Was the Detroit Pistons draft of Vernon Macklin a mistake?
by Mike Payne on Feb 7, 2012 8:56 PM EST
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Late second round draft picks rarely pan out in the NBA. While the Detroit Pistons have had some luck over the years, including Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko and Mehmet Okur, finding value in the second round can be a crap shoot at best. In the immediate term, the Pistons clearly misfired in the 2011 NBA draft, securing one player who opted not to join the team and another who has barely scratched the rotation. Kyle Singler, drafted 33rd overall, might have some value for Detroit in the future, but it's looking like the selection of Vernon Macklin was a mistake.
It's hard to call a 52nd pick a mistake, because players drafted 52nd and beyond usually don't see NBA minutes. Players drafted in this range usually wind up overseas or in the D-League while the GMs that own their rights scout them from afar. Detroit drafted Amir Johnson with the 56th pick in 2005, but he spent most of his first two years working on his game in the D-League before he finally got the call. Players like Johnson, picked late in the draft, are usually young players with potential that need a lot of development.
Vernon Macklin, however, does not fit into that equation. Macklin is already 25 years old, he didn't show pre-draft bright spots that could shine if polished, and he's apparently not heading to Europe or the D-League. Yet in 2011-12, on a team that sorely needs help up front, Macklin has only recorded 63 minutes, nearly every one of them in garbage time. If the selection of Vernon Macklin wasn't about developing a prospect, and it wasn't about getting him into the rotation, then what was the point?
Developing Vernon Macklin doesn't seem like it's in the cards. At 25, he should just now be hitting his prime in the NBA. He should have already learned the ins and outs of the NBA, even if he did spent four years in the NCAA. Yet unlike most 22-year-old seniors, Macklin would be 25 when he entered his rookie campaign. He'd be hitting his physical peak while making rookie mistakes at the same time. If he needed two years to develop like some other late picks do, he'd have to wait until the age of 27 to contribute anything of value. With this, it doesn't seem like the plan was to develop Macklin as a prospect, it appears as if the plan was to get him in the rotation right away.
...but that hasn't happened. Macklin isn't getting any burn despite the fact that Charlie Villanueva has only played six minutes this season. Also despite the fact that Ben Wallace is 37-years-old. Detroit features a three-to-four man frontcourt on most occasions, with only Greg Monroe playing a position that comes naturally. Despite all of this, Vernon Macklin can't even crack the rotation.
One or both of these two plans has failed. If the goal was to develop Macklin, Detroit isn't doing it. If the goal was to use Macklin, Detroit isn't doing that either. It could be that Lawrence Frank doesn't feel he's worth the minutes. But given how often this team loses, it's hard to argue that things could be any worse if Macklin was given a shot. The problem with Macklin is that he's too old to develop, and apparently too green to earn garbage time on one of the league's worst teams. Whichever way you prefer to look at it, this pick looks like it was a mistake...
Vernon Macklin is the 4th second round pick in a row that hasn't scratched the rotation for the Pistons. Before Macklin, the other three hadn't even seen a minute of regulation for this team. As is evidenced by Detroit's own record, these 2nd round picks can pay off. Two of the Pistons last five second round picks are starters in the NBA this season. A lottery team needs 2nd round picks to pan out more than playoff teams do, and the Vernon Macklin pick is another case of mismanagement by Joe Dumars. Is it forgivable? Absolutely. Is it questionable? Unfortunately, yes.
In the 2012 NBA draft, Joe Dumars had better come ready to get it right in the second round. This means dodging the Vernon Macklins and keeping the Chase Budingers of the world. Let's hope Ken Catanella comes through with the assist in 2012, because Detroit needs all the luck it can get in both rounds of the draft.
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I Don't Mean To Be Harsh
But..Mike, it is the 52d pick. I’m not going to waste my breath discussing it, and neither should you. You do have a point..after all what’s the point in him making the team if Frank doesn’t want to use him except as a white flag or victory cigar, but this season is probably best forgotten asap after it’s over.
Oddly, Singler may work out after all, the lockout here played to our t benefit. Singler probably would have gotten cut had the lockout not occurred. Instead, he gets burn and experience playing in the 2d best league in the world, and may well end up here next year as the backup 3. I really don’t see Tay with the team next year at all.
I could give a flying fuck whether you follow me or not on Twitter.
But..Mike, it is the 52d pick.
I know, V. Like I said, “It’s hard to call a 52nd pick a mistake, because players drafted 52nd and beyond usually don’t see NBA minutes.”
I’m not going to waste my breath discussing it, and neither should you.
But then you discussed it :)
My point is that yes, it’s very hard to make a bad pick late in the 2nd round. You can rarely expect to find anything of value. But this was a bad pick. His age was apparent. His lack of talent was apparent in the numbers.
