So Who DO We Want, Anyways?
by garrettelliott on Feb 10, 2010 12:00 AM EST
Email
PrintAlright, I have to ask since this was bugging me in the other thread: who do you guys think is worth max money? Every post seems to be, “Nah, I don’t want Amare…” and, “Nah, Bosh sucks…” Teams would kill to have these guys. And teams who are 18-32 should definitely kill to have these guys. So who, besides LeBron, is actually on the want list?
Discuss, and let the knife fights.................BEGIN!
(and don't say Perkins, Boney)
FanPosts are user-created posts from the Detroit Bad Boys community and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of all fans or the staff at DBB. The DBB staff reserves the right at any time to edit the contents of FanPosts as they reasonably see fit.
101 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If there was no salary cap
Then players like Bosh and Amare might actually be worth the money they’d get out of a max contract. But due to the economics of the NBA, and the limited amount of money to play with, a player that earns an overloaded contract can hurt a team’s chances to develop. If the cap is $55 million and you spend $23 of that on one player, that player alone better singlehandedly carry your franchise, because you’ll need undervalued players to make up the difference in production-vs-salary.
Who is the perfect example of a franchise-carrying player who is absolutely worth the money provided by a max contract? Dwyane Wade. The team Miami has built around him is terrible, before AND after Beasley joined the squad. His performance last year alone was what separates superstars (worth a max contract) from your average all star (worth $15 tops). Before this season, Bosh had a hard time cracking the latter, even though he has never been capable of willing that team to a winning record.
More to come, just wanted to start with that little statement.
Completely agree.
I would want Amar’e or Bosh, but I wouldn’t want them at their asking price. And that’s the fundamental flaw in a lot of teams. They tie up franchise player money in non-franchise level players and then struggle to build around them.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
salary cap
well according to my sources Bosh only costs about 15.7 mil to own this season and I believe he has an option of 17.1 mil if he wants to take the raptors up on that.
at this price I really don’t see why you wouldn’t want him. He is one of the great dominant big men on the block on offense. Strong on the defensive end, very long and athletic as well.
and one thing I believe alot of people over look is the fact that in order for a smaller guard line up to work night in and night out you need big man to give the ball into down low and to keep the other teams honest on the pick and roll. One of the pistons largest problems is pick and roll offense. The other teams double the guard and we don’t have any big men that are really a threat off of a hard roll to the hoop. I was hoping CV31would fill this void but he has yet to prove himself consistently.
IMO, these players are worth their max or near-max contracts
Kobe Bryant $23M
Tim Duncan $22M
Dirk Nowitzki $20M
Pau Gasol $16.5M (near-max at best, surprisingly evenly-valued)
and these non-max players will be deserving of a max contract this summer:
Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
and the other players that are worth a max contract:
Chris Paul
Dwight Howard
Players on the cusp of a max contract, likely worth the $16.5M that Gasol earns:
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
and while I may have forgotten somebody, that’s pretty much it, in my opinion.
In this league, there's only about 10 players who deserve max contracts
And there’s like an additional 10 or so who get them. People are tightening their belt a bit, but the fact that Joe Johnson REJECTED a 4 year, $60 million deal means even he’s pulling for a near max contract.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
replying to myself here
The addition of Durant and Anthony doesn’t sit well with me. Durant is very likely going to be worth a near-max contract, but he alone isn’t dominant enough to earn the greatest resource in the NBA— wins. And Carmelo’s team is still pretty damn capable without him. If I’m going to include those guys as deserving of “near max” contracts, I should include Bosh too— but NOT Amare.
Still, Bosh plays in a position where his kind of production is rare, so he will get a contract worth more than his career-to-date production.
Really?
6 straight wins and 5th in a tough western conference on a super young team isn’t good enough?
KD is the real deal.
by Roll The Dyess on Feb 10, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I admire everything about that dude.
Awesome game, fearsome scoring threat… super humble, excellent approach to the game, and is only getting better. Kevin Durant is the truth.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
stop the hate
Durant’s going to own the L for a long time. If he ever even dreamed about signing w/the stones, I’d give him what ever he asked for.
I'm only hesitant on KD
Because I’m hesitant on a guy like Bosh. Bosh is having a magnificent year— but we’re just over half-way through the season. I’d prefer to avoid dropping a judgment now and eating my words later. Both KD and Bosh are having near-superstar seasons. While Durant is a stud, however, I have a strange sense of anemia about his production, and I can’t really quantify it. To be fair, I haven’t watched him much this year, but I just feel like there’s something empty about the scoring numbers he puts up.
6 straight wins and 5th in a tough western conference on a super young team isn’t good enough?
No, it’s not good enough. KD may very well be a max contract player and better than my opinion of him. But that sample size you pointed out? Saying a guy is worth a max contract because he’s won 6 games and his team is 5th after 50 games? How does that make anyone qualify to be a superstar? Poor example.
