Pistons Backcourt Playing Time
by revken on Jul 11, 2011 6:29 PM EDT
Email
Print
The recent discussion about Brandon Knight's possible production got me to thinking about some potential options for the guard line-up that would give him an opportunity to play and develop his NBA game. As we all know, the Pistons are loaded with guards, which is why many of us were hoping they'd snag a quality big in the recent draft. Alas, that was not to be, and I find it hard to fault their decision to opt for Knight. Hopefully this pick will turn out as well as did last year's selection of Greg Monroe.
But while Monroe came to a team that clearly had room on the roster for more big men, Knight's situation is the opposite. He has to fight for playing time at the point with Stuckey and Bynum (and maybe White, too). It's hard to imagine that he's capable of beating both of them out for significant playing time this early in his career. But it doesn't make much sense for him to ride the pine all year for a Pistons' squad that at best is an 8th seed in the playoffs. The sooner he gets an opportunity to play (hopefully this year!) the better for him and the team's future.
I think the best option is for the Pistons to move Stuckey to shooting guard. Lots of people already think that's a better position for him, but the key for this discussion is that it lessens the logjam ahead of Knight. If Stuckey is the starting SG, I would not be surprised if Bynum began the season as the starting PG. But that would still allow Knight to get significant minutes as the backup PG. Hopefully in time he would move into the starting line-up, just as Monroe eventually did last year.
Of course, moving Stuckey to SG means we'd have a glut at that position with Hamilton and Gordon also at that spot. But Hamilton is at a point in his career where he'll be most effective if he can produce coming off the bench, and Gordon will best contribute to the team if he can be "instant offense" off the bench. So I think it makes more sense to start Stuckey and let those guys battle it out for the backup spot (unless a trade opportunity materializes).
I think an eventual backcourt pairing of Knight and Stuckey could work well together. Next year's draft looks to have lots of quality in the frontcourt positions, so with some luck and time we might be able to put together a good young team that will improve over time.
FanPosts are user-created posts from the Detroit Bad Boys community and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of all fans or the staff at DBB. The DBB staff reserves the right at any time to edit the contents of FanPosts as they reasonably see fit.
73 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Stuckey should not start at the 2
He’s a good defender against point guards due to his advantage in size and strength. He’s a poor defender against shooting guards because he loses his size advantage and is actually undersized at that position. The offense flowed better with him off the ball, but his defense fell apart at the 2— either way, the man is just not cut out for the starting lineup.
We’ve talked about this quite a bit here. Many of us have felt that Stuckey’s best placement would be off-the-bench and on-the-ball, bringing sparkplug offense against the competition’s tired starters or weaker bench players. Give him 30 minutes a game from this slot, he just might work out well in a Pistons uni.
That's the double-truth, Ruth.
IMHO and great guessing ability
and assuming Joe D doesn’t make any trades, (hopefully he does make trades) I’d guess the starting lineup would be
Brandon Knight
Rip Hamilton
Austin Daye
Jonas Jerebko
Greg Monroe
Rodney Stuckey: Combo Guard off the bench gets 30 minutes per game, he flourishes gets like 18 ppg
Ben Gordon: Wishes he had Kuester back as the new coach plays him like 8 minutes per game and Joe D hopefully trades him for basically nothing.
Rip gets his shit together and gets like 15 ppg and is hopefully traded for actually something as he is a good, productive teammate. Stuckey steps into the starting lineup with Rip gone but sees a production dropoff as he is better as a combo guard off the bench.
Will Bynum and Terrico White: don’t really get consistent minutes.
This is just my guess, so there is obviously no chance that it happens.
Stuckey
I have trouble seeing Stuckey as undersized at SG at 6-5 & 205 lbs – especially when Hamilton is 6-7 & 193 and Gordon is 6-3 & 200. Is he a worse defender at SG then either of them? I guess we’ll see if he’s given more time at that position. But my main point was that he should be moved to SG to free up room at the point. If Stuckey can’t beat out Hamilton or Gordon for the starting job, then he comes off the bench. Moving Stuckey to SG means Knight doesn’t have to jump over both him and Bynum for playing time. If he’s the #3 PG he won’t get many minutes. Expecting a 19 year old with one year of college ball to beat out two vets for playing time is asking a lot. Actually, it might be better if Knight and Stuckey played together coming off the bench, since they could share the ballhandling duities. The sooner we find out what kind of point guard Knight can be, the better.
All of these guys have flaws in their games – but so does most everyone else in the league. Jerebko may not be an ideal starter at PF or SF – but I think most of us want him on the court as much as possible. This is not a playoff caliber team, but if the young guys develop and we add some good pieces it can become one.
