How Long Does It Take To Rebuild A Contender?
by Quick Darshan on Feb 21, 2010 5:39 PM EST
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PrintThe Lakers lost in the Finals to Detroit in 2004 before blowing up their dynasty by trading Shaq for Lamar Odom, Caron Butler and Brian Grant's hideous contract. They didn't return to contention until 2008 when they lost to the Celtics. Along the way, they had many misfires (Rudy T., Smush Parker, Brian Cook, etc.) before their much maligned GM's few smart moves (holding onto Andrew Bynum, accepting the gift of Pau Gasol) paid off.
This is the quickest turnaround that I can think of. The Spurs are still in the midst of their remarkable run. The Celtics mired through over a decade of futility. The Cavs and Magic are contenders for the first time in a while. I can't remember if the Nuggets were ever a legit contender. If you put Utah on the list, it's been a long time since the days of Stockton and Malone.
Other contenders from early in the decade have fallen on hard times. Nets, Sixers, anyone?
The Heat are in the midst of what could be a quick rebuild. They won the title in 2006 so you can say they were still a contender in 2007. If they score in free agency this off-season, they could be contenders in 2011. A four season turnaround.
The Pistons were last a contender in 2008. So, the question is: Is it fair to expect to compete until at least the '11-'12 season, two years away?
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The heat, the lakers and the spurs
all have a superstar, something the Pistons don’t have to build around. I’m working on an article right now I’ll be publishing tomorrow morning, which will provide some context. We’re on pace for the worst record since 1993-94. It took us 10 years to get back to a championship. Sadly, at present, there is no conclusive evidence to improvement. Our only hope at present is with lottery balls. We’re not players in the free agent market, nor do we have any significantly valuable trade pieces. We’re in a bad way right now, and our only insight into the vision of Joe Dumars comes from Keith Langlois.
I’d love to see some evidence of direction, and opportunities beyond lottery balls, but it’s tough to see anything conclusive as of yet. When the heat, lakers and spurs were down, they still had superstars.
Aminu, here we come!!11
I couldn’t have said it better. I agree 100%
Not only has Joe constructed a disaster of a roster, he’s left himself without any viable trade or FA opportunities.
It’s either going to take a Pao/KG trade or 2-3 years of good luck in the draft. Those are the options.
What would happened a team purposefully tanked 2 or 3 years in a row to get really good draft picks each time? Can you even do that? Off the top of my head, I think the Grizzlies have had a series of top 10 (maybe even top 5?) picks over the last decade but they still didn’t build a contender and are just finding their stride (after some awkward moves) now. I hope the Pistons can get it done with one solid draft pick and improvement from the young guys and it doesn’t take a decade.
A lot of that depends on CV and Stuckey
Stuckey goes without saying. However I’m really getting fed up with Joe’s infatuation of 5 year contracts. It was a huge mistake to give one to Nazr Mohammad and its looking like a big mistake to give one to Charlie. His contract could become a major nuisance under the new CBA if he continues performing at his abysmal level. Gordon is showing his worth tonight, he’s a legitimate 6th man. Albiet well overpaid (he should have been signed at $8 mil per), but teams would still be willing to have a guy like him. Just look at Jamal Crawford, I would say Gordon is a better player with a similar contract.
I’m not sure he’d be able to dupe Charlotte into taking him off our hands with LB in town. Chris Wallace has a good team on his hands, so if his new found brilliance is legit, he wouldn’t take CV. The Nets will probably have much better management once the new owner takes power. Perhaps Boston would be willing to trade an expiring contract for him? They would need a replacement PF once KG’s knee melts away. My biggest hope is that LB can be extremely stubborn sometimes about getting random players, so he might think he can “fix” CV.
by bearded thundar on Feb 21, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
memphis and okc
are good examples of what happen when a team successively tanks. Minnesota, and to some extent Indiana and Golden State are examples of how it can go badly. Golden State will get another high pick this year, and if they can fix their management/coaching issues, they may go the way of Memphis.
Aminu, here we come!!11
GS
will never fix their management issues lol. I think that will always be a given with them. Especially as long as our favorite clown, Nellie, still has a job.
Stephen Curry is the best player on that team. He’s a much more well rounded player than Monta will ever be. If I’m GS, I’d put Ellis in a 6th man role and tell him here’s the ball, fuck if I care what you do with it, just go wild. They need a SG with a legitimate NBA body (please no Summers jokes), otherwise they’ll always have a porous backcourt defensively.
Also I’m not sure why Beidrins seems to have fallen out of favor with management. If I’m Noe Dealmars, I’d trade CV and a pick for him in a heartbeat. Randolph hasn’t really lived up to expectations, in the limited times he got consistent minutes, he didn’t perform up to expectations offensively, which is disappointing considering who he’s playing under.
by bearded thundar on Feb 22, 2010 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
Wrong on Randolph.
Don’t know what you could possibly expect more from a 2nd year kid who is barely 21 than 19/11/2.5 per 36 minutes. It’s not his fault Nellie hates him and won’t consistently give him 30-35 mpg. Hell, even when Beidrins AND Turiaf were out, Nellie started Mikki Fucking Moore over Randolph. MIKKI MOORE.
I had Randolph on my fantasy team and he was a stud EVERY single time he got the minutes. Literally, minutes = studliness. Like clockwork. The kid’s is KG 2.0 just waiting to happen. I hoped and prayed that they would’ve sent him elsewhere over the All-Star break. As it is, Nellie clearly doesn’t like his game— maybe he can be had this offseason for a prospect and an expiring (Kwame + Daye) ?
