FanPost

My Non-Prediction Psuedo-Prediction of the Piston's 2012-13 Season.

I don't like making predictions though I really like what I read earlier:

stevenyc
I don't know if I'm right
but on the Internet, it is more important to be first than to be right.

Well, I was on PistonPowered earlier and saw that the author thinks that we're likely to have a lottery pick this year. Well, I honestly believe that we'll squeak into the playoffs, probably lose in the first round, but I stated my odds for what teams I thought would make it into the playoffs:

*hangs head for lack of faith shown by Mr. Feldman*

I really believe that the Pistons have the players, coach and ability to make the 8th seed in the East this year.

XstreamINsanity’s 2012-11 Playoff Prediction (in no particular order)
Miami – LOCK
Philadelphia – LOCK
Boston – LOCK
Indiana – LOCK
Brooklynn – 80% Chance (Chemistry issues)
New York – 80% Chance
Atlanta – 50% Chance
Orlando – 30% Chance
Chicago – 60% Chance (Really depends on Rose)
Milwaukee - 40% Chance
Toronto – 25% Chance
Cleveland – 30% Chance
Washington – 20% Chance
Charlotte – 1% Chance
Detroit – 35% Chance

And I’m not saying that as a homer either, but based off of the transactions each team has made this year along with lingering injuries and draft choices, that’s how I see it playing out. There are four teams that have a higher percentage than Detroit, but that’s why I used percentages rather than rankings. Atlanta I may have too high after losing Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams. Milwaukee may also be too high as they’re going to have to learn to gel and we’ll have to see how Rubio is off of his injury. Have faith my man, have faith. I don’t want that pick this year because it’s a weak draft, so let’s hope we make it into the playoffs.

Well, that made me look into the schedule a little harder:

  • 19 Back-to-Backs
  • 44 games are against 2011-12 Playoff teams (22 away, 22 home)
  • 30 games are against Western Conference teams (16 2011-12 Playoff, 8 of those away)
  • Start the season on a 6 game Western Conference trip (longest road trip of season, two other 4 game road trips) after the season/home opener
  • Longest home stand is 5 games
  • Three stints of 4 games in 5 nights
  • We play the following teams:
    • Atlanta - 3 (2 home,1 away)
    • Boston - 3 (2 home,2 away)
    • Brooklyn - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Charlotte - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Chicago - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Cleveland - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Dallas - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Denver - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Golden State - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Houston - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Indiana - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • L.A. Clippers - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • L.A. Lakers - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Memphis - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Miami - 3 (1 home,2 away)
    • Milwaukee - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Minnesota - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • New Orleans - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • New York - 4 (1 home,1 away)
    • Oklahoma City - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Orlando - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Philadelphia - 3 (1 home,2 away)
    • Phoenix - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Portland - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Sacramento - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • San Antonio - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Toronto - 4 (2 home,2 away)
    • Utah - 2 (1 home,1 away)
    • Washington - 4 (2 home,2 away)

So you might be wondering what all of the above means. Well, in a response to someone's reply to my post on the article, I stated why Toronto and Washington had lower chances than the Pistons:

NINE of Washington’s thirteen players (9/13 or 69%) have played 3 years or less in the NBA. That number goes to TEN of thirteen if you go to only 4 years in the NBA. That’s a lot of youth, much of it unproven and they showed major chemistry issues last year. Their only veterans are Nene, Okafor and Ariza (could be a chemistry issue).

The Raptors currently show 18 people on their roster, so I can’t specifically say how many of them will actually play for the Raptors this year. More than likely only one of the FOUR rookies they have will see real minutes. On paper, they look like a bunch of role players or semi-stars. I did give them a 25% chance which was higher than Washington. Last year, 9 of their 23 wins were against playoff teams and they played a playoff team 39 times (by raw eye count). That’s just over 25%. And look who they have in their division: Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Brooklyn. All of those teams are likely to be in the playoffs again and Toronto plays them more than others.

The reason why I have the Pistons at 35% is because Coach has been really getting with the guys a lot this season, they’ve been making sure to be in the gym a lot more this off season (since they can), some vets went to Summer League just to practice with the guys, we have great potential with two brand new 6’11″+ guys for defense, Knight should (crosses fingers) be a better distributor this year, and we finally look like we have Chemistry again.

But did you really say "more depth and talent in their rosters than the Pistons ever have."? You must not know much about Detroit basketball. :)

This really wants me to look more in depth into the rosters of the teams that we play so I can truly determine what chances the Pistons have in making the playoffs this year. I've had some tell me Chicago should be a lock because of their defense alone (maybe true) and I was told my percentages don't add up (duh, I made them off the top of my head, I didn't actually do any calculations).

My point in making this post was to get insight based on our schedule set up (seems middle of the pack in terms of SOS though I admit I didn't run the same analysis on all 29 other teams), how our roster stacks up to those competing one of the last 2-3 spots likely to be left in the playoffs, and other changes that have happened around the league lately. I feel comfortable in saying that the Pistons have about a 35% chance of making it into the playoffs. It's not like it's a 50% chance, but I definitely think it's better than last year. Thoughts?

FanPosts are user-created posts from the Detroit Bad Boys community and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of all fans or the staff at DBB. The DBB staff reserves the right at any time to edit the contents of FanPosts as they reasonably see fit.

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