I think the sentiments of Stuckey being "under-sized" at the 2 is not quite what people are saying here...
really, they mean to say that re-signing stuckey would be a massive mistake…
no seriously though, I think that the numbers show that his advantages as a defender and on offense are really only realized at PG. If he’s playing SG, he doesn’t have nearly the size advantage on defense and he doesn’t shoot efficiently enough on offense.
That said, I’m hoping for the following:
- Byunum agrees to play with Maccabi Tel Aviv and his childhood buddy regardless of the lockout. I’m assuming that a move like this should he decide to stay in Israel after the lockout is over would nullify his existing contract with Detroit.
- Stuckey continues to start at PG, while Knight gets consistent minutes off the bench. Advantageous in that Knight begins his career much like Monroe…playing against 2nd team squads as opposed to starters.
- Assuming Gordon/Rip aren’t traded before the season, we start Gordon and bring Rip off the bench with Knight. Rip benefits from a young PG with a good 3 ball, and this allows us to hide our defensive liabilities (read: Ben Gordon) as much as possible.
- Ideally we trade Gordon (because a 6’3" shooting guard makes no sense what so ever in today’s NBA) and move Rip back into the starting lineup. We move White up alongside Knight giving us the “White Knight” back court.
Meanwhile, Macklin goes insane, begins destroying people, and forces himself into the starting lineup. This pushes Jerebko to the 3, and Daye to the backup SF position resulting in the following lineups:
Stuckey/Knight
Hamilton/White
Jerebko/Daye
Monroe/CV31
Macklin/Wallace
Our lack of 3PT shooting in our starting squad is supported by the over-abundance of 3 point shooters on the 2nd team. The 3 point shooting gives Knight plenty of options on offense and the athleticism/quickness combined with the lack of post play can stretch the defense allowing for some lanes to open up.
While we likely won’t win a ton of games, this would give our young core the best opportunity to play their natural positions and work on the aspects of the game that we’ll be asking from them in the future.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 12, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I have trouble seeing Stuckey as undersized at SG at 6-5 & 205 lbs
Stuckey does not have a size advantage over 19 of the 29 starter shooting guards in the NBA. This makes him below average. Or in other words, under-sized.
These 19 starter shooting guards either match or exceed Stuckey in height or match or exceed Stuckey in weight, taking away the size advantage he has when matched against point guards:
Ray Allen 6’5 205
Anthony Morrow 6’5 210
Landry Fields 6’7 210
Andre Iguodala 6’6 207
DeMar DeRozan 6’7 220
Keith Bogans 6’5 215
Paul George 6’8 210
Stephen Jackson 6’8 215
Gerald Henderson 6’5 215
Dwyane Wade 6’4 220
Nick Young 6’7 210
Kevin Martin 6’7 185
Manu Ginobili 6’6 205
Arron Afflalo 6’5 215
Wesley Johnson 6’7 215
James Harden 6’5 220
Kobe Bryant 6’6 205
Vince Carter 6’6 220
Tyreke Evans 6’6 220
Is he a worse defender at SG then either of them?
Worse than Rip, yes. Across 401 recorded possessions by synergy sports, Hamilton let up .88 points per possession. Stuckey let in .91 points per possession across 660 recorded possessions. The difference might seem small, but in the rankings, there were 74 players between them in rank. Note that the difference is a bit skewed here, since Stuckey had the luxury of playing against point guards on defense for much of the season, whereas Hamilton spent nearly all of his minutes on the wing.
Last, you’re kind of arguing with yourself here:
If Stuckey can’t beat out Hamilton or Gordon for the starting job, then he comes off the bench.
vs.
Expecting a 19 year old with one year of college ball to beat out two vets for playing time is asking a lot.
At the end of the day, there is only one plausible solution to this mess. A trade. Barring that, juggling minutes isn’t likely to produce much more than dissent amongst players.
That's the double-truth, Ruth.
by Mike Payne on Jul 12, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This^
To reiterate: There is no possible guard rotation that makes sense with these pieces. No matter how you arrange them, someone isn’t getting enough minutes to either: 1) Properly utilize their talents or 2) Give them time to develop.
As a team that should be heavy on the development at this point, I think the rotation should be:
PG: 1) Stuckey 2) Knight
SG: 1) Gordon 2) White
Hamilton can sit and spin, and Bynum’s future was pretty much set as soon as JoD decided he needed Stuckey back and drafting a PG was a good plan.
In my mind, ideally we would trade/dump Hamilton, Stuckey, and Bynum, and pick up a better PG, (Sessions would be fine) to start while Knight comes of the bench.
by Big Z in Orlando on Jul 12, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Crossing over from the Bulls board
I really like Stuckey. I’m not sure if the current CBA allows teams to sign-and-trade RFAs (I’ve seen conflicting evidence, any ideas?), but I’d love for the Bulls to get him to play SG and take some scoring pressure off Rose.
