Teams Celebrate Independence by Shackling Themselves to Contracts
by Kevin Sawyer on Jul 3, 2010 7:17 PM EDT
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PrintFree agency has been a stunner thus far. I have been surprised by the amount of action with second and third tier free agents. Teams aren't waiting for dominoes to fall, and some* will be rewarded for that. The market is only bound to heat up, as teams, flush with cash and exceptions, feel compelled to pick up weaker and weaker pieces.
What does that mean for the Pistons? It means they should be very cautious with their MLE. Remember, an MLE contract can represent a $30+ million commitment over as many as five years. A player like Brendan Haywood would be an obvious choice in any other year, but now looks to be in good shape to get a deal in the $50 million range.
Frankly, it reminds me of 2000, when teams fell over themselves to offer huge contracts to the likes of Jalen Rose and Tim Thomas (the Pistons were one of those teams, as you might recall... Dodged a bullet).
With reports of signings and verbal agreements coming in, I'll be grading individual deals as they come into focus.
Here's where we are at to date.
Joe Johnson - SG
Hawks: 6 yrs. $119 million
Grade: F
Apparently, Johnson has yet to take the offer, but it's more than any other team can (or would) offer. At this point he's probably angling for a sign and trade, but I can't see Johnson turning down that kind of scratch.
As for the signing itself, we knew before the off-season began that whichever team threw big money at Johnson would be stuck with one of the worst contracts in the league. This contract will pay him until he is 34 years old, and he is already a pretty lousy defender.
Some team is going to get Josh Childress, who is a better player and two years younger, for half the cost at fewer years. That's how bad this signing is.
Rudy Gay - SF
Grizzlies: 5 yrs. $82 million
Grade: D
Again, we knew someone was going to get stuck with the Gay boobie prize. I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised that team is the Grizzlies. Didn't they give up Pau Gasol in one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history in order to cut salary?
Gay has been consistently average since joining the league. His value is driven by the misperception that he is likely to bud into a bigger star. At age 23, that is pretty unlikely, especially since he is staying put.
The best thing you can say for this contract is that, for what it's worth, the Grizz will be getting the Rudy Gay in his prime years.
Steve Blake - PG
Lakers: 4 yrs. $16 Million
Grade: C+
The Lakers obviously want to upgrade at the point guard position, but I'm not sure they have done so. Mostly, they have just traded defense (Derek Fisher) for offense (Blake). At 30, Blake is hardly a likely candidate for a defensive renaissance, though if he shoots 43% from the three point line, that might not matter.
I question the contract length here, but it's probably reasonable to assume Blake was going to receive multiple offers. I just wonder if they wouldn't have been better off sticking with Fisher for one more year and exploring greener pastures next summer. But with other teams looking to siphon his (apocryphal) championship mojo, that might not have been an option.
Channing Frye - FC
Suns: 5 yrs. $30 million
Grade: B
Frye was a revelation last year for the Suns, who need someone to step into a full time frount court role. Frye has been uneven throughout his career, but his price seems to reflect that. Any guy who can play center and can hit 40% from three point range is going to get $6 million per, and at 26, Frye should provide maximum value throughout the life of the contract.
Hakim Warrick - PF
Suns: 4 yrs. $16-18 million
Grade: A-
The other shoe to drop in the Amare departure. Warrick is a great pickup at this price, and should be a great fit in the Suns upscale system. Warrick must get under the skin of coaches, because he has been almost criminally underutilized while playing for mediocre teams. He'll fight Robin Lopez and Channing Frye for minutes, but there should be enough to go around.
John Salmons - SG
Bucks: 5 yrs. $39 million
Grade: C-
Salmons parlayed a very solid 30 game stint with the Bucks into a nice fat contract that should take him into retirement. Obvously, the Bucks are in "win now" mode, and Salmons was a crucial part of their surprising season. Still, Salmons has been a remarkably average player for most of his career, and will turn 31 next season. This strikes me as an example of a player getting paid based on points scored, and not on overall contribution.
Drew Gooden - PF
Bucks: 5 yrs. $32 million
Grade: B
Everyone seems to hate this one, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Drew Gooden is an odd cat, but he has been consistently above average for several years now. He is a good rebounder and mid-range shooter. Further, the Bucks will like play it very cautious with Andrew Bogut, and Gooden can step in and play big minutes in the front court.
Combined with the Maggette trade, it is clear that the Bucks are thinking they can sneak into the Eastern Conference mix. They might be right. Any team that hits the free agency jackpot may well need a year to build a functioning roster around their newly acquired stars.
Nikolas Pekovic - F
Timberwolves: 3 yrs. $13 million
Grade: B-
Apparently, they guy is a quality player, but this still seems like $2-3 million too much. That said, this is easily the least stupid of the Timberwolves' two offseason moves. If the Timberwolves are intent on moving Al Jefferson, Pekovic might give them an insurance policy.
