Could Chris Paul be available?

Through his first 5 seasons, Billups had a PER of 15 to Stuckey’s 14.9

I feel like you’re disregarding key statistical categories that support that level of confidence.

The problem is that there is no conclusive, statistically-matched manner to compare the two players early in their career. There is a systemic bias against Chauncey in such comparisons, exemplified by a) environmental factors such as the lockout of 98 and subsequent injuries, b) usage statistics such as usage rates and minutes per game averages. To ignore these factors and only to look at seasonal averages in three or even five years is to make a biased assumption in favor of Rodney.

If you don’t utilize on seasonal averages in primary statistical categories to draw comparisons between two players then what do you use Payne (asking with some attitude but generally interested in what you would use instead)?

You don’t use seasonal averages until the minutes played and usage rates match-up. I’ll explain the real world significance of this in a minute, but for now, the math:

This season, Rodney’s third season, he is recording a usage rate of 26.3%. Chauncey’s usage rate was right around 20% until he arrived in Detroit in his 6th season, when it jumped to 24.1%.

Rodney is averaging 35.4 minutes per game this season. Chauncey averaged less than 30 his entire career before coming to Detroit, and in his second year with the team (7th career season), he averaged the same 35.4 minutes per game.

In terms of minutes played and usage rate, Chauncey’s 7th season was most similar to Rodney’s 3rd. Here’s a comparison of those seasons.

Why is this significant? In Rodney’s sophomore season, he was made the key playmaker and given his chance to shine. In his 3rd, he was “the man” on this team, logging a rather ridiculous usage rate for a player of his production.

Chauncey, on the other hand, was not given full starters minutes and command of a team until arriving in Detroit, and he didn’t come into this role until his second year in charge.

So back to your question:

If you don’t utilize on seasonal averages in primary statistical categories to draw comparisons between two players then what do you use Payne

You don’t use anything. You cannot compare their early seasons. Rodney has been playing at full capacity for nearly two full seasons, and Chauncey wasn’t used even close to capacity until his second year in Detroit. There is no favorable statistic to compare the two until their usage rates and minutes played match.

based on where he currently is in his career, we should be confident that he can be just as good as Billups.

Suggesting this with statistics is a flawed argument. You’re better off comparing Rodney to a player of a similar usage and mp rate early in his career.

Stuckey needs to learn that move Billups used to do, where he’d pump fake and somehow get the defender behind him, riding his back. Keeping his dribble, he (fairly slowly and methodically) make his way towards the nearest elbow, pump fake again to get the defender in the air, draw the foul by contorting his body as the defender bumped him from behind a little tiny bit, and still drain the jumper. That’s a good move.

There’s an assumption you seem to be making that I’m not necessarily buying: that Stuckey can and will become a better shooter, and when he does, he could approximate something like CB did in Detroit. Rip seems to be the example you’re using.

However, there’s a key difference between Rip and Stuckey, namely, that Rip is an effective mid-range player. So, in order for him to become a better 3PT shooter, Rip merely had to extend his range. (and if khandor were listening, I’d mention that Rip also developed a set shot from distance while employing a jump shot at mid range).

By contrast, Stuckey is a craptacular shooter from everywhere. He is a horrid mid range shooter, and he’s not improving. It seems unlikely that he will become even an average 3PT shooter until he can fix his mid range game.

One of the key reasons that Billups is so much more effective than Rodney is because he scores a lot more points per possession used, and he does so because he’s a much, much better 3PT shooter, and he’s a better FT shooter. If Rodney doesn’t make dramatic improvements in his shooting over the summer and into next season, he simply won’t make the jump to the “next level” (as cliche as that sounds).