I’m happy to concede that Durant is better and worth more than my opinion of him. Until I can quantify why I feel like his production is not as equivalent to wins as some of the other max contract players, I’ll gladly defer to the rest of you.
I think it’s fair, however, to assume that if Dirk Nowitzki can be a max player, that a prime KD can too.
yeah…Kevin Durant has RIDICULOUS potential still and he’s already close to if not by this time leading the league in scoring.
Sure he’s got some solid talent in Westbrook and Green, but without Durant the team formerly known as the Sonics would be nothing.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
No problem! It has been an awesome discussion so far.
by garrettelliott on Feb 11, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I remember looking at the top salaries at the beginning of the 2008 season.
Some of the guys in the top 10, I believe, in terms of contracts included:
Stephon Marbury
Tracy McGrady
Chris Webber
Allen Iverson
All guys making $20 million or more, none of them anywhere worth it.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 12:26 AM EST reply actions
And this is why I’m so surprised that the NBA Players Union doesn’t want to re-negotiate the CBA. You’d think that they’d want money more evenly distributed across players while still allowing for large contracts to be paid out. Having 95%+ of all contracts in the NBA be mostly guaranteed or fully guaranteed just creates situations where Stephon Marbury is getting paid $20 million to do jack shit. It’s not that some other individual player is necessarily deserving of that money, but if you look at the NBA as having a finite amount of money to dish out to all players (which effectively is what the cap is), then having $20 million eaten up by someone undeserving actually hurts the mid-level players more than it hurst the top tier.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
It's also why I don't want to jump into the 2010 hoopla
Everyone is going to get overpaid this season. I believe there’s 20 teams with 10+ million or more heading into this offseason. When the other 17-18 strike out on LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, some teams are going to get desperate and overpay. Guys like Lee, Amar’e, and Boozer, who would be good buys at $12-13 million, suddenly get handed $15-17 million a year or maybe more.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 12:34 AM EST reply actions
IME, It breaks down into a couple different categories (the players I’m listing are off the top of my head, probably forgetting some guys, but the categories make sense to me)
Superdupermegastars: So freakishly good they’ll be underpaid even with max contracts.
1) Lebron. 2) Wade. 3) Dwight Howard. 4) Chris Paul.
…and in their primes: 5) Shaq. 6) Duncan. 7) KG.
Slightly less-super Superstars: They’re usually worth it. Max contract is roughly fair value relative to their production. But, they’re not in the above dominant group, which means teams that give them max contracts will need to have some other players on favorable contracts or have owners that don’t mind paying the tax.
1) Durant. 2) Pau Gasol. 3) Roy. 4) Deron Williams.
…in their primes: 5) DIrk. 6) Kobe. 7) Kidd. 8) Nash, but he’s just as good now as he’s been the last few years.
You can talk me into it, but I’d have to be drunk: Great players, but not worth max money. The problem with guys in this category is usually consistency. They might have individual seasons where they perform at the same level as the guys in the 2nd group, but they don’t do it every year.
1) Bosh. 2) Amare. 3) Boozer.
Strange but awesome: Unusual players who will never get max contracts because of their weirdness, but can be as productive as guys in the 2nd or 3rd group.
1) Josh Smith. 2) Gerald Wallace. 3) David Lee. 4) Iguodala. 5) Noah.
Guys who might get there: Too early to tell, but a couple of young guns who are looking really good, and might be worth a max contract in the next few years.
1) Kevin Love………. 2) Rondo. 3) Tyreke Evans. 4) Marc Gasol.
_________
Bringing this back to the Pistons, what I really want is for Jod to target guys who fit into the 4th (and 5th) categories. For us to become a contending team again, Jod is going to have to hit a high draft pick out of the park, and/or pick up a couple greatly under appreciated players.
Guys in the 1st group are never going to be traded. Guys in the 2nd and 3rd group are always going to be hard as hell to acquire, and with our current ownership situation, acquiring one of those players if they came with a max contract wouldn’t be a sure-fire route to contention.
by Gabe F-B on Feb 10, 2010 1:39 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
7) KG.
Kinda hurt that you’d include him, Gabe. If you take his performance history into account, he fits more into your “i’d have to be drunk” group than easily the “superdupermegastars”. Far before KG hit his “prime”, Wade, Lebron, Dwight, Shaq, Duncan and Paul were all supermotherfuckingstars. KG… no.
KG was never relevant in the win column until moved to Boston. Sure, Minny had that one nice year where some underdog from the eastern conference topped LA, but beyond that, he’s always been that player who pushed unreal numbers that never quite translated to wins.
Numerically, KG aint’ that far off from Duncan. But productively… Duncan is twice the player KG could ever have been. And I fucking celebrate that whole-heartedly. It took a series of miracles, trades that inspired conspiracies, to make KG a champion. It took Tim Duncan significantly less.
I dislike KG as much as I think I can dislike any person I’ve never met and never will meet.
But, IMO in his prime there’s no question he was easily worth a max contract.
