that had a long elite run that had ran it’s course and completely re-loaded within a one year span?

I’m sure Joe D knows this team needs more defense and rebounding to be a title contender. It would be great if after one offseason all the pieces fit perfectly, but that’s not realistic. The good thing is that we are a very young team (average age of 25) with room for growth, so we have time to see how guys develop over the next couple years and add the right ingredients (more defense and rebounding) to make it work.

As somebody said before, if I could bet on the over/under for 28 wins, I’m putting every bit of cash I can borrow on the over.

I want you to be right. I really, really do :)

It’s just that Berri’s model has such incredibly accurate predictive power with respect to team wins that it makes it hard not to be pessimistic.

Joel:

IMO, defense is a skill just like shooting is a skill. Both are improvable, but it takes time and effort, and each player has a natural ceiling on how much they can improve in either area.

Stuckey can practice shooting three pointers every day, and he’ll likely improve a great deal over the years, but he’ll still never be as good a three point shooter as Steve Nash. Players just don’t improve particular skills that much, each player has their own individual strengths, and they can work to improve on their weaknesses, but NBA players generally are who they are.

Defense is the same. Can any fringe NBA player just decide to start playing harder, and suddenly become an elite defender like Big Ben or Bruce Bowen?

If defense is “nothing but effort and work,” why are there so few truly great defenders? An NBA player can’t just hop out of bed and turn himself into a Ben Wallace level defender just by playing harder, any more than someone can suddenly shoot like Nash.

Rob G: Send me your mailing address! <a href="mailto:garrettgarrettelliott.com">garrett@garrettelliott.com and I’ll drop it in the mail this week!

I’m not able to get on board with 28 wins. To reference last season, that puts us in 14th in the east, ahead of only washington. Out west, we do a little better, 10th, ahead of minny, memhis, okc, clips and kings. While i’m not familiar with the metric that brgulker has cursed us with, i’ll have a hard time agreeing with that total. I’m on the optimist wagon (35 wins over/under).

I’ll even take the over on that one craig! Put me down for $50.

I’m still standing firm at 36 wins, 9th seed. I won’t complain, however, if we really do dip to about 28. I’m confident that if we aren’t clicking by the trade deadline, Joe will move either Rip or Tay. One of those two has to go, thanks to Joe’s signing of BG, and the worse we look to start the better chance we have of Joe making a mid-season move.

Second, at 28 wins, we’d have the odds for the 5th pick in the 2010 draft, which could climb or drop a bit. I can’t even remember the last time we had a pick so high. It feels like decades. I don’t know, maybe darko I’m blocking out some sort of bad memory?

Sinking to 28 for just one season could have a great impact on future success— in the form of a trade of Rip/Tay and a high lottery pick in 2010. I do, however, think 28 is unrealistic, and mid thirties is where we’re headed with this current roster.

Pistonscast is still boycotting Small ball.

It’s way past time for Rip to go!

Boy oh boy lemme tell ya, the annual season prediction contest is gonna be a real humdinger this year!

@BRGULKER (Berri):

Berri’s formula may be great, but it is subject to the data available. I don’t think he has any sort of regression model. He simply seems to make wins per 48 min calculations and then project minutes. The numbers are quite different if you ignore last year (Iverson) and plug in the year before (or in Wilcox’s case, 2 years prior, the last time he played with a team that wasn’t forced to tank):
Tay 8 vs. 7.3 = .3
Rip 6.6 vs. 1.9 = 4.7
Kwame 2.4 vs. Wilcox (06-7) 5.7 = 3.3
Maxiel 2.9 vs. 5.2 = 2.3
          Total 10.6 above that 28 number, which puts it at 39 wins. If you add Stuckey’s sophomore slump, Daye, MFWB at the end of the year and any intangibles from Q-star and the team comes out mid to high 40s. Again, going to the over/under argument. Do you think the remaining pistons are going to play more like 08-09 or 07-08 next year? I didn’t follow Berri’s wp48 calculation so my numbers are subject to per 48 recalibration, but I’m also just adding old numbers. Maybe Rip isn’t the 6.6, but he isn’t last year’s 1.9.

Where did you get these figures?

Tay 8 vs. 7.3 = .3
Rip 6.6 vs. 1.9 = 4.7
Kwame 2.4 vs. Wilcox (06-7) 5.7 = 3.3
Maxiel 2.9 vs. 5.2 = 2.3

Also, Berri’s method is based entirely on regression analysis.

One thing that’s lost in this whole discussion of next season is that the 2004 team didn’t just show up overnight. The organization tasted success in 01-02, improved in 02-03 learning what it took in the playoffs, then won it all in 03-04. Learning how to win is an iterative process. The Lakers needed a KG injury and an extra season to figure out how to win with the group they have. Next season is an opportunity to test out the new mix of players, figure out where we’re good and where we need help and how we can tinker with our group moving forward. We’re realistically 2-3 years away from legitimately competing, and we should all be okay with that. We have an interesting group of players and have some flexibility moving forward (in that we can trade some established vets with championship experience if the new acquisitions pan out).

I guess my point here is that no matter what the win total is next year, I’ll be happy if we’ve shown growth and promise by the end of the season.

“Learning how to win is an iterative process.” Thank you.

If defense is "nothing but effort and work," why are there so few truly great defenders?

Laziness.

I’m just not feeling too good about small ball. As stated a billion times, small ball will get you no where fast. As a die hard Piston fan, I will be optimistic and hope for the best.

There is a part of me that believes Tay’s contract that will expire in 2011 will be the most valuable in possible sign-n-trades during next year’s off season. Maybe Daye or Summers can really make a difference and miraculously learn how to play D. Hell maybe the whole team can buy into a system and be pretty good. Who knows?

I will enjoy the games this year minus the drama from the past few seasons….

DEEEETROOOOOIIIT SMAAALLLL BAAAAAAAL lol

I’ve already made my point on the defense issue, but why is there an assumption that we are giving up on rebounding? Check out Sheed’s rebounding numbers from the early part of his career compared with Villanueva. Villanueva looks on track to be a better rebounder than Sheed. Certainly we will miss Dyess, but in the long term where is the dropoff expected?

Yeah, my impression was that Sheed was a pretty mediocre rebounder. Dyess left a pretty big void, though.

“…BG and CV are notoriously bad defenders.”

Proof? This idea gets thrown around a lot like it’s a well-known fact.

The individual numbers on BG are the same as Rip’s, and like I pointed out in an earlier post, the Bulls’ defense in Skiles’ first 3 years there was ranked 2nd, 7th, and 1st overall. If he was that bad on defense, it clearly didn’t effect the team defense too much. And if he truly is that bad, then this is proof-positive that a good team-defense clearly makes up for individual shortcomings.

In CV’s case, he’s been a bench player for two bad teams where his only job was to shoot-shoot-shoot for the 20 minutes that he played each game. He’s young, skilled, and very athletic— let’s see how he does now that he’s been given the privilege of a starting job and the defensive expectations that come along with said privilege.

@Joel

Alternatively, there is more of an incentive to score (or rebound or get assists) than there is to defending, even when steals and blocks show up in the box score.

I believe Sauce, Rob G and Shinons are with me when I say:

I liked basketball when it was decided on the court and not in the offseason with all the fucked up algorithms that fuckheads come up with to make brgulker and other assholes preach to the rest of us about how pathetic our favorite basketball teams will be before they (and the new guys) even step on the floor.

Tell berri to go back in time to 2001 and ask him to come up with the win percentages for the gathering of assholes Rick Carlisle was forced to coach then. I can’t fucking imagine that the core that eventually won the title had a much higher win “factor” than our current team.

Fuck berri, fuck Hollinger and fuck the mouth breathing followers that hang on to every math equation they throw out there. They could make a math equation and statistic to make your team look unbeatable OR shitty..

get bent.

Sheed was a horrific rebounder. As much as I loved the guy, there’s no excuse for that much size, length, and talent to not put up at least 20 and 10— hell, 20 OR 10— even once in his career. The original Lamar Odom.

Shinons:

Dice was the only reason we weren’t murdered on the boards last season.

Unfortunately Dice became a crutch for Curry, who then proceeded to completely wear him out with too many minutes.

Also, Sheed and Amir were our 2nd and 4th best defensive rebounders last season, respectively. Wilcox and CV are both solid defensive rebounders (and CV is a comparable overall rebounder to Sheed), but neither has ever put up defensive rebounding numbers as good as Dice or Sheed did last season.

Last season we were fairly weak on the boards, and that coupled with inefficient offense was central to our struggles. Now, our two main big man replacements, CV for Sheed and Wilcox for Dice, are both a probable downgrade in defensive rebounding (if they don’t improve on their past stats). So a damaging weakness from last season has gotten even worse, that’s why we should be worried.

@ Joel:

Proof?

Just about any scouting report that’s been written about them in the past 3 seasons.

@ Boney:

I liked basketball when it was decided on the court and not in the offseason with all the fucked up algorithms that fuckheads come up with to make brgulker and other assholes preach to the rest of us about how pathetic our favorite basketball teams will be before they (and the new guys) even step on the floor.

I used to like you.

@Birdman

True, but you would think all these freak athletes would take a lesson from Ben— he got paid a close-to-max contract in his thirties by literally doing nothing except hustling and playing defense. Especially to these young kids that just seem to want to get paid and live the baller lifestyle, isn’t making $15mil/per, starting All-Star games, and winning 4 DPOTY awards going to net you more fame, pussy, endorsements, bling, etc., than pretending you’re an offensive talent and getting less than the mid-level to put up 8/5 off the bench for the Grizzlies or some other shit team?

Granted, situation is everything, but something tells me if the Stromile Swifts of the world ever figured out the “secret,” maybe their situations would improve?

@ brgulker

awww, poor you.

Aren’t you the same person that said to me last season that Detroit has no chance of competing next season no matter what they did this offseason?

and uh “just about any scouting report written in the past 3 seasons” isn’t proof, it’s hear-say. You’re not a scout, you hear what Doug Collins and Marv Albert want you to hear.

get bent.

Along with the moratorium on trades involving Boozer or Okafor any chance we can also have a moratorium on vitriol? No? Okay. Well, I tried.

I like slam dunk shots
And Mr. Austin Croshere
I do not care for.

Proof?

Just about any scouting report that’s been written about them in the past 3 seasons.

That’s like citing a movie review in a term paper.

Lol. I don’t know what got into you, Boney.

People like you confuse me. You don’t like what’s being said, so you go into attack mode. It’s possible to disagree with someone without resorting to being an asshole to everyone you disagree with. I don’t know what you’ve got against me the past few weeks, and I probably won’t know because you won’t say it; you’ll just choose to be a twat about it instead.

Of course I’m not a scout. Neither are you. But I’m sure I watch just as much basketball, and I read about as much as time allows, because I love the game.

I’ve yet to find anyone (other than Joel) who thinks Gordon is a good defender, and I’ve yet to find anyone who thinks CV is a good defender.

So either everyone who has watched them is wrong (which is possible), or they really are bad defenders.

Aren’t you the same person that said to me last season that Detroit has no chance of competing next season no matter what they did this offseason?

I didn’t expect us to be contenders, but I also didn’t expect us to take a step backwards.

@ Joel:

You can’t seriously be arguing that Gordon is a good defender, can you? I mean almost everyone who evaluates the guy cites defense as his main weakness …

Tell berri to go back in time to 2001 and ask him to come up with the win percentages for the gathering of assholes Rick Carlisle was forced to coach then. I can’t fucking imagine that the core that eventually won the title had a much higher win "factor" than our current team.

A thousand times this.

I’m all for using metrics as a means to better understand the game, but this Berri thing has taken on a life of its own here. Brgulker seems to take it as gospel, which I have a MAJOR problem with. Any metric that says Marcin Gortat produced 3 times the number of wins Rip Hamilton did last season is broken.

Joel:

If you don’t mind fairly complicated statistical stuff, here are two posts from Ty at bucksdiary, who has tweaked Dave Berri’s Wins Produced metric, by using a “counter-part opponent” score to add a stronger defensive element into the stat.

His breakdown of Ben Gordon’s defense is at the bottom of this post:
http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/07/the-pistons-radically-new-direction.html

And his breakdown of CV and every Bucks player’s defense can be found here:
http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/06/ranking-the-2008-09-bucks-by-total-defensive-impact.html

Spoiler:

You’re probably right that Gordon isn’t a horrible defender. By Ty’s metrics, he’s consistently been average, to good, on defense. And he’s obviously a well above average scorer. The problem is he’s a horrible rebounder, rarely produces steals or blocks, and turns the ball over a lot. So most SG’s both create more possessions (off steals/blocks/rebounds), and waste fewer (with less turnovers). The overall numbers basically paint Gordon to be a good role player. He doesn’t suck, he’s just not a difference maker by himself.

Re: CV’s defense. He sucked on defense last season. There’s really no way to get around this. It’s possible that he’ll improve, but his defensive numbers have been consistently low enough that, even if he improves tremendously, he probably won’t be more than an average defender.

@ BRGULKER
I took the same numbers Berri gave for the individual Pistons from the earlier year (treating last year like the total anomaly that it was) and I took Wilcox’s numbers from the year that he was in Seattle and they had a mandate to win. All the numbers above are sourced from Berri. In other words. If you take Berri’s numbers from the previous year, the Pistons are a 40 win team. I’m inclined to go mid-40s.