I’m surprised to see how the anti-Stuckey talk here. 18.4 PER 24 year olds are a pretty rare commodity, and he’s been the Pistons’ best plusminus guy over the past two years… he kinda seems like the least of your problems. As for his Synergy stats, opponents made 36% of their 3s against him vs 32% against for Rip. Equal those and their PPP-against is equal. Also, Stuckey didn’t do as well defending PnRs, but is that necessarily his fault? He faced a lot more of them, and I doubt the Pistons bigs provided much help. Isolation defense was good despite little help inside… I don’t know much about his off-the-ball defense.
All very good points...although many of us will be hesitant to consider arguments that are supported with PER.
I think the main frustration with Stuckey is that his efficiency as a shoot-first point guard is pretty mediocre compared to other PGs out there both shoot-first and pass first.
As someone who was a long time Stuckey supporter, I still think he could end up netting a sixth man of the year on a contender. I also think that when he’s made a point of passing, he’s been quite good at it. The biggest question though is whether a combo-guard can change his spots…can Stuckey evolve himself out of the shoot-first mentality and into a player who has a better balance of drive and kick vs. drive and force up a shot.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Stuckey had
a .545 TS%, Rose had a .550 TS%. We’re splitting hairs at that point. Maybe Stuckey wasn’t shooting as often as Rose, but Stuckey was still a #1 option.
.545 TS%, 24.5 USG% <—- Stuckey
.538 TS%, 31.6 USG% <—- Russell Westbrook
.536 TS%, 28.1 USG% <—- Monta Ellis
.545 TS%, 24.6 USG% <—- Devin Harris
He’s right there, and that’s without much help offensively…
I can't believe I'm the one whose arguing with someone else about Stuckey's worth
Realizing you don’t frequent DBB, I’ve been a pretty big Stuckey supporter up until the end of this past season…
Just so we’re working from the same data (which we probably were to begin with) I went ahead and pulled the player comparison index for the 4 players above plus Deron and Rose:
Stuckey’s TS% is buoyed by the number of FTA he gets compared to FGA he takes and the fact that he’s the best from the line of all the players mentioned. With the exception of Westbrook, he had the lowest FG% of any of the guards mentioned, and is the only guard who is incapable of shooting above 32% from beyond the arch. The lack of a 3 ball definitely impacts his game and its something most Pistons fans have been waiting for him to develop.
The other area where Pistons fans expected more from Stuckey is in his distribution and decision making. He averaged only 6 assists per 36 which is the lowest of any of the PGs mentioned above (excluding Monta).
Defensively, he fouls more often than any of the other guards and despite having a size advantage over all of the other PGs both in height and weight, he’s the 2nd worst rebounder among the point guards above (again removing Monta).
My personal belief is that Stuckey could end up being great for another team. I really hope that team isn’t Chicago for obvious reasons (Central Division bla bla bla). I think most of us Pistons fans still believe that Stuckey could be a very good basketball player for a long time, we just don’t think that it will happen on the Pistons…and with the drafting of Knight, I think that his ability to find success on this team will be even less likely.
All that said, I’ll finish where I started. This entire conversation is a role reversal for me. The majority of the season I’ve defended Stuckey and pored over his stats to prove his worth…I may not be the best to argue why Piston fans don’t see as much value as you do, but I sincerely appreciate your support for him.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 12, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
link fail...
here is the stat comparison from basketball reference for the players discussed
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 12, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish Rose buoyed his TS% more with free throws
and I would think Stuckey’s free throws would be considered a very good thing. I see your point though about his poor eFG% and how that could be frustrating. 3pt shooting-wise, I’m surprised he didn’t take more. He made 35% of his spot up 3s and 35% of his isolation 3s (which were mostly just jab step fakes while standing in place). He was just horrible in situations where his feet were moving before the shot (off PnRs, off screens, in transition), and he had a bunch of end of quarter heaves and end of shot clock heaves that brought his average down. I think his 3pt stroke looks solid, and it’s pretty rare for a 87% FT shooter to stay under 30% from 3. I dunno.
The weird thing to me though is the hate for a player with that strong a plusminus, and I think that trumps his underachieving at rebounding, or fouling more than most. I could understand if fans wanted him traded because they don’t think he’s worth a raise. But it seems like people don’t like how he played. The Pistons, per 100 poss, had a -1.8 pt differential with Stuckey on the court this year vs -6.3 off. The year before, -2.8 on, -10.8 off. Those net splits rank around the top 30 in the NBA. His two-year APM easily leads the team at +3.9, while Rip Hamilton was one of the worst in the NBA at -4.6. About 2.5 standard errors between them, so it’s pretty likely that Stuckey was the more effective player over the past two years, and if the APM results are accurate, it’s by a massive amount.
