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Around SBN: All Hail David Luiz

NBA free agents 2011 grades - Part 1

Fresh off a lockout precipitated by the propensity of GMs to offer outlandish contracts to mediocre players, GMs got down to the business of, um, doing it some more.

Below, find part one of my draft grades. Early observations:

We can probably hold off on the Lakers obituaries. They've made a couple of nice moves to offset the loss of Lamar Odom.

The Pistons aren't going to be very good.

The Nuggets are going to be very good.

In addition to overvaluing the wrong kind of talent, some teams simply don't have a game plan. That's a deadly combination, as the Timberwolves and Trailblazers fans will soon attest.

Enough. To the grades!


Tayshaun Prince - Pistons - 4 yrs. $25M

Grade: D

Ironic grade, since Prince no longer plays any. This signing makes absolutely no sense for the Pistons, who should be rebuilding coming off a 30-win season. Joe Dumars defended the re-signing on the grounds Prince deserves to retire as a Piston. Any notion of Prince deserving anything went out the window when he openly boycotted a team practice. In Prince, Detroit will have a still-competent offensive player whose defense will increasingly be a liability as he enters his mid-30s.

Rodney Stuckey - Pistons - 3 yrs. $25M

Grade: C+

Paired with the decision to amnesty Rip, this signing is palatable. It's short, easily tradeable, and gives the Pistons the chance to see if Stuckey can finally develop a reliable jump shot. Even better, it comes off the books at the same time as Gordon and Charlie V. Stuckey has improved every year, but players tend to stop improving once they reach their mid-20s.

Jonas Jerebko - Pistons - 4 yrs. $16M

Grade: B+

An essentially fair deal. It is likely last year's injury saved the Pistons the obligation for a major payday, but they also inherit a certain amount of risk. All in all, the dashing Swede is looking like one of the lone bright spots for Pistons this year.

Star-divide

Nene Hilario - Nuggets - 5 yrs. $67M

Grade: A-

The crown jewel of a mediocre free agent off season, Nene scored a pretty reasonable payday for a top-five center. The Nuggets might be lamenting the final year of the contract, but they have the talent and the organizational wisdom to make a serious playoff push in a wide-open Western Conference. At this price, it's a no-brainer.

David West - Pacers - 2 yrs. $20M

Grade: B+

A nice value here. West has a somewhat unfair reputation as an injury risk. That said, I'm not sure he fills a need for the Pacers, who have nice pieces in the front court. This makes the Pacers a shoo-in to be Washington Wizards Memorial hum-drum team that randomly has two players in the all-star game. "Granger and West are in? Time to go grab a beer."

Tyson Chandler - Knicks - 4 yrs. $58M

Grade: B+

If Chandler only has 9.9 ppg last year instead of 10.1, he's playing somewhere else for about $5M per year less. The Knicks overpaid a bit, as Chandler is unlikely to be as efficient on offense as he was last year. That said, he should be an outstanding defender throughout the life of the contract, and is the perfect pairing for Amare Stoudemire. He arguably makes the Knicks a top four team in the East, for which Carmelo Anthony will get all the credit.

Marc Gasol - Grizzlies - 4 yrs. $55M

Grade: B-

Gasol is starting to come into his own as a defender, but at this price, I'd be concerned about his conditioning. I suspect the Grizz believe they are paying for upside, but Gasol will be 27, so it's pretty likely what they've seen is what they get. Nonetheless, Gasol is a talent and I don't see how the Grizzlies don't keep together the core that took them surprisingly deep into the playoffs last season.

Thaddeus Young - 76ers - 5 yrs. $43M

Grade: A

Provided he has finally given up on shooting three pointers, this is a nice value. Given that he's only 23 and has room to improve, this is one of those situations you want to lock your player down for the long haul.

Greg Oden - Blazers - 1 yr. $8.9M


Grade:B+

Frankly, I would rather Detroit had thrown a $25-30M contract at Oden to see if he would bite on a longer deal for more guaranteed money. Not sure about one year. The Blazers are basically paying for his audition. If he can replicate his past performance over a full season, he's a max player. On the other hand, I certainly wouldn't have let him walk over $9M.