Darko Milicic - FC
Timberwolves: 4 yrs. $20 million
Grade: F
This might be a forgivable offense if the T-Wolves were over the cap, and only able to resign their own players. Why Darko? Why now? Who was bidding for his services? How does this help Minnesota win games? KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHN!
Paul Pierce - SF
Celtics: 4 yrs. $61 million
Grade: B-
This is more than Pierce is worth in a vacuum, but his departure would throw the Celtics into a rebuilding period just one year after they made game seven of the championship series. Pierce held all the strings, and will almost certainly retire a life-long Celtic.
Amir Johnson - FC
Raptors: 5 yrs. $34 million
Grade: C
The most snicker-inducing contract this offseason is far from the worse. On a per-minute basis, this represents outstanding value. The problem is that fouls limit the number of minutes Amir can play.
Still, he's 22, and he only fouled out once last season in 82 games. The Raptors are almost certainly hoping he can stay on the court long enough to replace Bosh's minutes. If he can, this contract might look like a steal. Still, it's tough to discern why the Raps felt compelled to put forward such a generous offer.
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If Johnson takes the deal
I’d say it’s an F- – - – - – - – for Atlanta. Johnson is overrated now, and he’ll decline pretty rapidly over the next couple years. This deal will make the one Rashard Lewis got look reasonable.
"Wait a minute! That's insane! They're total liars. I kept my mouth shut when Dean said he could read Sanskrit, and when Hank said he wanted a piece of him, I was like 'Fine. Whatever.', but Mecha-Shiva? No way! They are so lying, I'm innocent!"
-The Monarch
Honestly, I'm encouraged
The more this goes on, the more pre-existing bad contracts look better (ie, Rip Hamilton). There are more dollars floating around the league than there are players worthy of max contracts. Once the dust settles and the biggest names are snatched up, some teams are inevitably going to be left with roster spots to fill and the money to take on less-than-ideal contracts. It wouldn’t surprise me if we traded Rip by the end of the summer.
Especially when you consider
most of them are for 5 years and rip’s got 2-3 years left on his contract…of course with all the top overrated/normally rated players signing giant contracts, are we really going to want to trade for any of them anyways?
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Derek Fisher is a good defender?
My impression is that he gets lit up by speedy point guards, but is solid guarding stronger guards a la Chauncey Billups. Could be wrong, but that one surprised me.
Yeah, he's not quick enough to be much of a defender anymore
"Wait a minute! That's insane! They're total liars. I kept my mouth shut when Dean said he could read Sanskrit, and when Hank said he wanted a piece of him, I was like 'Fine. Whatever.', but Mecha-Shiva? No way! They are so lying, I'm innocent!"
-The Monarch
He still seems to manage to draw 10 bazillion charges per game some how.
by garrettelliott on Jul 4, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
as in
That dunk was so nasty it was down right both offensive and quite foul
by bearded thundar on Jul 4, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think the Blake deal isn't bad
Blake will probably help the Lakers win another title, and $4 million a year isn’t a lot for a backup point guard who can shoot the three. I wonder what we’ll end up paying to keep Bynum? I’d be happy if we just sign Will and Ben and hold on to our cash this year. If we can make a good trade that improves the team that’s okay. Otherwise let the young guys develop and look forward to next year when lots of guys will be available and Prince’s contract comes off the books.
Funny, But True Caption Kevin
First, you can’t say Joe D isn’t a smart shopper. The BG and CV31 contracts look pretty good now. Read on if you still have doubts.
I wouldn’t mind Childress. Hey, we have Greektown in Detroit, that should be a good enough inducement, and would assist us in our goal of starting 5 SFs.
I actually don’t think the Darko signing is that bad. We know Darko has talent, but is immature and has questionable heart. Maybe he’ll grow up and give the TWolves some value. OTOH…DKIAFI lol, but he’s Minnesota’s idiot
I dunno about the Gooden and Amir signings…two guys with low BB IQ and you throw that kind of money at them? And John Salmons, $8M/yr?
Lockout on its way
This insanity should pretty much ensure that we aren’t getting a new CBA. Make sure and DVR this season’s games so they can carry you through 2011-2012.
I hate almost all of these moves...
Steve Blake is a good fit for the Lakers.
And Amir Johnson is a solid role player that still has time to develop into a little more.
I remember thinking Pekovic looked really good when he was drafted.
Although, Boston probably should have used the cap space to rebuild, I can understand why they showed loyalty to Pierce.
But…
Joe Johnson – awful
Rudy Gay – awful
Channing Frye – awful
Hakim Warrick – awful (isn’t Earl Clark the same player?)