I was thinking Dumars would take Asik and a late 1st for him (+ CJ Watson and either Brewer/Korver to match contracts). I figure the Pistons could use a stud defender inside. I still don’t know if RFAs can be signed-and-traded though.
First, thanks for joining the conversation YaoPau. One thing that has been pretty evident since DetroitBadBoys joined SBN is that enemies fans of other teams on SBN usually come here with good questions/commentary, and you’re clearly one of the good guys.
On to Stuck.
I’ve got so, so much to say about Stuckey and I’ve stayed out of this so far because, frankly, I’m tired of saying it. But I’ll touch on two points and maybe add more later. First, a focus on seasonal averages belies one of Stuckey’s greatest weaknesses, and second, a look at on/off differentials doesn’t take into account how absolutely terrible this roster is.
Stuckey’s 18.4 PER (as Boourns did point out, PER won’t buy a player much appreciation here, we’re collectively pretty down on that stat) looks nice on paper. So does his TS%. But those numbers are buoyed by strings of all-star caliber performances that are swamped by frustrating droughts in production. Look at his game logs. If you were to go through a season watching the Pistons, game-in/game-out, there would be three or four times per season that you’d convince yourself that Stuckey is finally turning a corner, then he falls back far below mediocrity for the better part of a month. The result is a seasonal average that reflects the mean— the peaks and valleys get crunched into a number that, like Stuckey’s confidence, looks good on paper, but not on court.
This isn’t a recent phenomenon, it has happened every single year since Stuckey has been a Piston. Now imagine having this problem on the Bulls? Can a championship contender afford to have 21 brilliant games out of Rodney Stuckey surrounded by 61 games of garbage? Contenders need consistency, a characteristic Rodney Stuckey has never had even a decent grasp on.
Now— the on/off-court differentials. I’m sure this isn’t news to you, but the Pistons are a really, really bad team right now. Greg Monroe is the only good thing we’ve got going for us right now, everything else carries a question mark at best. Given how horrible this roster is, should it surprise you that a guy like Stuckey could have a better +/- than some of his teammates? How would his +/- look if he was playing for the D-League? How would it look if he was playing for the Bulls?
The problem is that when using these +/- numbers, you’re comparing him to the weakest of data groups— his own team. It’s not an effective metric when trying to project his value elsewhere.
Wanna know who I’d target if I was the Bulls? I’d want a lights-out 3-point shooter, a deadly defender and a kid with one of the best work ethics in the NBA. He’s a free agent. He might be a top 5 free agent this summer. Pistons fans already know who I’m talking about. While the stats about him my not leap out at first glance, this is precisely the kid that could put the Bulls over the top— Arron Afflalo.
Sorry for the wall-o’-text y’all, and thanks for joining the conversation, YaoPau.
That's the double-truth, Ruth.
Wanna know who I’d target if I was the Bulls?
Don’t listen to them, YaoPau!
Stuckey’s the man, he just needs a new situation and a coach who knows how to use him properly. You’re right, by PER, he’s a stud.
I’ll trade you for Asik and a future first, but only because we need big guys!
by brgulker on Jul 13, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
The issue with Afflalo
well, it’s actually an issue with the Bulls… Rose is their only shot creator. Really, the only guy who can put the ball on the floor at all. With Boozer banged up in the playoffs, that problem was even more evident (Boozer’s not really an iso player, more a PnR guy, but he was the Bulls’ second best iso option). And so in the Pacers and Heat series, to try to get some offense going, Thibs would run PnRs for Rose, and the Pacers/Heat would just double team Rose instead of keeping one guy back on Noah/Boozer. The Bulls didn’t have a second creator to exploit that trap off the pass, and the Bulls offense crapped out. We have Korver who I think is similar to Afflalo on offense, but if he didn’t get the pass in open space, he wasn’t a good enough creator/passer to exploit the 4on3. Which is why I think Stuckey would be a great pull…
I did a quick copy and paste of that game log to excel, and I removed the six games that preceded an injury. I was thinking of a quick test of whether a scoring PG had a bad game, and what I came up with is BAD GAME = if assists < 10 and (FGA + 0.44*FTA + TOV) > 1.2 * PTS. So basically, if your possessions used were more than 20% greater than your points scored, you weren’t very efficient. And if you also aren’t putting up a big assist total, you probably didn’t help your team offensively. Not a perfect system, but it should get the gist of it, and the 20% allows for more leeway for guys like Rose and Westbrook who take on more of the scoring load.
Anyway, here’s the results for Stuckey/Rose/Westbrook, removing each players games preceding injury:
Stuckey: 64 games played, 18 bad games (28% of the time). Pistons were 1-17 when he had a bad game, and 24-22 when he had a non-bad game.
Rose: 80 games played, 16 bad games (20% of the time). Bulls were 10-6 when he had a bad game, 51-13 when he had a non-bad game.