Nice breakdown, Gabe
I have to agree with you on KG. In his prime, he was amazing defensively (better than anyone on MP’s list except maybe Duncan). I think that makes up for some less impressive scoring stats.
I hate KG, too, but the man carried Minny … Let’s not forget, he played in the West. If KG and Minny were in the East all those years? He carries them to the playoffs regularly.
He did carry Minny to the playoffs regularly.
And failed in spectacular fashion every single year except our title year. KG = overrated douche-bag. At least Dirk regularly gets his team out of the first round, and has his entire career. I’ve always felt like Dirk gets the short end of the stick when people talk about dominant bigs, because when you think about it, with all the money Cuban spends he’s STILL never put a second legit superstar next to Dirk. KG only got his ring because two other HOFers in their prime covered all his deficiencies (not clutch, scared of endgame shot, wilts under pressure). You put even a wannabe-superstar like Joe Johnson or Brandon Roy next to Dirk and I think he’s got at least one title.
And don’t say, “He had Steve Nash in Dallas!” Steve Nash’s game, by its very nature and by the offense that is required for it to flourish, never could and never will result in so much as a Finals appearance much less a title. There are certain tenets of good basketball that never change, and “defense wins in the postseason” is probably the big one.
Dude...
KG never, ever, ever had a supporting cast like Dirk did, ever.
I know we all hate KG and all, but the dude was a great player.
oh, and also
Brandon Roy, Deron Williams and Iguodala don’t really deserve to be in this conversation. Brandon Roy has more in common with Joe Johnson than he does Kobe Bryant, and Deron Williams has more in common with Andre Miller than he does Chris Paul. Give either of those players a max contract, and their teams should face a 2nd round ceiling on the best of days.
Deron Williams
Is probably the single toughest match up for any point guard in the league.
personally I like him a nose and a hair better than CP3.
6-3, 210 just flat out can play.
WORD.
My top 5 PG’s:
1. D-Will
2. Rondo
3. CP3
4. D-Rose
5. Chauncey
The way I see it— DWill has always owned CP3 head-to-head. DWill has also always owned Chauncey head-to-head. But Chauncey has also owned CP3 head-to-head. The logical conclusion is that Dwill is better than both, which I tend to believe. Plus he’s just a fucking bull. Anyone see the highlights from the Jazz-Clips game last night?
Check out DWill’s putback dunk.
Ridiculous.
really
we wouldn’t be having this conversation about Rondo if he was on any other team. The Boston team he is on has allowed him to mature greatly and become what he is today. If he was on another team that relied on him for scoring night in and night out people would be continually disappointed in him. He is a quick guard that has vision of the whole floor.
He shoots free throws worse than Ben Wallace and is a terrible jump shooter. I was astounded when I tuned into TNT the other night and they had a highlight of Rondo making a 3pt J from the corner. But with the team he is on(2 great shooters), he is perfect for them.
The Boston team he is on has allowed him to mature greatly and become what he is today.
Yeeahhh, the same could be said for Kobe, Duncan, DWade, or any other player who came of age on a successful team. What if Duncan isn’t giftwrapped for a Spurs team that would’ve won 55 games without him? What if Kobe hadn’t been taken by a Lakers squad that just acquired the greatest C of the last two decades? What if the Heat don’t make that Shaq trade? Don’t hate on Rondo just because he grew up on a team full of winners. Hell, I’m starting to believe that Tayshaun is actually horrible, and only looked good because he grew up playing in one of the better starting 5’s in league history.
this is a tired argument that has very little bearing in reality.
How did Rondo fare when KG was out for that long stretch (including last year’s playoffs)? How did Rondo fare when Allen or Pierce were out? Dude is nothing but STEADY, a triple-double capable machine of efficiency.
He’s a deadly defender, a great rebounder, a brilliant passer and a smart scorer— in that he’s wise enough to know when to take a shot and when to create. Saying Rondo is “in this conversation” because of his teammates is short-sighted and borderline ignorant of the facts about his level of production.
I’ll say it— Rajon Rondo is the best player in Boston.
not a fan of rondo, but he is super sweet, and coming into his own this year
i would say the big three is now rondo, pierce, allen, or if you would like pierce, rondo and perkins.
Second, as in...
I “second” your view that he’s the best player in Boston. He is without a doubt the best player in Boston. I think he should be the starting PG in the East, with D-Wade as the SG and AI at home mopping my piss out of his shoes.
by The Joel on Feb 11, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nick Collison
is doing amazing in N.O. right now.
also I think everyone forgets about the other star on that team. David West is an absolute beast. When West is feelin it, the only person who can stop him is himself.
one more MFing nitpick
I think the “strange but awesome” group should be “those who are paid pretty much on par with their performance, and the rest of the league should use these contracts as a barometer for what is the proper pay grade for talent”.
and “guys who might get there” should be “guys who will end up overpaid except for Rondo who just signed an undervalued contract”
I could end up being dead wrong, but IME, there’s pretty much a 0.00000000000000000000001% chance that Kevin Love will ever be fairly paid, let alone overpaid.
yeah kevin love is quietly having a nice season,
if he ever gets out of the hell that is minny he might be overpaid by someone, but he isnt a sexy name (despite his name sounding like a 70’s r and b singer) and he plays for a terrible team in a small market.
