I barely watch college basketball. I watch any Michigan State game I can catch, and parts of the tournament. So I think it's fair to say that I honestly know very little about many of the players who are likely to go in the lottery. The one player projected to go in the lottery that I've seen play the most would be Trey Burke, whom I barely watched more than Victor Oladipo. However, I'm going to try and determine how the Lottery will end up going. Due to lack of knowledge of college players, I won't dare go any further than that.
|Pick||Team||2013-14 Roster||Avail. Cap||Other Picks|
|#1||Cavaliers||10 (PG - 1, SG - 3, SF - 2, PF - 2, C - 2)||$25,405,880||#19, #31, #33|
|#2||Magic||12 (PG - 1, SG - 3, SF - 3, PF - 4, C - 1)||$4,203,343||#51|
|#3||Wizards||10 (PG - 1, SG - 2, SF - 3, PF - 2, C - 2)||$604,296||#37, #54|
|#4||Bobcats||10 (PG - 2, SG - 3, SF - 1, PF - 2, C - 2)||$17,579,673||N/A|
|#5||Suns||13 (PG - 4, SG - 2, SF - 1, PF - 4, C - 2)||$4,630,860||#30, #57|
|#6||Pelicans||10 (PG - 2, SG - 2, SF - 2, PF - 3, C - 1)||$23,042,668||N/A|
|#7||Kings||12 (PG - 4, SG - 1, SF - 2, PF - 4, C - 1)||$17,292,356||#36|
|#8||Pistons||10 (PG - 2, SG - 1, SF - 2, PF - 3, C - 2)||$22,827,280||#38, #56|
|#9||Wolves||10 (PG - 4, SG - 1, SF - 1, PF - 3, C - 1)||$10,863,418||#26, #52, #59|
|#10||Blazers||10 (PG - 2, SG - 3, SF - 2, PF - 2, C - 1)||$10,854,862||#39, #40, #45|
|#11||76ers||8 (PG - 1, SG - 1, SF - 2, PF - 1, C - 3)||$11,806,643||#35, #42|
|#12||Thunder||10 (PG - 2, SG - 3, SF - 1, PF - 2, C - 2)||-$8,119,439||#29, #32|
|#13||Mavericks||8 (PG - 2, SG - 3, SF - 2, PF - 1, C - 0)||$16,583,651||#44|
|#14||Jazz||7 (PG - 1, SG - 2, SF - 1, PF - 2, C - 1)||$32,303,191||#21, #46|
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers - Nerlens Noel
I don't feel the need to do in depth analysis on this pick for a few reasons. Though the Cavs only have one PG returning, they could easily get a backup with their other three picks or cap space. They're not likely to take an SG due to having Waiters and 2 other SG. I don't believe there are any SF or PF that warrant the top pick that would drastically help the Cavs. Also, the Cavs have Anderson Varejao which provides them a lot of leeway.
Varejao will give Noel the time he needs to fully heal and time as a backup when he comes back. And then the following year, Varejao becomes a huge trade chip or even simply released depending on Noel's progress. The Cavs have a team option on Varejao in 2014-15 and he's slated to make $9.8M. The free agent market that following year will be much more enticing than this years and they could likely go after a better SF/PF by releasing Varejao. But if they wanted to, they could use his expiring contract for a trade. Noel is the perfect pick for Cleveland.
#2 Orlando Magic - Trey Burke
Again, I don't think there is need for in depth analysis on this one as I honestly can't see them picking anyone else due to their roster structure and cap limitations. It really hurt them that they didn't get the #1 overall pick as they have only one true center on the team. Jameer Nelson is 31 and has probably hit his peak. Afflalo is 27, Lamb 21 and Moore 24, so I don't think McLemore or Oladipo is an option for them. When you also consider how Vucevic is only 22, I don't think they're going to spring for Alex Len or Cody Zeller with the second pick.
I wonder if they'd be willing to trade the #2 pick and Afflalo to the Pistons for Knight and the #8 pick. This way they could take Len or Zeller with a lower pick, receive a "point guard", and free a little bit of cap space (nearly $5M). Yes, I understand that this trade seems like highway robbery, but they may be willing to "tank" another season and go after Andrew Wiggins. Trey Burke won't get this team to the playoffs alone.
#3 Washington Wizards - Otto Porter
Wow, the Wizards are in quite a bind. They don't have any cap room really, they need a backup PG unless Beal is able to handle those responsibilities (I'm not fully confident he can), but their SFs are weak and they already have three. However, I think Washington would be best served here by grabbing Otto Porter and then getting a backup PG with their other two picks. There is a slight possibility this could be one of the teams that actually reach and might grab Michael Carter-Williams or C.J. McCollum, or they may end up trading their pick back some. They have $27.5M tied up in their C position alone next season.
