Morning Shootaround: It's Development, Stupid
by Matt Watson on Feb 4, 2010 6:00 AM EST
in Morning Shootaround
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Print• Despite the positive vibes coming out of Tuesday's win (a three-guard lineup that doesn't feature Chucky Atkins? Outstanding!), dreams of playoff berths have long been supplanted by those of lottery picks.
Unfortunately, even if the Pistons end up with a high pick, there's still a sense of dread among fans that Joe Dumars will try to outsmart everybody by taking the less obvious (and ultimately less talented) pick. But is the criticism warranted? Maybe, maybe not. But as MLive's Patrick Hayes points out, picking the right the players isn't so much a problem as actually developing the ones that are here:
The bigger question to me has not been Dumars' draft picks -- debating the high profile fails is pointless, high profile picks fail every year -- it's been the seeming lack of a system that allows picks to thrive.
[Carlos] Delfino, [Amir] Johnson and [Arron] Afflalo were dealt in similar deals -- clear a bit of cap space, get a future aspect like a second rounder back in return. All of those deals suggested the Pistons didn't think those players would materialize into much on the court. Why is that? Some of that has to relate to feedback the coaches are giving, right? What has broken down that has allowed the Pistons to trade guys who have become valuable NBA players for not much in return?
The same can be said for Milicic: after three seasons of sink-or-swim at the end of the bench, he was tossed aside for cap space and a future pick. Would Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Carmelo Anthony be the players they are today if they were drafted by the Pistons? I'm not so sure. Eventually talent trumps everything, but would they already be MVP and scoring champ candidates or just hitting their stride?
This goes back all the way to Prince's rookie year -- largely ignored as a rookie, he was only given a chance as a last resort when the Pistons were on the brink of elimination. Dating back to the early part of this decade, the only rookie I can recall the Pistons made a concerted effort to develop is Stuckey, and even that was likely a matter of timing than anything since his arrival coincided with the team's core looking old and broke in the playoffs.
Fortunately, if you want to call it that, the Pistons have lowered expectations so much that it should be near impossible to keep next year's rookies off the court. But still, I can't help but shake a sneaking suspicion that as good as Wall/Cousins/Favors/whomever ends up looking in a Detroit uniform, a guy like DaJuan Summers will be moved for a ball rack and a case of Gatorade only to someday burn the Pistons for 30 points. But I digress -- more links!
• Matchups, injuries and the phase of the moon will likely dictate the big man rotation, but for the time being, Jonas Jerebko has secured a starting spot.
• Apropos of nothing, this ESPN.com article from 2006 predicting what the NBA will be like in 2010 is incredibly amusing. Three of six "experts" thought Adam Morrison would be the next big superstar, which looks silly until you see the last guy picked Joel Freeman. Who? Exactly.
• Chauncey Billups is an All-Star.
• Isiah Thomas is apparently candidate for DePaul's coaching job.
• Last but not least, while the Pistons may or may not have their own issues, schaudenfreude is kind of awesome sometimes: Rajon Rondo complains that Boston's locker room is falling apart:
"We are getting bored with it some," he said, "but I think it’s a little bit of different agendas maybe creeping in. It just all depends. You know, I think if we all had the right spirit as far as one goal, one thing in common, I think we’d be a lot better."
[...] "It’s a different team this year," Rondo said then. "That’s our problem. A couple of years ago, we didn’t have the same team. We had the same main guys, but it’s still a team effort, from the first guy to the 15th guy."
(OK, fine, everyone was backtracking after Wednesday's win, but still -- the roster is showing cracks.)
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Re; Failing to develop picks
IMO, we’ve been a victim of our own success. Year after year, the pressure was on winning a championship, and the pressure to fight for playoff positioning ultimately outweighs developing young players.
This is the first time in nearly a decade that the priority has been on player and team development, not posturing for playoff position.
Obviously, if we land a top-5 pick, that point is underscored even more — figure out who the core guys are first, let them develop together second, and then winning (which is hopefully a natural outgrowth of 1 and 2) third.
