Ohh MFWB, MFWB! Wherefore art thou, MFWB?
I'm not quite sure where MFWB went, but this Will Bynum needs to change his style of play.
The guy has immense talent and physical abilities, but his game is built way too much around flash, not to mention his defense is absolutely atrocious. +/- may not be a very accurate tool, but when you consistently are in the deep negatives, I think that's the sign of some problems.
I can understand getting beat by Aaron Brooks or being out muscled by Deron Williams, but I cannot stand it when guys just give up and watch their man get a layup. Or get frustrated and grab their jersey for a cheap foul. I recall that someone posted an old youtube video of his high school days, and the guys repeatedly said that he was an amazing talent, but focused too much on getting attention for himself. Not coincidentally, his defense was great in Cleveland, when the game was on national tv.
Honestly my biggest problem with him is that he tries play the role of LeBron, consistently driving into the lane and then when he gets in trouble, toss it to a teammate in mid-air. That really only works in a situation like Cleveland, where you are surrounded by great shooters. It has consistently shown to completely stagnate the offense unless if we play at 100 miles per hour, in which case we get murdered defensively.
Here in Detroit, our point guards have to be much more focused on sharing the ball and let everyone else get a chance to create. That way you get the defense moving around and someone is bound to get open.
For as many faults as Rodney may have, just take a look at these numbers, they're staggering. We're not only better defensively, but also offensively (Rodney here and Bynum here).
Under Bynum, we score 103.2 points per 100 possesions and give up 115. Whereas under Stuckey, we score 106.7 points and give up only 108.9. While Stuckey's numbers aren't very good compared to the elite point guards, they're still much better than Will's, and it's not even close.
In addition, the on/off court for Stuckey is +11.3, Bynum is -9.
I get it, Bynum is a much more exciting player to watch. However that certainly does not make him the more effective player. Honestly, I'm coming to the conclusion that the biggest reason why people think Will's a better point guard is because he can make fancier passes, not because he does a better job of running the team. Don't get me wrong, Rodney still needs a lot of maturing, not to mention he needs to work on his shooting mechanics - but, he has a much more humble style of play that has shown to be best for the team.
I would also like to add that this 4 guard rotation seems to have failed in many different ways, especially because it is very difficult for Kuester to distribute the minutes. It seems that whenever one guard gets hot, he pulls him out to play someone off the bench to keep everyone happy. It certainly doesn't make it easier that two of them make 10x as much as he does and one guy is forcing the issue to land his first big contract. Quite simply, I don't like it. At most, we should have 3 major guards. That way the minutes distribute quite nicely at around 30 a piece and we can go to a 3 guard lineup without screwing with someone's minutes. Not to mention the 3 guard lineup becomes an advantage, not a tool to keep everyone happy. At this stage of the game, Bynum's the odd man out. It'll be much harder to get rid of either Gordon or Rip and the numbers clearly support that Stuckey does a better job of running the offense.
A few thoughts to dwell on. I've been waiting this whole season to MFWB, and IMO, he's never shown up. Sure Bynum scored at will at the start of the season, but that still wasn't MFWB - he was playing extremely selfishly, hardly ever passing the ball. The guy has immense talent, but he needs an attitude check; it's not very hard to see that he feels he's the best player on the court at all times. I'm all for giving him the time to mold his game to become a better team player, but the clock's ticking, and I'm sure he'll have plenty of other suitors waiting come free agency.
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bq I would also like to add that this 4 guard rotation seems to have failed in many different ways, especially because it is very difficult for Kuester to distribute the minutes. It seems that whenever one guard gets hot, he pulls him out to play someone off the bench to keep everyone happy. It certainly doesn’t make it easier that two of them make 10x as much as he does and one guy is forcing the issue to land his first big contract. Quite simply, I don’t like it. At most, we should have 3 major guards.
my god the prophecy of khandor is coming true!
What I like about stats is how they separate perception vs. reality.
Rodney still needs a lot of maturing not mention needs to work on his shooting mechanics – but, he has a much more humble style of play that has shown to be best for the team.
This season: Stuckey usage % is 26.3%. Bynum’s usage % is 21.8%
Sure Bynum scored at will at the start of the season, but that still wasn’t MFWB – he was playing extremely selfishly, hardly every passing the ball.
…Bynum’s been playing so selfishly that he has the highest assist rate on the team…
Here are the five-man units Bynum has played with most often this season. In 7 out of 10 line-ups Stuckey was also on the court… And from their usage %, we know Stuckey has not been the player who has deferred.
Last season Bynum had one of the best plus/minus ratings on the team (and Stuckey had one of the worst, as did Dice, which should illustrate how much stock ought to be put into +/-), and if you take a look at the five-man units you’ll see that Bynum was only on the court with Stuckey in 2 out of 10 most common line-ups.