Westbrook: 82 games played, 22 bad games (27% of the time). OKC was 10-12 when he had a bad game, 45-15 when he had a non-bad game.
Hard to get perspective when it’s just three guys, but Stuckey’s bad game % was close to Westbrook’s, and even if the bad game flag isn’t perfect, 28% isn’t at all close to the the 25%elite / 75%garbage split you guessed at, maybe as hyperbole. I wonder if part of the Stuckey hate comes from the Pistons’ 1-17 record during his bad games, where not only is he doing poorly but also the team is losing, and so he’s the logical person to point blame at.
by YaoPau on Jul 13, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Google Docs Spreadsheet is far superior.
by Shinons* on Jul 13, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Fuck Google.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
I wish!
Oh man, I bet Google is great in bed – sexy, exciting, creative, energetic. Microsoft on the other hand…ew. Old, bloated, just lays there stiff as a board, and anything pleasing to the eye was just store-bought.
by Shinons* on Jul 13, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
yeah...xbox was store bought alright...
xbox live too. oh and Kinect! That too! All store bought…yawn. Your jokes are old and tiring shiny. At some point I’d expect you to come up with some new material…but thats probably asking too much.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
in fact...Microsoft is the least innovative company in the history of the world
they’ve done nothing to contribute to society and their only purpose in life is to sell meaningless software to the the stupid masses who have no clue that Linux is better than Windows, Google Documents is better than Sharepoint or SkyDrive, and bla bla bla bla bla.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
LOOK AT ME I'M SHINY ONIONS...
I MAKE THE SAME JOKES OVER AND OVER AGAIN AND ITS SO FUNNY LOL! LOOK AT THE REC’S I GET CUZ I’M FUNNY TEE HEE LOL. SO FUNNY HA HA IF I HAD A NICKEL FO REVERY JOKE I MADE I WOULD HAVE LOTS OF NICKELS!
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
LOL REC'D FO REVERY!
TEE HEE SO FUNNY ANOTHER NICKEL IN MAH POCKET CUZ I MADE A JOKE!
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Afflalo
When I look at what Afflalo did last year (12.6 ppg, shooting almost 50% and hitting 42% of his 3s), and compare it to Gordon’s production (11.2 ppg at 44% and 40% on 3s), and then look at us paying Gordon nearly six times as much, I feel like we’re seriously screwed …
Not sure about there being hate towards Stuckey. I think it’s more that there were big expectations put on his shoulders, and his development has landed in a frustrating middle/average ground.
I think Stuckey’s a more productive player than Rip or Ben Gordon. Still, so far he hasn’t shown himself to be more than basically just a useful rotation worthy guard with some quirks to his game. Also, on a purely subjective note, Stuckey’s a pretty boring player to watch. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective, but he’s not creative as a passer or dribbler or finisher at the rim.
IMHE, adjusted +/- is a mostly useless stat. Player values fluctuate drastically to the point where it’s unclear what the metric is actually measuring.
Adjusted +/- just comes with an error rate
So a 1-year APM means basically nothing unless you’re at an extreme end, 2-year APMs mean basically nothing unless you’re top 30ish or bottom 30ish, but that doesn’t mean they’re useless, and they’re definitely not useless at 4+ years. I think it’s pretty amazing that with just two years of play-by-play data, an APM stat without human bias can come up with a ranking that passes the eye test this well.
Couple things. 1) Little bit of cherry picking on my part, but a metric that rates Luol Deng above Dwight Howard doesn’t pass my eye test. Also, Keyon Dooling way above Kevin Love. 2) A metric that takes four years of cumulative data to become not totally useless is probably not much of a metric. 3) With 1 year APM, it seems curious that you say APM is meaningless except for at the extreme ends. I would think extreme results are the most questionable.
It's a metric for rating past performance, it's not a predictor
Without APM, we’d have no way of knowing for sure what impact a superstar can have on a team. Win Shares for example is a stat guy’s best guess from watching games, and it underrates superstars like crazy. We can also compare APMs to box score stats to figure out how box score stats usually translate to efficiency. PER for example overrates blocks and rebounds and underrates assists in relation to APM, but otherwise it fits fairly well and is ready available, so I use it.
There’s going to be eye-test issues with any stat that has standard errors that large. Luol Deng, at +8.5 with a 3.3 standard error has a 95% chance of actually being between +1.9 and +14.8 given two standard errors, so it’s very possible that Howard is way above Luol in reality. I’m saying that, even with those large standard errors, the results look fairly good. Of the top 10 guys on that list, I think most of us would have about 7 of them in our own top 10 lists, and this is a completely data-generated stat.