Valuable players?
Maybe there’s something to the “not developing draft picks” idea, but I think it’s overstated. Convince me Delfino is a valuable player. Also, he got a good amount of playing time in Detroit; he was Tay’s main backup for a couple of years. And while Amir Johnson may someday become a valuable player, he isn’t one yet, I’m not sure he will be, and I’m not sure that’s for lack of coaching or minutes in Detroit. And Darko? You really want to use Darko as an example of someone whom we never gave him a chance?
Now, Afflalo is a different case. He DID show a ton potential, although arguably that was more in attitude, work ethic, and hustle than in actual stats. Still, I think we all agree it was dumb to lose him for essentially nothing.
Beyond the rookie issue, we’ve just had a crappy bench beginning in 2005. Besides Afflalo and McDyess (a sometimes bench player, sometimes starter), is there anyone who has been a bench player for Detroit in the years after the championship, has any former Piston bench player had a particularly impressive career? I know Jarvis Hayes, Carlos Delfino, Flip Murray, and even Amir have had a decent game or two, but would you want any of these guys (or Carlos Arroyo, or Darvin Ham, etc.) on the team now? And if not, is it really lack of development by Detroit?
Yes, after the 2004 ‘ship, Detroit relied a lot on its starters and didn’t give the rookies a ton of minutes, but when they played, they generally sucked — and not in that, “yeah but you can see a lot of potential kind of way.” I know Larry B. hates rookies, but I don’t recall a lot of games in which they gave him contrary evidence. Same for Flip.
Actually (and frustratingly), Amir is contributing pretty well for the Raptors this season. He’s a hustle machine, seems to stay out of foul trouble, and is averaging almost 5 point and 5 boards but he seems to get more than that every time I see them play. The fans LOVE him.
But I agree with Matt — sometimes I wonder if Carmelo would have been stunted had we drafted him at number 2 instead of Darko. It seems so easy for other teams to throw their rookies in the game and have them be successful and it doesn’t seem to be something we can emulate for whatever reason, no matter who is on our coaching staff.
by garrettelliott on Feb 4, 2010 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
Delfino has been solid for Milwaukee.
In around 25mpg, he’s putting up 10/5/2.5. He hits the open 3, plays defense on opposing teams’ best perimeter guys, and occasionally lifts off for the white guy super dunk. To say he’s not a valuable player, when we employ such fuckheads as Chris Wilcox, Chucky Atkins, and Kwame Brown, smells like a “pot/kettle” situation to me.
Compared to those three, maybe, but
Delfino is basically doing what his career stats say he would do in more minutes. For his career, he’s averaged 18.6 minutes, scoring 6.4 points and getting 3.3. rebounds. This year, he’s averaged 27.4 minutes, scoring 10.0 points and getting 5.0 rebounds. So, getting 50% more minutes gets almost exactly 50% more points and 50% more rebounds. Also, his shooting percentage this year is a pretty unimpressive .410, basically the same as his career .402.
So in short, he’s not terrible, but he’s not all that good, and I’m still not sure where this “but we failed to develop him” comes from.
As to Amir, the jury is still out (as I said), but 5-5 is not exactly world-beating. And he is still fouling: 3.2 per game, in an average of 17.1 minutes. That’s on pace to foul out in just over 30 minutes of PT (compare Jason Maxiel, who averages 2.1 fouls in 17.5 minutes of PT this year).
Again, I don’t hate either of these guys, and indeed I wish them well. Amir does have an upside. And I know Detroit relied a lot on its starters. But I don’t really see the “oh man, if we had just developed them more competently, they would have been so much better” argument.
My problem with Jod’s moves the last couple years isn’t that he’s tossed aside hidden gems, it’s that he’s almost completely ignored the relative value of different assets.
Stuff like, what is more valuable: Amir on a $3.7m expiring deal, or Wilcox on a 2 year, $6m deal?
