Reasons to Get Drunk and Surly Tonight - Draft Speculation
by Kevin Sawyer on May 23, 2010 9:23 PM EDT
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PrintHardly surprised to hear this news. The Pistons lead off today's ESPN rumors with their reported interest in moving up to take DeMarcus Cousins. As I mentioned, the Timberwolves are in an ideal spot to draft Cousins, but are unlikely to do so given their shaky draft history and Cousins' spotty reputation.
I like that Joe D. is floating the idea in the press. The Timberwolves seem to be pursuing a potentially disastrous course (see below), and Dumars should let them know they have options that can, you know, help their team.
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Also interested in the T-Wolves' pick (per the same source) are the Trailblazers. They're MIT, so you know they're high on Cousins. You would have to assume they'd dangle LaMarcus Aldridge and the 22 pick. Not sure what problem that solves for the Wolves, but when have they been known to have any interest in solving problems?
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The 76ers are using their #2 pick to try to trap a team into taking Elton Brand's albatract. Some team will probably bite on this, but I question the sense of it. High draft picks are important, not only because you get an ostensibly great player, but also because you get that player at a bargain.
By taking on Brand's contract, a team is basically signing their lottery pick to a max contract. Given that the player selected is unlikely to emerge as a star until his third season, that is grossly overpaying. Of the players selected in the top three over the last ten years, only LeBron James and Kevin Durant would have justified such an expenditure.
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All this is perfect timing, since DeMarcus Cousins predictably tops John Hollinger's scarily accurate draft player rater.
John Wall and Evan Turner round out the top three, though Turner in particular seems a bit low at 14.8. Given his age (a ripe old 21), that should be cause for teams to reconsider taking on Elton Brand to move up the the #2 spot.
The statistical gods smile upon Al-Farouq Aminu and Greg Monroe, two players the Pistons will consider should they keep the #7 slot. The rater hates Cole Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh and Ed Davis, however, projecting Aldrich and Udoh as fringe rotation players and Davis an absolute dud.
Based on my observation, the player rater tends to undervalue players on stacked teams (like Derrick Rose and Charlie V.), so Aldrich might still be okay. I believe Ekpe Udoh will be the Rafael Araujo of this year's draft. The love for Ed Davis confuses me, but I think some general managers actually like it when players don't accomplish anything (see: Rubio, Ricky).
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Hey, ESPN Classic is airing an old Lakers-Suns playoff series. What? The season is still going? I thought Rajon Rondo had already single-handedly won the championship. Huh.
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That's Cajun Joe, always with a trick up his sleeve
If Joe can make Cousins seem like he has more value by floating the rumor that we want to trade up to get him, maybe tweedle dee or dum ahead of us will take Cousins and pass on Monroe.
Seems like a logical move, especially if he can talk to some potential suitors about taking rip off our hands along the way.
But after this season
I don’t think Dumars wanting a guy will make him more appealing.
Where in the world is Cheikh Samb?
He does have the trophy for sportsmanship, perhaps his vouching for someone might mean something. They usually give out too many hints about anything the pistons do, so this seems to me like its out of character.
Ummm...
Compare him to Martin Mayhew…who keeps up the poker face, both are pretty effective (and you know something, WCF may finally have lucked himself into a competent GM, I like Mayhew’s style so far). You think other GMs like dealing with Dumars, who pretty much built the ‘04-’05 team by theft. Both do misdirection very well, just by different styles.
by V. on May 24, 2010 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Rock/Paper/Scissors, NBA-Style
or, should I say, Celts/Cavs/Magic?
by V. on May 24, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
im not longer on the aldrich bandwagon, ran into some bad news just now
Maxiell and I once shared a box of baby-ohs for breakfast.
If The Wizards Pass On Wall
..and it’s not a lock they pick him, I’d trade for the #2 and Brand in a heartbeat. Brand is overpaid a bit, but I can defend him…he just is a lousy fit for the Philly system. He would do very well in Detroit., and a Dumars-type of player, high BB IQ, high character. Remember, this guy was an All Star for the Clippees.
It just become a question how badly Philly wants to unload his deal…would Rip or Tay and Max and the #7 be enough to get Wall and Brand? I’m not that good at analyzing the contract fit, but maybe someone can come up with something that looks more equitable.