As for the 1-year APMs, those standard errors are so ridiculously high that unless you’re at an extreme, your interval will probably include 0, and therefore you don’t really know anything. But when you see Steve Nash was at +14 this year with a 5.6 standard error, he’s almost guaranteed to have been a net-positive player, while Trevor Ariza and Gordon Hayward are almost guaranteed to have been net-negatives. You could also for example say with high probability that Stuckey was a more effective player than Greg Monroe this past year, as his APM was about 3 standard errors higher. So not much use for a 1-year APM, but there are a few exceptions.
I guess I just don’t see the utility of a metric which says with 95% certainty that Luol Deng is somewhere between being the best player in the league and only slightly above average.
You could also for example say with high probability that Stuckey was a more effective player than Greg Monroe this past year
:( This is dubious.
What I find hardest to swallow about APM is it absolutely cannot be divorced from its NBA context. It already struggles mightily with sample size issues, and the NBA plays over three times as many games as the Euro leagues and four times as many games as NCAA teams.
But I understand the appeal of +/- metrics. Basketball seems like a game too complex for a simple box score metric to be accurate. I favor the box score metrics (except for PER) though because IMO ultimately most things that impact the game are actually funneled pretty well into different pieces of the box score.
I'm agreeing with you
I guess I just don’t see the utility of a metric which says with 95% certainty that Luol Deng is somewhere between being the best player in the league and only slightly above average.
Absolutely. 1-year APMs have almost no utility. It’s the 4+ year APMs that can mean something, when the standard deviations drop to around 1.0.
I’d agree that the box score handles most of it too. I ran a regression of box score stats onto the low-error APMs, and like 60% of the APM variation came from the box score (and I’m sure a big chunk of the remaining variation was the error of APM itself).
I still don’t understand why anyone would want a metric that only might be useful after 4 years of data.
“Is Greg Monroe a useful player that positively impacts wins?”
“Let me get back to you in 2015…”
by brgulker on Jul 14, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
There's no other metric that answers that question quicker
PER, win shares, box score numbers can only give you part of the picture. Without APM we’d have no way of knowing for sure how good Steve Nash was, or how bad Al Jefferson was, as the other stats don’t accurately rate them.
You could estimate how useful Greg Monroe is right away on offense using a statistical plus minus that shows how to translate box score numbers to APM. There’s no stat besides APM that measures defense well by itself. Basketball is crazy-complicated, that’s just kinda how it is.
That’s just ridiculous.
http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/deconstructing-a-model/
And for good measure,
Galleti got it wrong
I commented on that post back when it came out under the name whiffleball, you can find that if you want. Basically, he thought APM included a “APM= Pure*a + (1-a)*Stats step”, when it doesn’t. I don’t know where he got that idea, but it’s not part of the model. APM is just a simple regression.
YOU'RE JUST A SIMPLE REGRESSION YAOPAU!
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Three-Guard Rotation. Team Cohesion.
Now your thoughts.
by -PS- on Jul 12, 2011 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Trade Bynum
Bynum has to be traded for the backcourt minutes and roster to make any sense.
I don’t care if Dumars trades him for a ball rack. Any minutes Bynum gets suppresses the value of the other guards on the roster more than the $3M he’s making. The only hope for the Pistons to be good in the short term is for either Rip or Ben G. to regain some value so they can be traded for something of value, even if it’s .40c on the dollar.
Brandon Knight should be the backup PG to Stuckey (who isn’t really a PG) but I’m not the GM who didn’t trade Stuckey while he had value last year.
There is no good solution to the guard rotation if it means finding minutes for Rip, Stuckey, Ben G., Knight, Bynum, and Terrico White. None.
I’d like to see Knight start Day One. Stuckey as second-unit combo-bro with the ball. Bynum is left a precarious position (Mazel tov?). I don’t even really even care, at this point, what Bip Gordilton ends up doing.
by TDP on Jul 12, 2011 1:45 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Playing time for Knight is the point
Okay, the point of this post was how to get playing time for Knight in a crowded backcourt. Moving Stuckey to SG was the suggestion for how to do this. Rehashing Stuckey’s flaws over and over again gets old, and doesn’t achieve anything. Making a case for him being undersized because he is 6-5 and most starting guards are 6-6 seems a tad ridiculous. Ben Gordon is undersized at 6-3. Does one inch make a difference? Sure. Does it make a huge difference. No. The two best shooting guards in the NBA finals were 6-4 (Wade) and 6-2 (Terry).
Now if we were in a position where we’re fighting to make it back to the finals next year, starting Bynum at PG and moving Stuckey to SG would be crazy. But we’re not. We really don’t know how Stuckey will do defensively against SGs based on how he did against PGs. Going against the league MVP when we played the Bulls certainly didn’t help his defensive rating last year!
