Ben and Charlie
by Gabe F-B on Jan 14, 2010 6:40 PM EST
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I've had several lengthy debates centering around Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva since the moment we signed them. I think they're both good, useful players. I don't think they're worth what we are paying them. But rather than just complain about them, I'll try to illustrate why I think signing them for a combined $90m+ was a mistake.
The best way I can think of to do this is create a comparison of somewhat similar players, who were also free agents and signed for less money and to shorter contracts, and show their career stats through last season; which was obviously all the information Jod had at the time he made the signings. Then compare their current seasons and see how they are playing (all of this is with the caveat that Gordon/CV have been dinged up).
Charlie Villanueva:
There were several players who I thought could provide similar production to CV, and were available for significantly less money.
Here are CV's career stats through last season, along with three other PF's who were free agents this off-season: Drew Gooden, Hakim Warrick, and Channing Frye.
CV is the youngest (24) and the highest scorer by PPG's and points per/36 minutes- we signed him for roughly $35m over five years. Gooden is the oldest (27) and best rebounder- he signed a one year deal with Dallas for $4.5m. Warrick is the second oldest (26) and the most efficient scorer- he signed a one year deal with the Bucks for $3.5m. Frye is below the other three in most categories, but he came with the cheapest price tag- just $2m/year for two years.
Now click here for their stats from this season. The results:
Pretty consistent from what we saw through their careers: CV is still the highest scorer both by PPG's and points per/36. Gooden is still the best rebounder. The biggest shift is Frye has seen an abnormally huge jump in his efficiency and currently has a far better TS% and eFG% than the other three.
Comparing advanced metrics: CV has the highest PER at 16.7, the other three each have about a 14.7 PER. Frye has the highest WinShare, CV the second highest; though considering how WinShares works, and the fact that CV has played more minutes than Gooden and Warrick, I'd guess the three are about equal by that metric. By ORtg and DRtg, Frye again looks the best with O: 120 and D: 109, Warrick is at O: 106 and D: 106, Gooden is at O: 101, D: 101, and CV is at O: 107, D: 108. A pretty negligible difference between the three guys not named Frye.
Ben Gordon:
First of all, in fairness to Gordon, this was a particularly horrible free agent class of SG's. Though, that does beg the question of why Jod went after the only highly regarded SG on the market when we already had Rip and Afflalo.
Anyway, here are Gordon's career stats through last season, along with the career stats of two other small scorer/shooters, and a third decent SG, who were all free agents: Nate Robinson (he was restricted, but IMO a multi-year offer would not have been matched), Von Wafer, and Rodney Carney.
Gordon scored the most points per game and per/36, was the most efficient scorer, and had the second highest assist rate, but he had the lowest rebound rate of the four and highest turnover rate (somewhat excusable because he also had the highest usage %), and he was the oldest player at 25- we signed him for around $55m over five years.
Robinson scored the second most points per game and per/36, he also dished the highest rate of assists, and was the second best rebounder- he re-signed with the Knicks for a single year at $4m and will be unrestricted this offseason. Wafer and Carney are below the other two in most categories, though they both had very low turnover rates- Carney signed for the minimum (about 800K), and Wafer signed overseas, but quickly tried to come back to the Rockets for about $1m, but failed his physical and is now in limbo.
Here are Gordon, Nate, and Carney's stats from this season, and Wafer's stats from just last season (I'm including Wafer because he increased his efficiency when given a larger role with Houston, and fits the "player-type" of "bench scorer").
Gordon still scores the most per game, but despite being benched for a few weeks, Nate now has a slightly higher pts per/36 minutes than Gordon, and has been more efficient. Carney hasn't played a ton of minutes, but has improved his 3 pt%. Wafer obviously hasn't done anything this year, but last season, when given the role of "designated bench scorer" he showed himself to be fairly effective and efficient (about equal to Gordon's current efficiency this season).