@ Boney — The stats might not be the end all be all, but they do say a lot. They certainly provoke a more sobering judgment than Langlois’ expect 50 wins propaganda. They certainly make for more interesting discussion than a bunch of 15 year olds playing with the trade machine. I’m with Lawyer boy. Take a deep breath.

“I didn’t expect us to be contenders, but I also didn’t expect us to take a step backwards.”

How has the team taken a step backwards? Rasheed is gone? Dyess is gone? others are gone?

This team’s backwards step was taken after the 4th game in the season!

I’m not attacking you, I asked a question “what happened to letting basketball be played on the court rather than utilizing nerd math to predict wins”. Screw that math. Your answers are “the scouting reports from the last 3 years” or “my source on twitter”…

The team went from average age in the 30s to average age of 25 in one offseason. Of course the fucking team is going to be weak next season without the addition of a superstar in the next few weeks. No one here is proclaiming this team to be anything more than a low seed playoff team at best next season.

This team needs time to gel, and there are still pieces needing to be added. The team that was re-built in 01, it took until 04 and acquiring Sheed for the pieces to finally hit.

Fuck berri’s math and Gortat’s win shares over Rip. Get real, and let the men play on the floor instead of with a calculator.

@ ILLINOIS PISTON LOVER

I’m completely calm. No need to worry your little face over me.

@LawyerBoy:
Along with the moratorium on trades involving Boozer or Okafor any chance we can also have a moratorium on vitriol?

I wish we had one of those in place when you were a regular here.

Math is my nemesis.

@brgulker

No, I’m not saying Gordon’s a “good” defender. I’m saying that the fact that he personally is not known as a “good” defender doesn’t mean we’re automatically going to be a horrible defensive team. Rip is a good team defender. Tay is a good team defender. Kwame is a good team defender. Max is a good team defender. Stuckey played Lebron better than anyone on the team during that sweep. MWFB is the definition of “pesky” in the way we used to say that to describe Lindsey Hunter. We’ve got a lot of guys returning (including 4/5 of the starting lineup) that know how to play defense, do play defense, and know what it takes to be a good defensive team. We also have a coach that knows those things also. Given the philosophies and practices already in place within this organization, I find it unfathomable to assume that BG + CV instantaneously make us a terrible defensive team.

And please don’t think I’m coming after you. I just can’t respect any statistical metric that predicts Indiana, Chicago, and Atlanta to win 53 , 28, and 28 games respectively last year (is that the 5%?), and throws us a 28-win bone for this season while an unbelievably less-talented and more poorly-run team in the Knicks can win 32 games.

Re: Stats
I agree with Boney, just not as vehemently. I mean, the idea of saying “_ is worth ____ wins” sounds like bull to me. Anyone’s free to subscribe to any statistical method they choose, but this one will rank right under simulation mode in NBA Live ’05 in my books.

@Gabe
Last season we were fairly weak on the boards, and that coupled with inefficient offense was central to our struggles. Now, our two main big man replacements, CV for Sheed and Wilcox for Dice, are both a probable downgrade in defensive rebounding (if they don’t improve on their past stats). So a damaging weakness from last season has gotten even worse, that’s why we should be worried.

I was referring to long term. But I don’t think that CV is a downgrade in rebounding from Sheed is a safe assumption – Sheed was invisible on the boards a lot of times last season, especially on the offensive end.

MP: That wasn’t a nice thing to say by any means.

@ Mike Payne

I’ve given up being mean to LawyerBoy… he’s an ok guy sometimes.

@Boney:
Fuck berri’s math and Gortat’s win shares over Rip. Get real, and let the men play on the floor instead of with a calculator.

Projection is fun. Reasoned analysis is fun. It’s why we’re all here right now. Some use math, others use gut, others wait until the ball is tipped— but everyone tends to use a mix of the three. If we all only waited until the ball tipped, we wouldn’t have a damn thing to talk about here.

Brgulker, keep on doing what you’re doing, buddy. I love your comments and hope you continue. Today, you inspired me to buy WOW by Berri, I’ve been meaning to pick it up for ages.

@LB:
Sorry pal.

Onions,

I’ve got a headache from reading Cavs blog commenters tell me about how Shaquille O’Neal will give them 6 more wins next season.

Boney may be an
asshole, but Dana Barros
sucks a bigger dick

:)

*cough*gay*cough*

;)

Two things:

1) I’ve always thought of Boney like I thought of Sheed. He may be an asshole, but he’s our asshole, dammit.

2) Can we call Onions “Mantaman”? I love it when it’s March and I click on a game and I hear Raferty excitedly screaming things like, “the big fella says ‘gimme the ball, I’M THE MANTAMAN!’”, and, “ONIONS! DOUBLE ORDER!!!!”

Doubly impressive:
Zeljko Rebraca lacked
heart, to say the least

I’m not sure I’m on board with the “at least he’s our asshole” idea, but his point about 2001 was really good. That team sucked individually. If Dave Berri predicted 50 wins for that team I will buy his book. Mostly I just wanted to write some shitty haikus.

You’ll be on board if Petey ever shows his face around here again.

We’re especially Brokeback Mountain today.

I don’t have the heart to be mean right now … it’s like a perfect playground … MP vs. LB, Boney vs. brgulker, Joel vs. a lamp, I mean I can’t ask for any more chaos.

lights lighter

PLAY FREEBIRD YOU ASSHOLES

Carlos Delfino
Drive the lane and lay it up
Rim blocked it again

@Rotten Atom
Way up in the thread you talked about actually seeing the rookies play in the summer league, and I had the same thoughts as you. I wasn’t all for Daye in the beginning, but the only thing I knew of him was he couldn’t bench the bar. I saw the three middle games, and he looked pretty good. The biggest negative I saw from him was he didn’t run the court hard all the time.

Another plus about Daye is that he speaks well and with confidence. Remember one of the things we were saying about Stuckey was that he didn’t really look and sound like a superstar, so it was tough to think of him becoming a media darling. But Daye has some swagger. I’m excited to see what he can do.

If Berri’s book said Detroit would win 50 games with the gathering of assholes that Detroit had in 2001, I’ll buy that book and rub the edges of the book on my junk and let it bleed out

I am not a total stat fan but I do rely on data enough to help paint the picture.

Bad defenders, from my observations:

1) Chris Wilcox
2) Charlie Villanueva
3) Ben Gordon

Mediocre defenders

1) Rodney Stuckey
2) Jason Maxiell

Above-average defenders

1) Tayshaun Prince
2) Rip Hamilton
3) Will Bynum
4) Kwame Brown

I’m going to assume Jerebko, Daye, and Summers are approximately average defenders.

There are no great defenders on this team …. unless Prince returns to top perimeter form, that is.

The ineffective defenders clearly outweigh the competent defenders, in my estimation.

TRADE MATH NOW

this team will compete. Some nights better than others. We’ve got talent when you look at Rip, Tay, BG and CV. Alot of teams in different economic circumstances would be calling for a guy like Max or MFWB. We took, from all accounts, a good step forward regarding our draft. All is well. All is well (holding up his hands like Kevin Bacon in Animal House during the parade).

Take almost any 10th man NBA player, and except against guys like Tay, younger Bruce Bowen and Dahntay “look out for my foot” Jones will typically score on any defender. And with the way the NBA is calling a foul for looking cross-eyed at someone, being a defender isn’t what it was once like.

As for defense, teams defense starts with individual defense and vice-versa. You can’t tell me that watching AI gamble on pass after pass or losing track of his guy doesn’t affect the rest of the team. And in a Macheveillian kinda way, you gotta believe a guy who picks up a foul or two (limiting his court time) doesn’t take that into consideration when he continually has to try and block a shot from a perennial perimeter guy getting hosed on D.

Do we need to make changes, yeah. But what changes are those? The Rip/Okafor is about as realistic as you can get because each fills ahole the other has while at the same time relieving redundancy in each team’s lineup. Pryz + filler for Tay makes sense also under the same criteria. But it also has to do with how guys fit in. Hell, AI could have a contract right now if he was willing to come off the bench. If he had been willing to do that last season wwe wouldn’t have been an 8th seed.

Nobody likes rebuilding. Even the Lakers went into the lottery to pick up Bynum and were the receipient of a very friendly trade or they’ be a middle of the road seed in the West. Quite frankly, I’d like to watch a team that goes out and plays hard (rather than the team we watched the last half of last season that seemed to mail it in on a number of nites (no offense to Dyess) and didn’t looke like they’d attend each other’s funeral let alone play with one another.

I look forward to the day when I can look by fellow NBA brethren rooting for other teams saying “Yeah, we drafted that MF!!” (any of the 3 picks this year). He’s hitting 20 ppg and won ANOTHER 6th man of the year award. Don’t let the MF near your babies. He’ll eat just like the dingo did. Or any other thing that comes to mind to say. We all just got to get a bit used to being a bit quieter for the next two years or so as opposed to how we could talk shit to all the others and back it up . . . . with trips and lossses in the ECFs.

No shit. What’s that saying? The enemy of Petey is…..

Thank god:
Pistons Turned Down a Davis for Maxiell Trade

OT: For the purposes of a haiku if you add “ed” to a verb does the word gain a syllable? I say yes, but I also said some guy didn’t talk good and my girlfriend laughed in my face, so I wouldn’t exactly call myself an authority on the english language.

@Sauce1977

I agree with your assessment of each of those players, except for Stuckey—I’d say at this point he’s still a bad defender, even though he tries.

From the games I watched both on TV and at the Palace this past season, I think Stuckey needs a lot of improvement with staying in front of his man, knowing to stay with a shooter out on the perimeter, and not committing bad fouls. It’s a good thing those things can be taught.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AqUZsw69YqgHNPXwGzQBqpW8vLYF?slug=mc-davisnets072009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Sometimes Ainge reminds me of “15 year olds playing with the trade machine”.

lol, first round pick.

Detroit is the front office that takes Darko and Mateen. We need all the 1st rounders we can get.

Colin -

If you add an “ed” hon a word where most people don’t pronounce it, then no. However, a lot of poetry which conforms to traditional meter will count it as a syllable IF it is accented – that is: é (this is the ASCII code for it; don’t know if it will show up right, but it’s an ‘e’ with a hash mark above it).

“on,” not “hon” and YES! ASCII VICTORY! éééé!

Just to be clear, looked, booked, cooked are all one syllable words?

Poets would even drop the ‘e’ to muck with syllables. To wit:

Michael Curry donn’d his check’d suit = 8 syllables
Michael Curry donnéd his checkéd suit = 10 syllables

Having revealéd my literature nerdiness, I think it is clear why I don’t go for stats so much as metaphor and allegory.

Also, nobody has mentioned it (I don’t think) but Cleveland made a solid, and quiet, pick up with Jamario Moon.

@Rob G

Not to mention your computer language nérdinéss

Also, I like what Colangelo is doing in Toronto.

Rob G: What about knighted? As in Rob G was knighted in his quest to serve our liege, Kwame Brown.

@Rob G

Not to mention your computer language nérdinéss =)

oops, double post!

@Garrett, I saw that too… Jamario Moon is a big upgrade at the backup SF position in Cleveland, compared to Pavlovic and Szczerbiak.

ha!

Anyway, like I said, poets would distinguish them, but yes, knighted is (as we modern folk see it) pronounced with two syllables whereas pronounced is not.

It boils down to a matter of usage: we use ‘cooked’ (1 syllable) so much that we say it faster. We don’t say ‘knighted’ that much, and it has its vestigial second syllable.

Another example: goodbye was once ‘God be with you.’ But over time it shortened.

So on DBB, perhaps we should say joodbye.

Fuck Boston and fuck their trade proposals.

“So we give you our only PF who can defend AND a 1st rounder, and you give us a PF who can’t defend or rebound plus two guys you met at the bus station. Stop calling me asshole.”

That’s how I’d like to think Jod responded.

@SadPanda: hahaha, I bet those are the exact words he used.

@Rob G: doesn’t it have to do with the last consonant in the verb? Any verb that ends with a ‘T’ or ‘D’ sound will have the ‘ed’ pronounced as a new syllable.

Examples: worded, founded, delighted, hated.

Anyway… time for dinner. Joodbye!

So Big Baby is so much better than Maxiell that the Pistons would have to throw in a first round draft pick AND take two stiffs off their hands.

@ MP:

Buying WoW (the book, not the video game, right!?!?!?) is a good choice. It definitely changed the way I think about the NBA, and I think it would for most people, regardless of how much you end up buying (or not) Berri’s win score and wins produced. You will enjoy it.

@ Boney:

How has the team taken a step backwards? Rasheed is gone? Dyess is gone? others are gone?

Sheed needed to go. He didn’t produce much last season, and he’s worn out his welcome. Dice, on the other hand, was our best player last year, in my estimation. He was a beast on the boards for us, he gave a shit night in and night out, and he scored the ball relatively well. Plus, he’s a good team defender to boot.

I’ve made it clear why I think we’ve taken a step backwards.