Kwame won't be undercontract
He expires this year; it’s the same thing with Sheed last year.
I do know this much about Randolph, the talent is there. He dominated the summer league, including having a 40 point game. I’m more concerned with his size, he seems to be only slightly above Austin Daye, but not quite Channing Frye. There’s no way he can play center here with our uber slow pace, but PF is totally cool with me. Especially if we can somehow trade CV for him and a sound rounder (as lopsided as that is, CV would fit in Nellie’s jack-up bad shots system and GS has some of the dumbest management in history), I think that’s the kind of move Joe needs to make to be considered an elite GM again.
by bearded thundar on Feb 23, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Free Anthony Randolph
seriously, the dude has some major talent
Check out Detroit4Lyfe
by handsomerob1 on Feb 23, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Full Court Press (MLive)
Patrick Hayes did a pretty interesting post over there at some point this season that tracked the last 15 or so years of the lottery and teams that had been there multiple times.
For the life of me, I can’t find that article, but it would be very interesting in the context of this conversation.
I think we could still be conteding
In addition to MFMP’s opening comment in this thread, I’d probably argue that we could still be contending, had Joe done things differently, and we’d be in no worse shape financially than we are now.
Honestly, if instead of trading Chancey — our best player at the time — for a salary dump, I think we could have done things differently. Rip + Chauncey + Stuck + Spellcheck is a very effective backcourt. Tay + JJ covers the 3 spot. The question would have been what to do at the 4 and 5.
IMO, there had to be suitors for Sheed’s expiring contract. Had to be. There was so little buzz about it in the media, that I tend to believe that Jod never shopped it. Move Sheed for a young piece or two and a pick or two, use the MLE to sign a Center, and we’re still competing with the best in the EC.
Not favorites, sure, but certainly no worse off than we are now financially, and a lot more fun to watch, because we’d still be winning.
Being an Angeleno
Thinks looked bad for the Lakers before the season they went back to the Finals. Kupchak was widely considered the dumbest GM in the history of basketball. They had way more bad contracts than the Pistons do. Granted they had Kobe and a willingness to go into luxury tax land, but the point is: mistakes can be rectified. One good decision can wipe out a bunch of bad ones. Now, Kupchak and Ainge are considered geniuses.
and that makes LA different from any _other_ team with a superstar
They have a superstar and they’re willing to go over the lux tax line. That is a colossal advantage for rebuilding.
Aminu, here we come!!11
Not true
Cleveland, Orlando, Dallas and Boston are well above the luxury tax lines and they all have superstars (Boston is debatable now, but no 2 years ago).
It does give them a colossal advantage, especially over cities like Detroit or Memphis, but it does not make them unique.
by bearded thundar on Feb 22, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
maybe I wasn't clear
I’m saying that in the context of rebuilding— the topic of this post. Note my first comment. I mentioned that the heat, spurs and lakers, teams that fell and bounced back, have a better chance of rebuilding because they have a superstar on their roster. Of those teams, LA has no problem going far over the lux line to build around their superstar.
LA: $91,377,313
SA: $78,899,266
MIA: $73,395,260
Aminu, here we come!!11
In the context of recent rebuilding, then yes, LA is far beyond everyone else.
However Dallas isn’t very far behind at $89 mil, and Boston rests at $85 mil and they both went from perennial suck to contenders.
http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm
In all honesty, the Pistons just happen to be one of the stingiest teams in the league, which is why it seems that LA has such an unfair advantage. We’re only $2 mil higher than the Nets.
by bearded thundar on Feb 22, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
not ever
Ainge and Kupchak got lucky with gift-horse trades, and they didn’t look them in the mouth. Instant Karma. This type of surprise rise to the top is also known as “You’re Cheating!” when you pull that crap in a sports video game’s franchise mode. The CPU won’t even allow you to do deals like that … the other CPU GM rejects them.
Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun.
Shot themselves in the foot...
By wasting money on inadequate free agents last year. the bad signings of Gordon and CV cost them for this year’s free agent class. Should of seen this coming! Would of rather not had these two, sucked this year, get a better lottery pick, and then go after 2 top free agents. How would a lineup of Wall, RIP, Prince, Bosh, and Stoudamire look!!!
Right
You expect Joe to go out and sign Bosh and Amare with $12 mil in cap space.
I believe we had around $40 mil in guaranteed salary, and the cap is projected to fall below $53 mil. There’s just no way you can sign a single max contract player with that, let alone two. Joe did the right thing by spending the money; the problem is that he spent it on the wrong people (going well above market value).
by bearded thundar on Feb 22, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Am I the only one?
Am I crazy for thinking that we are not in completely dire straits as a franchise? Anybody who thinks that RIP and Tay do not have value have not watched either of them play. They have been playing very well of late and (unfortunately) have been our best players offensively by a mile. A team that wants to make a push for being true contenders could easily be willing to pick up RIP’s contract, as he is still a very good scorer. Gordon has been playing horribly of late, but there is a reason that we signed the guy and that is because he is a great shooter when he is playing well. CV has been disappointing, but I don’t think that it is fair to really assess the team that we have based off of this season. Clearly it has been a miserable year, but we still have assets. We are not going to be competing for a couple years, but we are going to have a top 7 (hopefully higher) pick in a year that seems to be deep on talent. Anyone who thinks that we were going to go out and sign Bosh this coming summer does not know what they are talking about.
This year has been miserable nobody will argue that, but it does not mean that we don’t have good players. We have been killed by injuries and our best big man is 35 and the worst scorer in the history of the game. We have some very good young players and some pieces that could be moved for some other options.
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