Reasons To Get Drunk and Surly Tonight - 1st Round Edition
by Kevin Sawyer on Apr 22, 2010 8:10 PM EDT
Email
PrintI drafted the second half of my first round predictions, then realized, come Monday, that I had failed to post them, by which point the whole enterprise would have been a bit post-modern. Sorry about that. I'll be on the ball for round two.
But now is not the time for recriminations. Now is the time to drink wine from juice boxes and regret nothing!
------------
Came across an article on 82games citing the predicted value for each draft pick, based on historical models. The article features a handy chart, featuring the best picks and median picks for each draft slot. For pick #7:
Best picks: Kevin Johnson, Alvin Robertson
Median picks: Quintin Dailey, Roy Tarpley
How about pick #3?
Best picks: Michael Jordan, Grant Hill
Median picks: Kevin McHale, Charles Smith
In other words, pray for lottery balls.
------------
Last night, San Antonio grabbed a road game in their series against Dallas. I think the Spurs are likely to advance, which will bring about the inevitable "Dirk Nowitzki doesn't know how to win" narrative.
This is depressingly absurd, of course, but has Mark Cuban been hearing it enough that he might have a change of heart regarding his superstar? You know some of the metrics types have to be salivating. Dirk's skills will age nicely into his mid-30s, and he is far better than anyone thinks he is.
------------
Full disclosure: I am openly rooting for the Nuggets. So Suh me.
I was disappointed when they dropped game two at home. I had predicted that, given the strong home records of both teams, the home court advantage would largely hold.
At ESPN, John Hollinger made the point that the both teams have strong home records on account of their altitude and isolation. As such, since both teams play at similar altitudes, and are relatively close to each other, the home court advantage is minimized.
I hadn't thought of that, nor had I considered the consequence of this logic. I have casually observed an especial home-court benefit for high-altitude teams, but doesn't that also mean that Utah and Denver should post a better record than other teams in the league?
If so, how many games does this advantage mean? Has a study been done on this issue?
------------
So, Kevin Garnett gets suspended, and the Celtics blow Miami out of the water? Is this a typical Celtics early start, or is Boston a different team? We'll find out in game three.
------------
Ndamukong Suh used the word "collaboration" in his post draft speech. He's an instant star. I hope nobody ever nicknames him, so announcers have to call him by his full name every time. Donkey Kong is obvious and dumb. Don't do it.
Oh, basketball, right...
------------
So, the NCAA Tournament is expanding... To 68 teams. So what was with all that 96 team talk? Was that just a Trojan Horse to sell an expansion that would otherwise have been unpopular? Is 96 teams the new Harriet Miers?
If so, I find this unnecessary. The expansion of the tournament to four channels (nice move Turner Broadcasting) is sufficient to generate excitement.
Still. Credit where credit is due. Nice play, NCAA.
------------
Get it on in the comments section!
72 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'd rather get drunk and Suh-ly
Oh!
Detroit Bad Boys- SB Nation's Detroit Pistons Blog
Twitter
by Packey on Apr 22, 2010 8:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
OH MY GOD.
LeBron just got called for an offensive foul when he tried to ram his way through Luol Deng. Just over a minute left and teh Bulls up by 6. That ref is going to get an earful from Stern tonight.
Indeed
That’s the sort of ending kids imagine when they are playing at a basketball hoop by themselves.
by Kevin Sawyer on Apr 22, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
KEVIN FUCKING DURANT.
I just wanted to say that. I hope someone else out there in internetland is watching this shit. If he’s not the best player in the league already, he will be soon. I know that I personally am taking Durant over anybody else in this league if I’m starting a team today, and don’t even bat an eyelash when I say that. Jesus. H. Christ.
Through 3 quarters (and having an extremely off shooting night):
17pts, 17rbds, 4asts
Whatever you need, he’s got it. The Blazers have to cry themselves to sleep nightly.
shaping up to be a ridiculous end. great run by OKC
by the89oracle on Apr 22, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
absolutely. he’s hit some crazy shots, but the lakers keep draining treys to stay in it
by the89oracle on Apr 23, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Ben Wallace Jr.
He’s the reason we need to do whatever we have to to get Varnado in the last first/early second round. Varnado’s the same player except maybe an inch taller and with college pedigree to prove what he can do— and as the scouts always say, blocked shots and rebounding are the two college stats that most readily translate to the pros.