Gordon is without a doubt the best player among them (though IMO Nate is very underrated). The question is, how much better is he?
What is a better use of resources: 800K spent on someone like Rodney Carney and $12m spent on David Lee, or $11m spent on Ben Gordon and $3m spent on Chris Wilcox?
Or, what about a three year contract at $4-5m/year for Nate Robinson and a two year deal at 4m/year for Gooden, leaving us with $11m still left to spend? And don't say, "we already had MFWB." I've watched Houston play Brooks and Lowry together plenty of times this season, and seen them cause havoc with their dribble penetration. IMO, Nate also would have been an amazing combo with Stuckey.
Wrapping it up:
Ultimately my problem with Jod signing Gordon and CV isn't that I think they are bad players, it's that IMO they are somewhat common "player-types." While Gordon is very, very, very good at his specialty: deep shooting, there are always limited players, like Von Wafer, available who can perform a reasonable approximation of Gordon's strengths, but have a much lower price tag.
IMO, the same is true of CV. Yes, he was the most versatile scorer of the available PF's. But we signed him to a much longer and more expensive contract than the other available PF's received, and IMO it is not clear that he is much of an upgrade over players like Drew Gooden or Hakim Warrick (I don't think Frye's improvement was foreseeable, but IMO his low price tag should have been a draw for us).
I see both CV and Gordon as "floor spacing" role-players. There is clearly value in that, but they are being paid as more than just role-players. With the number of holes we had to fill on our roster this past offseason, I would have really, really preferred a more "bargain basement" approach.
Jod could have signed at least two, possibly three of: Gooden, Warrick, Frye, Robinson, and Carney, while still having enough money left to make a run at someone like David Lee.
We'll see how Jod's next few moves work out, and how he continues to rebuild the roster. Even though I'm admittedly not crazy about the steps Jod's taken so far, I'm hoping for the best along with everyone else.
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I do agree with you...
but I do not mind CV’s contract just because I think his scoring ability is something the Pistons will needs over the years, especially at that position. the thing in my opinion that would make his contract a bit easier to accept would be an upgrade at center. Wallace is playing great but the man is up there in age. A young, cheap, big man, who can defend well, and do little bit of scoring (aka more than Ben Wallace) will help justify this contract. I don’t know who will be this big man, but the draft is a good place to start.
Ben Gordon to me has yet to get the chance to prove himself in the other area that he is a bit known for scoring in the close games. Rodney tends to take over and guys like Rip enjoy having the ball in those situations as well. I don’t think it makes his contract look any better but it’s a facet of his game I think we have yet to see and truly evaluate. Really the reason I don’t like Ben Gordon as much as CV is because his ball handling sucks. If you’re a guy who spends some time at point, than your ball handling had better be pretty damn good. if you’re generally considered “above average or better” as a player, than your ball handling had better be “above average or better.” I’ve seem him bounce the ball off his foot to many times for me to think the contract is worth it. Now if I get to see him carry this team to victory a few times, I may be able to forget this ugly facet of his game. Until than, of the two contracts…Ben Gordons is more ucka.
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Dumars watched Gordon take over as well.
That’s why he went out and made him a Piston, I think.
Gordon has, at times, been a game-changer.. seen the Bulls down by sometimes double digits, and drag them up out of those deficits pretty much single-handedly.
He has yet to prove he can do that in Detroit- but I’d encourage people to be fair, he’s been injured and we’re not even halfway through the season.
We gotta give these new guys a little more room to adjust before we go labeling them as salary busts. Seriously.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
by Skylar on Jan 14, 2010 11:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good post, I think that’s a pretty accurate explanation of Jod’s thinking, though I don’t totally agree with Jod’s logic. I think “clutch” stats are pretty volatile because they are made up of such small sample sizes, but it does seem to be something Jod values highly (maybe correctly?).
We gotta give these new guys a little more room to adjust before we go labeling them as salary busts. Seriously.