Seeing as how they do need a backup PG and already have 3 SF on the roster, this could be one of the teams we could trade picks with and free up cap space. We could swap picks (for us to get McLemore), take on Okafor and give them Middleton/Singler and with our pick they grab MCW or McCollum. This frees them up of over $12M in cap space and give the Pistons a backup C for the year, freeing up more cap space for the next free agent class.
#4 Charlotte Bobcats - Shabazz Muhammad
According to ESPN.com's roster listing for the Bobcats, they have 2 PG (Sessions and Walker) and 3 SG (Gordon, Henderson and Taylor). However, I more so see it as 1 PG and 4 SG, so I can't see them grabbing McLemore or Oladipo without having a few trades up their sleeves. They are lacking desperately
everywhere on the court at SF and sadly, Muhammad would be the best fit for them (Bennett would be if he could play SF, but I doubt he'll be able to keep up with NBA SFs). They do have some cap space and may decide to go in another direction, and they don't have any more picks, so they'll need to use this pick wisely. They may look at Muhammad and think that his athleticism will fit in perfectly with Walker and MKG and may even play Muhammad at SG occasionally for what would be a highly athletic lineup, although extremely horrible to watch.
This is one that could be tricky, but could be beneficial for all involved. If we could do as MFMP suggested elsewhere and pry #13 from Dallas, we could then offer #8 and #13 to Charlotte along with giving them Singler (fills the SF need) in hopes that we "close up" the Ben Gordon trade. (They'd have to agree to one of the picks fulfilling the trade.) They'd then have two lottery picks to go along with $17M in cap to fill their roster.
#5 Phoenix Suns - Anthony Bennett
I honestly think the Suns would be better off with Muhammad as they only have one guaranteed SF returning next year and not much cap space to work with. However, I think Phoenix would be willing to try Bennett at SF. If not, he'd likely soon replace Scola who's 33.
#6 New Orleans Pelicans - Ben McLemore
I realize that the lowest anyone else has McLemore going is #4, and I think that's under the assumption of teams picking for Best Player Available, but my picks are off of need/roster structure and what that team is likely able to do with their available cap space. Because this team is pretty well balanced at the positions, McLemore is the BPA and fits a need. Though ESPN says that Davis was a PF, we all know he could likely play Center (once he gets a little more weight).
#7 Sacramento Kings - Alex Len
Their cap space could likely go down as they have three players (including Evans) hitting the RFA market. Depending on how they feel Evans is on returning, this could change. But if they feel good he is, then they're likely to go with a center as Fredette or Evans can occasionally slide over to SG to fill that gap. Even if they can't, they have a ton of cap space to fill holes. But if they don't feel Evans is likely to return, I see them taking Oladipo.
#8 Detroit Pistons - Victor Oladipo
BPA and fills a need, enough said.
#9 Minnesota Timberwolves - Cody Zeller
They're severely lacking at SG, SF and C, and considering who's left on the board, they'd be best to go with Zeller. They may resign Pekovic, but even if they did, the next best best SG or SF is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Really depends on how they feel about resigning Pekovic.
#10 Portland Trail Blazers - Kelly Olynyk
Assuming the Blazers can't resign Hickson, they'll be very thin at center.
#11 Philadelphia 76ers - C.J. McCollum
They are severely lacking in many areas, so this would be a BPA that also kind of fills a need. They'd better hope they can resign Bynum which they can't do without going over the cap, or they're severely screwed next year.
#12 Oklahoma City Thunder - TRADED
I see them trading this pick. PG, SF and PF are solidified for quite some time. Sefolosha is a cheap option at SG and Perkins is ok at C with Thabeet as his backup. Plus, they also have two picks very close to each other at the end of the first and beginning of the second round and are over the cap. There's nothing here that they need that they can't get with their other two picks.
#13 Dallas Mavericks - TRADED
Hopefully this pick is traded to Detroit, but we do know that Dallas is shopping this pick in an effort to relieve cap to try and get Howard and/or CP3.
#14 Utah Jazz - Michael Carter-Williams
Honestly, this pick could go a few different ways. However, seeing as how they're likely to bring back Millsap or Jefferson, already have Favors and Kantor as the other PF/C tandem, Burks, Hayward and Evans are "alright", I think they'll go after a scoring PG compared to what else is on the board at that time.
So that's my take on how I think it will likely go down. Obviously, I think it's atrocious that Muhammad could potentially go before McLemore, and I honestly doubt that it does. But if teams were picking for needs more so than BPA, this is how I think it would go. I honestly hope Detroit is able to make one of the Trade Possibilities to get into the top 4, along with attempting to get Dallas' #13. Now I wish the draft was tomorrow to get the anticipation over with.