In sum:

We signed Ben Gordon to a 58.2 million dollar contract when we already have a virtually identical player locked into a contract that is going to be difficult to trade. We outbid ourselves in a bidding war that didn’t even exist to get a player that creates a very awkward log jam at SG (that we just tried last season and failed with), and there doesn’t seem to be a legitimate move for Rip to be found anywhere.

I like the CV signing; I think I was one of the first here to do so. Even though I think he’s a bad defender, I hope he can improve. And, I really like his offensive game and his attitude.

But a PF like CV has to be paired with a beast of a Center, or at least another big like McDyess who can rebound the basketball at a high rate. I don’t see Kwame, Max, or Wilcox as that guy — do you? And I haven’t yet seen a realistic move that we could make to net us a guy like that — have you?

And since Jod in his wisdom decided to invest the bulk of our cap space into a SG who’s not a clear upgrade over the one we already have, we’re in financial handcuffs with an unbalanced roster. It’s going to be obvious to everyone that we want to move Rip, so we’re gonna have to field lowball offers when there is an option on the table.

That’s why we’ve taken a step backwards. We have a team that’s suspect on D; we have a confusingly unbalanced roster, and we have big men who are unproven rebounders.

Look, I’m hoping it’s a two-three year process, and there’s a long way to go. But I think I have as much of a right as anyone to bitch about the present as anyone else, especially if I can make a legitimate case for why I’m being bitchy.

I’m not attacking you, I asked a question "what happened to letting basketball be played on the court rather than utilizing nerd math to predict wins". Screw that math. Your answers are "the scouting reports from the last 3 years" or "my source on twitter"…

Associating me with “fuckheads” and then explicitly lumping me in with other “preaching assholes” isn’t attacking me? You need a new definition of attack, my friend.

I don’t think Ben Gordon is a good defender, and the majority of people who have evaluated him since the trade have agreed. Take your pick of Detroit sports writers, Chicago sports writers, whatever. The concensus is that he’s average on defense at best.

And I’ve never played the “my source” card, Boney. If I hear something interesting on Twitter, I post it (and try to post a link to that particular status update if I have time). If @CV31 tweets that there’s “another big move to be made,” don’t you think that’s interesting and worth sharing with DBB? I do. If you don’t like it, you can always ignore it.

========

With respect to Stats in general. The stats that the NBA tracks are an attempt to record what NBA players do. They’re not perfect, but they are what we have. The reason I’m a fan of Berri is that he’s presented the most convincing interpretation of NBA stats that I’ve seen thus far. He’s not God, and I don’t worship at the altar of Berri, but his analysis is directly related to Kevin S.‘s initial post, which I strongly disagree with. We won’t be a better team for playing small ball because we’ll struggle to defend and rebound.

I don’t think stats tell the entire story, but they do a lot of it, and as MP noted, it’s fun to speculate and try to predict how our team might do this year.

In the past, Berri has been very accurate. Interestingly, one of the times his model got it wrong was with our beloved Pistons. I sincerely hope he’s wrong again, and I think we have a couple guys in CV, Wilcox, and Stuckey who could improve quite a bit over the next 12-24 months. Here’s the article in which he discusses how the Pistons won more games than his model suggested for those who might be interested: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/06/05/maybe-flip-saunders-is-a-good-coach/

brgulker, the Pistons are not in financial handcuffs. If you want to see financial handcuffs see Utah, New Orleans, Washington, Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee and, if they don’t win this year… Boston and Orlando.

@spideymouse

Doesn’t it have to do with the last consonant in the verb? Any verb that ends with a ‘T’ or ‘D’ sound will have the ‘ed’ pronounced as a new syllable.

I believe so. Now you’re getting into linguistics, and that’s not my thing. That was a long time ago. I believe that T and D require particular physical movements in the mouth which make them hard to pronounce in the way that a K can be, limiting our human ability to gloss over ‘em quickly. However, this is just my speculation. That said, I don’t think there is some school-marm rule about it (akin to I before E except after C and in cases like weigh).

Me fail English? That unpossible!

All of this said, to answer Colin’s original point, the ‘rules’ of Haiku are actually a lot more flexible. Consider Allen Ginsberg’s translation of a famous Japanese haiku:

The old pond
A frog jumped in,
Kerplunk!

“brgulker, the Pistons are not in financial handcuffs. If you want to see financial handcuffs see Utah, New Orleans, Washington, Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee and, if they don’t win this year… Boston and Orlando.”

Especially Orlando. They are doubling down on winning it all this year.

@Rob G:
The old pond
A frog jumped in,
Kerplunk!

Basho FTW

@Rob G,

As well they should. They were thisclose last year. No excuses next year. This was their “learning” year. I have my doubts whether or not SVG can coach a championship team, but if they catch fire they absolutely have the talent to win it all.

Berri’s suggestion for last year, was that we replace Sheed with Amir. HA! The original Amir apologist.

You know, Villanueva’s rebound percentages compare pretty nicely with Rasheed’s. And I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not.

Just for shiggles, I looked up Ben’s from his heyday, and holy shit, MONSTER. In 02-03 his DReb% was 34.9. That’s asinine.

I see that Tina Fey signed with the Kings.

Useless fact: Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Chris Wilcox all have NCAA Championships.

So do Laron Profit and Cherokee Parks.

Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas

Sorry, I was just looking for an excuse to mention Cherokee Parks.

I looked it up on Basketball Reference, the new Pistons have more NCAA titles than Kobe, Lebron, KG and Dwight Howard.

lol@QD

Don’t forget Amir Johnson.

@brgulker (and here’s where I’ll leave it since you read only what you want to read)

We signed Ben Gordon to a 58.2 million dollar contract when we already have a virtually identical player locked into a contract that is going to be difficult to trade. We outbid ourselves in a bidding war that didn’t even exist to get a player that creates a very awkward log jam at SG (that we just tried last season and failed with), and there doesn’t seem to be a legitimate move for Rip to be found anywhere.

The word “virtually” leaves a lot to interpretation. This is how you cover yourself, and give yourself an “out” in case an argument arises. My friend, there is a significant difference in the egos of Allen Iverson and Ben Gordon. There is a significant difference in the spotlight and the direction it is pointed in, when it comes to the guards that create the “logjam” as you put it so lovingly.

I’d say Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon are 2 totally different players. In fact, I’d say Richard Hamilton is a high efficiency scorer who is nearly 6 years older than our newly signed Ben Gordon who is a streaky (to the tune of 41% last season, almost as many made 3s as Rip took) 3 point shooter who gives the team a different look with it’s 3rd year floor general (Rodney Stuckey, a penetrating “off the dribble” point guard).

Ben Gordon can space the floor for the piece who was deemed “untouchable” last offseason by Joe Dumars. Richard Hamilton does not.

Gordon can come off a screen and bury a 3 in his man’s face to the tune of 41%, whereas Rip may be similar to Reggie Miller, but he’ll never be Reggie from 3, he’ll never be Gordon from 3. Gordon would be worth the money if Richard Hamilton was not still on the roster. He is only a “specialist” because he has spent most of his early career coming off of the bench in Chicago. He may not be the best defender in the league but Richard Hamilton is overrated by more leaps and bounds as a defender than Tayshaun Prince ever imagined.

I like the CV signing; I think I was one of the first here to do so. Even though I think he’s a bad defender, I hope he can improve. And, I really like his offensive game and his attitude.

Probably only the first because you were one of the first to see the “Charlie Villenueva is a Piston” post. Villenueva has never been in a position where his defense has had to be counted on. In my eyes, the kid is 6’11 and a little thin for power forward. He’s offensively gifted though, and has developed quite a perimeter shot. He has developed into more of a NBA player than I ever thought he would coming out of UConn. He will be a good player in Detroit and is a piece, among the hopefully many, that Joe D gathers in order to build another run.

But a PF like CV has to be paired with a beast of a Center, or at least another big like McDyess who can rebound the basketball at a high rate. I don’t see Kwame, Max, or Wilcox as that guy — do you? And I haven’t yet seen a realistic move that we could make to net us a guy like that — have you?

Why? Again, CV came off the bench behind Bosh in Toronto. He came off the bench in Milwaukee as well to provide what? Offense. He doesn’t have the look of a 10 rebound per night guy, but with his god given genetics he should have no problem getting 8 boards a night.

And since Jod in his wisdom decided to invest the bulk of our cap space into a SG who’s not a clear upgrade over the one we already have, we’re in financial handcuffs with an unbalanced roster. It’s going to be obvious to everyone that we want to move Rip, so we’re gonna have to field lowball offers when there is an option on the table.

I believe Gordon is a clear upgrade over Richard Hamilton at SG. I was the first one to say last season, after Billups was trade (and I quote) “ummm guys? who is going to shoot 3s for us with Billups out?”. No one answered. Our best 3pt shooter was Rasheed Wallace and Walter Herrmann. Ben Gordon gives the team a better 3pt shooter than Billups, Wallace or Herrmann. We dont have to field low ball offers for Rip. Let it play out. It’s the fucking OFFSEASON, and no matter what that fucktard Berri says about win shares or “Hamilton’s wife used 12 tampons during the season and during those tampons, the team won 2 less games than the pace when she wasn’t using tampons”.

That’s why we’ve taken a step backwards. We have a team that’s suspect on D; we have a confusingly unbalanced roster, and we have big men who are unproven rebounders.

Suspect on D because of their roles on previous teams. I’m of the mindset that Rick Carlisle/Larry Brown made the team as great as it was defensively.

Look, I’m hoping it’s a two-three year process, and there’s a long way to go. But I think I have as much of a right as anyone to bitch about the present as anyone else, especially if I can make a legitimate case for why I’m being bitchy.

you’re not making legitimate cases. you’re regurgitating other idiot’s statistical breakdowns and all I asked was for you to ask that toolbag what his win share ratio was for the team as it was constructed in 2001. Those stats are not be all end all.

Associating me with "fuckheads" and then explicitly lumping me in with other "preaching assholes" isn’t attacking me? You need a new definition of attack, my friend.

For you to call me “my friend”, after bitching about what you were whining about… you truly don’t understand.

I don’t think Ben Gordon is a good defender, and the majority of people who have evaluated him since the trade have agreed. Take your pick of Detroit sports writers, Chicago sports writers, whatever. The concensus is that he’s average on defense at best.

Since the trade? who did we trade for Gordon? Gordon isn’t going to be a defensive stopper, if anyone, ANYONE, thinks that’s why Dumars signed him then you are blind homers. Chicago sports writers are full of shit, as are Detroit sports writers. I give dap to Matt because Matt tells us what we want to hear. He actually asks the questions and understands the game of basketball.

Half the asshats at the Freep wish they knew half as much about basketball as Matt or half the commenters here do. On paper, by name alone, this team fucking sucks at defense and it looks like we’re going to play Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors’ basketball. If you think John Kuester, a LB disciple and a teacher of the half court offense in CLE last season will allow this team to just play up and down without D then you’re dumb and there’s no helping you.

If anything, Kuester will make Gordon more efficient from 3 than he’s ever been… and my proof is the jump in Mo Williams’ stat line from last season.

At the end of the day:

Ben Gordon should average 18-20ppg a night
Chris Wilcox should average 7 and 7 a night
CV should average 17 and 7 a night

If that’s how it’s broken out and we see a growth spurt in Stuckey’s ppg and apg totals? the team wouldn’t have taken a step back, technically. Considering Dice was what, 9 and 9? No one off the bench put in double figures a night for points and Sheed was what 12 and 7?

Wilcox is a downgrade, obviously. Gordon helps the cause. CV replaces Sheed. The team needs a big, the team is not financially strapped (not pushing the luxury tax) and they have 2 contracts that can bring back a near max player should the need arise (Daye grows into the starting role, Summers grows into a starting role, etc). Sure, the contract Bynum will get next offseason will hurt but I believe Rip or Tay will be gone by then and we can fill the hole with a $7m player (or two) and re-sign Bynum or sign and trade him.

i believe Wilcox has more upside than he’s shown. I’ve been high on him since he left UMD. He has the body, just needs to be in a system that breeds winning (whether they win next year or not).

Immediately disregards Boney’s last twofive posts. That shit was like five posts, right?

yeah TDP, I was rambling.

I’m a deustche, doosh, douche, etc…

haiku time?

@ Boney:

You’ve said your peace, I’ll say mine:

Probably only the first because you were one of the first to see the "Charlie Villenueva is a Piston" post.

I liked CV well before there were even rumors. Not that I’m trying to brag, just trying to refute the implied insult. If I could remember what thread I originally posted it in, I’d look it up. Ironically, not many people agreed with me, iirc.

Believe and what you want about me; I don’t care. You’ve obviously picked a handful of my comments and made a straw man out of them. Whatever. I’m over it. I’m just glad you’re the only one at DBB who associates me with “fuckheads” and “preaching assholes.” Getting called an asshole by the resident asshole … makes it easy to write it off as meaningless noise.

@Boney:

I agree with just about everything you said, barring your logic vs stat duel with brgulker.

I believe that Rick and Larry made the Pistons a great defensive team, as those cats weren’t known for it individually before they got to the D.

I think (hope?) Keuster can get the new players to play the same brand of defense while running an offense that does not look like it was designed by AFI.

