You Kiddin' Me? Playoffs!?
by Packey on Jan 4, 2010 12:54 PM EST
in Detroit Pistons News
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PrintWatching football yesterday got me thinking a lot about the playoffs. Since the Lions don't (ever it seems) fall into the NFL playoff picture, I started thinking about the Pistons. Detroit media have been all over the possibility that the Pistons will not make the playoffs for the first time in a decade and the city of Detroit could be without a hockey or basketball playoff team for the first time since 1983.
As it stands now, the Wings are half way through their season and rank just a few points from the bottom seeds in a very evenly powerful Western Conference. The Pistons, 50 games from season's end, find themselves three games back of the bottom seed, but in a very equally bad Eastern Conference.
Coincidentally, Vince Ellis of the Free Press published a story this morning about the Pistons' uphill battle toward a playoff berth:
Let's say a record of 39-43 can get an Eastern Conference team in the playoffs as did for the Pistons last season when they were the No. 8 seed. The Pistons would have to go 28-22 over their last 50 games to reach that goal -- not exactly a daunting task, but with the injuries and inconsistency the team has battled so far, it could be a goal out of reach.
What complicates the Pistons' chances even further is that teams that struggled to begin the season are starting to play well. The Knicks, Raptors, Bulls and Bobcats, considered the Pistons' competition at the bottom of the playoffs standings, have all put together impressive victories lately.
I know Matt commented in the past on the Pistons' chances once they were in the playoffs, but I think, as we've progressed deeper into the season, it's becoming clear that the Pistons are just as, if not more, likely to be on the outside looking in when the regular season ends in mid-April.
It seems kind of absurd to be even talking playoffs with 61% of the games left on the slate, but the team that we've seen over the last nine games is anything but one capable of going 28-22 to close out the season (obviously, because they lost the past nine). Even if they do turn it around and start winning at a .560 clip to hopefully make the playoffs, Matt wondered in the aforementioned post if it's even worth it for the Pistons:
Extending Detroit's playoff streak would look nice in the record books, but if they can't even get out of the first round, it means nothing -- and, you could argue, might set the franchise back considering they won't have a chance at winning the draft lottery.
I think the Pistons have a better shot at making the playoffs than getting enough lotto balls to fall in favor of landing a talent like John Wall, but those would certainly be exciting discussions (prayer groups) to be a part of. (UPDATE Thanks to Mike Payne -- Hollinger's Power Rankings actually put the Pistons odds of making the playoffs at 4% and chance to win the lottery at 8%, so my gut feeling is not exactly backed up by statistics here).
Making the playoffs and losing in the first round wouldn't be so bad, though. I think (psychologically at least) there is value in getting the rookies, and anyone else who has never been, some playoff experience before truly contending. It wouldn't be a complete wash, anyway.
Though the outcome seems ominous, I think we'll get a better idea what we can expect over the next month or so. The Pistons need to end their nine game losing streak in a bad way and to their advantage they've had almost a week to prepare for these upcoming games and rest wounded bodies. We can probably clear up any cloudy playoff forecasts by the end of January, after the 'stons complete their last major home stand (six games). What do you think?
And what good is the title of this without its source?
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my gut says this...
The Pistons will make an impressive run at the end, but will be on the outside looking in.
My gut also says, use those Taco Bell gift certificates.
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These guys don’t tank… they don’t necessarily win either, but they don’t tank. I haven’t watched every game this season but I don’t think this Pistons team has alot of quit on the current roster.
AInge’s boys throw the second 1/2 of their season for the draft- Dumars wouldn’t even consider it.
I can’t say they’ll do well enough to sneak into the playoffs this season, but they’ll give it a shot. This is a rebuilding season, new coach, burn for the rookies.. it’s tough to watch at times (especially with a 9-game losing streak) but it kicks the shit out of where we were this time last year.
by Skylar on Jan 4, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
A tall order... but play to win regardless.
39 wins is a very tall order, IMHO. I think the general consensus going into the season (at least at DBB) was that the Pistons would be a .500, give or take, team. In the East, that’s an almost-guaranteed playoff spot.
It looks like the East is a little worse from top to bottom than anticipated, so a losing team (or two?) might make the playoffs. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we’ll get into the playoffs, but if it requires 39 wins to get there? I guess I’ll take a wait-and-see approach; I’ll believe this team is capable of a 56% winning percentage when I see it (yes, I realize I’m a pessimist about this).
That said, it would be a shame to see this squad implicitly or explicitly pack it in and play for the lottery. No matter how bad it gets, it’s better for the overall state of the franchise to make the 1st round of the playoffs and lose than it is to play for the lottery. It’s about building a culture of winning, not losing.
Plus, odds are, we’d end up with a pick 3-4 spots higher than we’d get after getting bounced out of the first round anyway.
Play hard. Play to get into the playoffs, no questions asked. Playing for the lottery shouldn’t happen around here, and I agree with Skylar — won’t happen on Jod’s watch.
No lose situation
Play hard and make the playoffs, the team exceeded expectations and the young ones get a small taste of success. Play hard and lose and get a shot at the lottery.