Or why Spellcheck gets tossed aside for a roster spot that is filled by Deron Washington, who is then cut after a chunk of his salary becomes guaranteed… and don’t say, “we needed Chucky,” because the point has always been we could have had both, with absolutely no penalty.
It’s the mix of highly questionable huge money signings, and under-the-radar head-scratchers, which has badly damaged my faith in Jod. Amir as a player isn’t going to be the difference between winning or losing a championship. But as an okay young PF with an expiring contract, you don’t just throw him in the trash when it turns out he’s not going to be a star.
The problem is that lot of those guys wanted out.
Darko, Amir, and Delfino all asked for trades (or at least their agents did). The problem was that Dumars obliged then and sent them to places where they’d get more consistent playing time. I don’t believe Afflalo asked for a trade, but I do remember an interview where Dumars commented on how there was no room for Afflalo and he tried to help him out.
It also doesn’t help that Dumars was under strict “No luxury tax” orders for Davidson, meaning he had to find ways to save salary at all costs. No necessarily true of Amir/Afflalo, but definitely true of some of the earlier moves. If you’re not allowed to go over the luxury tax, you can’t retain your assets as easily.
It also doesn’t help that Dumars never goes into a season with a full roster. He always wants an open roster spot.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Word up.
Where you been man.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
Mass Effect 2
aka
BioWare’s gift to mankind.
It’s the greatest Sci-Fi related media since the Empire Strikes Back.
I’m not done with it yet so you’re probably not going to see a lot of me for a while, especially if I start a second playthrough. And by the time I’m done, or close to it, Ace Attorney Investigations comes out, and not long after that, Final Fantasy XIII. Also, I left Michigan Tech and am considering my options for the future, so this site hasn’t been at the top of priorities (though video games probably shouldn’t be up there, either >_>).
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Wowzers. That's a lofty claim.
Star Trek: TNG was pretty great.
But I’m glad you fell in love with Mass Effect 2.
Good to see you back up in this bitch.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
Word.
(although I DO have much love for Episode IV)
by garrettelliott on Feb 4, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
I love me some SW, BG, and ST
But God damn, Mass Effect 2 is one of the most impressive games I’ve ever seen. Great visually, captivating characters and story, fun gameplay. I haven’t been this obsessed with a game since Knights of the Old Republic.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
KOTR = best SW-related media ever
And I actually enjoyed KOTR2 more than the first. That’s why I don’t understand Mass Effect— it’s good, and I loved the first one, but it’s clearly just a Star Wars game minus the official property. Just do it right— slap some Jedi shit on there, give the planets familiar names, and boom— greatest game I’ve ever played.
Not that I doubt ME2 isn’t incredible— I just have this particular personality defect where I think all video games would be improved if they were set in original trilogy Star Wars land. GTA: Star Wars? That’s a billion dollars in profit waiting to happen.
Ugh, KotOR2
So much wasted potential. It was an incomplete game when released.
I’d say ME and SW have significant differences. There’s a few similarities, but not enough to say it feels like Star Wars minus the official property.
Also, I don’t know if Star Wars GTA would work very well. Sandbox is becoming WAAAAAAAAAAY too prevalent in gaming, and only the truly unique ones are good.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
The Old Republic looks good.
I’m still waiting on a sequel to Jedi Academy. No game quite captured the frantic nature of lightsaber combat quite like JK:JA. The Force Unleashed comes close.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
agreed, loved Jedi Academy and Jedi Outcast, and very much looking forward to the new Force Unleashed.
fallout 3 rad, the level cap? not rad
i love fallout and oblivion. oblivion was the game which made me get a next gen system. i dropped like 200 hrs between that game and fallout. top shelf games
also mp, bioshock, while linear, may be the best the best example of a linear game using a killer story to deliver a great experience. i think the atmosphere in bioshock was unparalleled. rapture was a creepy place. looking forward to number two. play it to the end, its really spooky shit.
oblivion
could have been top 10 off all time, but it was extraordinarily flawed. the enemy leveling and economy thing killed it, but thank god i played it on PC (there are patches which remove the leveling system and give the game the balance it needs— without that, it’s not nearly as good). Also, they need to get more creative with their landscapes. So all the dungeons, ruins and forts look exactly the same? Boo. That aside, 9/10.