Kobe is the definition of superdupermegastar.
How he’s in tier two— and only “prime era” (which is the current era) no less— is mind-boggling. I know we Pistons fans tend to hate the Lakers and Kobe especially in overabundance, but let’s be serious— he’s top 3 this decade (#1 for me), and making his case for #2 shooting guard of all time. He’s worth every single penny he makes this year (and more) and has been worth every penny he’s been paid up to this point. If you’re starting a franchise today, he’s STILL one of the first 5 guys you pick even at 31 years old. 110% all game every game, injuries be damned— I wish we had ONE guy (other than Big Ben) on our team who had half Kobe’s drive and work ethic. Give the man some respect— he’s got to have earned it at this point.
by The Joel on Feb 10, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I disagree
I’m not even sure he’s top 3 currently.
LBJ > Kobe
Wade > Kobe
Dwight Howard may eventually become > Kobe.
Kobe scores a lot, and he’s incredibly talented on offense. But in terms of overall contributions? LBJ and Wade have him whipped, and it ain’t really that close.
And best SG of all time? My goodness, that’s Michael Jordon, and again, Kobe’s nowhere close.
#2 shooting guard of all time.
You know, the one that comes after #1 shooting guard of all time.
LBJ > Kobe — Individually on offense, sure. Kobe’s a better defender and beyond clutch.
Wade > Kobe - eh… that one’s hard for me to agree with; Kobe’s still a better defender, still more clutch, has gone further with less, and played the “one superstar with a bunch of scrubs” role way better in ’05’07 than Wade ever will.
Dwight > Kobe — not yet. not yet.
Even if you do like those guys more and put them ahead of Kobe, there’s still no way you can possibly leave him out of the first tier. He’s probably reading this posting and figuring out how to break your soul as we speak, because he’s THAT nasty.
Kobe’s selfish. He takes far too many shots, and it hurts his team.
Until he learns to limit his own shot attempts (not holding my breath) and deferring to the other great players on his roster, he’s not top-tier.
Take the last month of basketball as a case study on what I’m saying.
One question to you: how has Kobe done more with less than LeBron or Wade? When he Kobe every done anything without a dominant or developing, borderline dominant (Bynum) big man?
Going up 3-1 on PHX in the '06 first round.
That would be the main example. I hear your points though, but I guess I just feel like, if you’re the Lakers, and you know that in order for Kobe to be on his game and feeling his mojo that he needs to take 30 shots sometimes, well, you let him. Because he’s always going to end up helping more than he hurts. Hate on him all you want, but he’s been to the last two Finals and won one of them, and I expect him to be there again this June. And if it’s “all Bynum/Gasol/dominant big” then I call bullshit, because they don’t make it out of the first round without Kobe, regardless of how many pseudo-dominant bigs they have.
I don’t think it’s all big men. I think Kobe’s a great player. But he’s not as great as LBJ and Wade, IMO.
LBJ has arguably done more with less than any player who’s played since I’ve been alive. Kobe has a crazy skill set, but he’s just not good enough to carry a team to the Finals solo. LBJ is, and he’s done it.
That’s really all I’m saying.
But it’s cool. I know you dig Kobe, and you’ve got as good an eye for pure talent and skills as anyone on DBB (far better than me, admittedly).
When Kobe’s got his head/heart in the right place he’s at the top of the 2nd group IME. I respect him plenty, but I also watch a lot of LA games and (IMO) there’s no question he is capable of some truly counter-productive performances.
I dislike KG infinitely more than Kobe, but I also think KG in his prime was more productive. Lebron, Paul, Howard, Wade, Duncan are also all more productive. And currently I would definitely take Durant before Kobe as well, and probably Pau, Deron Williams, and maybe Roy depending on the rest of the roster.
I'm With The Joel
Although I’ve always been a Kobe fan, so my opinion is biased. But the guy is a total weapon in every aspect of the game. You mentioned below that he scores well, and can defend well, but doesn’t do anything else well. What else is there for him to do well? Pass better? Set better screens? There’s offense and defense and he’s pretty much tops in both categories, in my opinion. Not to mention he’s the best clutch player in the last 10 years. He’s starting to show wear and tear (he’s been playing FOREVER) so LeBron and Wade still have the overdrive speed that Kobe doesn’t have as much of any more, but Kobe can still get it done and deserves lots and lots of money.
by garrettelliott on Feb 11, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
I would say, I think there’s a difference between can and does.
