Jefferson on the Block?
by Mike Payne on Jan 8, 2010 10:59 PM EST
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ESPN Insider has noted that Al Jefferson may be on the trading block in Minnesota. While no outside sources confirm this, ESPN said, "there's word Al Jefferson may be on the trading block, as there are questions about where he fits into new coach Kurt Rambis' triangle offense and with fellow big-man Kevin Love."
Obviously, there are few if any players in the league that could instantly solve Detroit's roster problems like Jefferson could. What could Detroit do to potentially bring Big Al to the Pistons?
Detroit Sends:
Minnesota Sends:
- Al Jefferson
- Ramon Sessions
The trade works financially, and both teams would benefit from such a transaction. If Minnesota is truly concerned about the duality of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, they could use Big Al to bring in help in their most needed areas-- the 2 and 3 wing positions. Johnny Flynn is not quite ready to take over the point for Minny, and while Stuckey is not remotely a pass-first point guard, he can help Flynn while playing off the ball at the 2 (we all remember how well Stuckey played next to Atkins for that stretch of wins last month). Furthermore, Stuckey at the 2 works in Minny as Flynn is a capable three-point thread, but not as skilled at driving to the basket.
Beyond that, Minneapolis needs a veteran, glue-guy defender who can step in and captain their team. While Prince would not be an immediate captain, he brings everything Minny would need in that regard. Veteran leadership, staunch defense (better suited to the WC anyway) and wing play that would immediately improve their roster.
Where would this put Corey Brewer? He'd likely stick at the SF as a starter, with Prince as a super-sub sixth man, but Rambis could swap that around if need be.
Kwame Brown is thrown in as an expiring contract to give Minny even more money to play with this season and next.
Obviously, Detroit gets the stud, scoring low-post threat it needs at the 5. Next to Hamilton and Gordon, the Pistons would get one of the league's most under-rated pass-first point guards in Ramon Sessions.
Sure, it could very well be nothing more than a rumor that Minneapolis is putting Jefferson on the block. Funny enough, however, Detroit is overloaded in the positions where the Wolves are thin. Should Minny be looking to Tango, Detroit may be the perfect dance partner.
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And maybe Laimbeer can facilitate the trade!
Detroit Bad Boys- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
by Packey on Jan 9, 2010 5:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This would actually be pretty reasonable
Helps the T-Wolves where they’re weak (SG, SF) and gives us a great post scorer and an incredibly underrated PG in Sessions — a player that Minny hasn’t had much use for. Lineups would look good. The only problem is, who would they start at Center? Ryan Hollins? Kwame?
Jonas Jerebko - the Tiger Woods of Swedish Basketball
RE: Center
To be honest, I could see Minnesota doing this and then having no idea what center they’ll use. This team DID draft two point guards in a row.
I’d love for this to happen though.
by Biz Markie Moon on Jan 9, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
This trade
likely wouldn’t happen until after this season. If it were to happen this year, it’s likely that we’d have to include our draft pick, at the very least a second rounder. If Minny would agree to Stuckey, Prince, Wilcox and our first rounder for Jefferson, Sessions and a 2nd rounder, I’d still go for it— only because Jefferson and Sessions are proven talents, and Joe’s draft record leaves plenty to be desired. It’d be very difficult to get a Jefferson-level talent out of this year’s draft that is ready to contribute right away.
oh yeah
and as Biz Markie Moon pointed out, that way Minny could draft two more point guards in the top 10 again :)
Yup
I don’t care who/what they want. As long as we get a productive PG and PF/C out of it, then we gotta do it.
Another way this makes sense
I think Tayshaun could be a killer point forward. Basically, your lineup would be Flynn/Stuck/Tay/Kevin Love/Kwame OR if draftexpress is to be believed, draft Derrick Favors with the second pick. I think that would be a solid team, but then again, I’m no expert.
by Biz Markie Moon on Jan 10, 2010 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
I like Jefferson, but honestly?
A big man who operates strictly in the low post should NOT have a career TS% of .535. I think Jefferson might be the next Zach Randolph (which I find applying less and less due to his somewhat inspired play in Memphis). A hollow 20-10 with questionable defense.
Now, I still do this deal because Prince is easily replaced by Jerebko, Stuckey is the least efficient of our four guards (at least for their careers), and I like Sessions.
I wouldn’t under any circumstances move our first as well.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 10, 2010 12:52 AM EST reply actions
But not far off.
19.6 PER, .523 TS%
vs.
20.4 PER, .535 TS%
And this season?
.561 TS% and 22.7 PER
vs.
.514 TS% and 19.1 PER
I’ll give Jefferson some slack for his injury from last year. It was pretty severe. But he does definitely give me a Z-Bo feel. Assist-to-turnover ratio of less than 1. Don’t get to the line much for big men. Jefferson has the nicer contract, that’s for sure. And he’s an upgrade in our frontline, while not losing much on the wings. Hence why I do it.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 10, 2010 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
those are some scary
straight up Antonio McDyess numbers.