I predict somewhere around 45 wins next year. That’s if Keuster is a competent coach. If he isn’t then mid to high thirties. I tend to believe that it will be more near the forties. Gordon and CV spacing the floor will give Stuckey more room to develop. My only problem with this team is Stuckey’s development as a leader being hindered by Rip’s presence. I love Rip, I have a poster of his in my freaking bedroom, but I hope he will be able to swallow his pride and let Stuckey take the leadership role.

Also, does it annoy any of you that during the Celtics press conference with Sheed, Garnett pretty much revealed that Sheed didn’t give a shit about last season whatsoever? I mean, it was pretty obvious, but to have it confirmed like that publicly kinda stings.

The Celtics and everything they represent can go to hell.

Was ainge even serious with that trade?

Rasclot just confirmed what most fans were thinking anyways, which is that dude was done with trying to take Detroit anywhere past the first round.

Ya, I hate the celdicks too. That trade was a joke and I can’t believe Ainge would even make that call, because he knows something THAT ludicrous is going public. What do you think the rest of the NBA is thinking right now? Either way, I just hope Ainge gets too trade-happy and ends up messing up that team financially for a LONG, LONG time(if they aren’t already).

Sharpe got traded again! To the Bucks…? I wonder what John Hammond has up his sleeve?

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090722/SPORTS0102/907220354/1127/rss13/Former+Piston+Walter+Sharpe+traded+again

@ brgulker

Unbelievable stuff in this thread. A+, two thumbs up, etc. I’m a stats geek so this made my day (well, not really, but you get the point).

Sharpe, like Amir, must have been Hammond’s guy as well. I wonder what Hammond had to do with that draft night trade for Sharpe…

Wait, Hammond was already Bucks GM when we drafted Sharpe.

I was gonna say if hammonds guys were amir and sharpe maybe drafted darko too.

Ya he was the GM of Milwaukee already when we drafted Sharpe. I wonder if that Langlois piece about the rest of the NBA watching what Joe D is doing and wondering if they missed something in a player is really John Hammond’s manipulation of the Pistons organization? I wonder if he knows Joe is easily manipulated and he traded to get Sharpe because he knew Joe would start thinking, “I wonder what he sees in him that I didn’t?”, and make Joe go crazy and do some ridiculous trade.

KronJ: the trades and player movements in the NBA very, very rarely are done to “stick” it to someone. Not enough spaces on the bench or enough money. In the NFL you can grab a guy so a competitor won’t get him and have him play special teams and given the nature of the game, a fair amount of minutes. Not in the NBA.

I have no doubt that a guy might get blackballed here or there. But for one Asst GM to moveto another team (even in the same division) and then just before going or recently having left orchestrates trades to put doubt in a former coworker/GM given the salary cap and economics even in good times requires 911 truthers and Elvis conspiracies to the nth degree.

I hardly think Jod sits up at night wondering if Hammonds knows something he doesn’t. Hell, they traded for R Jefferson last summer, let CV go without an offer and are sitting around waiting for Sessions to get an offer after claiming he was there number one offseason priority and then go and draft Jennings. Unless someone on the bucks totally explodes, they’ll be worse than us. thoug I do like Skiles.

They’ve been looking at trading Redd as well. Which is strange, he must be the fan favorite and I’d be worried about attendance if I was Kohl & Hammond & Co.

I think the Bucks being worse than Detroit is pretty much a given. Maybe even with Curry at the wheel.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-22-115/The-Battle-of-the-Statisticians.html

interesting criticism of Berri in the second half. I have read a bit of his work, and I agree that his economic stuff is pretty cool. Not the book though. what do you book owners think?

You don’t need to be a stats freak/believer to see that we have tied up a lot of our off-season money in a good shooting guard when we already had a good starting shooting guard, and that we are mighty thin at the bigs, having replaced ‘Sheed, Amir, and Dyess with CV and Wilcox. That’s not a knock on any of the individual players we acquired in and of themselves, it’s just looking at the whole, unbalanced, package. Can anybody disagree with that, seriously? The question is, if/when there’s going to be another move to shore up the 4/5 positions, right?

It does seem like Detroit might have finally solved the “backup SF” problem that I still think cost us a least one championship.

@ Buuters: I was just kidding man, I don’t really think that is what Hammond is doing. I was just trying to add to the conspiracy theory.

@ Toledo Joe: I personally believe Sheed cost us the other championship. In game 5 of the finals, when we were tied 2-2 against the Spurs, he went to double down on Manu(or was it Parker?) over in the corner, when he was already basically doubled by being in the corner, and left the in-bounds passer, Horry, all by himself to take one step in, and hit the game-winning 3. If Sheed would have just stayed with his man, and let RIP chase his man into the corner on his own like he did, we would have been back-to-back champions, because we went on to win game 6. I know it is all moot because who knows if we would have won game 5 that we would have won game 6, but I can tell you this much, I liked our chances a whole lot better if we had won game 5.

sorry, *Butters

Kronik:

Yeah, that was a key, boneheaded play by ‘Sheed. And sure, maybe if he guards Horry. . . . But ’Sheed was so central to the Pistons’ success in those days that I can’t see him as a net minus in any sense. Detroit doesn’t make it into either the ‘04 or ’05 finals without him — I’m as certain of that as I can be of any “what if the past was different?” scenario

On the other hand, in ’’04-05 and the next three seasons, it was clear that the Pistons main problem and arguably only significant problem was the lack of a productive bench, with the biggest problem being a lack of any backup for Tayshaun.

Still don’t know what Sheed was thinking on that play. Maybe he thought Tayshaun wouldn’t get there in time. Tayshaun still shifted course and almost made it over to Horry before he got the shot off. I can’t think that double team was by design or someone else would have rotated over. Still probably not as bad as trying to change the defensive plays at the end of Game 5 against Cleveland.

@brgulker

I don’t want to carry this any further than right here.

I haven’t picked bits and pieces* of your argument. What I’ve maintained this entire time was that you didn’t believe this team would be good next season halfway through last season. You’re reading way too far into statistics and math equations when Dumars has built a team that likely had a shitty win share ratio from 2001 – 2005.

I’m not mad, I actually like what you say.

You regurgitate what others say (Chicago and Detroit sports writers) than actually give the core time to grow together like the last core did. Who fucking cares what other assholes say about Gordon or CV, they didn’t play with this group of guys or the coach or in the system.

You’re not an asshole or a fuckhead, literally. I use names as a term of endearment, whether you believe it or not. If we were arguing over a beer you’d likely be called a douchebag 500 times, and I’d likely make fun of your mom as well. The only person here who wants to seriously fight me over joning on his mom was/is LawyerBoy.

Relax douchebag, it’ll be ok.

@ Yahtzee

Statistics don’t win basketball games. The program, offense, individual game performances and stars win games.

Ben Gordon is not playing for Scott Skiles or Vinny Del Negro anymore. He’s playing for a coach that had schemes that gave more open lanes for LeBron to cut through and more open looks for 3s for Mo than I’ve ever seen before. Sure, the defense from Gordon in the past has not been a strong suit but has he really ever been brought in to stop a guy? No. He’s been brought in for offensive punch, because as we all know far too well, he can single handedly erase a double digit deficit by himself.

As far as Charlie Villenueva goes, he’s in a new situation as well. He went from run and gun Phoenix lite in Toronto to off the bench and boring in Milwaukee. I believe he can be aggressive and I believe he can play solid enough defense and he’s young and quick enough at least to stay in front of his man, which is something that no one can say Rasheed did last season.

I will be really surprised if the team wins 28 games next season like @brgulker seems to believe. On paper, this team has more talent right now than some of their Eastern Conference counterparts. Then there are teams like the Wizards who have shitloads of talent on paper but you never know whether they’ll be able to put it together, or you don’t know how the loss of Andre Miller will affect the 6ers even though Brand is coming back, etc.

I see this team, right now, as a competitor for the 5th seed in the playoffs. Is that where I want them to be? No, not really. I’m not going to poo poo a team that has acquired known scorers, guys who can put a team on their backs just because they haven’t played good defense so far in their careers.

Agreed.

Here’s a piece of information that should make all feel better about our contract/cap situation for the coming years. Philly has 162 mill$ tied up with Igoudala/Brand. Mkes Jod appear to be genius.

I can understand the concerns about defense. And I bet that, with all the new faces and youth, that the defense will be really bad for at least half the season while everyone gets used to each other and the new system (which will make DBB not a fun place to be).

I don’t see the rebounding as much of an issue. I think Prince, CV and Kwame is at least an average rebounding front line. It doesn’t bother me that Ben Gordon is a terrible rebounder.

makes

@ Boney

I don’t want to carry this any further than right here.

Fine by me. And fwiw, I think you made a good point about the 01 Pistons. They surprised all of us, and I’m going to be cheering for this group to do the same, and I look forward to adding more pieces over the next couple seasons.

@ Drew:

interesting criticism of Berri in the second half. I have read a bit of his work, and I agree that his economic stuff is pretty cool. Not the book though. what do you book owners think?

For starters, that conversation is over two years old … and IIRC, Berri et al have created some online resources that make their model more transparent. Additionally, they do have another book coming out, and the authors have promised to respond to objections in that book specifically.

@ Drew:

Also, this: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/03/21/nba-babble-babble/

Sorry, triple post about to happen.

I also wanted to post this from Berri, both to clear up his position and to clear up my own. I understand stats have limits. So does Berri.

" Let me close by re-iterating what I think our model is and is not. Wins Produced is a measure of how productive a player has been in the past. It is primarily driven by a player’s ability to shoot efficiently, rebound, and create and avoid turnovers (again, relative to what the average performance at a player’s position). It is designed to be both accurate and simple and hopefully furthers our ability to use the data generated by the NBA to investigate various aspects of economic theory. In other words, Wins Produced is a research tool.

Now that we see what Wins Produced is, let me state again what it is not. Wins Produced tells us how productive a player has been, but it does not tell us why a player was productive. In this sense, it does not replace coaching or scouting. In my view, the job of a coach or scout is not to tell us how productive a player has been (the data tells us that), but why the player was productive, and furthermore, whether or not there is anything one can do to change what a player does on the court.

Our research has shown that for the most part, players are what they are. Still, it is possible for player performance to change. Factors that can cause a player to be more or less productive include the productivity of teammates, injuries, stability of a team’s roster, and coaching. Yes, coaching has been found to statistically impact performance. What is not clear is how coaching matters? Hopefully, as we continue in our research into the economics of sports, further light can be shed on that question."

Very interesting article on a very interesting trade idea

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/221829-dr-trade-one-deal-three-fixes-for-the-pistons-bobcats-clippers

Gordon would have taken 6 yrs. / 54 mil. from Bulls, an offer which they withdrew.

We paid him 58 mil.

Can someone explain to me how we didn’t win a bidding war that we created with ourselves as the only participants?

Joe D saw what he wanted and got it at a price he was comfortable with. Could we have gotten him cheaper? Absolutely. I don’t see Gordon saying “no” to 5 years and $50 million. But even so, for what he brings to the table— 20ppg and infinite range at 40%+ from the 3— he’s still a relative bargain at ~$11.5 million per. I think Joe probably just wanted to guarantee that he got his man, so he went to him very early on and promised in a little more cash than anybody else probably would’ve.

Now, if we’d waited to sign BG and CV a couple weeks, I think some of the horrible contracts thrown around would’ve totally driven their asking prices up. 5 years/$50 mil for Anderson Verejao? I’ll take BG at $58mil ALL DAY.

@ brgulker

nice selective reading:

“Answer: Actually, we made a decision a year ago not to commit long term to Ben. We tried, and he turned it down. Then, near the end, [now GM] Gar Forman and John [Paxson] decided it probably wasn’t a good idea to make a long-term decision. We wanted to see what other options might develop. So we withdrew the offer [six years, $54 million] we had on the table. Ben ultimately said he would take it, but it was too late.”

That contract was offered 1 year ago prior to them acquiring Rose and Salmons. He turned it down 1 year ago. There’s no time frame for which Reinsdorf said he’d take it, he just said “ultimately said he’d take it”. Did he say that a month ago? Or did he say that 10 months ago?

Everyone knew Gordon turned down contract offers and everyone knew if he got offered $9m to stay in Chicago this offseason, he said it would be a tough decision.

I dont see how offering him an average of $11.6m over 5 years is bidding against yourself. Considering he’s turned down offers before of $9m and 10m per

Somebody might have already posted this ,I haven’t had a chance yet to read all the post from today,FOX sports did an article on how the draft would have went if it was held after the summer games and Daye moved up to 5th if he can gain some weight maybe we got a steal.

I agree with Joel about Ben Gordon being overpaid. You can’t always get everything at its absolute best value and cheapest price. If there’s something you REALLY want, the best way to get it is to pay up and that’s what Jod did.

I’ve read that Joe turned down a Big Fatty Davis, JR Giddens and Gabe Pruitt for Big Baby Eater Maxiell & 1st round pick trade.

I remember when JoeD signed Rasheed to his contract that he could have low balled him because there was no one in a position to offer more. But, he said that players remember when you try to do that kind of thing to them and that he wouldn’t low ball someone just because he could.

I don’t know if this is the same thinking but I hope we get a much happier and committed Ben Gordon then the Bulls who always seemed to be dicking him around.