IMO, Kobe doesn’t always do what he’s capable of, and personally, I tend to evaluate guys like that harshly. Now, it’s entirely possible that he simply doesn’t do those things all the time because he doesn’t need to; he’s got (far and away) the best supporting cast in basketball.
That said, LBJ and Wade are doing what they do in all aspects of the game night in and night out. It’s admittedly hard to judge Kobe too harshly for the last month due to his injuries, but still, the dude has been disproportionately shot happy for a good month. They’re still winning because they’ve got fringe greatness surrounding him. What would happen if LBJ or Wade had that type of month? Miami could kiss the playoffs goodbye, I think, and the Cavs would go from clear-cut favorites to middle-of-the-pack.
That’s why if I had to choose among the three, Kobe would be my last choice.
Again, just IME, and I realize I’m a know-it-all sometimes. Sorry if I’m coming across that way now.
It’s one thing to say Wade and LBJ are better than Kobe. It’s another to say that he isn’t even in the same tier as CP3 and Howard as Gabe did in his break down, which you agreed with.
Exactly.
Maybe someday those guys will do enough in the league to finally get into Kobe’s Tier.
I <3 the Kobe.
It’s one thing to say Wade and LBJ are better than Kobe. It’s another to say that he isn’t even in the same tier as CP3 and Howard as Gabe did in his break down, which you agreed with.
If Kobe isn’t as good as those two guys, then what sense does it make to put him in the same tier?
I mean, we could argue about this all day, and I love a good argument, but to say that someone isn’t as good as someone else is saying that they’re not the same caliber player / same tier, isn’t it?
I think the difficult thing when talking about Kobe vs. LeBron or Wade is that Kobe’s career is probably on the decline, while LeBron and Wade (barring injury) still have time to get even better than they already are. I think Kobe is worth as much as LBJ and Wade, but I definitely wouldn’t want to be paying him for another 5 years. So it seems much easier to think of the young guns and say, “Yeah, I’d totally break the bank for them,” because they’re going to be around for a while. But I think Kobe, for the last few years and probably for the next 2 or 3, deserves to be in the top tier.
by garrettelliott on Feb 11, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Which two guys?
Because it said: It’s another to say that he isn’t even in the same tier as CP3 and Howard. I’m confused if you meant that both Howard and CP3 are better than Kobe or if you were referring to Wade and LBJ.
Also, you said:
to say that someone isn’t as good as someone else is saying that they’re not the same caliber player / same tier, isn’t it?
Do you think that Howard and CP3 are equal to LBJ and Dwade? They were both in Gabe’s top tier. For that matter, do you think that Dwade is as good as LBJ? I don’t. But I think he belongs in the same arbitrary “they’re the superduper best” category. If we’re going to be arguing about arbitrary and subjective categories, I think it’s a little silly and opportunistic to then draw retroactive boundaries that exclude Kobe Bryant. Honestly, it seems like you kind of overextended yourself, and now you’re forced to keep moving the goal posts.
Also, for the record, I’m a Kobe hater.
Just speaking for myself, I was thinking of those tiers as a way of putting max contracts into context, not as a “these guys r the best and if u disagree u can suck it!” declaration.
The top tier are guys who IME, even with max contracts will be underpaid. The second tier would be fairly paid with max contracts.
I don’t think it’s all that arbitrary or subjective to say that Lebron, Paul, Wade, Howard, Duncan, Shaq, or (here’s my one semi-controversial guy) KG, are/were all more productive players than Kobe. Every advanced stat that I’m aware of has those guys above Kobe by various margins. But the thing is, they can’t be paid any more than him, so it’s kinda moot contract-wise.
I guess I don’t see what the insult is. What I said about the 2nd tier was; they are worth max contracts, but aren’t quite so productive that they out-perform those contracts, so their teams will need to either have other very productive players on favorable contracts, or be willing to go over the tax. I still think that’s logical.
Fair enough
I don’t pore over advanced stats and I’ve watched very little NBA this year, so I can’t make a convincing argument about where Kobe belongs with all those players. I think it is intuitively easy to argue that LBJ and Dwade are superior players because they have similar roles on their teams. The comparison to CP3 and the big men you listed is a little more difficult on a qualitative basis. Anyways, I would say I’m dubious that CP3 and Dwight Howard are clearly better than Kobe. That was the crux of my first comment.
However, even if you accepted that Kobe was less valuable than all those players, you could still hold the belief that he was underpaid(in his prime) at a max contract. AKA, that he belongs in the same category as those other guys. That was the crux of my second comment in which I accused Gulk of moving the goal posts.
Furthermore, I was arguing that the categories were arbitrary and subjective (I didn’t say that the ordinal ranking of the players was subjective). Where is the line between overpaid, fairly paid and underpaid? I assume that Berri has done some analysis that quantifies wins per dollar or something like that. Even so, where you draw the line is somewhat subjective.