Dude will rebound. He’s coming off an injury and playing a bit out of his comfort range due 1) to the triangle offense he’s admitted he’s not comfortable with and 2) forcing his game to share his primary position with Kevin Love.
The fact that there's a rumor about Jefferson getting dealt...
Should raise a few red flags.
I mean, think about it:
20-10 big.
Reasonable contract.
25 years old.
You wouldn’t think that would be on the market, would you? Even in rumors, this guy was the key piece in the Kevin Garnett deal. He shouldn’t be mentioned in any trade, should he?
Just kind of rubs me the wrong way.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 10, 2010 1:06 AM EST reply actions
Not a reasonable contract
15 million on 2013 for a guy who’s only played one complete NBA season isn’t reasonable.
by brgulker on Jan 11, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes. You kind of have to lowball a guy with such a history of injuries.
He’s a stronger candidate than say Elton Brand, but the possibility that you are overpaying a guy based on his pre-injury potential is very real and a bad idea.
‘Dyess was written off by the league and consequently devoted some very good years to Dumars because off this, but Antonio also worked himself into a different kind of player, some guys can’t achieve that.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Your equation
Is missing its greatest variable— Kevin Love. The duplicity of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson cause some serious roster concerns for Minnesota. Who gets the lions share of the minutes at their natural position, and who gets pushed out of position?
Kevin Love is proving to be a one-of-a-kind PF, a player who could be 150% of Brad Miller in his prime (not compared by race, but by production). IMO, Al Jefferson remains the better talent, and will remain so historically, but Minnesota has a cheaper opportunity in Kevin Love that will mature when the rest of their roster does.
And that's the thing.
Kevin Love is really outproducing Al Jefferson at this point.
Jefferson is actually producing a bit better at C than PF, so I don’t know if he’s truly THAT out of position. He’s not a natural C, but then again a lot of teams have show the ability to win with a PF starting at C. Lack of true C’s in the league makes it this way.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 10, 2010 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
Hence why I use terms like.
Red Flag, rubs me the wrong way, or Z-Bo feel. I’m not outright stating anything, just that the whole situation is very odd.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 10, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
only if we trade hamilton
we need stuckey get rid of hamilton already he is about done and is making to much.
Hmm...
On the one hand, he’s a significant upgrade over what we have. He scores inside, so that gives us the interior scoring we’ve all been craving. And he rebounds.
OTOH, he’s owed a lot of money, and he’s on the books through 2013. 12 million this year ascending to 15 million by 2012-13. Trading for him and his contract makes him your franchise C by default.
He’s also not a very high efficiency guy, as others have noted, and he’s not a shot blocker.
Plus, the only contract we get out of is Tay’s, which we’ll get out of soon enough anyway. Also, we lose the ability to S&T Rodney, which TBH, might be the best thing we could do with him.
Combine big contract (which would be the biggest on the team by quite a bit) + low efficiency, high total scorer + good rebounder + not a shot blocker + injuries in the past, I’d be hesitant to make this move, although not dead set against it.
I totally missed the Sessions part of this deal
That’s a huge variable in this equation.
If we can turn Stuckey into Sessions, then it’s almost worth taking Al’s contract just for that reason.
Sessions has struggled in Minny, but he was brilliant for Mil. last season.
I’m still hesitant about Al’s contract, but I do really like Sessions.
How many perennial 20-10 bigs are earning less than Al Jefferson?
While he’s not yet back at 20-10 this season, even 18 and 9 is impossible to find for less than his price (beyond a rookie contract, naturally). If we ever hope to get that kind of production out of our center (or even PF), it’ll come at a premium in this price range or greater (with much emphasis on the “greater” part).
I agree with MFTL and you as well that Jefferson is not efficient on offense— a career 50.2% that didn’t scale well when given a big increase in attempts. However, there are two under-the-radar stats about Jefferson’s efficiency that caught my attention. Given his number of shot attempts, he turns the ball over only 1.8 times per game (11.7% TO/FGA this year, 9.2% TO/FGA last year). Compare that to a player of his production with a similar number of attempts:
Amare Stoudamire: 20% TO/FGA
Carlos Boozer: 18.75% TO/FGA
David Lee: 17.4% TO/FGA
Al Jefferson: 11.7% TO/FGA
Point being, Jefferson may not score as efficiently as players like these, but he’s a great ball handler for a guy with so many shot attempts per game.
Second, he averaged 2.8 PF’s per game last year, 2.7 this year (compared to nearly 4 a game for Amare and Carlos). For players of his production level, only Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol fouled less. Scoring bigs who get into easy foul trouble can damn a team, especially in the playoffs. Jefferson’s ability to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court are big pluses, especially in contrast to similar players.