And here is a comparison of Stuckey and Bynum’s careers to date (please click this link and look at the per/36 and advanced numbers, I think it will be at least somewhat surprising). I’m curious if anyone looking at how similar their stats are can really argue that there is much of a difference between Stuckey and Bynum.
They are both ball-dominant guards. Bynum passes a little better, Stuckey rebounds a little more, but they are very similar players. However, only one of them has been played to his strengths this season.
by Gabe F-B on Mar 11, 2010 12:23 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
a whole lot of truth here.
Stuckey is 3+ years younger than Bynum, though.
(And wow, I can’t believe Bynum shoots 3 pointers worse than Stuckey — doesn’t seem that way to me at least)
both main post and comment rec’d.
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I think you missed the point
I never said that Stuckey is the more talented player, in fact I said the opposite. My main point was the offense runs much better under Stuckey, you can’t deny the points per 100 possessions deficit. Also Bynum’s defense looks to have seriously regressed from last year, that 115 points given up is a pretty awful number.
I myself am not a fan of Bynum’s consistent drive and kick strategies. We simply do not have a very good catch and shoot team. If you compare Williams to Bynum last night, Bynum seemed to be forcing the issue to get into the paint where as D-Will simply took what the defense gave him. That’s one reason why the Jazz have such a great offense, no one really forces the issue to get their own shots, and so they consistently have 25+ assists, often 30+.
by bearded thundar on Mar 11, 2010 7:27 AM EST up reply actions
I think you missed my point
you can’t deny the points per 100 possessions deficit
This is where +/- goes off the rails. You are crediting Stuckey and blaming Bynum without looking at the context of the two players +/- rating.
Here are the Pistons players basic stats. The two players with by far the highest Ortg’s are Big Ben (first) and JJ (second).
Here is Stuckey’s minutes distribution. All ten of the listed line-ups have Big Ben in them, and Stuckey’s four most common line-ups all have JJ in them.
Compare that with Bynum’s minute distribution. Only four out of ten of his most common line-ups have Big Ben, and only three have JJ.
My point was that Stuckey and Bynum’s individual production is very, very similar. So IME all Stuckey’s prettier +/- rating really shows is that he’s played a majority of his minutes with the Pistons two most effective players this season.
I like to credit players with their own production. And just looking at their own production, there hasn’t been much of a difference between Bynum and Stuckey.
by Gabe F-B on Mar 11, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think its unfair to look at player usage % in this case
When you look at player usage % in relation to who they play with on the court the most often, you mentioned yourself that all 10 of the listed lineups have Big Ben in them. Having Ben on the floor will always result in an increase of usage % for the players that play with him most frequently.
Likewise, Bynum playing with the $90 Million Chucker squad that is CV/BG, you’d expect his usage % to go down. Having said all that, I may be misdefining “usage %” so correct me if I’m wrong on that regard.
And lastly, I would agree with your above post, and ultimately the point I bring up was only one piece of the key point you were making…but for someone who is obviously heavily data-driven, I thought it was worthwhile to point out.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
That’s a fair point, but many of Bynum’s minutes have come with Stuckey also on the court at the same time (and Stuckey’s usage is still much higher).
I just don’t see any indication that Bynum has been “selfish” over the course of this season. I’m sure Bynum’s had a couple games where he got tunnel vision, and I think the same can easily be said for Stuckey (maybe more than with Bynum).
Agreed.
I think the most appropriate thing to say (and remembering this moreso anecdotally) is that at times Will forgets what makes his game so potent (combining his speed and quickness with managing/running a fluid offense) and instead reverts to dribble, dribble, dribble, drive and kick with 5 seconds left on the shot clock.
I certainly wouldn’t call that being selfish (just something that he should work on individually and something that the team needs to work on collectively) and think that that is an issue that both PGs have.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
I would also like to add that this 4 guard rotation seems to have failed in many different ways, especially because it is very difficult for Kuester to distribute the minutes.
That’s because Kuester is not an elite level coach…
Jonas Jerebko : Pistons :: Skippin' Bail, Dippin' Jail, Whippin' Tail and Sippin' Ale : MF Doom
by Mike Payne on Mar 11, 2010 10:06 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
If only...
…there was an elite level basketball analyst (on furlough from his mother’s basement) who could advise the Pistons on this and other matters.
by -PS- on Mar 11, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nitpicking time...
“Wherefore” isn’t a Shakespearean way of saying “where.” It means “why.” Let’s recall 10th grade English: when Juliet asks “wherefore art thou, Romeo” she is talking directly to him. Obviously she knows where he is. Her questions is meant as a comment on the problem of their families feuding.
by Birdman84 on Mar 11, 2010 12:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Just an observation--
Completely disregarding stats because I think that they’re as much misleading as they are insight-bringing—watching this team, it’s pretty obvious that typically we’re a lot smoother on offense when Stuck runs the point than when WB does (notice the missing “MF”). Sure WB had a nice game against the Rockets, but in general there’s a “chicken-with-its-head-cut-off” feeling when he’s in charge. I wouldn’t mind doing a sign-n-trade with Will going to somebody who will throw us a couple picks.