Finally, and this is sort of a meta-nitpick (and not directly germane to our discussion), I do have a little problem with the idea that a statistical analysis is “objective”. There is no way to control for all the potentially relevant variables that could cause omitted variable bias in these statistical analyses. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t use statistics to gain a better picture, but I have a problem when stats are put up on a pedestal. Given your comments on PER, I think you probably agree with that sentiment.
Ahh, very good post.
I was arguing that the categories were arbitrary and subjective (I didn’t say that the ordinal ranking of the players was subjective). Where is the line between overpaid, fairly paid and underpaid?
I do have a little problem with the idea that a statistical analysis is "objective". There is no way to control for all the potentially relevant variables that could cause omitted variable bias in these statistical analyses.
I see where you’re coming from better now, and I agree with both points in different ways.
Tiers or any type of player ranking, are always at least kinda subjective. But not getting into too deep of a stats (or Berri) point, the basic math I was thinking about in my head was if, using Berri’s WP, a player regularly produces about 20 wins a season (Lebron, Howard, Paul, Wade, Duncan, Shaq, and KG generally have), with a hypothetical roster full of exactly average players and that star player, that team would win about 53-ish games, which is usually around the minimum for a contending team. It’s subjective, but the idea is that teams with those players can create contenders without hitting the luxury tax or having any guys with huge bargain contracts.
But yeah, even the basic box score has some inherent subjectivity, so nothing in basketball can ever be perfectly objective, which is what makes it the best.
Do you think that Howard and CP3 are equal to LBJ and Dwade?
“Equal to” is the sticking point. No, they’re not equal. They play different positions, and they accomplish very different things for their respective franchises. However, they are “equal,” IME, in the sense that you could build a franchise around any of them, give them max money, and still have enough left over to fill out a competitive roster without getting bent over by the luxury tax. Those guys do so much more than just take and make shots… At their respective positions, they are head and shoulders above anyone else; therefore, they are the “top tier.” Now, admittedly, that’s partially based on objective analysis, and it’s largely based on subjective analysis, and further, “top-tier” is a purely subjective category.
To me, it’s not obvious that Kobe’s the best at his own position, let alone the best player in the game. I think he probably has the capacity to be when he wants to be (or when he’s forced to be), and I think he probably defers a lot to his excellent teammates. I understand those points.
For that matter, do you think that Dwade is as good as LBJ?
No, LBJ is clearly the best player in basketball.
Honestly, it seems like you kind of overextended yourself, and now you’re forced to keep moving the goal posts.
How so? Kobe Bryant is not better than LBJ or Wade, and you could make a case that CP3 and Howard (and even Pao) actually produce just as much, if not more, than Kobe. (And when I say “produce” I mean in terms of quantitative, objective measures, not qualitative, subjective impressions of who’s got more talent).
IME: Kobe’s not as complete a player / he’s not as good as those other guys / he doesn’t produce as much / he’s not in the same tier — all of those phrases seem synonymous to me … using them interchangeably isn’t moving the goal posts, at least not to me.
When it comes to what a guy is “worth” in terms of his contract … That’s probably where it gets confusing. Kobe’s worth a max contract in the sense that a max contract is what it’s going to take LA to retain him. I would agree. If you want Kobe, you’re going to have to pay that to get him. But you’re also going to have a lot of other holes to fill, and you’re going to have to have an owner who’s willing to pay the luxury tax in order to put a lot of other quality guys around him. LA does, so it’s not a problem there.
However, if I’m building a team, I’m not rushing to give him max money, because IME, max money guys should be able to literally carry a team to the playoffs — because their games are that complete. Again, IME, Kobe no longer can (and I’m not 100% he ever could). Honestly, a max contract is going to start around $20 million (depending on how long he’s been in the league), and the cap is projected to be around $53 million. For nearly 40% of your team’s total salary under the cap, that player had better be able to win you a lot of games.
Further, I’m thinking about this from the perspective of a Pistons fan, a team who appears to be considering Boozer and Amare, two guys who are going to want contracts that approach the maximum (or at least very large deals). Are they worth it? Well, they’ll probably get contracts that are just below maximum, so they’re worth it in the sense that it’s going to take that much money to get them. But again, neither of those guys gives you enough on $15-$17 million per annum to justify it if you’re Detroit — because historically, you’re not the type of team that goes over the tax line to win, and you don’t have enough talent around those guys to be all that competitive with them.
I actually mostly agree with you, but....
The point I was making with the goal posts comment was in reference to you saying:
to say that someone isn’t as good as someone else is saying that they’re not the same caliber player / same tier, isn’t it?
However, you said that LBJ is clearly better than Dwade. Yet you seem ok including them in the same category. I felt like you when you made that argument, you were redefining the criteria on an ad hoc basis to exclude Kobe. I don’t think you really addressed that argument. You made a lot of strong points as to why Kobe doesn’t belong in that group, but kind of ignored my actual point. Anyways, it’s sort of a silly nit pick, but I felt the need to argue, so there you go.