For #2 Pick
I would trade rip and the 7th pick for brand and the 2nd pick. It is a win win because we can exchange bad contracts with the potential of letting brand start at PF and pick Cousins to play C. Start Ben Gordon at SG Stuckey at PG and platoon Prince and Villanueva at SF.
I Think It Would Be Tay, Not Rip
Because he’s expiring, and Philly wants to unload salary. Only advantage for Philly to acquire Rip is that he’s a homeboy, and can sell tickets. If you gave Philly a choice, I think they’d prefer Tay.
by V. on May 24, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I would never ever ever
play Charlie Villanueva at the 3. If his defense is as bad as it is against slower PFs, just try to imagine what it would be like when he had to guard Lebron or Durant or Granger? It would be a joke.
If we’re doing that then we might as well move Daye as well in hopes of getting a backup PG somehow and put Prince and Jerebko at the SF with Ben Wallace and CV as our backups in the frontcourt.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on May 24, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
The 76ers are using their #2 pick to try to trap a team into taking Elton Brand’s albatract. Some team will probably bite on this, but I question the sense of it. High draft picks are important, not only because you get an ostensibly great player, but also because you get that player at a bargain.
Look at it this way Kevin, if you get Brand, you have a PF that will at worst help stretch the floor and then become a massive expiring contract. Brand is due to make $18 mil in his final year, more than say Pau Gasol is making right now. There will always be a team looking to move a good player for financial relief with the current economy, trading for Brand could not only net us a franchise center right now, but also give us the means to get another cornerstone in the future.
by bearded thundar on May 24, 2010 9:39 AM EDT reply actions
Yup.
In complete agreement with this.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on May 24, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
If you get Brand
At worst, you get a guy who continues to get injured and decline. At BEST, you get what you describe.
Of the teams in the lottery, I think the Pistons are the ones who would benefit most from this move. If Brand can be a nominally above-average PF, and they can draft Cousins, you can make the case that this will be a 50 win team in two years. You can’t say that for Minnesota + Turner.
by Kevin Sawyer on May 24, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
that's not true
Brand showed flashes of his past last year. With Kander around, I’m sure we could get at least 20 minutes a game out of him.
And that’s why I say we do it. If Brand is somewhat decent, we’re at least .500. If he’s revived, we’re a 50 win team. If not, we trade him as a salary dump and bring in a legitimate star.
by bearded thundar on May 24, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Who proposed this trade? It's a winner for both sides, IME.
Tay + #7 + filler (?) for Brand +#2.
To me, it seems like a win win. Anyone know any Philly bloggers to whom we could propose the idea?
We get a beast at C, an overpaid but serviceable PF (the price you pay for a franchise C in this case). Philly gets lots of salary relief, both in terms of dumping Brand’s contract AND Tay’s expiring, plus they get a young, cheap guy who may produce even more than Brand did.
I mentioned that in the Fanshot on the same topic
I can’t see any way Joe shouldn’t at least try and make it happen. I’d be thrilled if they’d take Tay and Max. Max would be expendable and it would get us out of his contract. If we couldn’t move at least some longer contract while making his happen, then we would butting right up to the tax until we moved Brand, Rip, or Gordon.
Do we need to include Max to get the deal done? I’m guessing they’d prefer Wilcox over Max. Contracts are roughly the same. I’d do it either way.
No
Wilcox or Max would work. And, I’d do it either way too. Just taking on so much long-term salary is scary for obvious reaons, and if they took Max they would at least ease the pain.
By the same token, either way we would be left with CV, Wallace(assumming), and Draft along with Max or Wilcox for bigs. If you look at it that way, keeping Max wouldn’t be so bad.
In addition to Brand, that is...
Obviously Max >>> Wilcox. If we could still move Rip for a PG, that team should make the playoffs if Brand can stay relatively healthy. And, in a couple years there would be tremendous flexibility with Brand’s expiring and hopefully improvement by the young players.
I'll take credit for it
I think my Brand + #2 trade originally included Rip and Max though instead which obviously isn’t as appealing as Tay + filler…
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
I Did
I don’t usually propose trades..most are pretty laughable imho…but this one did seem to make some sense.
by V. on May 25, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
too late
I already took credit for it. :-)
Hey SBN two things you need to add:
Use of emoticons
Ability to view who rec’d yer shit
Love always,
The Boourns
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on May 25, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, Terry Foster Scooped Both Of Us...
but you can have credit for it…it’s pretty logical
by V. on May 27, 2010 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions
…John Hollinger’s scarily accurate draft player rater.