As for arguing against myself, that only applies if Stuckey comes off the bench as the backup PG instead of Knight. If Stuckey subs as the backup SG, he doesn’t affect Knight’s playing time so much. And that, of course, was the whole point of the post.
Obviously trades could change the dynamics of the situation, but they depend upon somebody wanting what we have and offering us something useful in return. If Stuckey is put at SG, the need to trade Hamilton or Gordon becomes even greater (unless Stuckey can’t outplay either one of them, in which case he becomes more expendable).
Now if Bynum is traded (or moves to Israel!), that also frees up playing time for Knight, and it is another solution. In some ways our situation is similar to Cleveland’s – they have two point guards (Davis and Sessions) ahead of Irving, but obviously they don’t want their #1 pick riding the pine. They didn’t pick him to be a backup PG, and I’m assuming we didn’t pick Knight for that role, either. Whatever some fans may think, Dumars seems to like both Stuckey and Bynum. But he has to get Knight playing time so he can develop.
Terrico White is a wild card, but I’d be very surprised if he’s ready to assume major minutes this year.
Okay, the point of this post was how to get playing time for Knight in a crowded backcourt. Moving Stuckey to SG was the suggestion for how to do this. Rehashing Stuckey’s flaws over and over again gets old, and doesn’t achieve anything.
If you’re going to continue to suggest that the Pistons move Stuckey to the two, Stuckey’s flaws at that position seem relevant.
We really don’t know how Stuckey will do defensively against SGs based on how he did against PGs.
We do know how Stuckey does defensively against shooting guards, because he was given a chance to guard them last year. As it turns out, he does poorly.
The simplest solution
is to just trade him now.
But seriously, I see what your point is.
As I see it, Stuckey is our best overall guard (ugh). His defense at SG was poor last year, yes, but I don’t agree this precludes him from playing there (mainly because I don’t think our win total next year should be our priority). So, in the spirit of things, as opposed to me just being cynical :), here’s what I’d do with what we’ve got.
PG: Stuckey, 30 mpg / Knight 18 mpg
SG: Gordon, 32 mpg / Rip, 16 mpg
If/when Rip is traded, I’d up BG’s minutes to as much as he can sustain and give the leftovers to Stuckey, Knight, and White/Bynum (whoever makes the roster of these two).
If Rip isn’t traded but is outplaying Daye and/or Jerebko, I’d get him minutes backing up SF.
This is built on a couple assumptions.
First, as Boo has demonstrated, Ben Gordon is a volume scorer. While I don’t like that about him, it is what it is, and if we’re going to pay him, we might as well utilize him for what he is.
Second, Rip’s done here, regardless of when he gets traded.
Third, Knight should get minutes playing PG in the NBA, even if he struggles. The franchise can’t afford to continue to bury young players behind veterans. It’s time to rebuild already.
Fourth, winning isn’t the priority this year. Our priority should be figuring out which of our young players is worth investing in over the long term. We’re pretty sure about Monroe and Jerebko. We’re less sure about Stuckey and Daye. I’m fine giving Stuckey a qualifying offer so that he has a chance to earn his keep for one more season; he’s the best, cheapest option at that price. Same for Daye. White/Knight need to be evaluated, and to some extent, so do Charlie V and Max.
Stuckey and Gordon starting
I guess my question with this option is how do the defensive assignments work? Does Gordon guard the PGs and Stuckey the SGs?
I agree that Gordon needs lots of minutes and shots to be effective. As much as we’re paying him he needs to be a featured part of our offense. At least then if we decided that he needed to go, his production would up his trade value.
I think Knight getting 18 mpg is a realistic hope, though injuries could factor in to his opportunities just as they did for Monroe last year. The more playing time he can get, the better chance he has to develop and show what he can be. We don’t need to take 3 years to figure out whether he can be an NBA PG.
I’m with you on placing player development over wins. To me it means you see that what you need to win more in the long-term may require you to lose more in the short-term. It’s not much different from a business investing in new equipment in order to expand operations, even though it may cut into immediate profits at first. The way for the Pistons to win long-term is to develop our young guys now – and that will also get us in a position to add some other quality guys through the draft.
I guess my question with this option is how do the defensive assignments work? Does Gordon guard the PGs and Stuckey the SGs?
I have no real ideas for how to fix this very real problem. To me, Ben Gordon is the best overall SG, and Stuckey is the best overall PG. Maybe having Jonas inside, with Monroe after long summer workouts would be enough to at least alter some shots to make up for the weak perimeter D this would create.
We have the players we have, and we’re likely to have most of them for a while. To me, it’s time to just play those guys big minutes and let the chips fall where they may.
Yeah, last year it seemed like they were constantly reshuffling the line-up and I would think that made it difficult for anyone to get into playing a consistent role. That’s why I feel a certain degree of sympathy for the “malcontents” even though I don’t like how that played out publically. I’m guessing the players were as frustrated by it as were the fans. A consistent rotation would be a major improvement.