God I really suck at life
I messed that up pretty good, but my point was just that categories are going to contain players along a continuum of values and it is sort of silly to suggest that if you say that player x and y are better than player z that, clearly, they belong in different categories. Especially if player x is better than y, but they are lumped in the same category.
Yeah, I guess my response is that I’m not sure all of us are using the same subjective categories, know what I mean?
If “worth max contact” is a category, then I’d say throw them all in there. And that’s probably the most objective category we could get, so I’m good with it.
The continuum you mention is helpful …
Here's what I want
Gabe and MFMP as co-GMs. These two guys not only get talent and production, but they also understand the cap/tax and relative value for different skill sets.
A couple of my own thoughts:
I’m with Gabe in that I think Joe Dumars needs to do a couple things AND get extremely lucky.
He has to find a way to acquire an undervalued player (in terms of lots of production on a value contract), ala Ben Wallace circa 2001, who can anchor the defense and clean the glass. Post scoring should also be a priority, but I’m not certain it must come from that particular player. Ideally, yes, but not necessarily.
Josh Smith is the next Ben Wallace, or at least the closest thing to him right now, plus offense. I doubt he’s ever acquirable, but that’s the player type that should be Joe’s first priority. I’d take a guy like Love or either Gasol as further examples of the player type that I think we need (although they’re not as good on D as Smith).
He also needs to get extremely lucky with draft position and then pick smartly. Our best chance at a guy like that is probably the draft, and there are at least a few guys who give us some of what we desperately need — efficient inside scoring, interior defense, rebounding. I don’t mind if that’s accomplished by committee, but as of now, only Ben Wallace seems to be apt at any of them (and Max of late). Charlie can score inside, but he never goes there.
Then, he needs to find an efficient PG to complement the inefficient scorers we have at other positions. Someone who can actually manage the offense with the personnel we have. Rodney is not that player. He’s a combo-ish guard at best at the moment, and I like him and all, but he’s not the guy who can run the show. I also love MFWB, but he’s not a full-time facilitator either.
======
Alright, sum this mess up. My complaining regarding Joe’s moves is because he’s done exactly the opposite of what I think we need. I’d rather have him done basically anything other than what he did. I’d rather him overpay David Lee, I’d rather him hold onto Chauncey than turn him into Ben Gordon. Etc., etc., etc.
Okay, here’s a realistic assessment: I’d rather he held onto the money that he spent on BG and sat on it and gone into this season with Stuckey+Rip+MFWB+Afflalo+Chucky. Honestly. There’s no way you can convince me that we’re worse off with that guard rotation than we are now, and it costs roughly half of what we pay now. Further, who cares if Rip’s contract is bad if it’s the only bad-ish contract on your books?
To me, BG’s contract is a waste, literally. Ben Gordon’s player type is the easiest to fill - how many young SGs are there in the league who can score a lot of points by shooting a lot of shots, all while avoiding defense and not creating for their teammates? They’re everywhere, playing for MLE$10 million money. His contract is fracking nonsense. It was a horrible blunder.
Charlie V is what he is, and he’ll give us value (if we hold onto him). But he doesn’t come anywhere close to fitting the needs that we have. He doesn’t defend; he tries, sometimes, but even when he tries, he mostly fails. He’s fine on the boards. But he’s underwhelming … a spark plug off the bench or a 4th option on a good starting 5.
Give me any of the guys on Gabe’s 4 or 5 list before BG and CV any day of the week, literally, anyone of them would be better than the two guys he signed. Turn either of them (and/or Rip/Tay/Max) into 1 or 2 of those guys, and I’m a happy man, and our franchise is waaaay better off.
As it is now, we’re mediocre, we’re lottery bound, and we’re basically capped out for several years to come. As NBA franchises go, it doesn’t get that much worse.
I don’t want us to salary dump, because I don’t think the benefits outweigh the costs. But frankly, it might be the only realistic option at this point. That is a damn shame, and the blame rests squarely and solely with Dumars.
lol @ myself
Ridiculous wall of text, and html fails. Sorry, I got in a ranting mood. I apologize for that mess.
too bad I didn't make the cut for Co-GM
I would be happy with an assistant scout position though. nudge
Honestly, Gordon is our best guard.
He’s the most efficient of any of our guards.
TS%
Bynum: .512
Hamilton: .475
Stuckey: .473
Gordon: .550
Defensively, when your put him on opposing PGs with Stuckey on SGs, he’s actually pretty good.
His PER vs. his opponents: 17.2 vs. 13.9
In fact, both Stuckey and Gordon are better off cross-matched then defending their normal positions. Stuckey gets torched by opposing SGs (16.1 vs. 18.4) but is a lot better against opposing SGs (19.1 vs. 14.0).
Honestly, if we had to keep one guard, it’d be Gordon. No offense to MFWB.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, I meant torched by opposing PGs
He only shoots .357 at PG and his opponent shoots .541. Gordon actually has better lateral quickness to keep up with the quicker PGs, unlike Stuckey.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
if you’re drawing those number from 82games.com, I’d hesitate to trust them too much. I’m pretty sure 82games automatically cross-matches Stuck/Gordon because of their height, when they’re on the court together.