Drew Gooden – okay (but I would’ve saved up for Michael Redd’s cap space
Darko Milicic – headscratcher
channing frye and hakim warrick
aweful? their production is technically on par with their new compensation. per minute, they are average or slightly below average players, and their contracts are even more below average. economically, phoenix is likely to get greater production than payout on those contracts.
witty signature
Frye can't guard ANYBODY
He’ll never be anything more than a bench player that knocks down open shots. He’s a glorified Donyell Marshall or Tim Thomas. Plug anyone in there next to Nash and you’ll get the same results.
My problem with Warrick is that they’ve basically admitted Earl Clark blows. Warrick is probably a decent, low cost replacement for Stoudamire. Nash will make him look like an All-Star and, like Stat, he’ll get killed on defense.
by Quick Darshan on Jul 4, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
That doesn’t quite explain why they’re awful contracts. They’re players of slightly below average production who received more than below average contracts. If they maintain their career production numbers, Phoenix will get more out of those players than they paid for. It doesn’t matter if you like the players or you love them, but the contracts themselves are both, actually, pretty solid.
Also, Frye’s defensive issues have a lot to do with his apositionality. Quick forwards and big centers give him problems, some of which can be minimized if his match-ups are managed by Alvin Gentry. Big center? Use Lopez. Fast forward? Use Warrick.
Last, assuming Frye will crack 30 mpg this season (up from 27 last year), expect him to record a steal and a block per game.
witty signature
Loaded question
is loaded.
Should a bad 13 game streak define a player? (this is also a loaded question)
My point of disagreement isn’t about whether Frye is or is not a good player, it is that his contract is far from “awful”.
witty signature
A good playoff team will completely take him out of a game on offense and abuse him on the other end. Ideally, he’s the 4th big in a rotation.
Looking again at the Warrick signing, you’re right. He’s a good value. I can’t see Frye being more than a one=dimensional backup who’s greatest skill can be matched nowadays by other big men with the opportunity to play with Steve Nash.
by Quick Darshan on Jul 4, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what good playoff teams do
They take players out of games. On average, however, Frye has been taken out of games less frequently than the average big. Good playoff teams reside on the regular season schedule as well.
by Kevin Sawyer on Jul 5, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Joe Johnson’s might be worse. Gay at least will be in his “prime” for the entire length of the contract. JJ’s already peaked.
hands down
and the way he quit on the team in the playoffs? I’m surprised he even got a phone call from the Hawks, let alone a freakin’ contract. Utterly Stupid.
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That’s a good point. Do the fans in Atlanta even want him back? Let alone for all of their money?
by garrettelliott on Jul 4, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
i completely agree that Johnson should not have gotten that contract from Atlanta, especially after the way he performed in the playoffs.
However, I cannot for a second understand the rationale that makes Rudy Gay a max contract player. What has he ever done? The guy is essentially Richard Jefferson, sans douche tats, except that Jefferson could actually defend at Gay’s age, and wasn’t a complete black hole on offense.
Memphis should be building around Marc Gasol and OJ Mayo, they should be trying to retain Randolph, finding an upgrade at the point and a defensive veteran at the 3. Instead they lock up a slightly-above-average player who almost averaged 20 points per game last season and hasn’t done much of anything else of note in his entire career.
In a vacuum, one could argue that Joe Johnson could be a near max player. He’s not a max player and shouldn’t have been retained by Atlanta.
But Rudy Gay’s production isn’t even worth a Ben Gordon contract, especially in Memphis. From where I sit, this was a huge step back for a team with a ton of promise on it’s roster. Had they been able to nail down a frontcourt of Gasol and Randolph for the next four years, get themselves a real point guard and add a vet at the 3 (see: Prince, Tayshaun), they could be downright nasty.
Instead, they gave big kid money to a player that should be their 3rd option on offense, and Charlie Villanueva on defense.
witty signature
3rd option?
He was 4th on the team in offensive win shares last year, and it looks like Mike Conley might have turned the corner.
Earl Clark?
Earl Clark had a PER of 8.5, and a negative ws/48. He was also lousy in college, so there is no reason to think what you see isn’t what you get. He’s the reason they need Warrick.
I think people will be very surprised at how little Phoenix drops off without Stoudemire. They still look like a 50 win team to me.
same here
I don’t think Stoudemire is that good of a player to deserve a max contract; he’s done absolutely nothing of late. He’s a stat filler under the right system, but what has he actually done of late? Ever since the knee injuries, he’s been a slightly above average athlete with a mid range jumper that gets superstar treatment for some puzzeling reason. He’s no longer the same guy that averaged 37 ppg in the conference finals against Tim Duncan, he’s just fairly good player that Steve Nash (and now Goran Drajic) made look great.
by bearded thundar on Jul 4, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think we'll even have to compile one
I’m pretty sure whatever ESPN rolls out as the biggest signings of the off season would qualify
by bearded thundar on Jul 4, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Good Write-Up, Kevin
I like the Steve Blake signing more and the Salmons signing less than you do, but I have to agree with everything else.
totally unrelated...
but ufc 116 was one of the best cards they’ve put on in a long time. Not one fight was bad and the co-main events were stellar (was hoping for a different outcome in the sexyama vs. leben fight though)
Damn, i’m still thinking about that card. They really need to find someone who can challenge GSP so we can see him in some classic matches again, he’s simply dominated his division.