I hope it didn’t come across like I was declaring them poor players. Obviously neither is an Eddy Curry or Jerome James type of bust. I was mainly trying to point out that some other guys were available who may have been able to provide a portion of Gordon or CV’s production for less salary, and allowed us to spread our resources out (IMO more efficiently). But of course it’s all just IMHO, and I’m 100% rooting for Gordon and CV to prove me completely, utterly, ridiculously wrong.
Nice article Gabe
+rec
Tough to argue with many of your points. I’m with madpoopz above re: CV’s contract being pretty fair, and I’m most certainly with MFSKZ about giving the new fellas some room.
I was with you even before those signings, when the rumors hit, that they were mistakes. I was with you that Rip’s extension was a mistake, and I was with you that our draft picks were poor. As an early pessimist with the likes of you and Gulk-money, I’m still with you now and with the added pessimism that our collective pre-season foresight has fallen into place. I think Detroit’s greatest weakness is management. And while I like the CV signing and I think Gordon, in spite of a bad contract made worse by Rip’s extension, will improve upon himself.
I’ve said this before, recently, that some may argue that hindsight is 20/20. But I remember vividly many of us predicting this very event with the poor management decisions in the last year and a half.
Again, +rec buddy
by Mike Payne on Jan 15, 2010 1:31 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, Gabe
I’ve said this before, recently, that some may argue that hindsight is 20/20. But I remember vividly many of us predicting this very event with the poor management decisions in the last year and a half.
Rec’d for truth. There’s no hindsight bias going on here. I know with certainty that the three of us — and I seem to remember Shinons and Bill Higgins as well — being quite disappointed this summer. We spent so much time analyzing the potential moves that could be made, and never for a second did we think that we’d end up with Gordon + CV + Wilcox.
And you can’t leave Wilcox out of this discussion. He’s a bad player. And his contract is terrible.
I also want to respond to MFSKZ: I think the reason that Gabe and I (And to a large extent MP and others) aren’t as patient as may seem prudent is because we’ve severely limited our financial flexibility with these two moves + Rip’s contract extension. I know that you’re making a good point — we have to be patient and see the final product — but on the flip side, we’re very limited in what we can do outside of trades.
Right now, we absolutely need an Al Jefferson, a young Ben Wallace, Marc Gasol — there’s no way we’re back on the winning track without a beast like that. But unfortunately, we don’t appear to have the resources to get one in the immediate future.
I know that above is the reason for my continued frustration/pessimism, anyway. We had so many possibilities one year ago. Now, we a whole lot less and a couple mediocre players instead.
Gabe, what about win scores? Did you compare those at all?
Agreed. I’m just trying to temper the pessimism.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
And I appreciate that
I’m a little bit of a pessimist by nature.
I become a big pessimist when my favorite team is on track for the lottery … keep doing what you’re doing, bro. I appreciate it.
br: I didn’t compare win scores, was trying not to pile on too many different stats from different places. I know that Gordon and CV have max’d out at about average according to win score, but I didn’t want to complicate things with extra links and explanations. I wish http://www.basketball-reference.com/ compiled win score numbers and would fit them in with the other advanced stats. Also, win shares has been kinder to Gordon and CV through their careers, so was trying to give them the benefit of the doubt.
I'll piss in your fucking shoes.
Yeah. The Joel. By the way, how tits are all these auto-HTML tag buttons? Me likey.
"If you think you know what the hell is going on, you're probably full of shit."
Robert Anton Wilson
by The Joel on Jan 15, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
At least it's a good year...
I become a big pessimist when my favorite team is on track for the lottery…
I wouldn’t mind avoiding a first-round rape if it meant getting a guaranteed impact player (which the top-10 picks of this draft should guarantee).