It’s interesting that the Bulls have drafted so well and still are nowhere near contending. They’ve made a lot of good picks and even their “bad” picks are still decent players (Tyrus Thomas, Noah).

Some of the players they’ve taken:
Tyson Chandler, Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Thabo Sefalosha, Andres Nocioni, Derrick Rose

All of these players are still in the league and getting legit playing times (except Curry). Yet, they’re still mediocre. So much for building through the draft.

QD,

That is pretty amazing (and hilarious) to think of how many high lottery picks the Bulls have used to create a fairly mediocre team.

It seems like they had some terrible luck, as part of what killed those earlier, pre-Rose teams was the Jay Williams injury, though drafting Tyson Chandler over Gasol (think how much better their roster would have been with Gasol) looks crappy in retrospect too.

Gabe…the Jay Williams accident was terrible luck, but they did also get extremely lucky by winning the lottery and getting D. Rose last year. I think the odds of that happening were under 2%.

@ Boney:

nice selective reading:

Back at you. Chicago wasn’t even going after BG this season, which only makes it more confusing, not less.

He would “ultimately agree” to a 5 yr. / 50ish million dollar deal from Chicago; wouldn’t he have agreed to something similar when 1) Chicago had pulled the offer and 2) no one else was pursuing him besides us?

Back at you. Chicago wasn’t even going after BG this season, (a point I’ve raised on more than one occasion) which only makes it more confusing, not less.

In other words, why didn’t Chicago want him? Are we supposed to believe the line that Rose and Hinrich are just that much better than him and are going to beat him out for playing time?

The fact that Chicago did pull the offer and wasn’t willing to extend the guy who’s widely perceived to be one of their most important (if not most important) player is confusing to me.

D. Rose >>>>>> Jay Williams

The Bulls will be a 50+ win team very soon, if only because Rose is on the roster. He’s the Lebron of point guards— too fast, too strong, too much leaping ability, mad court vision, ridiculous handles, has the tools to be an elite defender… like a bigger, faster, more athletic Rondo (who is already a freak) with literally no ceiling. I expect peak-era Isiah Thomas type numbers from him soon.

Jim and Joel:

No question the Bulls got criminally lucky with the Rose draft. He was one of my favorite college players/prospects ever, when the Bulls won the lottery I have to admit it somewhat shook my NBA fandom, because I wasn’t sure if I could actually root against Rose.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Rose’s peak numbers are better than Isiah’s. The game is called so differently now that someone with his combination of quickness and burst and power is pretty much unguardable.

On offense he needs to improve on using the pick and roll, that’s the main thing that separates Chris Paul and Deron Williams over their peers, and right now Rose seems more comfortable in 1v1 situations.

Once he learns how to generate efficient offense for himself and others off simple pick and roll plays, the Bulls will be a scary team to play, and a big part of that process is fairly simple- it’s just learning when to keep the ball himself, as Kelly Dwyer kept noting during the C’s vs. Bulls series. Rose would free himself off a pick set by Brad Miller, then when the defense scrambled and tried to collapse, he would always kick it back out to Miller, who would brick an open 18 footer. When Rose stops kicking it back out for a jumper, and instead jets toward the basket himself, is when everyone should start getting worried.

Brgulker, the quote from reinsdorf is basically saying that their interest in him was low due to them already having money/pt tied up in rose/heinrich/salomons. they aquirred salomons last year after they realized that Gordon was most likely not coming back. I think it’s clear that they valued him, but the relationship had grown sour during their negotiations over the last couple of seasons. I don’t find this confusing at all.

@brgulker

c’mon man, it’s too easy… "Back at you. Chicago wasn’t even going after BG this season, which only makes it more confusing, not less.

He would "ultimately agree" to a 5 yr. / 50ish million dollar deal from Chicago; wouldn’t he have agreed to something similar when 1) Chicago had pulled the offer and 2) no one else was pursuing him besides us?"

In the last 2 offseasons Chicago extended offers to Ben Gordon, which he turned down. 5 years, 55 million. 6 years, 54 million, etc. He turned down those deals, and after Rose was drafted and the team clearly moved on (by acquiring Salmons at the trade deadline) why should the team extend a contract offer that’s anywhere close to the offers they previously made? The fucking Bulls didn’t offer him a contract this offseason because in the last 2 (or 3 even) offseasons he’s turned them down and made him difficult to deal with.

The Chicago Bulls want Ben Gordon. They want him so bad they once offered him 5 years, $55m and 6 years %4m. There comes a point though when enough is enough and that’s when they were turned down last offseason, and they acquired Rose and decided that Rose’s uptick in offensive efficiency over Hinrich was more than enough to make up for the downtick in efficiency from Gordon to Salmons.

I don’t believe Joe Dumars bid against himself in this negotiation. I believe he made a fair market offer for a guy who averages 20ppg and shoots 3s at an extremely high percentage. The guy is 26 years old and is making roughly the same salary as Richard Hamilton at 32 years old. At this point in their careers, Gordon has more upside than Hamilton. If Detroit offered Gordon 4 years $36m like Miami is doing with Odom, Gordon would likely still be a Bull. $9m per wasn’t going to get Gordon according to reports.

If you knew the background of the Bulls situation with Gordon, you’d realize that the relationship had soured more than Detroit was bidding against themselves.

Boney,

I’m obviously not being clear. I understand all of what you just said.

What I’ve yet to hear anyone answer is this: who else was willing to give Gordon even 9 mil. per? Even Chicago — his own team — pulled that offer.

So, we weren’t bidding against Chicago, right? Who else was bidding?

The guy is 26 years old and is making roughly the same salary as Richard Hamilton at 32 years old. At this point in their careers, Gordon has more upside than Hamilton.

Preface: Rip is overpaid. His contract is bad. I’m with Gabe on this one, extending Rip for as long as he did for as much as he did was a big mistake. Moving him and his contract is going to be tough to do.

Look, I’m not crazy about Gordon, but I can stomach his contract — he’s 26, scores 20, shoots threes. I get his upside; I really do.

What I am still confused about is the entire chronology of how this team was blown up, beginning with the Billups trade and continuing through the Wilcox signing.

In other words: the Rip extension followed by the Gordon signing is what I don’t get. Why on Earth would you extend Rip when you knew all along your plan was to go spend a bunch of money this summer? It’s not like it’s a secret that Gordon was going to be on the market — right? Jod had to know that Gordon would be a possible target when he extended Rip.

So why extend Rip at all? Especially to a contract that’s going to be tough as hell to move? If he’s not your SG of the future, wouldn’t it be better to simply let his contract expire and use the expiring deal as trade bait? And why follow that up by paying a guy almost the same amount of money to give you a stat line that’s most identical to Rip (although they get that line differently, I realize)? Especially when your most pressing need is big men?

Look, it’s not that I’m dead-set against Gordon. It’s trying to reconcile the Gordon signing with the rest of this awkward, disjointed series of moves that Jod’s been making that I struggle with.

It’s the big picture that’s confusing, and BG’s just one part of that picture. If there’s a master plan, either Jod’s so brilliant that it’s not obvious to us. The other alternative seems more likely atm, at least to me, that there’s not a master plan and Jod’s simply using an ad hoc mechanism to gobble up as much ‘talent’ as he can.

It had been reported prior to signing day that Detroit would have to offer more the $9m per to get Gordon because it was reported that he would take $9m to stay in Chicago.

It was reported on Sportscenter the night before July 1.

Why are the moves disjointed this offseason? Who else was available that you would’ve liked to see them acquire? Rip’s contract is horrible. It’s not like Philly wants to acquire him when they’ve got horrible contracts of their own by getting rid of their only post presence (Brand).

LA Clippers are looking to fill seats more than win, which is why Rip to LA for a big is unlikely.

I like the Boozer idea, but only because he’s expiring and I doubt he’ll be in Detroit for more than 1 year anyway.

Who else would you have liked to see Detroit sign? They signed arguably the best young talent that was available and was unrestricted. Some wanted Millsap, well, we see Utah wanted him more. I think Joe D has made moves to get this team younger and more athletic. Too often last season we looked slow and lethargic.

I don’t know why the big picture is so confusing, the team is getting younger and acquiring talented players who are younger. All teams do it, some do it more in a more sneaky fashion by trading expirings at the deadline for youth, some let their old expiring walk and sign younger guys with available money.

I applaud Joe for making the most of a shitty situation. The asshats around here that are bitching and moaning about how Ben Gordon and Villenueva don’t play defense dont really know as much as I once gave them credit for.

For what it’s worth, I’d bet Portland would have approached Gordon if Dumars didn’t pee a circle around him first. He would have been a good fit next to Brandon Roy.

Especially if Dumars hadn’t jumped on our guys like he did— and let the market play itself out as it has— I think it would’ve cost us considerably more for both Gordon and CV. If Cleveland was willing to give Verajao 5yrs/$50mil and Toronto gives Bargnani 5yrs/$50mil, what do you think that would’ve driven CV’s price up to? He’s younger than Sideshow, the same age as Bargnani, and more skilled than either. To add to QD’s point, Toronto, Houston, LAL, Miami, Orlando, and a host of other teams spending extravagantly this summer would’ve all come knocking had it not been common knowledge that he was off the market before the market even opened.

Remember, Bobby Simmons is making $11.2 mil this coming season. Cuttino Mobley is retired and is making $10mil this season. Vince will make $16.5mil apiece the next two years. RJ makes around $15mil the next two years. Mike fucking Dunleavy is making $10.5mil the next two years. AK47? $17mil. Troy Murphy? $11.5 mil. AI Jr. – $13.7mil. LARRY HUGHES – $13.7 mil. Peja? $13.7 mil. J-Rich? $13.7 mil. Redd? $17.5mil. J-O’Neal? $23mil. T-Mac? $23mil. K-Mart? $16mil.

Etcetera. I’d argue that Gordon is easily better than anyone on that list right now or he will be (because of age/deteriorating skill) quite soon. Very friendly contract, IMO.

To add to QD’s point, Toronto, Houston, LAL, Miami, Orlando, and a host of other teams spending extravagantly this summer would’ve all come knocking had it not been common knowledge that he was off the market before the market even opened.

This is in reference to Gordon, BTW. Didn’t make that clear.

I applaud Joe for making the most of a shitty situation.

That he himself created?

The reason I don’t like the signing of Gordon is because of the Rip extension. I’m not crazy about Gordon, but maybe I’m completely wrong about him.

My problem is this: Trade CB for cap space; extend Rip; Announce publicly that you’re not sure Stuckey’s a PG (the only other option is SG, right?); Sign a guy who makes Rip entirely redundant and creates a massive log jam at SG (Rip/BG/Stuckey); That logjam is obvious to anyone with a brain, so when you couple that with Rip’s bad contract, it makes it really hard to get value back for Rip; and oh yeah, we’ve only got on legitimate starting big man on the roster (CV).

Does that make sense of my disjointed comment? There doesn’t seem to be any logic or connectedness in the series of moves Jod has been making, or if it’s there, I’m just not seeing it. It feels very ad hoc and thus disjointed as opposed to methodical and strategic.

I guess at this point all that’s left to ask is what did the people who are bitching about Gordon and CV expect?

Detroit, Memphis and Portland could’ve easily offered CV money and Memphis could’ve offered more than the $7m per that Detroit offered.

As far as Gordon goes, I’m happy to see him in Detroit. I’m not happy with his history of poor defense, but I am happy because he gives the team another dimension on offense. He gives the team a serious 3 point shooter, the best 3 point shooter this team has had, in my eyes, in several years. While I respect QD’s assertion that Portland could’ve signed Gordon, I don’t believe it would’ve ever gotten that far. I think deep down in his mind he knew he was going to end up in Detroit because Joe D was enamored with him as a player. Gordon is a solid scorer who can score 20 points in no time.

As far as CV goes, he could’ve ended up in Cleveland… but Cleveland would’ve had to dump some serious salary to get him since Milwaukee lost his Bird Rights after they didn’t extend him a qualifying offer.

I’m happy with the moves Joe D has made. Do I believe this is a championship team? No. Far from it. I think adding 3 guys to your core takes it’s toll, but adding 3 former lottery picks is a start when you consider 3 of the 5 starters on the 2004 championship team were lottery picks. I believe Wilcox will be better than advertised in Detroit and I think that once this team gels a little bit and gets some swagger back from last season, that all the bitching and moaning will stop.

Joe Dumars didn’t create who was available this offseason to sign as a free agent, br. Other teams generally create available players, not just 1 guy.

How do you know what other teams feel is considered a “log jam” at SG? Ben Gordon played 30+ minutes a night last year, mostly by coming off the bench. In this league you need a strong 6th man don’t you (I mean, the Spurs, Lakers and Celtics all seem to realize that or am I wrong?)? Detroit had a strong 6th man in Antonio McDyess, right?

You need to fucking relax man. Ad hoc and disjointed would be to do the Petey and re-sign Antonio McDyess for $8m per season because we had the cap space available and to make McDyess “whole” because we traded him last year, and then try to re-sign Sheed and then try to work out a sign and trade for Gordon where we give up Rip and picks.

Joe D created the cap space by trading Billups. WE FUCKING KNEW LAST OFFSEASON that he was going to make moves. We all expected it. The bitter taste is from Billups making the Conference Finals in Denver while we were watching at home.