Stuckey's flaws
So let’s keep Stuckey at PG so we can continue to rehash his flaws at that position instead, and then we can also gripe about how the rookie isn’t getting a chance to play. We had a post on here that suggested nigth would get 24 minutes per game next year, and I think that’s unrealistic if he has to compete with both Stuckey and Bynum for time at PG.
From what the stats apparently say, Stuckey is not a good defender period. If Hamilton is a better defender and shooter, then I expect he would start over Stuckey. If Gordon is better, then he beats him out, too. I don’t really care – may the best man win. If you think they ‘re all horrible, well then that’s just too bad until we find someone better.
I’m hoping Knight can become a very good PG, but only time – and playing time – will tell. Drafting Knight tells most people that Stuckey’s future in Detroit is not as the starting PG. I don’t expect Knight to start right away, but he needs to get playing time. Obviously some trades could free up playing time, but until they happen we have to deal with what we’ve got. If you’re the coach and have this backcourt, what would you do?
Re: Stuckey's days are numbered
I don’t think it says that at all. If stuckey is starting at the PG position come start of season, and has some miraculous evolution in PG play, he very well could be our PG of the future. Meanwhile, Knight gets valuable minutes and becomes an extremely valuable commodity in the trade market.
Knight + Gordon or Knight + Rip is probably a lot easier for some teams to swallow than either veteran + a protected draft pick…but only time will tell.
But to your point, a miraculous evolution in Stuckey’s game isn’t likely to happen which means that Knight needs consistent minutes against 2nd string teams to develop confidence in his game. When Stuckey’s contract is up at the end of next season, JoD will make the decision on which PG is right for Detroit’s future.
Whatever that decision is though, the bigger question is what he does with Hamilton/Gordon and to a lesser extent Bynum.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Yes!
bq.Knight needs consistent minutes against 2nd string teams to develop confidence in his game.
That was my main point all along. The question in my mind is how that happens if Stuckey starts at PG. Granted, Knight could be moved ahead of Bynum as the #2 PG and get his minutes that way. But suppose Bynum is a better PG now? What I hear Langlois always saying is that a guy has to earn his playing time in training camp and practice, so I assume that’s the attitude that will govern Knight’s minutes.
Stuckey played 19 minutes a game as a rookie for a Pistons team that had Billups and Hamilton as starters and Lindsey Hunter as the other guard (if I remember correctly). Knight faces a much more crowded situation. I’d love it if he blows everyone away from the get-go and becomes a starter, but I don’t expect that. I think he’ll have some adjusting to do, just as Monroe did. And no summer league probably makes that harder. But watching him play for Kentucky, I think he brings a lot to the table. The kid can shoot and make big shots – something we’ve missed since Chauncey left.
I think Stuckey will improve, and would hate for us to make the same mistake with him that Minnesota made with Billups. We’re already paying for letting Affalo go too soon.
I think Bynum has been around this league and this game long enough to know that
Knight is already ahead of him in the depth chart. I think his interest in heading back to Israel is a clear indication of what he expects the depth chart to be come the open of the season.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
No offense taken
I’m new to this stuff and still learning the ropes. Thanks!
yo dog
I put a reply in your reply so you can reply to my reply while I fuck your brain.
That's the double-truth, Ruth.
Thanks dawg
so does that come free with the car or do I owe you squats?
Without a doubt, squats are a cure for everything.
by bearded thundar on Jul 13, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
yo dawg!
I did a squat where you squatted so that squat on my squat after I squat!
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
squat fail :-(
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
Practice makes perfect
You should squat more.
by Shinons* on Jul 13, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I did my squats today (13)...HAVE YOU?
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't
think I might have a bruised bone :(
Without a doubt, squats are a cure for everything.
by bearded thundar on Jul 14, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
rip has to go in atrade you keep gordan and play him as starter if he does his job if not use him as 1st player off the bench as for stuckey he has value as strater or bench player because he can get his owen shot and do not for get white he didnot play alot last year but he might be sleaper player on this team
by kwfords on Jul 13, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
rec'd for gordan, strater, owen, for get, didnot, and sleaper.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Jul 13, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
i want one of these things
stuckey starts at point guard and does something completely unprecedented and miraculous, which is he turns the last 10 games of last season into his new career norm. if this happens i really don’t care if knight ever sees a minute.
or we play stuckey at the 2 and develop knight at PG. or have stuckey off the bench. either of these scenarios involve trading rip or gordon. the first scenario could work without a trade.
i’d prefer we just trade knight now and try to acquire a big man or jettison a contract because i don’t have much confidence he’ll amount to a productive player, but i have to hope he does.
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Detroit Bad Boys
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
