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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Tank


1) I was one of those who thought the Iverson trade would work out. If he didn't fit, we'd still have all that cap space...

2) I was talked into believing Rip's contract extension was a great hedge to the A.I. trade.

3) I believed Dumars that signing Ben Gordon and Charlie was our best move this summer.

4) I believed it was stupid to tank and try to completely rebuild. It turns out it's probably a lot worse to be stuck in mediocrity than getting in the lottery for a few years in a row.

5) BUT, I still think Dumars is one of the best in the biz.

A few observations:

6) While going through numerous trade ideas, reading people's comments here, plus reading espn articles; I've discovered there is pretty small market for Tay or Rip.

7) We stink.

8) When we stink, it's a lot better to watch players that play hard.

9) Successful veterans hate losing, thus don't play hard.

10) When we stink, it's detrimental to our franchise's future to have long term, high paying contracts.

So, I propose:

Conclusion) Joe Dumars seeks out trades of Rip and Tay for young players on decent contracts who play hard OR expiring contracts.

 

Like usual I came up with a trade, but this is more of an example because there's a lot more ECs and young guys that play hard than Superstars on the market.

For those that like to be visually stimulated: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yzsbure

Detroit gets: Gortat, John Salmons, Brandon Bass, Kyle Korver, and Jerome James(6.6 EC)

Orlanda gets: Tayshuan and Tyrus Thomas

Chicago gets: Carlos Boozer, JJ Redick, and Chucky Atkins

Utah gets: Rip

Draft Picks: will probably be involved

With this trade we would get our coveted Gortat on a good contract. We get a backup sg who plays hard and good D in John Salmons. Brandon Bass, a guy I wanted in the summer, is a young solid pf with room to grow. Kyle Korver is more or less an expiring contract, but if Ben Gordon never gets fully healthy we'll need him. Jerome James is 100% expiring contract. Also, we'd have to buy one player out.. I don't make those decisions.

This will bring us below the cap for the summer. According to ESPN the projected cap next year will be $53.6 mil and according to Hoops Hype Salaries we will be committing to $43.8 mil, which according to math gives us about $10 mil to spend -- or not spend -- in the summer.

So why would the others make the trade:

I was snooping around the Orlando SB blog and it turns out they wouldn't mind having Tay. They also talked of Gortat as a trade chip rather than a long term player. Tyrus Thomas, I think, would be the most important piece for us to them. They do it if they covet Thomas, think he'll fit perfectly into their system, and will be the X-factor to take them back to the championship. He's also an EC.

Chicago gets a half-season lease on a guy that could give them a big push into the playoffs in Carlos Boozer. I mean, if they want Rose to get some playoff experience.. they have to make the playoffs. JJ is there to give them another sg, becuase they seem to be lacking in that position. Also Chucky Atkins and Lindsey Hunter can tell war stories together.

If money is all that's on Utah's  mind, this should be a no brainer for them. According to ESPN this year's luxury tax line is $69.9 mil. Utah is currently $14 mil over the tax line. This trade would take $6 mil off Utah's books, which mean $12 mil in savings. Also, Utah wants to get something out of Boozer, and I think Rip would team well with D. Will.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/detroit.htm

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We’re not trading for cap space. I think it has been made very clear that even if we lost both Rip and Tayshaun in expirers (such as trading for T-mac or O’Neal), we would still have very little to play with. You’re not taking into account two draft picks this summer, one likely being a lottery pick who will get quite a big chunk of that $10 million. Not to mention we will need to resign Bynum, most likely, and Ben if he doesn’t retire.

by Apocalyptic0n3 on Jan 25, 2010 1:21 PM EST reply actions  

And Dumars has said he is looking for “long term answers” and not short term relief.

by Apocalyptic0n3 on Jan 25, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I forgot about the draft picks, but I think we can still resign Bynum, since he’s restricted, after using up all our cap space.

Also, if the Pistons are being sold, Dumars isn’t looking for anything long term.

by Roll The Dyess on Jan 25, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, if the Pistons are being sold, Dumars isn’t looking for anything long term.

I understand your logic, but don’t agree with it— if anything, Joe needs to improve the roster to improve the win forecast to improve ticket sales to improve the value of the team. Shedding contracts does not necessarily improve the value of a team for sale.

by Mike Payne on Jan 25, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Cap holds

Before we re-sign Bynum, there will be a cap hold that applies to our base salary as a team. I think it’s 3 times the previous year’s salary.

So you gotta include that in any analysis (I didn’t go in depth with that in my post because it’s boring and complicated)

by brgulker on Jan 25, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

if we are going to tank i would rather that we just hold steady with who we got (minus tay and rip) and let the youngins play.

just trade tay and rip for whatever we can get and see where we are around the draft. if we get into the lottery perhaps we can unload some guys to move up a couple of picks.

by dandresden on Jan 25, 2010 11:35 PM EST reply actions  

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