Most of you will hate this... but I still love you. I want to share anyway.
So while we may be slightly disappointed for not getting Davis #1.
We can still hope to get Andre Drummond!
First I just want to say that I'd be perfectly cool with Henson/Crowder/Machado, and have been for a while. Others I like are Meyers Leonard (center), Kyle Oquinn (pf), and Jesse Sanders (pg). I'd actually prefer Leonard over Henson, for reasons I'll discuss here:
My WYSIWYG (What you see is what you get) rating system.
1. production - stats matter most in evaluation because its what they actually do
2. skills - skills translate most to the NBA because they are in the brain, which is the biggest tool we have
3. talent - natural God-given ability determines the ceiling of the player
4. size - in the NBA, it matters
5. athleticism - it matters some, but not a lot
6. character - you shouldn't eat or dramaqueen yourself out of the NBA
7. system - a prospect in a good system can be way overvalued, a prospect in a bad coach/system can be way undervalued. System/Coaching/playing in/out of position, can inflate or deflate production. This is part of observation and understanding the game beyond stats. If you were to quantify this rating, a player in a good system actually loses points.
8. Competition - Competition also is a small factor. Someone who plays against weaklings could be overvalued.
(Just my opinion... and I haven't really looked at guards/wings a lot)
Best production in this draft:
Davis Robinson Henson Zeller Marshall Crowder Machado Sullinger Royce Kidd Gilchrist
Best skills in the draft:
Davis Henson (defensive) Zeller Marshall (passing) Sullinger PJones (Offensive) Lillard (offensive) DLamb Nicholson(offensive) Barnes Q Miller
Best Size in Draft:
Davis Drummond Leonard TRoss PJONes JLamb Royce
Best Athleticism in Draft:
Davis Drummond Leonard PJones Henson JTaylor DLamb KiddGilchrist TRobinson
Best Character in this draft: based on leadership ability and consistent improvements made to own game.
Sullinger KiddGilchrist Davis Henson Zeller TRobinson Draymond
Players hurt by their system (could be slightly undervalued)
Leonard Drummond Q Miller PJOnes JLamb
Players helped by their system (could be slightly overvalued)
Marshall Zeller Henson Barnes Kidd Gilchrist
Now, to the subject of the post...
Why I would be still be excited to get Andre Drummond: Maximizing the Moose.
Pistons need a center more than anything else. A PF would be good, but a center would be great. Despite all the talk about Monroe being a great, good, or at least adequate center - its plain to see that he would be a few degrees better defending bigs smaller than him. Adding a core big that cannot guard big centers gives Monroe less of an advantage. Monroe works as a center, but he doesn't dominate as a center. As a PF, he could nearly dominate with his skill.
If Monroe is our "franchise" for now, then we need to maximize his value on the offensive and defensive end. The rookie big man this year not only has to "complement" Monroe, but also "maximize" Monroe by giving Monroe an easier defensive assignment against PFs. Our biggest chance to maximize the value of our franchise player (since we didn't get the only franchise player in this draft "Anthony Davis") is to draft a player that can come in and defend centers, thereby maximizing our franchise Moose.
I don't see anybody trading away any strong centers this summer, so the draft is our best and cheapest opportunity. Maximizing what you already have is what intelligent people do, instead of wishing for what they don't have. We have Monroe and this draft pick... and an improving Stuckey, and Knight who at least works hard and can shoot 3s. We can more than complement, but maximize what we have.
Why Drummond: Shoot for the Star
Drummond Has best combination of talent, skills and size of all centers, and does not lack athleticism. Zeller may have him beat on production, but Zeller benefitted from 4 years of one of the best systems/coaches in the history of basketball, and the best PG in the nation.
Drummond, as a freshman played in a bad system for him, an underperforming team. His coach, (not known to be exactly a players coach) was also injured). He played with pass first guards trying to replace Kemba Walker's production without Kemba's quickness/skill. He shared minutes with an upperclassman who had the same role he had, who wasn't happy about it.
(Its worth noting that the other lottery center Meyers Leonard played on a dysfunctional underperforming team with shoot first guards, while Zeller and Henson played with the best pg in the nation as well as a coach that focused on getting them the ball)
Drummond has also shown small character improvements by losing 22 pounds since the end of the NCAA season. Not exactly a slacker. He seems to be eager to prove himself.
How it could happen:
1 New Orleans Anthony Davis - obviously the best... (sniff, sniff)
2 Charlotte Thomas Robinson - match him with Biyombo, so his lack of size doesn't matter as much. He brings leadership and character, and production - which is most important.
3 Washington Bradley Beal - some say MKG but I dont think he shoots well enough to match with Wall or Kemba. Wall/Beal would be potentially one of the best backcourts in the league if they reach their potential. Beal has a good halfcourt game, Wall likes to run.
4 Cleveland Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - fits perfectly with the skilled, sharpshooting, and balanced game of Irving.
5 Sacramento Harrison Barnes - they need a smart wing, non-ball dominant, who can hit shots without dribbling a lot. They don't need Drummond, he wouldn't bring the leadership they are lacking.
6 Portland Kendall Marshall - they have a great PF, but they wouldnt take Drummond after dealing with Thabeet and Oden. They need a pg, they'll take Marshall here or at 11. Perry Jones could jump here as a Small Forward (his natural position) since I don't think Batum is under contract. Another smart move for Portland would be to get Sullinger here and put him at Center since Aldridge is an oversized PF that can play outside of the post.
7 Golden St. Perry Jones could wow in the workouts and they could put him at his natural position. They have Biedrins, Lee, and Bogut so they don't need Drummond. They could take Lamb, but they already have Klay.
8 Toronto Jeremy Lamb - best SG potential in the draft. Beal is getting the hype, but Lamb is the deal. Or they could get Damian Lillard as PG. They have Biedrins, Valuncianas, and Ed Davis, so they don't need Drummond. They could also take Terrence Ross or Terrence Jones if they want a small forward.
9 Detroit Drummond Drops! We get the best center prospect, and our Biyombo pain is healed. Put him in the right system and watch the manchild grow. However, the most important thing he does is put Monroe in position to guard Power Forwards with his size and footspeed. Monroe wouldn't have to bang with centers and 7 footers. It maximizes our best asset - the Moose.
If this doesn't workout, we could just get Leonard... another potentially undervalued center who complements AND maximizes Monroe, the cornerstone.