As for shot blocking, I don’t see how 1.7 blocks per game last year could lead anyone to think he’s “not a shot blocker”. For reference, he tallied more blocks per game last year than Josh Smith, Tim Duncan, Emeka Okafor, Chris Kaman, Ben Wallace, Joakim Noah, Shaq, etc. His numbers are down this year, but for a player another year out from his peak I think its safe to assume he’ll get back to 1.5/game across the next few seasons.
I agree with the knocks on Jefferson that he’s not a very high efficiency guy, but in short, his earnings are easily warranted by value, and there is a lot more about this guy than just scoring and rebounding.
note that
the only anomalies to “impossible to find for less than this price” are David Lee and David West. Neither of which are “perennial 20/10 guys” like Jefferson, and David Lee will likely fetch a price not far from Al Jefferson’s contract this summer.
Good points
I didn’t even look at his turnover rates. Impressive work on your part bringing that to light. That does make a significant difference … Turnovers are part of efficiency.
Fouls are something I don’t think enough about, probably because we haven’t had a lot of big men foul issues (save Amir) in the past handful of years. Again, really good point.
Re: shot blocking —
I’ve got his career numbers at 1.2 / game, 1.5 / 36.
If we take the one full season he was healthy (07-08), he was at 1.5 and averaging 36 minutes per. That’s good.
I think when I talk about shotblocking, though, I’m envisioning DPOY Ben Wallace as the standard, which isn’t fair to the other players we consider. So, when compared to Ben Wallace in his prime, Al simply doesn’t (with respect to shot blocking). So again, fair point on your part.
What about the amount of games he’s played? Was he injured early in his career as well?
Understood
re: shot blocking. He’s definitely not a stand out blocker, especially on a career average. Should he be paired with Villanueva in the frontcourt (gets scared thinking about defense), I don’t think we’d see a very different result in shot blocking totals than we had seen with Rasheed and Dyess starting our frontcourt, perhaps even more.
here's my head-to-head take on Stuckey vs. Sessions
(also, I LOVE the SB Nation search engine on this site)
wow...
I never noticed the search bar. Useful feature indeed.
My Music: Now on last.fm!!
My Blog: Inside A Head
Mobility
Has anyone watched him play this season?
I haven’t seen him, and I’m curious how he’s moving after the injury. I also wonder about it, given that we may be moving to a more up-tempo style…
He's on my fantasy team
If his numbers are any indication of his mobility we shouldn’t have to worry much. He’s a beast on the boards.
This would be a great move for the Pistons
It would be horrible to lose Tayshaun, a leader and professional who plays his heart out. Tay deserves to have his name and number hanging in the Palace rafters someday. But Dumars has made the Pistons roster so unbalanced that either Tay or Rip likely will have to be traded to restore some kind of order to it. (It’d be much better to trade Gordon than either of them, but Gordon probably has one of the ten most untradeable contracts in the NBA.) Losing Tay or Rip is the consequence of the bad signings that followed the failed Chauncey trade.
Jefferson seems to be a good guy, another natural leader. He’s a statistical machine even coming off his surgery, from which he almost certainly will keep improving as the season wears on. The Pistons’ doctors would be able to evaluate him to make sure everything is good with the knee before any trade went through.
Combining this trade with a high lottery pick (assuming the pick is properly used for once) would go a long way toward making the Pistons relevant again.
Gordon probably has one of the ten most untradeable contracts in the NBA.
True that. Good thing Rip’s on an expiring deal though.
Oh wait. No he’s not, because Jod re-upped it after trading Billups away for cap space.
Ten Most Untradeable Contracts in no order.
Elton Brand
Eddy Curry
Corey Maggette
Rashard Lewis
Stephen Jackson (who was actually traded for, but the Bobcats are idiots)
Baron Davis
Gilbert Arenas (but not for long)
Jose Calderon
Luol Deng
Richard Hamilton
These guys are very difficult to move.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jan 11, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
not at all impossible
This is old news— and while Kahn insists Jefferson is not available, he did just offer him for Granger. Second, Kahn said “I have no intention of trading any of our core players this season.” That means a trade could happen as early as June— and it actually makes this more likely since Tay and Stuck will be closer to expiring.
I couldn’t help but wonder if that statement was PR spin or truth …
Speaking in definintes stinks of PR spin, though.
reading comprehension fail
Start Sessions. MFWB is the perfect backup PG and a good change of pace from Sessions.
Midseason Trade
I’ve heard chat on here about how Joe D making any mid-season trades would be foolish (why improve so we get a worse lottery pick this draft). In general, I agree. However, this trade would is an exception. At the end of the day, we’d get a true 7footer, so CV’s tendency to float would be more excusable. AND… We’d still have Hamilton to unload. Who knows, maybe Rip could get us a lottery pick in return?
Agreed
This is one of the few trades I like, its just not gonna happen. Then again: 3 PGs.
by Biz Markie Moon on Jan 12, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
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