Fucking relax.. these moves are not knee jerk reactions to a piss poor season. A knee jerk would’ve been to re-sign Dyess and Sheed and continue to try and make a run by adding another aging veteran (Shaq) via trade just to fill the arena again. Gordon and CV will be fine. Next season your ulcer will have gone away and you’ll realize how big of a douche Berri is when we have more than 28 wins.

I guess at this point all that’s left to ask is what did the people who are bitching about Gordon and CV expect?

For Dumars not to extend Rip before doubling down on another shooting guard.

CV’s contract is a steal, no doubt. Signing Gordon was dumb unless Dumars plans to move Rip soon. And since all we have to go on is Dumars’ reported interest in a three guard lineup, any plans to move Rip are purely speculative on our part.

So what did we expect? For Dumars not to sink $23+ million into the SG position, divided amongst two player with nearly identical production.

At least we don’t have $23+ million sunk into one (1) Tracy McGrady, Jermain O’Neal, Shaq, or Gilbert Arenas. Even Hiroshima didn’t seem so bad once people figured out what happened in Dresden.

I too can see the redundancy in Rip/BG. OTOH, we’ve all been bitching on how we needed to rest our starters (for the playoffs but also just for long term health).

As for the FAs this summer, there were slim pickens in terms of what we needed. We all went around-n-around regarding the Lees and Boozers of the world. Pretty much anything under 8 or 9 NYK would match. And this is a game of chicken. Sure, BG said Chicago didn’t offer him a contract and now Chi says they wouldn’t have offered him a contract. That’s an easy sell now from Chi point of view. Whether they got Salmons or Hinrich coming back, to my knowledge everyone was healthy for the playoffs and Chi just lost a ~20/nite guy. We got 2 guys who can put the rock in the hole, match our youth movement and seam generally happy to be here.

If we were Memphis fans, we’d be shitting ourselves that we were able to sign CV & BG. It’s just that they seam underwhelming because of our recent success, but I have no doubt they’ll succeed here.

As for trading CB, getting cap space and “just” signing BG/CV? Logic says that CBs value was never going to be higher, we found a willing trade partner, and that trade partner had (in essence) an expiring contract worth ~15M. There are not alot of teams that fit that criteria, in addition to a team that wanted to trade for Billups. And though not many superstars may change teams next summer, with all the teams trying to clear cap space for 2010 (even given the economics) you know some guys are going to get overpaid. Do we wait to take that chance? I don’t think so.

Who was bidding for BG/CV or would have? Nobody knows. But do you take a chance and they get an offer, that perhaps you could have matched or beaten but for some reason the guy signs for other reasons and take that chance? And to the notion “keep our cash and sign guys for one year and do this again next summer” theory, players are looking for that long term security as to preclude blowing an ACL in a contract year (Powe).

@Mike Payne

again…

Who else was out there to get that we all wouldn’t be bitching about right now? What big man, besides Villenueva, would be worth spending cap space money on?

I know you won’t say “well they could’ve done like Denver did and traded 2nd round picks for salary” because who in their right mind would give a guy that any of us would want for a 2nd round pick.

Zach Randolph for a 2nd round pick? Do you want him?
Camby isn’t going anywhere, he’s more valuable as an expiring deal.
I have a feeling that Dunleavy loves Kaman, because his contract is awful and he never seems to be available.

What would you prefer? Sit on the money and wait for an opportunity that might not come or sign young, proven talent to the team and make it work?

Why did you expect Dumars not to sink that much money into the SG position? What other player was worth it? A weakness in Detroit the last few years was what Gordon brings. Bench scoring from our backcourt, and a 3 point threat.

I believe Rip is gone, but Joe is looking for the right move. He doesn’t need to deal him but if he doesn’t we’re only working with the MLE for the next 3 years.

I’d much rather be Detroit right now than be Portland, Utah, Memphis or Cleveland.

Cleveland can’t land any of the guys they reportedly wanted, even after the King graced them with his presence and all those guys signed for MLE.

Utah is sunk with their mistakes from years past (signing Okur and Boozer to absurd contracts)

Portland can’t get a serious look in their direction from anyone (Turk, Odom)

Memphis has done nothing this offseason other than acquire a malcontent and receive free money from teams in order to complete trades to help other teams.

38 points per night for $23m is better than a torn ACL (McGrady), limited minutes (Shaq), 30ppg (Kobe), 30ppg (LeBron), etc. Gordon adds to our overall depth and gives us a quality guard coming off the bench. Something a lot of teams lack.

Chicago will miss Gordon, Reinsdorf is just a douchebag.

Boney, I think what people have a problem with is giving the extension to Rip (which seems to say that he’s the answer at shooting guard for the next few years) and then signing BG to a long, I would say reasonable, contract (which seems to say that he’s the answer at shooting guard for the next few years).

The question is: Did Dumars change his mind about Rip?

Did he change about the team in general (i.e. this team won’t compete right away so maybe I should rebuild instead of reload)?

Or did he just see Ben Gordon as too good to pass up when he became available and figured he would work everything else out later?

@Boney:
What would you prefer? Sit on the money and wait for an opportunity that might not come or sign young, proven talent to the team and make it work?

Why did you expect Dumars not to sink that much money into the SG position? What other player was worth it? A weakness in Detroit the last few years was what Gordon brings. Bench scoring from our backcourt, and a 3 point threat.

1. “Why did you expect Dumars not to sink that much money into the SG position?”

Because we just fucking extended Rip Hamilton.

2. “What other player was worth it?”

Paul Millsap.

3. “A weakness in Detroit the last few years was what Gordon brings.”

Gordon is a scoring big?

@QD:
Boney, I think what people have a problem with is giving the extension to Rip

Precisely. I like Ben Gordon. If Rip wasn’t on our team and we signed Gordon, I’d still complain about his defense but I’d be thrilled about the signing. If Joe trades Rip this season or next, I’ll be quite happy with this post-season’s moves. Unfortunately, the only indications from Dumars/PR is that we’ll keep him. I will not like this move until that changes.

I think part of Dumars’ thinking in getting Ben Gordon was that he has to do something to make the team fun to watch again. The 2004 team was fun to watch in a different way, namely the joy of seeing them routinely shut down the league’s best offenses. More importantly than that it won big. Last year’s team didn’t win many games and wasn’t entertaining either with it’s undersized players matched to a plodding offense (MCWAFI). Dumars knows the winning part will take time, but adding guys who can score will make the team more pleasant to watch right now. Though I can’t see this team winning much more than last year with the losses in defense and rebounding, I do know it will be better liked by the fans with the scoring and effort from the mostly young players.

I say all this because last year fan attendance continued to decline, and not just because of the shitty economy. People don’t want to pay to watch a team with a bad offense and average (at best) defense struggle to win 39 games. Dumars first and foremost duty is to make a team that people will pay to watch. I don’t hold it against him; that’s just the nature of the business. Though I will miss the 80-70 slug fest games that the Pistons got so damn good at winning.

I really haven’t read the entire thread, but I’m going to go with Boney on this. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. And I do think there’s something to paying a guy fairly like Joe D did with Sheed after 04 than to low-ball him and force him to take your lesser offer. People remember that, and a reputation for doing right by your players will get you consideration from other free agents who have other options.

A point of contention I have with everybody else: I don’t think Rip is overpaid. I think he’s properly compensated. Especially compared to that list of HORRENDOUS contracts that somebody listed earlier in the thread. I don’t really get having $23 million wrapped up in the SG position, but I’m also okay with Rip sticking around. I buy into the theory that you need professionals and guys who “know how to win”. Especially with a young team full of guys who haven’t won at the NBA level yet. Rip has won at every level and has been a consummate pro in Detroit. He was also low on my list of “Members of the 04 team I have a beef with for mailing in games” which would look like 1) Chauncey, 1a) Rasheed, 3) Tay, 4) Ben/Rip.

I think JOD will trade Rip I think he’s just waiting for the right deal,in the mean time if Gordons willing to come off the bench I think coach Q is bright enough to make it work for awhile ,maybe people wouldn’t be so leery of this 3 guard lineup if we hadn’t just tried the same thing with AI. and seen it fail so miserably. I know we all wanted a rebuilt front court ,and for what its worth QD. I think Gordon was just too good too pass up when I watched the Bulls Boston series I saw something in Gordon the Pistons haven’t had since the original bad boys a go to scorer that could keep them in the game when the rest of the offense is in stall mode,I know BG. needs to improve his defense and his passing but he can flat out finish and he can shoot the three as well as anybody .Who the hell knows why JOD gave Rip that extension I prefer to think it was because he was affraid Rip would opt out and screw up JOD’s plans for the summer ,we’ll probably never know but one things for sure BG. is not AI.,for the short term we’ll be fine.

I don’t think this has been brought up yet… Being able to find a trade for Rip would be great, but how long do we wait? I’m afraid that if we make another big move early in the season, it will throw our team into turmoil again. I think I’d be more comfortable if, after we make our last free agent min signing and no trade for Rip is foreseeable, Dumars came out and said this is our team, and it’s not changing. Last year’s entire pre-season was essentially wasted after the trade. I can concede a trade at the deadline if we’re definitely not performing well, but job/team cohesion security has to be worth something. Am I wrong?

The Palace’s spin doctors are good at their job— we led the league in attendance last season (again). That’s 6 of the last 7 seasons (we got second to Chi once by just a hair). Regardless of what they’re doing to fill the house (lie, give away tickets, etc.), it’s “working.”

I agree, Roll the Dyess. I like having Rip, Tay and (hopefully) Ben around because they can set a standard for the young/new Pistons to follow.

But, if there are constant trade rumors floating over Rip and Tay, that will diminish their authority.

Also, if they are the leaders and then suddenly get traded, I could see that having a negative effect.

@ Mike Payne

Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace were scoring bigs. Tell me again, who was the guy who spaced the floor and allowed to offense not to be bogged down in the middle… oh that’s right, nobody.

So you’d rather risk overpaying a guy who has proved less than Villenueva has in the league than sign a guy like Villenueva for $7m per? It’s clear that Utah was going to sign Millsap for $8m per. Why tie that money up for 7 days while Villenueva takes the MLE and signs in Cleveland?

Why would Villenueva wait? It’s clear at that point you have eyes for another player who does not have as much ability for more money.

It’s more prudent to pursue guys who are 100% available than it is to hope a restricted free agent is no longer wanted by their previous team. Shit, I’d rather do a sign and trade for an unrestricted over pinning hopes on a UFA.

David Lee is a perfect example of a guy who is getting screwed right now. The Mavericks are another example of what happens when you put a bid out there and you get screwed.

I think that Utah will regret paying Millsap what they’re paying him.

It sounds like you have sour grapes about the whole process Mike Payne. Perhaps writing a note to Joe Dumars would help get you through until the beginning of the season.

If Coach Q can bring some of the things that Coach Brown brought to the Pistons, when he was coaching. Their’s going to be alot of surprise critics in the NBA.

I think this squard is going to be alot tougher than what you guy on these blog’s think.

We’re one move away.

Great point, SadPanda. Last year’s team didn’t even look like actual basketball. There were nights when I’d watch a Pistons game and then the second game of a double-header would be Utah/Portland or something like that, and it really opened my eyes to how terrible we were playing. Like, I KNEW we were awful, but my homerism blinded me to the horrific style of ball we were playing when compared to something fluid and intelligent and efficient. I welcome the new guys and hope they bring some excitement.

@Boney:
Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace were scoring bigs.

Antonio McDyess hasn’t been a scoring big since before his injury. Rasheed Wallace hasn’t been a scoring big since 2005 at best.

Tell me again, who was the guy who spaced the floor and allowed to offense not to be bogged down in the middle…

What does that have to do with anything I said?

So you’d rather risk overpaying a guy who has proved less than Villenueva has in the league than sign a guy like Villenueva for $7m per?

And when did I ever say that? Sign Villanueva. Then sign Millsap.

“but they’re both 4’s! Millsap is undersized! Logjam for logjam!”

Ben Wallace was undersized, and after he left we made it to the ECF twice with two 4’s. Millsap and Villaneuva actually have very complimentary games in the frontcourt, and Millsap’s defense, rebounding and post play actually spells much of Villanueva’s soft spots. When we play teams with large frontcourts, we’ve still got Kwame to rotate in and/or start over Millsap.

Utah matched $8 million for Millsap, but would they have been able to match a Gordon-sized contract?

“overpay! unproven!”

I’d much rather have paid for a player who a) fills a need, b) fits Villanueva like a glove and c) doesn’t depth charge our depth chart at the wrong spot. Besides, Millsap isn’t unproven, his per minute production has been steady since his rookie year, and it scaled almost perfectly when given the minutes.

It sounds like you have sour grapes about the whole process Mike Payne.

Yeah, I do. If Joe hadn’t extended Rip, I’d be happy as pie. Maybe the 3-guard lineup will work out great. Should that day come, I’ll be thrilled and I’ll cook up some crow in the process. But this situation is one of two bonehead moves by Joe in the last year. He solved the first one when he cut MCIAFI. If he ends up moving Rip, this entire conversation will be for naught. Until then, yeah, I do have sour grapes.

I feel like I’m repeating myself though. But you asked, so I answered, whether you feel the answer was adequate or not. In short, BG was not the only option, imo.