MFBB (Melodiously Fertile Bill Bynum)
CV is in 7 of Bynums 10 lineup distributions, and Gordon is in 5. I am becoming more and more cynical about the $90 Million Men and their ability to play in a team offense. In fact, BG being on the floor in general seems to create stagnation, turnovers, and sour taste in my mouth akin to alkaline AA battery acid…
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
That's only partially true
Bynum still does all the ball handling, Gordon hardly takes any shots at all these days. He’s averaging a pathetic 7.6 shot attempts in March. He is turnover prone, but not to the point that I would say it has a large impact on Bynum’s play. CV also only averaged 5.9 in February and is averaging 10.8 now. However I would to point out that CV also generates a lot of Bynum’s assists as he’ll jack up any pass you give him (so even though he shoots 40%, I would be willing to bet that each pass to CV generates more assists to each pass to Gordon or Prince, guys who like to put the ball on the floor).
The only thing that would have a major effect is CV+Gordon’s defense, which would help somewhat explain the 115 points given up per 100 possessions (but that number is still terrible regardless of how you spin it).
Honestly I didn’t check the numbers until last night to see if my suspicions were true. Like Joel said, the offense is visibly smoother under Stuckey and I think that’s because Bynum loves to be Mr. Star and then pass when he gets into trouble. That would be fine on a team with a lot of great catch and shoot players, but our offense simply isn’t built to handle that.
by bearded thundar on Mar 11, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly I didn’t check the numbers until last night to see if my suspicions were true. Like Joel said, the offense is visibly smoother under Stuckey and I think that’s because Bynum loves to be Mr. Star and then pass when he gets into trouble.
This is seriously a little mind boggling to me. Stuckey is 10th on the team in ORtg. He literally has the lowest individual offensive rating of any player in the rotation. Of all the players on the roster only Won’tcox, Kwame, Chucky, and Summers have worse offensive ratings.
Maybe the offense has been visibly smoother under Stuckey because he’s played the majority of his minutes with our two most effective offense players (Big Ben and JJ).
Bynum’s ORtg isn’t much better, but that’s kinda my point, Stuck/WB have produced almost identical numbers through their careers. Last season Bynum’s +/- rocked, and Stuckey’s sucked. This season their +/- ratings have reversed. If Stuckey had improved his individual numbers I might be willing to give him some of the credit for this change, but he really hasn’t.
Instead they’re both basically doing the same thing as before, except Stuckey’s usage has gone up and Bynum’s has gone down. And yet, somehow Bynum is the one that is perceived as being selfiish…(?)
Math-turbation.
Bynum’s ORtg isn’t much better, but that’s kinda my point, Stuck/WB have produced almost identical numbers through their careers.
This is specifically the reason that a lot of “advanced metrics” and statistics is just math-nerd fappery. The numbers might look similar for both, or even be better for Will, but when you WATCH the game, it’s clear we’re not a better team with him on the floor. It’s exactly like what you have in Golden State with Monta Ellis— sure, he puts up good numbers, but they’re quite literally a better team when he’s not on the floor. And it’s easy to see when you watch (it helps that Curry looks like he could be an all-time PG talent). I think that what you see on the floor is all that matters, usage rates and other math-turbation be damned.
I say we do what we can to get some picks/assets for WB instead of resigning him. Sign-n-trade? I’d LOOOVE to pry Collison away from the Hornets.
The timing is interesting
This timing on this post is interesting. I’m not going to get into statistical analysis, because Gabe already did a good job of that. I’m just going to point out a couple of things that have seemed obvious to me.
1) Will Bynum circa 2010 has not looked like Will Bynum circa 2009. I think it is commonly believed that this is due to ankle injuries (yes, plural) that he has been battling since the beginning of the year. Your post doesn’t even seem to acknowledge this.
2) Will Bynum seems to be getting close to 100% now, as evidenced by his attempt to dunk the ball OVER Okur (IIRC) the other night. I’ve not seen that kind of confidence from Will for a long, long time and it tells me he is finally starting to feel better.
3) Will’s last three games have been three of his best of the season. His play against Cleveland was ok, but his play against Houston and Utah was better than ok. It was good. This lends further evidence that he’s feeling better, but also leads me to my next point..
4) Will’s play with the “starting” lineup since Stuckey left has been significantly better than his play with the bench players previous to that. My theory is that the loud sucking noises coming from CV31 and Ben Gordon for most of the year have hurt Bynum’s game significantly. His improved play with the starters would seem to support that theory (although I recognize the small sample size).