I think its absolutely worth discussing. Besides, it’s yet another example where DBB got it right and Joe Dumars got it wrong. How many here were banging pots and pans to pick Isaiah Thomas? It’s almost like fate could have crawled into Jod’s lap, sang him a song, made him dinner and given him a handjob. The guy’s name is fucking Isaiah Thomas. And he’s playing better than every rookie point guard not named Kyrie Irving or Richard Rubio.
MIke...Like I Say
You can make decisions like this at a professional executive level, you need to be convincing Tom Gores and not the DBB community.
Again, I’m not trying to be snarky. If you have that much confidence in your own abilities…bet on yourself.
I could give a flying fuck whether you follow me or not on Twitter.
by V. on Feb 7, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
If I can borrow your condescending tone for a minute
I have a buddy who is an assistant manager at WalMart. He wears a tie and gets the triple play package at Sport Clips. So I understand business, ok? And this guy, he tells me that the only thing that matters in business is the bottom line. Taking a business from booming to bust, there may be all the context in the world behind that fall from grace but the only person you’re going to be able to tell about it is the bartender and your next interviewer. And wasting just giving away merchandise while in the process? That’s not going to get you far in the cutthroat Wally World biz…
by Shinons* on Feb 8, 2012 6:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In many ways I agree here...
but might help if we figure out who would’ve been better at the 52 spot and if those people would’ve fit in any better here.
Three options:
1) pick a different player, Isaiah Thomas for example, who was widely supported on DBB (MFBoourns led the show there, if I remember correctly).
2) trade the pick for a future pick
3) sell the pick for cash
idk if I sell the pick.
you’re not gonna net a lot of cash for a late 2nd round pick and signing a free agent big body is gonna cost more than the 2nd rounder himself. Granted you are probably going to get more guaranteed production from a free agent, but seeing how this team needs youth I’m more ok with taking the pick than selling it.
Picking a different player in the late round is something I’m iffy on. It’s so hit in miss that late in any leagues draft that you either strike something or you don’t. Personally I’d rather we draft a player less developed but with high potential ceiling but it is what it is.
Trading the pick is my favorite option. Especially with this current roster. If we could’ve used it in a package deal than I’d be a happy camper.
you’re not gonna net a lot of cash for a late 2nd round pick and signing a free agent big body is gonna cost more than the 2nd rounder himself.
You’re right on this, although there is a hidden value to selling a 2nd rounder in these cases. Not only are you earning roughly $1M for a late second rounder, but you’re also saving the $500k cap hold a second round player requires under the CBA. So if you have a late pick where there is zero value available, and a trade isn’t available, it’s probably a better idea to sell and save up to $1.5M and work non-guaranteed, short-term contracts to young D-league players throughout the season until you find something that works. It’ll cost less, and the potential value may be higher.
Picking a different player in the late round is something I’m iffy on. It’s so hit in miss that late in any leagues draft that you either strike something or you don’t. Personally I’d rather we draft a player less developed but with high potential ceiling but it is what it is.
I agree on who you’d like to draft here, a less-developed, higher potential player. Macklin was clearly not it in either direction. He played four years in college, so he was developed, but he had little potential given his poor college stats. After the 52nd pick, there was still value available and players that didn’t even get drafted that we could have chosen from.
Trading the pick is my favorite option. Especially with this current roster. If we could’ve used it in a package deal than I’d be a happy camper.
Absolutely, my favorite as well. Before the draft, if teams think there will be value late in the 2nd but it’s less than likely, why not trade it for a future pick? Or package it with a player like Bynum for something of decent value, or a higher pick?
Drafting Macklin may not have been the best idea,
But to simply say trading or selling the pick was a legitimate option is a little overly optimistic. Selling the pick only works if someone is interested in buying. For all we know Joe was on the phone all night trying to dump the 52nd pick for 10 bucks and a Snickers bar. If no other GM thought there was anything worth picking up at that spot, we’d still be stuck with it. The same thing with trades. The 52nd pick in the draft is not much of a deal sweetener. It’s nice to dream about, but it hardly safe to assume that was an actual option.
Also, there may have been other players who were better, but that is always a crap shoot. Mike mentioned Isiah Thomas. That’s nice to think about in hind sight, but can you imagine the possible shit-storm that would have erupted around here if Jod had drafted ANOTHER guard after he already had Knight, Bynum, Gordan, Hamilton, and a soon to be resigned Stuckey? Everyone knew we needed a big man and Macklin seemed like the kind of guy who might actually contribute.
My federal building is way cooler than your federal building.