I think if they make the playoffs it will be a quick first round exit and they don’t they won’t get a high pick. But that ain’t a concern for me. What should be important is trying to maximize the season towards enhancing the abilities of our new/young players and develop some cohesiveness.
i dont think they will make the playoffs this year
the other lower tier teams in the east are starting to play better. if we make it, thats great, though last years sweep at the hands of lebron was pretty pathetic and hardly even worth watching. maybe this years squad could somehow make a 4 game sweep entertaining to watch, but im expecting that if we make the playoffs it wont be very pretty.
i dont think we are going to “tank it” but we will probably lose a lot of games because we might not be a very good team right now. we have been getting blown out by the teams that we are supposedly fighting for the 8 seed with. i think we could very well end up in the lottery and get a top 5 pick.
My ideal scenario
I really hate to root against my own team, but with all the injuries it feels like this season is lost already. Plus every time I watch Kentucky or Kansas I start feeling basketball lust for John Wall and Xavier Henry. Those two kids can really play.
Ideally I’d like to play the rookies a ton, see progress, but land solidly in the middle of the lottery without feeling all dirty about it. What’s the worst case scenario picking around 6th or 7th? Cole Aldrich or JaJuan Johnson? Patrick Patterson? Athletic bigs that could easily slot in at the 4 or 5? Sure, that sounds good.
Chances are...
The chances the Pistons make the playoffs are pretty good. Out of the 50 games left they are capable of going 35-15 but I dont want to see that. As it stands right now we are getting a top 7 draft pick. A few more losses here and there could put us into the top 3 therefore setting us up to draft a top player more notibly Derrick Favors from Georgia Tech who is a PF or even Donatas Motiejunas from Europe who could be the franchise center the team is so despratly looking for. That doest mean that we cant win the top pick in the draft and get John Wall probably the best PG to ever come out of college besides Jason Kidd. Stranger things have happened in the draft like the Bulls going from the 11th pick up to the top pick. But its alot easier in your a top 4 team to move up to the first so I think they should just think of the future and get that franchise player in place and make a go of it next season. Maybe even give Rod Benson a go this season. He’s a free agent playing in the D-League and blogs all the time. Just sayin… He could be a diamond in the rough.
You meant 15-35, right? 35-15 sounds like a Curry press conference. If we play with sensurgency and bebound the basketball and score more than the other guys, we might win 35 games.
BATMAN SYMBOL
2010 it is....
i say let’s begin a new decade of success. And this can only start by releasing some of the guys that helped make the past decade a success: Rip and Tay. In a move simular to last year’s AI deal, the Pistons should regretfully ship those 2 to Houston for McGrady’s expiring contract and 2010 and 2011 first round picks. It seems that Rip and Tay no longer fit into our future plans so there’s no point of clogging up the books and long jamming our roster with them. I love those guys and respect and appreciate what they did for us but they could bring in a Bosh, Joe Johnson, etc… and that’s the only value i see in them today.
facepalm
it just. doesn’t. work that way.
by Mike Payne on Jan 5, 2010 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Someone needs to write a post on our 2011 summer options if:
1) We trade Rip and Tay for a big expiring deal;
2) We sit tight and use the MLE and biannual exceptions;
in the context of a shrinking salary cap, including how a large cap hold (like McGrady’s) would affect the available money to go after Free Agents.
Without taking all the time to do that, suffice it to say the following: If we move Rip+Tay for a McGrady-like contract, we will end up with roughly the same amount of cash to go after a FA as if we sit tight. The numbers aren’t exact, but they’re close.
*If we move Rip and Tay for expiring, we likely won’t have enough money to get even one player of equal caliber to replace them, let alone two. *
You put a space after the period, that's why
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bold :)
Maybe we could have a FAQ fanpost with all the stuff that will never happen.
The first thing on the list would be Jod finding a way to trade Rip for an expiring contract. That shit just ain’t gonna happen.
by Gabe F-B on Jan 5, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I thought about it
But ultimately, that would take a lot of time … Maybe if tonight’s game is a blowout.
wait ok, i think i figured it out
i dont think we would have a cap hold with tmac as long as we renounced him in the off season. from my understanding of capholds, it seems that you only have a cap hold until the players signs with another team, signs with the same team, or is renounced. therefore if we were to trade for t-mac we would have no cap hold as long as we renounced him. thats what i gleaned from larry coons salary cap faq. if you want to see what im talking about its here,
facepalm indeed...
Hoops Hype is your friend. While Houston could use Rip and probably does want him, they can’t make the deal work without taking on Prince’s salary. They don’t need, and probably don’t want Prince. Not with Ariza, Battier, and Budinger anyway. We could get there by including Maxiell, Kwame, and a throw in contract (Bynum or Atkins). Why does Houston make that deal? They don’t, Darryl Morey is too smart.
That said, I’m not sure either deal makes sense from the Pistons perspective. It completely obliterates our backcourt depth and lands us solidly in the lottery where we can either (a) begin to replenish the backcourt depth, or (b) address the bigger problem on the roster and get a scoring big who can rebound. But we can’t do both and will – barring a JoeD 2nd round miracle – go into next season with a similarly sized hole in the roster that we have now.
by Other Matt on Jan 5, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
html fail
http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm
Try that.
yeah this tmac stuff doesnt really make any sense,
so we trade rip and tayshaun for cap space and then next year we have (for the sake of arguement) 23 million or whatever to go get some free agents. so then with 23 million dollars we have to replace rip and tayshaun plus get a center. say what you want about rip being redundant or jj or daye being able to step up and take over for tay(which they cant, not yet at least) but thats a lot of production to try and fill in with whatever fa’s you get. you wont be able to replace them plus get a big for 23 million.
also, if we were to trade for tmac then would we still be eligible for the MLE? i thought that was only available if you were over the cap.
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