5) You disparage Bynum for his drive-and-kick style, but don’t most of the best PG’s do this? Nash, Kidd, CP3; aren’t all of those guys most effective when they get in to the lane first and then pass out to an open man? Why is it bad when Bynum does it and good when they do it?
To me, this is also the biggest difference between Bynum and Stuckey. They are very similar in styles, except that I think their goals once they get to the basket are very different. Stuckey still hasn’t seemed to grasp that he has options once he gets to the rim. He’s putting the ball up about 95% of the time. Bynum will use a drive to kick to ball to an open teammate far more often than Stuckey does, in my observance.
The stuff about Bynum’s “attitude” just doesn’t jive with what I’ve read about him. The dude seems really humble and has had to work like a dog to get his shot in the NBA. Comparing him to LeBron in any way seems ridiculous to me, and a bit of a low-blow actually.
by Big Z in Orlando on Mar 12, 2010 11:00 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’m not sure what we’re debating here. I think most of DBB would agree with the following, and I think you can support all of these conclusions via stats and/or educated observation:
**Stuckey and Bynum have very, very, similar play types. Both tend to dominate the ball. Both struggle to score from the perimeter. Both drive to the basket a lot.
**Stuckey is a better rebounder. Bynum is better at creating for and finding his teammates.
**Both of them have struggled mightily at times this year and aren’t playing up to what they are capable of.
**Both have great attitudes and work ethics, and both appear to be very committed to this team, this season — which says a lot. I think plenty of NBA players would have packed it in by now. But not these two.
**Dumars thinks highly of both guys and is on record saying so — he’s even gone so far as to call Bynum part of the “core” moving forward.
Beyond that, we’ll disagree for various reasons. Purely IME, neither one has demonstrated to me that they are good enough to be full-time PGs for winning teams (yet). Right now, Stuck seems to be best suited for a Jason Terry — Super Sub — Combo Guard role. MFWB seems to be best suited for a change-of-pace spark plug PG off the bench role. But neither of them are doing enough in terms of facilitating offense for teammates.
Just my two cents.
Interesting article regarding statistics and NBA decision makers
In the Wall Street Journal, no less.
One quote that stand out to me:
These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three—the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks—are on pace to make the postseason.
did you see all those truhoop articles about the sloan mit analytics conference over the last weekend? some of it was somewhat interesting. they talked about stuff like that. i was reading and thought “brgulker would prolly love this kinda stuff”
I would like to see him maintain this level of play
But 20 assists is no doubt MF level, especially the way he did it. He was playing the role of point guard and not star of the show; he was consistently delivering the ball to where people needed it without having to put his head down into the crowd and kill the entire shot clock. That’s what I wanted to see from him.
Sometimes I really wonder if the Pistons players read this site, because a lot of the stuff we’ve discussed seems to be showing up (especially with Rodney, him adding a floater, taking set shots, etc and he said he follows hoopshype).
by bearded thundar on Mar 13, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
When you look at the guys past though
you understand why he plays flashy. Most guys in the NBA just played hard and got scouted and drafted. Will on the other hand had to take a different route to get there. Constantly trying to get scouts to notice him and write up something good about him. I believe this has had a negative effect on him. The guy has had a chip on his shoulder the whole ride to the NBA and now thats all he knows.
I don’t quite know why but Will has changed his playing style and just hasn’t had the quickness we have all seen at the beginning of the season. The change of speed while driving and body control was something we all saw at its best in Chauncey Billups and it was something I saw a glimmer of at the beginning of the season. I guess I can only hope he can return to what we saw in the beginning.
Will the Pistons ever get their defense back?
There was a time when if the Pistons scored over 100 points, they won the game handily. Now they score almost 110 points and still lose. What is going on with defense?
Exactly one of my points
Bynum might be an efficient scorer, but his defense has been absolutely atrocious of late. His ankles are fine, it’s more of an effort issue, it’s not uncommon to see him standing off to the side, watching his man dribble into the lane. His only possible excuse would be that Qster likes to use zones, and so technically he doesn’t guard a specific person.
by bearded thundar on Mar 18, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Even zones are almost always matchup zones
You can’t just guard space in the NBA. The only excuse he’d have is if the zone as a whole is not shifting properly or in time (no surprise there when BG or CV are on the floor) and so Will is forced to hedge the defender in his area with the guy blowing past BG or whomever else.
Regardless, I don’t think Kuester was the right decision in the off-season. I think Avery Johnson was, but that Karen Davidson 1) didn’t want to pay the money to get Avery Johnson and 2) knew she was planning on selling the team in the future and didn’t want to give Johnson the longer term contract he was looking for
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Mar 19, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

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