Jamal Crawford - Blazers - 2 yrs. $10M

Grade: D

Yet another aging wing player getting overpaid because he inefficiently scores in the teens. Wash, rinse, repeat. By the end of this contract, Crawford will have earned $75 million simply by being selfish. Is it any wonder why players are looking to emulate his example?

Marcus Thornton - Kings 5yrs. $40M

Grade:C-

Had a pretty decent little surge with the Kings, but 27 games is a small sample size, and he was ineffectual before that. Even if that stretch was a sign of things to come, you have a somewhat efficient shooting guard who doesn't play defense. $8 million is not the going rate for that kind of player.

Chuck Hayes - Kings - 4 yrs. $21.3M

Grade: A-

Hayes' production has been all over the place on the offensive end (witness his bizarre 38% TS in 08-09) but his defense alone is worth the price of admission. The question is whether the Kings know what they have and whether he'll get minutes on a team that puts an inordinately high emphasis on points per game.

Jason Richardson - Magic - 4 yrs. $25M

Grade: B

The last couple of years of this deal might turn brutal, as Richardson is nearly 31, but he is an efficient scorer and prolific three point shooter on a team built on that model. If you assume Dwight is gone, this is clearly a dumb move, but this is a fair contract for a perennially underrated player.

Rip Hamilton - Bulls - 2 yrs. $10M

Grade: F

The Bulls seem to have badly misread their situation here. Rip will almost certainly demand the starting job, which means opposing teams can simply sag off him and Derrick Rose. Defensively, Rip is atrocious, which doesn't exactly gel with the Bulls commitment to defense. Oh, and Rip is a stage 4 locker room cancer. Have fun with all that, coach Thibodeau.

DeAndre Jordan - Clippers - 4 yrs. $42M

Grade: B+

If you are going to overpay, overpay for young productive centers, yes? Jordan is a good defender with the makings of a great one, and he's only 23. He's a perfect fit to play alongside Blake Griffin, and the Clippers are clearly in "win now" mode with the acquisition of Chris Paul. The only snag is if Vinny Del Negro goes Two-Foul Charlie on him, which would limit him to 24 mpg, thereby limiting his value.

Caron Butler - Clippers - 3 yrs. $24M

Grade: F

If you're going to overpay, you don't overpay for aging wings, yes? Setting aside the fact that he has never been worth this much money his entire career, there is a very good possibility he'll play fewer than 150 games under the life of this contract. Bizarre.

Mike Dunleavy - Bucks - 2 yrs. $7.5M

Grade: B

Milwaukee's strategy seems pretty clear. Pay fair market value for average players and hope a younger player busts out. Makes sense for their market. Really, this is the sort of contract Tayshaun Prince should have gotten, and it's certainly reasonable. However, what does this do to move the needle for the Bucks?

Kwame Brown - Warriors - 1 yr. $7M

Grade: D-

Gets a D- because a) Kwame isn't THAT bad. b) It's only one year. and c) It's better than the Caron Butler deal. But yeah, beyond parody, this.

Glen Davis - Magic - 4 yrs. $26M

Grade: C

Not nearly as bad as his reputation, but a defensive big who doesn't rebound doesn't really fill any gaps for a team with Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson. That said, he'll probably be effective playing alongside Howard (if he stays) or Anderson (if Howard bolts). I'd wonder against whom they were bidding for Big Baby's services, but I think I know the answer to that question, and that answer tickles my sadness.

Craig Smith - Blazers - 2 yrs. $Cheap

Grade: A

Details of the contract have not been announced for whatever reason, but we know he isn't getting very much. Smith is a very skilled offensive player who would could be a star if he had better conditioning. He's basically Charlie V if Charlie wouldn't keep shooting threes. A nice pickup for a team that needs front court depth.

Chris Wilcox - Celtics - Vet. Minimum

Grade: A

He was the Pistons' second best player last year by any metric. Unfortunately, Chris Wilcox is a 37 year-old combo guard with bad knees and a penchant for reckless drives to the lane, so I can see why Joe Dumars... Er, wait.

Josh McRoberts - Lakers - 2 yrs. $6.1M

Grade: A

Dear small-market owners. The Lakers just snagged a young, talented Power Forward who can rebound and hit three-pointers, all for dirt cheap. Too bad you were powerless to stop it by virtue of the fact that you are all idiots. If only David Stern hadn't given you all stupid pills.