I’m not sure I’d call it a mistake so late in the draft, but I definitely wasn’t a fan of the pick. Macklin was an experienced, well-coached big man with enough athleticism to inflate his value a bit in individual workouts. I think Joe’s realistic expectation from the 52nd pick was to get a big body who could make the roster, and he still managed to do that.
If anything this pick sends a message that Dumars is actively looking for role players instead of steals late in the draft, which is a puzzling way to go about things. Every year there are a handful of intriguing second round guys that I’d love for the Pistons to end up with, and we always end up letting them pass. Very frustrating.
hoopspeak.com/college
searchingforbillyedelin.com
detroit.sbnation.com
Two picks later went
a big, tough, physical player who’s more doughy than athletic, more smart and physical than talented, but only 22, a protype pick-and-popper, and averaging 15/8 professionally which is pretty much the standard for him.
I vote yes.
In other news
the Lakers cut Derrick Caracter today. I liked him pre-draft, and was surprised by his play in 2010’s summer league. Might he be worth a phone call, Jod? (h/t to pistonpowered).
I remember him pushing our guys around in summer league. He looked like a man compared to a bunch of Austin Dayes.
by garrettelliott on Feb 7, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
He looked like a man compared to a bunch of Austin Dayes.
In a flash, I just saw the future of Austin Daye. In two years, he’s cut from the NBA, but ends up buying a D-League team and moving it to Austin Texas where he is player/coach/gm. They will be known as the Austin Dayes.
Dude is a total asshole, he's like a slightly less talented Cousins with more problems
Lakers’ Derrick Caracter arrested in New Orleans IHOP after alleged battery of waitress
Arrested in New Orleans…Alleged Battery of a waitress…Eating IHOP in the middle of the season…
There is just way too much wrong here, and this is just the first thing I found when I searched this guy
Welcome... to the Wallace-hood
handsomerob you and caracter are like wiener cousins of domestic abuse!
follow me on twitter, unless you dont want to.
I wonder what Steve Kays thinks about Caracter?
the discovery of this similar opinion was not mine, but of our own MFPackey on dem tweets.
oh Steve
I just went to Draft Express to see Caracter’s likeness projections and his best case was Jackie Butler, worst case Marcus Pfizer, which makes no sense bc Fizer had a better career. Fun anyway.
at a rebound rate of 11.3% i have to question this suggestion. and it’s not like he tore up the d-league ala Amir. If you can’t tear up the d-league at something – Russell with assists – you’re probably not NBA caliber.
Hence my suggestion of Jeff Adrien, who can’t shoot for shit, but he does have a 17.5% rebound rate for whatever position he plays. I think SF, but he’s an upgrade in potential.
Fuck Derrick Caracter. Waitress beater.
May you toil and rot in the d-leagues forth hence. You cannot spell Derrick without Dick, you dick.
That goddamn Okra and beans got you Oprah in jeans. Seems to me a little lean cuisine, wouldn't hurt much- Agh don't touch! -Obie Trice
Discount Double Choke, 2011 Packers.
When I think it’s funny to make offhand, crass jokes about “everbody beating IHOP waitresses”, it makes me feel better about humanity that other people stand up and push back against the notion. I’m saying this in seriousness, I should strive to be more like MFSky.
My children kid me
that IHOP is my most favourite restaurant in the world (we no longer have them in Eastern Canada – I said). Don’t be down on the IHOP.
MFMP prematurely telling it like it is
I agree though. 2nd round picks are crap shoots to begin with, and late 2nd round picks even more so, but to take one with zero potential to develop is essentially a waste of a pick. This is the kind of pick you waste on potential if your going to waste it, which lets be real, what 52nd pick isn’t a waste? Thing is you have to at least give yourself a shot.
Having said that we still have no idea about Macklin. If he’s even half-way decent that’s fine, but your argument is if he was he should be getting playing time by now given the front court situation, and given that he isn’t he must suck. His college numbers don’t point towards any level of success on the NBA level, nor does his age or his selection in the draft. Given all we know about him the pick was a waste. The sample size is too small to say we know any different.
Funny story – it’s quite possible Dumars wasted that whole draft. Time will tell.
by mcflies on Feb 7, 2012 10:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’m really hating myself for thinking about Vernon Macklin right now. We must be fucking nuts (fanatics?) to be considering the quality of a shitty second round draft pick on this supremely shitty team. Shit fuck.
"Go shitty team, go" -Kriz
by BandWagonerPaysTheDues on Feb 8, 2012 3:32 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Mike, you're going wrong about this. Look at that smile...
and tell me it was a mistake.
Fire Joe Dumars
Nope
It was on point. Dude was a 52nd pick so he should be expected to earn about 1.6 win shares in his first four years in the league, based on this chart that I found via Piston Powered. So given that he has about .2 winshares a third of the way through his rookie season, he should be able to scoop up 1.6 through the first 4 years in the league. He is about what you can expect from a 52nd pick.