82games only goes by who you're guarding, regardless of what position you're playing.
It doesn’t “automatically” crossmatch them, it just goes by who they’re guarding at the time.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
I’m very, very skeptical of that claim.
Every line-up 82games lists with Stuckey and Gordon in the backcourt together has Gordon at PG and Stuckey at SG, I know I’ve seen them not cross-matched many times, so the data 82games is citing is pretty improbable.
Even if you don't believe it
Gordon STILL has a better PER than his opponent at SG. So he’s still outperforming his counterpart regardless of position. He just does a better job at PG.
And for the most part, the only time they’ve need to cross-match was on much taller SGs. There’s not really that many “big” back-courts in the NBA.
Either way, it’s very telling that Stuckey struggles more against PGs than Gordon does, despite claims of Stuckey being a superior defender.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Feb 10, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think it’s that clear cut. I really would ignore the PER comparisons (because it’s a crappy stat), and look more closely at the other stats.
When you do that, you see that Gordon gets out-produced when playing either PG or SG at everything except PPG’s and drawing FT’s (his counterparts shoot a higher percentage, get more rebounds, more assists, more steals, more blocks, and have lower turnover rates). Gordon is a better scorer than Stuckey, and because of this, his PER is better than Stuckey’s, despite the fact that Gordon is being out-produced in a wide range of stats.
Stuckey, on the other hand, if he would just stop shooting the fucking ball so much when he’s theoretically playing PG, actually looks pretty good (again, if you ignore PER). He rebounds much better than his counterpart when at PG (and also at SG), and when he’s listed at PG he has a very low turnover rate, and draws twice as many fouls as his counterpart. Obviously the high volume, inefficient shooting sucks, but IMO the bigger problem is the “high volume” side of the equation, which seems relatively easily correctable. If he could just be convinced to use less possessions, his low turnover rate and rebounding advantage would counter his low efficiency, and we’d suddenly have a much more productive player on our hands.
Anyway, this is all kinda skewed because 82games system for deciding which player gets credited as playing each position is unreliable.
He’s the most efficient of any of our guards.
I still think Bynum is, and Rip does more for the team than Gordon — BUT, let’s set that aside for a second.
I’ll say, for the sake of argument, that I agree with you completely.
Dampier is the best center on the Mavs. Does that make him a good player overall? Ben Gordon is the best guard on a team that’s lottery bound. I mean this not directed at you in a nasty way — but who cares? The league is full of “good” players on bad teams … maybe there’s a reason those teams are bad.
ehh
Bynum is also a major ball hog who causes the offense to get stagnant. What happened to MFWB? We just have midrange jumpshooting Bynum this year. Honestly, it’s getting on my nerves that lately he’s just taking a short crossover and settling for a jumpshot. As much as we harp on Stuckey’s decision making, he at least gets everyone involved and keeps the ball moving.
by bearded thundar on Feb 11, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
BTW- Thank you for the props Mr. Gulker :)
I’ll co-sign with MP that GM by committee would be sweet! The only condition is that Forty’s Top Notch Elite Level Girlfriend must be the Coach.
by Gabe F-B on Feb 10, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'n that shit to the FULLEST
Do you clean floors, it now has alcohol spit all over
Piso Mojado amigo
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
Ed Davis Scouting Report up
I think those have not been watching him will be up for disappointment. I won’t comment on the report, but I will says this much, take a look at UNC’s record.
by bearded thundar on Feb 11, 2010 7:38 PM EST reply actions
A great example of why I don't want Bosh
Then Bosh revealed that he’s not necessarily interested in playing anywhere that he’s not the clear-cut franchise player.
"That’s a good question," Bosh said when asked by ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher if he’s bothered by the widespread perception that he’s determined to follow either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade by signing on with one of the teams they choose starting July 1.
"It’s funny you say that, because I was thinking about it. I was just looking at what people say and it’s like, ‘Chris is going to go here and play with him or this, this and that.’ I’m like, ‘Wait a minute.’ I feel like I should be built around. And maybe that’s just my ego talking, but I feel that I’m a very good player in this league and I’m only going to get better. So … maybe we should be getting somebody [in Toronto]."
This is the first year Bosh has ever demonstrated that he can be more than a second-tier (yeah, I went there) guy, but in his own mind, he’s right up there with LBJ, Wade, Kobe, et al. It is just your ego talking. Get some self-awareness. You won’t win a championship unless you do.
That's been an on-off rumor for years.
But I agree, distressing all the same.
"I didn’t even know Elvis was from Memphis, I thought he was from Tennessee." — Drew Gooden.
And the answer is………..no one. The team is awesome as-is.
(but I’d still take Bosh)
by garrettelliott on Feb 18, 2010 11:24 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
