The Answer: When they have a day off...When they play...
That's an intro joke that writes itself.
'k, a pet project of mine has been following to what degree lotsa/few shots in games by Jennings, Smith, and Monroe correlate with Piston losses and victories this season. The clear trend thus far was that the number of shots for Smith and Moose don't seem related to the outcome of games. (Once again, I fully recognize that correlation and causation are not the same thing). At the 31 game mark of the season, however, a look at Jennings number of shots in a game was a very good predictor of how the game went. Below is the chart after 31 games and the updated one after yesterday's miserable 43rd game:
|Jennings||12/28/2013 (31 games)||1/26/2014 (43 games)|
|0-10shots||4 and 0||5 and 1|
|11-14shots||5 and 4||7 and 8|
|0-14shots||9 and 4||12 and 9|
|15-19shots||2 and 6||2 and 8|
|20+shots||2 and 6||2 and 8|
|15+shots||4 and 12||4 and 16|
|0-10shots||2 and 3||2 and 6|
|11-14shots||5 and 5||5 and 8|
|0-14shots||7 and 8||7 and 14|
|15-19shots||5 and 5||7 and 7|
|20+shots||2 and 4||3 and 5|
|15+shots||7 and 9||10 and 12|
|0-11shots||8 and 10||10 and 14|
|12-15shots||5 and 5||6 and 8|
|16+shots||1 and 2||1 and 4|
|12+shots||6 and 7||7 and 12|
Oddly, at least for me, a shot-happy Smith has been accompanied by more success. The team is now 10-12 when Josh shoots fifteen or more times and 3-3 the last half dozen times he's done so. (The Pistons are a miserable 0-6 when Smith shoots less since the last time I checked.)
Moose seems to remain the non-factor, in terms of how his shots correspond to wins. A slight trend is emerging--that games with fewer Mooseshots are more likely to have been won by the Pistons. But over the last dozen, 1-5 (when Moose shoots a dozen times or more) and 2-4 (when he shoots less) isn't the type of gap we see with Smith.
And then there's Jennings. I am careful not to isolate the blame on Jennings specifically, but from early in the year, I noticed that games featuring lots of Brandon Jennings shots usually ended up with us frowning. It's happening again; the Pistons have been 3-5 over this stretch when Jennings keeps his FGA under 15. And once he hits that "magic number"...th-th-that's all, folks. The Pistons have a winning record when Brandon Jennings shoots the ball fewer than 15 times. They are 4-16 when he shoots more.
This is probably good enough work to earn me a D+ in Mr. Barton's Sports Statistics course next year. But make of it what you will.