Outast on the original Xbox
is still the finest Jedi multiplayer that’s ever happened. And it wasn’t even online. Just you, your friends, split screen, and as many CPU controlled bots as you could handle. Nothing quite like force choking a guy, lifting him into the air and dropping him off a catwalk into the nothingness. Especially if it’s your friend.
Also, part of the reason why I'm not so upset about the Pistons' struggles.
Is because 2010 is going to be one of, if not THE best year for gaming. Hell, starting in November of last year, gaming has been sent awesome game after awesome game.
And I’ll willingly admit, I love the Pistons, but I love video games more. I spend way more time on Gamefaqs than I do here (sorry, guys). Hell, I stayed up until 3 AM because they were announcing what Project Needlemouse was (it’s Sonic the Hedgehog 4!!!) and spent the next 2 hours discussing it with fellow gamers.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Never got into Fallout
Maybe because I’m sick of the Post-Apoc setting for games (not that Sci-Fi is much more original).
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I waited about nine months
after Fallout 3 came out to buy it. I beat it pretty quickly, which is surprising as I hear a lot of complaints about how long it takes. Personally, I prefer fantasy RPGs, but hell— this game is easily one of the best I’ve played. You should absolutely give it a chance.
(note, however, I did not like Bioshock, even though I didn’t give it much of a chance. too linear for my blood…)
Not to mention the new Pokemon game.
by garrettelliott on Feb 4, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In Communist Russia...
Pokemon catch you!
by Birdman84 on Feb 5, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yea but look at what Curry did when he was an assistant, yes his goal was to work with the rookies and bench, but they showed potential then, and he said they’d get playing time when he was named head coach, well then explain why Amir still ended up in the doghouse then? The thing was JoeD was still having a wet dream with himself that this team stood a chance last year in the playoffs and didn’t wanna give guys a chance, he’s never wanted to give guys a chance. You can’t say Delfino didn’t show promise or got minutes, he got 10-16 minutes a night, and was averaging 5 & 3.
Detroit has not been a friendly place to rookies, hopefully this can change in the next couple of seasons otherwise this team is in even more trouble then we are right now.
by ice_for_dyess on Feb 4, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think TJ’s got a good point.
Delfino: playing decent, but not definitively any better than Jerebko is currently, and if all goes well, nowhere close to what Daye will eventually be.
Jarvis Hayes starts for the Nets.
Flip Murray: he is what he always was in Detroit, sometimes great, sometimes awful. I’ll take MFWB any day.
Amir: again, he is what he is, a hustle guy who will grab some boards, get a couple garbage buckets, and tease the fans into thinking he could be oh so much more.
Now, I think Joe could have gotten a lot more out of Amir + Afflalo, but that horse is so incredibly beaten at this point.
ESPN 2006 article
I loved David Thrope’s pick of Noah:
“NBA executives love to compare draftable players to current NBA players, but when special talents like Magic Johnson or Larry Bird hit the scene, they have no one to make a fair comparison with because of their unique talent level. Noah fits that description.”
“…his passing skills as a 7-footer rival Bill Walton’s and his feel is similar to Bird’s”
Thorpe also predicted Hakim Warrick to make the jump from mediocre to star.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=nba2010_breakout
But Thorpe gets better with another 2006 prediction of who will be the next great international player (after Dirk):
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=nba2010_international
He picks Darko.
And what's up with the london perspective?
That guy picks the worst homer choice every time. team on the rise? Craptors. Future star? Joel f’ing freeman. Break out player? Luol Dung. They might as well as gotten Langlois to pick everything pistons with that kind of objectivity.
by C$ on Feb 4, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Langlois
Off topic, but do you get fed up with reading his articles recently? I swear every article is, “Don’t worry we can still make the playoffs”. Really Langlois you wanna watch this team wallow in failure in the playoffs like last year!?!
by ice_for_dyess on Feb 4, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
What bothers me even more than that is that he seems to think we actually have a chance at making them.