Troy Murphy - Lakers - Vet. Minimum

Grade: A

" "-" ". " " " " " veteran, " Power Forward " " " " " "-", " " " ". " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " ". " " " " " " " " " ".

By the way, Dave Berri just did his win projections for the Lakers. On paper, this is a 70 win team, even in a shortened season.

Brandan Wright - Mavericks - 2 yrs. $4M

Grade: A-

Wright is certainly injury prone, but very effective when he gets on the court. Many of his issues have been shoulder related, and those problems tend to resolve, so this is about low-risk, high-reward contract.

J.J. Barea - Timberwolves - 4 yrs. $19M

Grade: D

In fairness, the present roster imbalance notwithstanding, the Timberwolves still have a hole at point guard. Really, though, that only makes the whole thing funnier.

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"Dashing Swede"

= best part of the analysis.

by Toledo Joe on Dec 20, 2011 3:26 PM EST reply actions  

Pretty much on board with you so far.

I don’t think Kwame’s one-year deal was bad, though, given roster needs, it’s only a year, and teams have to hit min salary. Maybe a C.

The Lakers cleaned up. Hard to believe McRoberts didn’t get more offers after a nice season last year.

And it’s also infuriating given our needs. Dumars hasn’t made any play for Dalambert, Wilcox, Humphries, or McRoberts, all of whom would have helped.

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 20, 2011 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

…it’s only a year, and teams have to hit min salary

Much better than committing said $ amount to a crappy player for MULTIPLE years.

by -PS- on Dec 20, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

The Lakers fourth best player is Josh McRoberts…

I lol.

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Dec 20, 2011 3:43 PM EST reply actions  

The Pistons fourth best player is … ????

I cry myself to sleep.

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 20, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

1. Moose
2. Jonas
3. Knight
4. CV

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Dec 20, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly.

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 20, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait...Tay was only 4 years, $25M? I thought we were paying him closer to 30?

Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.

Love Beer? Me too! http://jimbobsbeerblog.wordpress.com/
Follow me on twitter: #JimBobsBeerBlog

by The Boourns on Dec 20, 2011 3:44 PM EST reply actions  

There have been conflicting numbers.

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 20, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

That's probably where he'll wind up

Some of these numbers are going to be off, since there has been so much player movement.

by Kevin Sawyer on Dec 20, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice write up, pretty much agree with most of this,

Just letting you know though, Chuck Hayes got his contract voided by the Kings because of a ‘failed physical’.

by nels1 on Dec 20, 2011 4:20 PM EST reply actions  

I hope Hayes is OK. He needs to be a Piston.

by Birdman84 on Dec 20, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

He definitely fits the blueprint.

Sounds pretty serious though, some kind of heart abnormality. Sad but hopefully rebound.

by nels1 on Dec 20, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

He fits the blueprint of ten years ago

Did not know about the heart abnormality. That could be a career-ender. Sad, indeed.

by Kevin Sawyer on Dec 20, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

specially for a guy that played his heart out.

He was my favorite “little big”

just win, baby

Thank you Kris Draper and Chris Osgood for all the memories.

Millen shall be Mi**en on Pride of Detriot. New, official, unwritten law.

by Bballkid-22 on Dec 21, 2011 12:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Played his heart out?

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 21, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't think we used the amnesty on Rip.

Please tell me that we still have our Get out of Chucky free card..

by Packfill on Dec 20, 2011 4:42 PM EST reply actions  

Rip got a negotiated buyout, so amnesty is still available.

by Birdman84 on Dec 20, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

What's hilarious to me about free agency...

Is that in theory (one backed by its very name), all the players go into a pool where teams (usually with pretty specific needs) can go after them.

In practice, however, most free agents end up on the same teams for too much money out of fear and/or misplaced loyalty.

Nice write up, KS. I wonder if there are any numbers that indicate that stay-at-home free agents end up with bigger contracts, on average, than free agents that fly the coop. Or, maybe we’re just special.

I wrote a book about time travel. Buy it and/or die. http://www.thetimetravelguide.com

by heWizard on Dec 20, 2011 5:36 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

based on these grades

Which are, of course, non-scientific, the breakdown:

New signings

A – 6
B – 3
C – 1
D/F – 5

Resignings

A – 2
B – 5
C – 2
D/F – 1

Considering Detroit had 2 of the 3 bad resignings, based on this small sample size, it doesn’t seem so. However, new player signings do seem to fall in the boom or bust pile. That makes sense, as teams are more likely to come to a reasonable agreement with an existing player.

by Kevin Sawyer on Dec 20, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there any compelling reason to watch this team other than Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe?