Hey lets get one thing clear, the Pistons didn’t play Basketball last year, they played Streetball. It was times when AI and Rip was looking like they was making the play up as they go. That why last year the Pistons got that ass tap.

I think Rip and BG can coexist on the same team because this year the Pistons should have better coaching.

I’m no Suanders fan but I know he could of did a better job than Curry with AI and Rip. So before I give my opinion on the Rip and BG connection, I would like to see how Coach Q use them.

MP, I see where you’re coming from now. Millsap and Charlie V would probably work together pretty well. You compared Millsap to Big Ben, maybe he can get there, but Ben was freak strong. Instead of not knowing where you’re coming from, I’ll respectfully disagree with you now. I think Ben Gordon as a Dynamite 6th man is still better than Millsap’s upgrade over Kwame. Defense will win you championships, but Ben Gordonesque type impacts win you games. Defense is a team wide concept, Gordon is a one man take over in the fourth when everyone else goes cold type concept. Point is, for this Pistons squad, I prefer BG.

@Roll the Dyess:
You compared Millsap to Big Ben

I made no comparison other than that Big Ben, like Millsap, is undersized. That is as far as my comparison went.

I’ll respectfully disagree with you now. I think Ben Gordon as a Dynamite 6th man is still better than Millsap’s upgrade over Kwame.

I’ll respectfully disagree with you as well. I think $58 million for a bench player is batshit crazy insane stupid. If we move Rip this season, I’ll be 100% thrilled with the Ben Gordon signing, but until then, I’ve got “sour grapes”.

Alternatively, I think $38 – $40 million for Millsap to start next to Villanueva would have made this team Deadly with a capital D. Sure, we could talk hypotheticals all day long, my point isn’t so much about Millsap and more about the fact that Ben Gordon wasn’t the first and last option upon which to rebuild this team.

$38 – $40 million would not be enough to get Milsap. And maybe not Gortat or David Lee either. And with the cap shrinking next year, holding onto the rest of the cap space would not be a good idea.

$38 – $40 million would not be enough to get Milsap.

$34 million was enough. How high might Utah have gone to match Millsap? I know they said they’d match any offer, but would another $6 million passed their ceiling?

@SadPanda

I think part of Dumars’ thinking in getting Ben Gordon was that he has to do something to make the team fun to watch again.

If that’s the case, then count me out. The team in 2004 was fun to watch because we WON GAMES, and we won them by playing balls out defense. It was unique, yes, so I see your point there, but I sincerely doubt we’d remember those years as fondly as we do had we not been winning a butt load of games.

@ Other Matt

A point of contention I have with everybody else: I don’t think Rip is overpaid. I think he’s properly compensated.

Will he be when he’s 35?

I mean, I think he’s going to age well, because his game is condusive to that, but at 35, he sure as heck ain’t gonna be putting up 18 per game. And as much as I love Rip, he doesn’t do much else other than score … so when that starts to decline, you have to reevaluate compensation, don’t you?

@ MP

Yeah, I do. If Joe hadn’t extended Rip, I’d be happy as pie. Maybe the 3-guard lineup will work out great. Should that day come, I’ll be thrilled and I’ll cook up some crow in the process. But this situation is one of two bonehead moves by Joe in the last year. He solved the first one when he cut MCIAFI. If he ends up moving Rip, this entire conversation will be for naught. Until then, yeah, I do have sour grapes.

+1 and co-sign.

Two main things I keep coming back to when I think about all this.

1) The Rip extension (and subsequent signing of Gordon).

2) We needed big men, so we signed Ben Gordon.

I’m not saying BG doesn’t bring something to the table, it’s just that he doesn’t fit the immediate and perhaps more urgent needs of the team.

“$34 million was enough. How high might Utah have gone to match Millsap? I know they said they’d match any offer, but would another $6 million passed their ceiling?”

I doubt it. Portland frontloaded the shit out of that contract with a signing bonus and they still matched. I think they had it in their mind to match anything and trade Boozer. The Gortat thing was more surprising.

I really don’t think Dumars is thinking about attracting fans by adding offense. He wants to win and he knows the fans will follow a winner.

Joe knows more than any of us, what it takes to make a winner. There are a lot of pieces that need to come together. Last time, he had a great defensive player in Ben Wallace to build with and he added some offensive players in Chauncey and Rip and hired coaches in Rick Carlisle and Larry Brown who got them to play defense.

This time, he’s got the offensive players first. That doesn’t mean that he’s forgot what made the last team so successful. The Pistons are in great financial shape compared to the rest of the league. And they just need that one impact defensive player to anchor the defense.

Most likely that will be some guy we’ve never heard of. Some guy with a chip on his shoulder who plays all out all the time because he went undrafted or in the second round.

@brgulker,

I have no idea. I don’t think $12.6 at the back end of his deal is outrageous. I think his game will age well. I kind of think the plan here (in the absence of a trade) is to gradually switch Rip and Gordon’s roles. As Rip ages and won’t be able to run-run-run-run, we’ll phase him into a 6th man role. I have no idea how well it’s going to work because I don’t know what the other pieces are going to look like in the last 2 years of his deal. It’ll be him, Gordon, CV, Max, Stuckey. Other than that, who knows.

I’m entirely okay with Rip’s contract. I admit that the amount of money invested in Rip and Gordon doesn’t make sense. But let’s not parade around here and act like Rip’s contract is “horrendous”. It’s not. Horrendous contracts are ones like Michael Redd’s and TMac’s.

I agree with QD. There was no way that Millsap was available. I side with Boney on this, we’d have tied up a bunch of money only to see Utah match the deal. Then the argument would’ve been “why did we tie up all that money and see the plan B guys sign somewhere else”.

“I think part of Dumars’ thinking in getting Ben Gordon was that he has to do something to make the team fun to watch again.”

Dumars’ philosophy is not predicated on marketing nor pure offense, it’s on versatility. Here’s a quote from coach K about putting together the best team in the world, “The more versatile team you have, especially at 3 and 4, when they can do both, that adds a lot…” Granted he was talking about international play, but I feel the NBA is trending more towards quickness and leaving behind those gumpy 7 footers.

Just about every guy on our roster can play 2 positions. Versatility wins championships? We’ll see, maybe not now, but maybe in the near future it does.

Oh yeah, this is the article if you were wondering…
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=4352887

@ Other Matt:

I have no idea. I don’t think $12.6 at the back end of his deal is outrageous. I think his game will age well. I kind of think the plan here (in the absence of a trade) is to gradually switch Rip and Gordon’s roles. As Rip ages and won’t be able to run-run-run-run, we’ll phase him into a 6th man role. I have no idea how well it’s going to work because I don’t know what the other pieces are going to look like in the last 2 years of his deal. It’ll be him, Gordon, CV, Max, Stuckey. Other than that, who knows.

I think we’ll have to agree to disagree, which is fine by me.

I don’t think Rip’s contract is horrendous relative to the players you just mentioned, though.

Next year, we’re going to see the cap shrink, and we’re going to end up with about 40% (maybe more) of our cap space locked up with two guys who share one position and produce a very similar stat line, decent scoring efficiency and point totals, but below average assists, below average rebounds, below average steals.

I think it’s safe to assume that the economy will eventually turn, and the cap will eventually go up, so maybe Rip’s contract doesn’t look as bad in 2 years as it does now. But given Jod’s plan to rebuild via creating cap space and signing players, the shrinking cap coupled with Rip’s contract works against us and our ability to meet the obvious need we have (a quality Center).

I’m going to extrapolate a bit. Let’s say that at 35, Rip is still able to average about 14 points per night in a bench role (25 minutes per?). I think that’s possible, assuming he stays healthy and stays committed to conditioning. Given that Rip has never given much in the way of rebounds, assists, or steals and is a bit turnover prone, is 14 nights per game from your backup SG really worth 12+ million?

In my opinion, if you’re going to pay any bench player 12 million, he’d better be frickin’ dominant in one or two categories (monster rebounder/shot blocker, explosive scorer, highly efficient scorer, etc.), but I think if we’re honest, Rip will simply not be that at 35.

Alright, I’m done :)

On the flips side, I wouldn’t mind having 40% of our cap space locked up in two big men who averaged 12/10/1-2 blocks, which I think Gortat is perfectly capable of. If I’m Jod, I’m on the phone asking if Orlando has any interest in our boy Kwame, his seven foot frame, and his expiring contract …

For what it’s worth, I don’t think all of Rip’s last year is guaranteed. I think it’s partially guaranteed (9mil?).

“I think $58 million for a bench player is batshit crazy insane stupid”

Then san antonio and dallas both have batshit crazy insane stupid gm’s. And as for the “needs” of the team, I think Jod decided that none of the guys that were fa’s or rfa’s were going to be worth what they got paid or needed to be paid to be pried away from their current clubs (sideshow/gortat/millsap/lee/bass). I think it’s all right we paid market for a proven scorer, and got an upside guy in V for a good price (although the Milwaukee press hasn’t been too sad to see him go). I think Jod learned for Nazr that you don’t over pay just to fill a position if the talent isn’t available.

Here’s what I don’t understand from the “Rip is overpaid” crowd, what kind of contract did you want to give him? He’s a championship caliber all-star 2 guard. You want to say he doesn’t contribute much? His numbers were UP across the board last year. Not by much, but they were up. AND he spent 20 games coming off the bench. I seem to recall a stretch of games where Rip was a walking double-double.

IF you are going to re-sign him you either have to front load the deal (and kill your projected cap space) or structure the deal the way Dumars did. If you don’t want to re-sign him, you’ve now traded one half of your all-star backcourt and alienated the other half. I think that the AI experiment should make everybody realize how lucky we are to have had Rip the last 6+ years.

I admit that it doesn’t make much sense to have $23 million tied up in a pair of 2 guards, but that doesn’t mean that Rip is overpaid.

+1 to Craig.

brgulker, on what planet if you’re Orlando do you do a Kwame for Gortat deal? If I’m Otis Smith, I hang up laughing. They have to win right now. Kwame doesn’t help them do that.

Craig: -1

Ginobli is a “6th man” in name only. He’s way better and gets way more minutes than whoever San Antonio technically starts at SG. Also, for the record, he’s way better than Ben Gordon.

And Dallas has an owner willing to go deep into the luxury tax. We don’t have that. So while they can afford to pay a bench player a lot of money, for most other teams, including us, paying a bench player over $10mil per year is going to limit what you can spend on other positions.

@Craig:
"I think $58 million for a bench player is batshit crazy insane stupid"

Then san antonio and dallas both have batshit crazy insane stupid gm’s.

Notice that the starter in front of those players earns $3.8 million and $1.7 million, respectively— not $12 million. San Antonio has just under $15 million at the 2, Dallas has $12 million— Detroit has $22 million.

Let me clarify the +1 statement:

I think Jod learned for Nazr that you don’t over pay just to fill a position if the talent isn’t available.

@Other Matt:
Here’s what I don’t understand from the "Rip is overpaid" crowd, what kind of contract did you want to give him?

Is there a “rip is overpaid” crowd here?

MP, i had noticed who was starting in front of them. But that wasn’t your comment that i was replying to.

If Joe D’s learning anything, then he’ll learn (barring trade) that you can’t overpay to overstock a position even if the talent is available.

Also, Ben’s not a good PG. So the versatility of a midget 2 who’s a less-caustic version of AI is arguable.

@Craig:
Then let me rephrase my comment.

“I think $58 million for a bench player is batshit crazy insane stupid when you have a player of equivalent production and contract right in front of them on the depth chart”

Have your lawyers read over it and let me know if I need to modify.

@MP, Am I arguing a straw man? If so, fuck me. There’s been so much talk about how Rip’s contract is “indefensible” and “horrible” and “unmovable” I just assumed those were all ways of saying “overpaid”.

I think this whole argument is stupid. We basically all root for the name on the front of the jersey. If this is the group of players we start the season with, then that’s who we’re all going to be rooting for. Hell, even Boney was singing Rip’s praises last year compared to AI. I don’t want to waste time talking about how we could’ve gotten Gortat or Millsap when both of their teams went WAY over the luxury tax threshold to retain them. Those guys weren’t available.

Just sign Ben Wallace and put his brain and heart in Kwame’s body. Problem solved.

OtherMatt: <em>MP, Am I arguing a straw man? If so, fuck me. There’s been so much talk about how Rip’s contract is "indefensible" and "horrible" and "unmovable" I just assumed those were all ways of saying "overpaid".

I’ve complained a lot about Joe having extended Rip— but only since Joe signed Ben Gordon. Rip deserved every single penny of that contract. I absolutely love the guy, don’t want to see him go, and am firmly in the group that believes Rip would age well and continue to perform throughout that contract.

I said this about Rip just a few days ago:
"I do not for a second understand any criticism of Rip this last season. Yeah, he whined a bit, but a) his backcourt mate and friend was shipped out of town after b) he was extended under false pretenses, then c) he was asked to play out of position, and excelled, then d) he was asked to come off the bench after a rental superstar with a bad attitude and a lesser game.

Yet with ALL of that, he was nothing but solid this season. After a bumpy start, in spite of the ai trade, he was one of the only players with a true Piston heart this season."