Here’s some food for thought— we all have a boner over Varnado, which is both understandable and deserved. But for whatever reason— no offensive game, smallish school, etc.— he’s still expected to be a late-first, probably second-round pick. I think that whatever trade(s) we end up pulling off need to be 1) with a contender-ish team (who else is going to want Rip/Tay anyway?) and 2) needs to include their 1st-rounder in the package in return.
This way we could take “lottery-stud guy” and also snag Varnado with our late-twenties pick. Shitty thing is, we really need a point guard, and we took 4 SF’s in what might go down as the greatest PG draft of all time.
"If you think you know what the hell is going on, you're probably full of shit."
Robert Anton Wilson
by The Joel on Jan 15, 2010 10:33 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
The Joel is here!
it ain’t the same without you, MFJoel.
by Mike Payne on Jan 15, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dominant Post Presence
The Pistons have many perimeter players and not enough Players that can demand a double team in the post. That was my only problem with the free agent signings.
Also when Bynum and Gordon come back I believe you will all realize that we just have way to many cooks in the kitchen. (Hamilton, Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon) If anyone of them had to go I believe it would be Hamilton even though I believe he is the most consistent scorer out of them and can make his own shot when the game is not on the line.
I know this has nothing to do with CV or Gordon but as far as post presence goes. Sometimes Kwame Brown suprises me when he gets the ball in the post and makes a strong move to the hoop. Hes no Dwight Howard or anything but for that one second it often makes me question why he comes off the bench. Then on the next possession I am reminded why…
You miss the most important part.
David Lee was restricted. It’s very hard to sign away restricted players without overpaying them by quite a bit, not to mention you have wait seven days to wait for the other team to match. It’s entirely possible we give New York a toxic offer and they still match (this happened with Utah and Portland last year, even with Utah facing a massive salary tax bill).
As for the Frye/Gooden/Warrick/Villanueva debate.
Frye was completely unseen, as he looked like he was on his way out of the league, and keep in mind he’s in a place like Phoenix where he can shoot to his heart’s content. Keep in mind that he’s shooting a ridiculous .597 TS% right now, which is both much higher than his career average or any individual season. You would have been Notradamus to predict that kind of rise in production, when you look at his prior three seasons. Yeah, he might have been worth the risk at $2 million but the problem becomes the fact that his second year is a player option means he’s gonna get paid big time this offseason.
I never got the obsession with Warrick, mainly because we already have a bunch of tweener forwards. Warrick is just another PF traded in a SF’s body. He would have been nice a couple seasons ago, but right now I don’t see the point.
And Gooden? Gooden’s already 28. He doesn’t have as much room for growth as any of these other players.
As for Gordon, Gordon is more than just an elite outside shooter. He’s an elite scorer, period. We got see that early on, how Gordon can score any number of ways, whether it be driving to the hoop, using the floater, shooting the three, fading away, etc. His offensive abilities ranks up there with the Kobe Bryant’s of the league. The reason why he isn’t a superstar, however, is two-fold: his shot selection isn’t the greatest (but by no means bad, just could be a little headier) and he does nothing else at an above average clip. See, a guy like Joe Johnson isn’t a better scorer than Gordon. But he’s a better playmaker and rebounder. It’s why he’s looking a $15+ million this next extension and Gordon got $11 million.
See, Gordon will pay dividends the most when Rip is out of the way, and that’s the crux of the problem. Once Rip is removed (and I still maintain that it will be relatively soon), then Gordon can show you why he’s worth $11 million a season. The guy can take over games like most superstars, which is something this team has been lacking the last few seasons. Just don’t ask him to do much else.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 16, 2010 7:43 AM EST reply actions
Couple things:
It’s very hard to sign away restricted players without overpaying them by quite a bit
This is generally true. But there can be exceptions when teams are desperately trying to save money (i.e. the Bucks and Sessions), and I think Lee was pretty underrated (maybe even by the Knicks), so IMO it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could have been nabbed with a fairly reasonable contract offer. Utah, being a playoff team with a star/franchise player already in DWill, was in a very different situation than then Knicks.