I like the cut of your jib, sir. Draft that guy!
by garrettelliott on Apr 23, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, grab Varnado the Tarnado
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
FUCK YES!
the other day my buddy kept saying “stones need to pick up dexter pitmann in the 2nd round”, it got to a point where it was annoying me so i gave him a “cup of soup” (fart in your hand and cup it, then shove it at their nose and release the beauty) and said “varnado”. i then ran away because he looked like the fucking hulk and started chasing me! :o(
better than Bron's
It’s funny, for a guy of his stature, he really isn’t a good rebounder. I remember the announcers of the Denver game mentioning that his assist and rebound career highs are both at 15. Which he had by the 4th quarter. Sadly for him, he went into “show off my big chin” mode and ended up scoring a few more points, but costing his team the game in 2OT because he refused to do anything but shot
by bearded thundar on Apr 23, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe 5. Durant’s currently on par with James as far as scoring and rebounding goes. However, James is a better defender and much better passer. Durant will have to make a big leap to close the gap.
Durant is already a better rebounder than Bron. Not only did he get more, but he does it with fundamentals, where as Bron only gets them through brute force. That’s why LeBigchin is only getting 7 boards per 40, where as Gerald Wallace is getting 11. Not to mention, James is probably just as tall, if not taller than Big Ben, who grabbed 15 boards per game one year. It’s not like Ben was more athletic then than LB is now, it all comes down to effort and fundamentals.
by bearded thundar on Apr 24, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s about effort or fundamentals, it’s that Durant is looking more and more like a Super-Dirk, an amazingly efficient scoring PF, while Lebron is the best point-forward since Magic.
Their rebound % was for all practical purposes exactly the same this season (Lebron’s was 0.01% higher). But Lebron has improved his rebounding a lot, and at Durant’s current age, Lebron wasn’t as good a rebounder. But Lebron’s ‘pure point rating’ was well over 5 this season, which I can’t see Durant ever coming close to matching (Durant has never had an ast/to ratio over 1.0, while Lebron’s ratio has been over 2.0 five times in his seven years, and has never been below 1.7).
Durant is taller and longer- his standing reach is 9’2" (which is longer that the average NBA center’s standing reach), over 3.5 inches taller than Lebron’s. There’s significant differences in their games, and their builds, they’re both amazing players, neither is overrated (i.e. not Kobe v. Lebron), calling one better than the other… it’s usually going to come down to nit picking.
If OKC can take down the Lakers, the world will be a better place.
by Gabe F-B on Apr 23, 2010 8:02 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Interesting take on the Nuggets/Jazz game 2
I thought that the replacement guys were the x-factor in that game if home court is moot. Fesenko’s huge. He looks like if Okur ate Boozer. All teams seem to have trouble when their opponents give big playoff minutes to guys who have been riding the pine all season. I’m thinking Prince on McGrady and Stuckey vs. the Magic. Williams has always had Chaunce’s number, too. Beyond that, I think they were just prepared to see Boozer, Kirilenko, and Okur and not the D-League All-Stars.
This Phoenix Portland game is the worst officiated game i’ve ever seen in my life. Bad for both sides.
perhaps
But that was more entertaining than watching Brad Thomas pitch even worse than Willis. Why that guy got the nod with a career era above 9 is beyond me, just more to show that Old Smokey is an overrated manager
by bearded thundar on Apr 24, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you imagine the Thunder
with Arron Afflalo at the 2 instead of Sefolosha? Sefolosha is essentially a poor man’s Afflalo, a defensive-minded two but without the perimeter game. If OKC can get their hands on a stud PF (Bosh, et. al.) this year, and if they could get Afflalo in the starting lineup…
Westbrook
Afflalo
Durant
Bosh
Krzsdxtick
Nasty.
DeMarcus Cousins stole your lunch money.
Lakers -OKC
Was it weird of me to stay up and watch the 4th quarter of a game which at that point was not in doubt just to see the Lakers get crushed?
More seriously, is there a real chance OKC can win the series — hey, they’re younger, maybe more athletic, seemingly hungrier — or is LA going to “wake up,” or at least win all their home games?
I can't call it.