Now that Stuckey is re-signed, Knight won’t play as much, so there’s that.

Where’s the magic, Joe?

Formerly WestSideLionsFan. Fan of all Detroit sports teams.

by WalterM on Dec 20, 2011 7:42 PM EST reply actions  

Where’s the magic, Joe?

He traded it for minority ownership in Church’s Chicken.

by Mike Payne on Dec 20, 2011 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

In the fat man’s defense, Church’s Chicken is pretty amazing.

WORD PLAY
hollywoodsloce.tumblr.com

by Biz Markie Moon on Dec 21, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

But it is NOTHING compared to the Harold’s Chicken at 44th & Cottage Grove…

http://www.yelp.com/biz/harolds-chicken-chicago-7

…or Uncle Lou’s on Millbranch!

http://www.yelp.com/biz/uncle-lous-fried-chicken-memphis

by -PS- on Dec 21, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Truth.

And thanks to you. Harold’s was a revelation.

by Colin M on Dec 21, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s a mean thing to do to a man stuck in a suburban office far, far away from good fried chicken.

by Colin M on Dec 21, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Uncle Lou’s fried chicken, honey biscuits, fried okra, French fries, and more chicken (Agence France-Presse)

by -PS- on Dec 21, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Stuckey would have been an A

.. if we signed him to about 5 million a year…

just win, baby

Thank you Kris Draper and Chris Osgood for all the memories.

Millen shall be Mi**en on Pride of Detriot. New, official, unwritten law.

by Bballkid-22 on Dec 21, 2011 12:30 AM EST reply actions  

Reggie Evans to the Clippers for the vet’s minimum.

by Grant E. on Dec 21, 2011 1:22 AM EST reply actions  

Grading your grades:

D+

David West at 10m per? Tyson Chandler better grade than Marc Gasol? Nah

by RoscoeJacksonJr on Dec 21, 2011 7:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Yah

Chandler was amazing last year. Lead league in TS% and .218 ws/48
Worst case scenario, he plays about as well as Marc Gasol.

by Kevin Sawyer on Dec 22, 2011 5:21 PM EST reply actions  

I think that was a fluke

He hasn’t put up anything close to those numbers in his entire career. Likely a consequence of playing alongside an MVP level Dirk

Without a doubt, squats are a cure for everything.

by bearded thundar on Dec 22, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, coaching. Carlisle is a great coach and I’m sure that helped some. Chandler also stayed relatively injury free.

by Birdman84 on Dec 22, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d give Kidd some credit. Lots of Chandler buckets came off of great playmaking from Kidd.

I don’t think it was a fluke, though. If you look at the stats across the board, the only thing he did last year that he had never done before was the shooting percentage. He’s just never put it all together in one season before.

I think playing next to Stoudamire, he will still get tons of rebounds. It will be interesting to see what his shooting percentage looks like. He’s put up really, really good numbers there before, too.

But even if all he does is rebound a lot and protect the paint, he’s still hugely important for the Knicks.

"With logic he attacks. With statistics he defends."

@brgulker

by brgulker on Dec 24, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Barea, a D, seriously?

The Wolves signed themselves an interpreter for Rubio who can get you 10 points, 4 assists and 2 rebounds per game for under 2 million a year. I’d give that at least a B+!!!

Ifuonlyknew

by FreshLook on Dec 24, 2011 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

backcourts crowded though.

Barea is great, i think better than Rubio, but they already had Flynn and Ridnour

just win, baby

Thank you Kris Draper and Chris Osgood for all the memories.

Millen shall be Mi**en on Pride of Detriot. New, official, unwritten law.

by Bballkid-22 on Dec 28, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed on Barea but redo the math...

At 4 yrs and $19 million that’s just under $5 million per year. But I still think it’s a decent signing – he certainly made a huge impact in the finals against Miami. I was surprised the Mavs didn’t keep him, but maybe they weren’t willing to go that high. I’d give it a C or C+.

by revken on Dec 26, 2011 2:03 PM EST reply actions  


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