What Pistons team have you been watching, Keith, because it’s not the same one I’ve been watching.
Don’t get me wrong I love most of his articles, he’s good at what he does. But like you said he seems to still think we have a chance at making it, if we just turn it around. I don’t care if we have been w/o our best players most of the season, 26 wins or w/e it is, is NOT gonna happen this late in the season. He just loves to force feed it down our throats though….
by ice_for_dyess on Feb 4, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Also, KG retains his douche status for stepping in over Rondo at that post-game interview.
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/02/04/kevin-garnett-wants-locker-room-issues-kept-private/
The fact that Rondo is balling out of his mind and KG isn’t maybe gives Rondo a little bit of clout to go public and say, “Hey, we’ve got issues. Everyone needs to get on the same page.”
He's a multiple time all-star, NBA champion, and All-NBA Douche.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
by Skylar on Feb 4, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
All-Decade Douche Team
C: Shaquille O’Neal
PF: Kevin Garnett
SF: LeBron James
SG: Kobe Bryant
PG: Jason Kidd
I'd replace Kobe with AI...
I like Kobe. I think he’s cool and is probably a fun guy to hang out with. Really.
AI is another solid option. I’m not sure if I’d want to hang out with Kobe, though. He’s pretty intelligent but so competitive.
I respect Kobe's game like WHOA
but he was a douche to his fellow Lakers for like a decade at least… that’s some serious locker room douchery
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
I know his niece and she's very nice
(True Story)
I disallow any knowledge of Antoine Walker being on any All-Decade team except for the All-Decade Nice Uncles
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
I also specialize in disavowing
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
I guess we both are the proud new owners of
“Awesome story, Bro”
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
It's not just developing rookies
I think it’s utilizing certain talents to their full potential. I just glanced at the box score from last nights Bobcats-Lakers game. Nazr burned Bynum and Gasol for 23 and 17?!!? Is Larry Brown just that good?
It was only one freak game
Nazr is a decent player, but he is incapable of doing that sort of thing consistently.
i think had we drafted wade or anthony that their talents would have put them into the starting line-up within weeks of the season opening
they are just so vastly superior to anything we had or have. look at how melo is playing with billups right now, that could have been the stones. even though he got off to a relatively slow start compared to lebron and wade, he still would be a clear upgrade over tay. i find it hard to believe that dwayne wade would lose playing time to rip hamilton over the course of a season. these guys would still be superstars had they been drafted by us, but they would have been our superstars.
then again, larry brown was a prick to rookies so who knows.
i hate thinking about this.
lb had a hard time playing wade and melo in the national team, so i’m not so sure he would’ve let them see too much floor time with the “best starting 5 in the nba” already in place. But i think over time they would’ve rose to the top.
by C$ on Feb 4, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
If it's an consolation, my judgement in draft picks is far worse than Jod's
2007, I wanted Jason Smith and Tiago Splitter, or trade our picks to move up and nab Acie Law
2008, I wanted Bill Walker
2009, I wanted BJ Mullens
How many of these guys are playing significant minutes?
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 4, 2010 4:33 PM EST reply actions
Bleacher report is a bit of rag, as it were
but intriguing all the same
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
Just Because....
Here’s a screen cap from the Blazers/Spurs game 10 seconds ago:
by garrettelliott on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Also: LaMarcus Aldridge can play a little.
by garrettelliott on Feb 5, 2010 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah he can.
Just part of my second favorite team right there.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
I would do this in a heartbeat if it had any truth at all.
Blockquoted paragraph As for the Chris Bosh rumors, those likely can be put to bed. Toronto is looking for more than Detroit can offer for the big man, unless they are willing to part with Ben Gordon.
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