To put it another way, I feel that Rip has earned every dime of his extension. I also feel that Ben Gordon was worth the contract he was given. My beef, clear and simple, is signing both— especially without the clear intent of moving one of these two pieces.

There’s been so much talk about how Rip’s contract is "indefensible" and "horrible" and "unmovable" I just assumed those were all ways of saying "overpaid".

I, for one, have only said the following:

Rip’s contract is bad, mostly because we’re going to be paying him up the arse when he’s 35 for what will realistically be 14 ppg and nothing/little else.

That is only exacerbated by the fact that we’re giving Gordon very similar money to produce an almost identical stat line.

Except that, there are only 48 minutes at the SG, so both will see reduced minutes and hence, reduced productivity.

Because, neither of them has proven they can play effectively out of position (Rip at 3, BG at 1).

I’ve never argued that Rip’s contract is unmoveable but rather that it is going to be 1) difficult to move given the shrinking cap 2) difficult to get similar value back in return, because everyone with a brain knows we’ll be trying to move Rip to get out a backcourt logjam.

brgulker, on what planet if you’re Orlando do you do a Kwame for Gortat deal? If I’m Otis Smith, I hang up laughing. They have to win right now. Kwame doesn’t help them do that.

We don’t know that Gortat isn’t available. We know that Otis didn’t want to move him for nothing (called him an asset). It’s still not clear whether or not Orlando wants to stay in luxury tax town. If they’re willing to move Gortat for a serviceable backup at a reasonable price, then maybe they would be interested in a guy like Kwame with an expiring deal.

If there’s any daunting part of his contract, it’s the years. There aren’t a lot of teams willing to take on multiple-year contracts of any kind in a trade.

Also, couple that with the fact that most teams already have their 2. He’d be easier to move if he wasn’t playing the most overstocked position in the NBA.

OT

The Spurs just signed Theo Ratliff to a one-year deal. They’re fucking HUGE up front. And they have two Euro bigs they brought over which I’ve never heard of— Ian Mahinmi and Marcus Haislip. I’m just going to assume they’re both incredible because that’s how well the Spurs scout overseas.

Spurs = 2010 NBA Champions

I’m okay with that— I’ve always seen them as Pistons-West. Great organization, great coach, great players, etc.

Since when has rip only brought scoring to this team. rip often gaurds the other teams best shooter. He has proven to be an for some stretches he was the best distributor on our team last year. And he has always drawn the opposing teams best defender.being a good distributer and drawing the other teams best defender will work wonders in our new offensive schemes.

@ Joel:
Marcus Haislip was a Bucks lottery pick out of Tennessee a few years back. Total bust. That signing is a head scratcher… especially considering that they were able to pick up Dice and Ratliff afterwords.

But, I agree. The Spurs are loaded.

I know how much you guys love statistics so I’ll throw this out there which seems to say that Rip played better at SF than he did at SG last year…

http://www.82games.com/0809/08DET7.HTM#bypos

@QD:
His rebounding is atrocious at the 3. Like, bottom five for a starter atrocious. That aside, he was great offensively at that position. But with a poor pair of rebounders in the frontcourt, Hamilton would make things worse.

@QD…how do you figure that?

I’m looking at your link right now.

His offensive rating at shooting guard is 1.8 points higher than at SF

His defensive rating is .3 higher at SF than at SG, so i guess you can say he played a tad better defense at SF than at SG, but his offensive rating was much higher at SG.

@MP

Actually, if you look at his 48 minute production by position thing, he would only get .2 less rebound(s?) per game at SF than at SG with the same playing time.

If you minutes roughly breakdown as follows:

PG: Stuckey (32), Bynum (16)
SG: Rip (16), Gordon (32)
SF: Tay (32), Rip (16)

Then, at the end of close games, you go offense/defense with Ben Gordon and Kwame/Wallace.

Everyone’s happy (except for Summers and Daye).

Cody, it says that his PER is higher at the SF position and his opponents PER is the same when he’s at both. His net PER is better at SF.

Honestly, I don’t know what PER is, but DBBers seem to love it.

MP said:

@QD:
His rebounding is atrocious at the 3. Like, bottom five for a starter atrocious. That aside, he was great offensively at that position. But with a poor pair of rebounders in the frontcourt, Hamilton would make things worse.

I co-sign one hundred percent. It’s his rebounding numbers when we’re at the 3 that are scary, when you consider what we have in the frontcourt next to him.

@ QD:

PER is Hollinger’s metric. One thing you’ll notice is that players who score a lot have high PER’s, which is why Rip’s PER at SF is so high, even though his rebounding numbers are so low.

The main critique against Win Score (Berri) is that he overvalues rebounding.

The main critique against PER is that Hollinger overvalues scoring totals vs. scoring efficiency.

I think with all the talk of numbers and stats, sometimes it seems like people forget the HUMAN element: these guys are basketball players and business men but they’re also people. Sometimes paying Rip an ass load of money is the right thing to do, whether it makes the best business sense or not. The guy has proven his value to the team and has earned his pay cheque. Even if he’s old and creaky and not producing as much by age 35, he deserves to be taken care of by the organization. You can always find ways to pinch pennies if you need to but I don’t think low-balling Rip just because we could (or Ben Gordon, for that matter) would have been the right thing to do.

Good thing there aren’t a lot of smart coaches.

If you have Gordon Stuckey and Rip out there, it doesn’t matter who you have playing the 4 and 5. Attack the rim on every play, draw fouls. Proffffffiiiiiiiitttt.

yea, 3 rebounds per 36 minutes is horrible for a SF lol…should be at least 4, closer to 5.

Anyone think there’s a chance that Memphis would trade Gasol and Jaric for Rip? There’s been talk that Mayo wants to become PG (what a surprise..ball hog wants the ball even more). Mayo becomes PG, Rip at SG, Gay at SF, Randolph PF, and Thabeet at C. That’s actually a really good starting 5. I don’t know if they would get rid of Gasol for Rip tho, unless they want Thabeet to take over right now.

I don’t want Jaric on this team. But I do want to be inside his wife. Would taking on his horrific salary be worth it if she sits courtside at the Palace occasionally?

“It’s his rebounding numbers when we’re at the 3 that are scary, when you consider what we have in the frontcourt next to him.”

It’s not like Kwame and CV are a couple stiffs. Their rebound rates (one of the few stats I look at) are average at worst.

@Cody

There’s still Mike Conley at PG. I think that Memphis brass feels he’s the long-term solution, with Mayo at SG. I doubt they’d be interested in Rip.

@ Mike Payne

If we overpay for Millsap and he is a failure this season is the move smarter than acquiring 2 proven commodities? No.

Villenueva is, the last time I checked, 6’11 and he’s a scorer. Is he a scoring big, or not?

@ brgulker

You yourself said last season that this team will not compete this season, and now you’re questioning the moves by saying “I don’t see how BG fills a more immediate need”.

So, if you had to do the offseason all over again.. what big man would you sign? Would you sign Gortat to $7m per? That’s almost as bad as offering Millsap $8 or $9m just to try and outbid Utah.

Would you sign David Lee to an offer sheet?

What if all the offers are matched and you’re stuck with nothing. Who would you trade to acquire talent? Since now that we have Ben Gordon, Rip is all of the sudden untradeable? Do we trade Tayshaun? For who.

If all the offers were matched, which they have been so far, we’d be left with Big Baby, Hakim Warrick and David Lee as “big men” who I’d consider a key addition to the franchise. Bad thing is, Warrick is 215lbs, Baby is undersized and has no toughness, and David Lee will likely be matched anyway.

So.. pop quiz hotshot… you’ve got $19 million in available cap space to sign difference makers in the offseason. What do you do?

So.. pop quiz hotshot… you’ve got $19 million in available cap space to sign difference makers in the offseason. What do you do?What do you do?

and don’t give me the “well, we’ll trade 2nd round picks for players like Camby last offseason” garbage either… because I would hope that you wouldn’t want any of those stiffs on the team.

@brgulker

Kwame for Gortat?

step away from the NBA Live 2010 controller my friend

We all agree that last season we couldn’t score for large parts of a game. Alot is MCIAFI.

We also didn’t play Detroit Defense either for large parts of games. Again, alot is MCIAFI.

We solved have the problem and with good coaching can solve the other half. And the reverse is not true. Yu either have people who can score or you don’t.

And I agree, had we waited for the dust to settle and let others set the rate, we’d be sitting here bitching about how Jod had all this cap space and didn’t use it. And no doubt some would be saying “we could have had” with BG/Cv thrown into the conversation. I agree, David Lee, Millsap, Baby. These aren’t 8-10M per year guys. Even Millsap is really the MLE front loaded. And what other “scorer” was out there?

In a perfect world we’d have a scoring big. We don’t (excl’g CV as a “big”). If this team sucks and wins 30 games, the plan didn’t go as according to plan. Neither Bosh nor Amare are considered defensive 4’s. So what’s the big deal other than a headline name signing or trading?

@Boney:
If we overpay for Millsap and he is a failure this season is the move smarter than acquiring 2 proven commodities? No.

If CV is a proven commodity and Millsap is not, why did Millsap log more minutes than CV this season? Furthermore, Millsap’s brilliant per-minute numbers in seasons 1 and 2 scaled perfectly when given starter minutes this year. The only potential for “failure” there is an injury, which neither CV or BG are immune to as well.

Villenueva is, the last time I checked, 6′11 and he’s a scorer. Is he a scoring big, or not?

I never said CV wasn’t. I suggested Ben Gordon and his new contract didn’t fill a need we’ve “had for years”. If 3-point shooting is that need and that’s his only upgrade over Rip, my point is it ain’t worth $58 million when the team has bigger fish to fry.

@the rest of your comment.

You think the BG signing was the right thing to do. Until we move Rip, I will not. You won’t change my mind, I won’t change yours. There were other options this summer in free agency and by using our space in a trade, we can piss about them all we want, but they make no less sense to me than doubling down to $22 mil at the 2 guard.

That’s a given. 2 SGs is 1 too many for that kind of scratch to each.

I don’t see it as two players, Rip and BG, for one spot. I see it as four players, Stuckey BG Rip and Tay, for three spots. I think Gordon can be the de facto point guard for limited time. If you think of it like that, there’s plenty of minutes to go around. More than likely one of the four will not be playing as well as the rest, and there won’t be any quibbling after the game because he sat the last few minutes.

@MarkButter

I think that generally it is true that coaches don’t have too much impact on offense. However, after Flip was hired the Pistons’ offensive efficiency shot way up, without a dropoff in defense or much of a personnel change. Part of that might be player improvement, but I think Saunders had a lot to do with it.

Some fresh rainbows:

For ~$22mil, if their last season stats hold up, we’re getting 39ppg on 45% shooting, 40% from 3, 1.5 steals, 6.6 boards, and 7.8 assists from the two-spot.

So essentially we’ve got ‘05-06 Kobe (with a dash of Lebron and better 3pt shooting) for less than what the Rockets are paying McGrady and the Heat are paying O’Neal.

How does that smell, Sauce?

Flip’s motion offense was suitable to that team’s strengths.

@ Joel:

But aren’t they going to give up 45 ppg?

Off-topic, but this is rich. From The Big Lead:

Camp Stories, With Chris Wilcox
1-liner, NBA TheBigLead July 24th. 2009, 3:00pm

Chris Wilcox: This from a basketball source once had a legendary encounter with the newest Detroit Piston, Chris Wilcox. "A couple years after Wilcox left College Park he came back to speak at summer camp. He was supposed to speak at 10:00 AM. At around 9:55 [a Maryland assistant asked] ‘Man, you have to go see if Chris is here. He’s running late.’ As 400 young campers waited, I went outside Cole Field House and soon spotted a little sports car (might’ve been a Benz but I can’t remember) with a rather large man sitting in it. I walked up, and sure enough Wilcox was inside talking on his cell phone. I tapped on the window and he waved me off. I tapped again and said, ‘Chris, everyone’s waiting on you.’ He then looked at me, tilted a 40 of Colt .45 Malt (seriously, finished it off) and got out of the car and went in. He then proceeded to give a 20-minute talk on the evils of drugs and alcohol."

I’m already loving the new look Pistons.

@Sauce

Yeah, probably.

Most of that is going to be Ben Gordon, too, Joel.

I’m okay with that. Nothing’s worse than having to watch Sheed routinely make Kendrick Perkins and Reggie Evans look all-world. God I’m glad he’s gone.

Looks like the Blazers are offering Andre Miller 3yrs/$21 million. That would probably be a solid pickup for them. Can’t shoot for piss though.

@ Joel

Andre Miller shoots as well as Chauncey Billups does :-\

BG has been relatively healthy his entire career.

CV has had his ups and downs.

Millsap has been injured and wears knee sleeves for a reason, not just for show like MJ did.

@Boney

What Andre Miller are you thinking of? The one who has made a total of 108 3-pointers in his entire career at 21% shooting? For reference, Chauncey made 160 3-pointers at 40% shooting LAST SEASON. It’s also worth noting that 82% of Chauncey’s attempts were jumpshots compared to 56% for Andre. This is probably because HE CAN’T SHOOT. So he doesn’t.

I generally am on board with most of your points, but you’ve got to at least try to make sense.

@ Joel

Of course I mean he produces similar totals :-\ it was a bad night last night :(