I’m actually a Brock Lesnar fan even though he’s just bigger than everyone else. At least we know he can take a punch now. The Bonner fight was pretty good too.
by garrettelliott on Jul 5, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions
we also know he doesn't JUST rely on his size
Carwin is smaller but comparable in size, and Lesnar beat him with wrestling and BJJ out of all things as opposed to the ground and pound
agreed – all the fights were great
Yeah, that was a sweet submission by the big fella.
by garrettelliott on Jul 5, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
If Dumas don't use MLE this year, he may be the best GM.
The contract values are crazy at this moment.
Very true, in fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t get anybody this off season with the MLE. I do think we’ll see something go down this summer, though.
by Biz Markie Moon on Jul 5, 2010 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions
i wanted him to use the MLE just like a week ago
but after seeing all the garbage contracts people are getting its prolly better if he doesnt.
Better Off Using The MLE On You Or Me
What is going on with all those wacky deals?
http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2010/7/1/1547689/official-free-agent-landing-zone
by V. on Jul 5, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The best deal this offseason is the Warrick deal
The worst is Joe Johnson. Looking at that, Joe Johnson is being paid more than Paul Pierce AND Dirk Nowitzki.
by Biz Markie Moon on Jul 5, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of Dumars... why has he supposedly interviewed with the nets??
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/97784594_Talk_with_Dumars.html
although i know that would make many of you happy if he is leaving
either way, the information comes from unidentified “league sources”
would not make me happy
I think that Joe is a better than average GM, and under the right management would flourish. Part of the problem with the current pistons is that we never go into the luxury tax, if you gave Joe the same $90 mil the Lakers have, I think there’s no question we have a deeper bench in 05-08 and would have won at least one more title
by bearded thundar on Jul 5, 2010 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Joe D
Denied interviewing, Story is on SB nation Detroit.
by Taiwanese Tora on Jul 5, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe this has to do with the change in ownership
Joe Dumars seemed to be extremely tight with Bill Davidson. Now that Davidson is gone it’s possible that Dumars no longer finds the Palace to be a nice workplace. Tom Wilson already has abandoned ship.
I wish Karen Davidson would sell the team already, take her bags of money, and go away. It’d be great if Ilitch or someone with a similar record of great sports-ownership would take over.
Though Dumars has done a bad job over the last few years, I don’t know why we should think that Karen Davidson would know or care enough about the league to hire someone better. I feel like the only way this would be good for the Pistons is if Karen could nab John Hammond.
All that said, this is probably just bunk anyway, as Mannie points out by citing the unnamed “league sources.”
Probably Is Bunk...
Your next owner is probably, almost certainly, MI-based. Either the Illitches or David Katzman. I also think Mrs. Davidson has a pretty good idea who the next owner is, it’s just the buyer doing the due diligence and negotiating a price. I believe in either case, Dumars is staying on.
While Dumars and Jeff Bower’s named was mentioned in the article, the most logical name wasn’t-Kevin Pritchard, which raises the bunk factor heavily.
by V. on Jul 5, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
MF BOOM!
Is this sound Cabrera’s bat makes in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game!
by bearded thundar on Jul 6, 2010 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Cabby needs to stay off my turf
He can’t handle my 6 foot, 140 pound frame. I will throw down, if necessary!
"Wait a minute! That's insane! They're total liars. I kept my mouth shut when Dean said he could read Sanskrit, and when Hank said he wanted a piece of him, I was like 'Fine. Whatever.', but Mecha-Shiva? No way! They are so lying, I'm innocent!"
-The Monarch
The real question is....
Who don’t like the suh-un, chasing all the rain away?
by Biz Markie Moon on Jul 6, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd!
"Wait a minute! That's insane! They're total liars. I kept my mouth shut when Dean said he could read Sanskrit, and when Hank said he wanted a piece of him, I was like 'Fine. Whatever.', but Mecha-Shiva? No way! They are so lying, I'm innocent!"
-The Monarch
Where is Amare
on your list? That is a lot of money to pay for a fragile forward who doesn’t have the cast mates he did in Phoenix. I cannot see him putting up those type of numbers in NYC, because there is no one there who can distribute like Nash.
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