He isn’t a winning lottery ticket or a Draft Day coup in the way that Isaiah Thomas was, and if we drafted Isaiah Thomas, he probably wouldn’t be either. Isaiah Thomas happened to be in a perfect position to contribute. We don’t need another guard less than 6’6", especially an hour and a half after taking Brandon Knight with the pick.
At the same time, Macklin is doing what a 52nd pick should do, he’s a cheap end of the bench Big, that’s what that pick is for. I would rather the Pistons establish trade value for Maxiell, Let Jonas and Greg get all the minutes they can handle, and put Ben on the floor so they can benefit from his wisdom before I want to see if this scratch-off lottery ticket is going to make me a millionaire.
Welcome... to the Wallace-hood
sample size
is minute at this point. for all we know Macklin could be complete garbage and end up having negative win shares from this day forward. given his current win shares per 48 the guy should be playing 40 minutes a night and ending his career with over 50 win shares.
you can draft a cheap end of the bench big that isn’t 25 and didn’t suck in college too. you could draft one with potential. Macklin will never be anything but a cheap end of the bench big.
as for Thomas, I just didn’t see us taking another guard after taking Knight. For all the people wanting Thomas there would have been more going really? Another PG? How about a fucking big man you idiot?! And then he took a big man, and now we get to complain about it. Good times.
Macklin's value
There is value to having a guy like Macklin on the team strictly in the sense that you want to secure rights to a guy who you think can help your team, even if just on the practice floor. He came in with an NBA-level body, was already 25, had no character questions that I’m aware of.
Maybe Dumars was impressed with his work ethic and knew that he could rely on the kid to bring it to the vets every day in practice. Macklin was the last U.S.-based big man taken in the entire draft so its not like they whiffed on a gem.
Follow me on Twitter @sean_corp
Still...
We played 5 games in 6 days. Our current frontcourt features 3 players who should actually be playing PF or C – one is a 37 year old who should never be playing 5 games in 6 nights, and the other two are now our starters. With CV out, it makes no sense that the only way Macklin was able to crack the lineup during this 5 game stretch.
At the very least, he should have helped rest Monroe for a few extra minutes and at the most should have received most of if not all of Ben Wallace’s minutes in the 2nd and 4th games.
I can understand the sentiment that Macklin may just be a practice squad big, but it still makes no sense that with the intensity of our schedule, the injuries in our frontcourt, and the status of our available big men, Macklin still hasn’t even cracked the lineup outside of garbage time.
What makes even less sense is that in garbage time, Macklin has actually shown an ability to:
- Pick & complete his roll to the basket resulting in a few alley-oop dunks (Monroe is the only other big that appears to be comfortable rolling all the way to the basket at this point)
- Show quick feet on post moves with his back to the basket
- An ability to alter shots on defense
- An ability to rebound the basketball
All of these things are attributes that this team is in desperate need of. We all believe that Frank is a pretty smart guy and so we should give him the benefit of the doubt that he’s utilizing Macklin in the right way for this team. But maybe the right way of using Macklin is to have him playing against Monroe and Wallace in practice every day. Maybe playing him during games would actually mean MORE wins for this team instead of LESS. And maybe, just maybe, Frank, Dumars, and Gores are on the same page as to what this season is about – Tanking.
Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.
by The Boourns on Feb 8, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The thing that stuck in my mind......
was the comment that 2 of the last 5 second round picks
are starting in the NBA for OTHER teams.
I think that is a bigger indictment of Joe Dumars management than
all the rest.
Yes
Now, I think one of those picks is Budinger? I’m not sure, who those picks are but If I can recall correctly, the Pistons have a habit of letting their 2nd round picks go before they even have a chance to play in a pistons uniform and they go to different teams to contribute.
I really don’t think Singler is coming to Detroit at all. He might just stay in Spain. I know I would. This team is a mess. Thinking about this roster makes me soul wince.
2nd rounders
Afflalo, Delfino, Jerebko, Okur, and Johnson I believe.
Dumars made that pick for Morey most likely.
I’m thinking Dumars has had more success in the 2nd round than the 1st.
I just want Macklin to smash heads. Come in, change the tone of the game by being Rick Mahorn, then sit down on the bench after a job well done.
by garrettelliott on Feb 8, 2012 12:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
So, when I started reading this article, for some reason I thought it was going to be a story about how the Pistons accidentally drafted Macklin. You know, as in we had someone else in mind and JOD just got confused and blurted out the first name that came into his mind when the time came. I don’t know whether to be relieved or disappointed that we purposefully picked him.
This may have happened in the past…
by Mike Payne on Feb 8, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
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