It could go either way. Lakers really have their hands full w/Durant & Co.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
It boils down to Westbrook and Bynum. They both have big mismatches at their respective positions, whoever does a better job of using it will win the series. I’m willing to bet Kobe has a huge game 5 (which should negate Durant’s scoring, though Durant is more efficient), that was just strange the way he wasn’t shooting when they needed a lot of points.
by bearded thundar on Apr 25, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i think the lakers are still going to win. okc is playing over their heads right now. i will be shocked if the lakers lose. remember the rockets series last year, they gave lal a run for their money but eventually the lakers prevailed. i would expect the same this series.
Logic would suggest playoff/NBA champs take it
but it’s not certain, which is the reason to watch.
I’m surprised OKC has made it this far, it’s been fun.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
Laker still win
It’s basically best out of three now, with two games in LA. I’m impressed with how well the Thunder have played, though.
its definitely been the best series so far that of the games ive seen. the jazz/nugs has been pretty good too. i wish i would have seen the blazers games last night. roy made a come back huh? did he look good?
I caught the end of the game and he didn’t look great, but I’m sure just his presence on the court had an impact. He said he woke up from his surgery and said, “This feels great!” and was good to go.
by garrettelliott on Apr 25, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Viva La Roy
he came back super quick from the injury, I’m sure just to fire up his teammates… a couple of those PHX games were not pretty.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
Spurs are trying to kill me.
Delicious game, bunch of runs, defense, physicality and flagrants.
Where in the world is Cheikh Samb?
That was a great fracking game. Maybe my favorite of the playoffs so far. Both teams wanted it badly.
I’m rooting for the Spurs, but also pretty bummed that the Mavs won’t have a chance to go up against the Lakers, I’m convinced that would be an amazing series. Dirk in the playoffs = impossible match-up.
Chauncey has to step up but he never does in the playoffs…I guess Denver is finally seeing some of his biggest flaws.
I love the dude
but yeah, he can be awesome in the regular season and disappointing in the playoffs.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
not much of a surprise
he’s playing well offensively, but dude can’t defend bigger guards— it’s always been his achilles heel. give him chris paul or jameer nelson, he’s the shit. put him on a PG with size, his position becomes a wash at best.
Lobby for a non-Piston to come to our team? Bitches get catty.
you know what's interesting?
Stephen Curry OWNED Williams in their matchups this year. Totally crazy. He shot a combined 25% average against Curry in three games this year. Small sample size, but interesting nonetheless. I think it’s a fluke (as high as I am on Curry), but I was surprised by how that played out this year. It’ll be interesting to see if it continues, then to try and figure out why it is happening.
Lobby for a non-Piston to come to our team? Bitches get catty.
that's the plan in Oakland
although Ellis’ salary will be difficult to move.
OKC v. ATL finals? The dream looks less crazy now.
plus he's an asshole.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
agreed
although he might be less of an asshole if I knew which model moped he was riding. if it was a vintage ped, i’d have to respect dude a bit more than I do now…
OKC v. ATL finals? The dream looks less crazy now.
excellent point.
it was probably a 250 w/ a stereo so he could get it hyphy out there in the bay.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
+1
He is what he is; big strengths- super efficient scoring pg, but also some weaknesses that need to be masked by teammates and schemes. IMO, he’s still good enough to be one of the three best players on a championship contender, but right now the Nugs just don’t have the horses, especially in the frontcourt- Martin looks just about done to me, and Birdman isn’t far behind.
On the other hand
The Jazz will never get shit accomplished either.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
So, about that San Antonio bashing from a few threads ago...
Okay, bashing is overstating it, I realize.
But this series demonstrates that a healthy Spurs team is a dangerous one.
I heard a stat on TV during the last game — Duncan average 31 minutes per this season. He’s playing 40+ in the Playoffs. That explains the drop in averages, but it keeps him fresh. Nice job, Pop. There’s your dark horse in the West.
Agreed
I never bashed, but I did accuse them of not having what it takes to get deep into the playoffs.
Wrong
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
Yeah, they’re really playing like a bunch of young’uns right now!
by garrettelliott on Apr 27, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I honestly don't think there is a dark horse in the west...
Only 7 games separates the 8 seed from the 1 seed and the bottom 3 seeds are all 50-32.
If anything I see only two teams that I would completely rule out from winning the West and that’s Portland and Denver. I might put Dallas in there as well.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the other 5 teams make it out of the West.
The east on the other hand is realistically Cleveland or Orlando with Boston being the longshot but still possible.
Playoffs are shaping up to be pretty freaking sweet.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Detroit Bad Boys
Related FanShots on Detroit Bad Boys
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