Gordon is more than just an elite outside shooter. He’s an elite scorer, period.
Here are Gordon’s shot distribution charts.
Those are from each of Gordon’s 6 seasons. His most balanced season, 80% of his overall field goal attempts were jump shots (!). Every other year his shot distribution has been even more skewed toward jump shots.
Gordon’s an incredible jump shooter- he has consistently scored more efficiently on jump shots than on close shots throughout his career. That doesn’t mean he’s not a great scorer, but his greatest strength as a player is his jump shot… and I don’t think it’s an insult to describe him as mainly an elite jump shooter, because if you look at his career stats, it’s empirically true.
Gordon as an elite scorer
Apart from Gabe’s shot charts (which are very convincing, IMO), I think you’d be hard-pressed to prove a case that Ben Gordon is an “elite” scorer.
Elite is one of those words that gets used for the best of the best — perennial All Stars who are perennially among the best in the NBA at what they do. Ben Gordon has been neither.
He’s a great jump shooter, and he’s decent at drawing fouls. But he’s an iffy ball handler, which limits the ways in which he can score the basketball.
Oh, and Nate Robinson?
There’s not enough “w’s” I could put at the end of “ew” to describe my feelings about him.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 16, 2010 7:44 AM EST reply actions
I like how the first night he came of D'Antoni's DNP suspension
he went and put up 41. Just to stick it to him.
I wouldn’t wanna play for that guy. I think Nate gets a bad rap.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Skylar: +1
I live in NYC and watch Knicks games fairly regularly, and I can say very confidently that Nate is a lot better than people give him credit for. He’s not the brightest crayon in the box, which limits his overall upside, but he can have a huge impact on games because he’s such an unusual NBA player.
Overall it’s really, really close. MFWB is tiny for the NBA, but Nate is insanely pint-sized, he’s almost exactly 3 inches shorter than Bynum.
Because of how small he is, Nate’s quickness is basically impossible for a normally sized NBA player to keep up with, but MFWB is stronger and more aggressive going to the rim. The main difference between them is Nate has a much better jump shot, which is why I think he would have been a great combo with Stuckey (especially if we continue to transition to a more fast paced team). MFWB has much better PG skills, but he’s not a very good fit in a backcourt with Stuckey.
Keep in mind.
Ben Gordon’s Clutch Statistics. He had a ridiculous .569 eFG% in late game situations (last five minutes) where the score difference is 5 or less last season. Kobe Bryant (.509) can’t match that. That’s something guys like Carney, Von Wafer, or Nate Robinson will never be able to provide.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 16, 2010 7:56 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with TJL. Give Gordon a chance and he’ll prove why he’s worth what we’re paying him. At the beginning of the season there were people saying we weren’t paying him enough based off his awesome play. Maybe he was just totally in the zone and he won’t completely get back to that level, but his play right now isn’t indicative of what everyone in the league knows he’s capable of.
by garrettelliott on Jan 16, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with TJL. Give Gordon a chance and he’ll prove why he’s worth what we’re paying him.
I love it how TJL preaches patience on Ben and Charlie, but the opposite for Rip. Rip starts slow every season, but somehow this one must be different… It’s okay for TJL to complain about Rip, but not for anyone to complain about Ben or Charlie thus far.
Selective patience is selective.
well...
I’m not gonna defend TJL here because I don’t know for sure if that is his stance of Rip, if it is mine is similar. The reason for such is basically Rip just rubs me the wrong way. I don’t really have a basketball reason for putting him on a short leash. Maybe someone can help me rationalize my short patience with Rip the same way you guys helped me rationalize my sudden hate of James Posey the other night?
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reminds me of work...
“yes sir.” “no problem sir” “you want your ham to look like sawdust so you don’t have to chew it sir?”
I say those words to often at work. They do irritate me. Thanks for some rationalization.