The statistical gods smile upon Al-Farouq Aminu and Greg Monroe
The rater hates Cole Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh and Ed Davis, however, projecting Aldrich and Udoh as fringe rotation players and Davis an absolute dud.
Hollinger’s “system” is a crock of s***.
Just for kicks, here’s Hollinger’s top 5 from 2008:
Michael Beasley 19.19 Kansas State
Kevin Love 17.80 UCLA
Darrell Arthur 15.82 Kansas
Marreese Speights 15.02 Florida
D.J. Augustin 14.88 Texas
…and as a bonus: the same year, Hollinger rated Joe Alexander higher than Brook Lopez.
Anyone with an interest and tiny bit of experience with stats can see that guys who put up numbers like Lawson, Griffin, Blair, Evans are very good prospects. It’s not rocket science.
Hollinger is just doing what he always does; copying and re-labeling something that several people have done before him (and done better), then calling it news (while making sure to describe it as “startling”).
If you cherry pick the most inaccurate picks
You can make any system look like a crock.
That said, Love and Speights have both played extremely well. In Beasley’s case, a computerized system cannot predict an off-season of drug abuse. He projected Augustin’s rookie year PER within 7/100ths of a point.
Not sure what is up with Arthur, because he has now revised the score to 12.8. I’m guessing that means that, given the new data he has, his projection would have been revised downward. Given that it’s a new system, that’s not surprising.
As for Lawson, apparently it was rocket science to the 17 teams who passed him up.
The system does usually identify players to avoid, and Udoh and Davis look like players to avoid all the way around.
Citing Hollinger’s top 5 is hardly cherry picking. Love is awesome. Speights is terrible at everything except taking shots (not so much making them), but that happens to be the most highly rewarded “skill” with Hollinger’s metric. Arthur and Augustin both suck. So to be charitable, Hollinger missed clean on 3/5 of his top 5 and Beasley we can chart up to bad luck.
Not sure what is up with Arthur, because he has now revised the score to 12.8.
I get Hollinger is still tinkering, but doesn’t this feel like him retroactively re-fitting his system so that it doesn’t make his past crappy picks look bad?
Not if he is applying the same system to every player. K-Love was brought down to 14.6
Speights has a solid TS% for a prolific shooter, which is why he is able to score so frequently. Augustin had a solid rookie season. Not sure a computerized system could predict a Larry Brown soul crushing.
Has any player failed to crack 11.0 on the player rater and wound up being a dependable starter?
One thing that may factor in the draft is the salary cap.
I’m sure there are a few teams, the Thunder, Nets and Timberwolves in particular, that will be eager to trade some of their first round picks to maximize their salary cap as much as possible. Joe may be able to parlay this and next year’s second rounders into a late first round pick.
Or, these teams may purposefully reach on a couple Euro projects (like Ryan Richards) so they can stash them overseas and not have them count against the cap right away. Some American big men may drop as a result.
highly doubt the Nets do that
They are just awful right now, and those draft picks would go a long way towards getting LeBron.
Minnesota could be a different situation, not because of cap space, but because I don’t know how they could fit an additional 5 or players on their roster. We might be able to either snag their second rounders essentially for free or perhaps trade up into the first round in exchange for our second and cash.
As for the Thunder, I’m not sure what they do. Having all these young players is great now, but could be a real issue in a few years when all of them need new big deals
by bearded thundar on May 24, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Minnesota talk and Brand
I am hopeful that Joe has something akin to the 7 and Rip or Tay for Brand and 2 in mind, and I think that is exactly why the Minnesota rumor got floated.
As has been discussed it only makes sense for the Minn rumor to be in the press if Joe has some sort of gamesmanship in mind. It’s possible that he is trying to put his stamp of approval on a troubled player, but all that could possibly accomplish is to increase the value of a guy who very likely won’t be around when we draft anyway. I think a more plausible explanation is that Joe would like to move up to Philly’s pick but wants to let Philly know that he isnt desperate and is more than willing to pull a deal with Minn. that still gets him what he wants.
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