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I say "ayessur" all the time.
Pharrell or Rip started it.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
It’s just the preferences of one dude. We all have our favorites, and our not-so favorites.
My faves are Wallace, Jerebko, and MFWB.
My not favorites are Wilcox and Mickey York
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Ben Gordon from a Bulls' fan perspective
I have watched almost every game Ben played for Chicago. I will never forget some of the amazing moments he gave us. He hit an amazing three with 4.5 seconds to go against Boston in the playoff game we won in double overtime. I was at the game and it was amazing. I was in Milwaukee when he had 48 points and Redd had 50 points in a game we came back from 20 points in the fourth quarter and won in overtime. I can find other examples but you get the idea.
Ben will win games for you. However there is another side to Ben’s value – Ben’s defensive liability. In the Boston series Ray Allen torched Ben. That was not a unique occurance as I remember so many times Ben would score and the other team quickly came back and did the same. I don’t believe Ben is the worst defender in the NBA. He just is too short. I met Ben a few years ago and we had a great conversation. He is definitely not a locker room problem. I am 5’ 9" and there is no way Ben Gordon is over 5’ 9". He certainly is not 6’ 2" as listed. Ben will contribute to you being down by 12 just as much as he will be the key to getting you back in the game the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. I know it is not in your plans but I would keep Rip and continue to have BG come off the bench. Ben needs to have the ball to get into rhythm and hurts team ball movement. As you can see I was on the side of not overpaying Ben and so far feel we made the right decision.
As you may know what the Bulls were going to do with Ben Gordon has been a hot topic on our blog, BlogaBull. The outcome of not signing him is still to be determined. Whether we pick up a good free agent this summer will go a long way to see if we did the right thing. I am rooting for you to beat the Knicks again today. Thanks for letting me post.
Does anyone really think
you can build a championship around those two guys?
Personally, I would like to see more of the guys who were drafted this year and see what they have. Jerebko and Daye look like they may be able to add something for the future.
Summers is abysmal with his shooting pct.
Tay and Rip look like they do not have it anymore. They are both shooting around 40%.
So is Stuckey, for that matter, but I think his all around game has improved.
CV and BG might be good pieces in the right system, but the Pistons look like they need a lot right now. Most especially bigs.
I think...
that you need to give Summers some more minutes before you can call him abysmal at anything. He’s only played 198 minutes amongst 23 games. That only averages out to 8 minutes per contest. Very little minutes couples with stretches of DNP’s does not make for consistent playing time.
Tay has played almost as inconsistently as Summers in terms of playing time. While he may get 30 minutes per game compared to Summers 8, Tay has never had injury be part of his game. We know that Tay has played through pain, but what we don’t know is if he knows how to deal with injury. It could be mental, it could be physical, or maybe Tay is just plain ol’ starting to suck. Until I see him start playing more than 3 or 4 games in a row, I’m not gonna say that “he doesn’t have it anymore.”
Rip on the other hand…well he keeps on shooting…and keeps on missing.
Personally I think Stuckey is pretty damn good considering all the shit he’s had to endure over his career. Broken hand, Curry, AI, playing between the ego’s of AI and Rip, rebuilding season with a plethora of injuries.
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Good points on Stuckey
As far as Tay, is he going to play more than a few games in a row?
I agree with the comments on Rip and AI.
The AI move ranks right there with Darko on Joe D’s resume.
I know Daye needs to bulk up and Jerebko has his limitations, but I take it you are not disagreeing on CV and Gordo?
Not disagreeing about CV and Gordon...
They are pieces. They both have the ability too fulfill needs that this team needs but they are not answers.
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BEN and CV the new RIP and Tayshaun
I don’t see Rip and Tayshaun being apart of the future . Ben can score like RIP and CV can do some of the things Tayshaun can do. Ben and CV are just pieces ,we are going to add another piece through the draft ,once we start winning you will see why we payed them .
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