Josh Smith is gone. Detroit needs a new '3'.
I did a post on this topic last season when it was becoming apparent that Josh Smith was not going to work as a '3' in the Pistons' system. I looked back this week at the players that came up in the search, as well as some semi-prophecy (or at least foreshadowing) that was dropped in the comment section. It was fun. So I decided to update the research for this season.
I know looking at new players doesn't make a lot of sense with the trade deadline past/the season still going/not knowing how the draft plays out/free agency being far away. It would have made a lot more sense a month ago, but I have three boys under three years old, so when I have time to pay attention to basketball, that makes the timing right for me.
Looking ahead it seems that 3 point shooting from the wing will once again be a high priority, although not necessarily top priority depending on what happens with PF and PG. This post will only look at the wing position, mostly the SF. I'm going to stick with more conventional statistics to narrow the field down and let you advanced metrics guys analyze from the comment section. Here are the criteria:
-player is a starter
-player is or could be a '3'
-player has started at least 10 games
-player is shooting 35% or better from 3 point range
-player is attempting at least 2 3FG per game
All stats are from this season, and only from games in which the players have started.
GP |
MIN |
FGA |
FG% |
3PA |
3P% |
FTA |
FT% |
REB |
AST |
TOV |
STL |
PTS |
|
34 |
32.4 |
12 |
38.6 |
7.3 |
36.1 |
3.3 |
81.1 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
2 |
1.8 |
14.6 |
|
28 |
32.3 |
12.4 |
41.5 |
7.1 |
36.4 |
1 |
75 |
3.1 |
3 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
13.6 |
|
54 |
29.8 |
9.6 |
41.5 |
5.9 |
38.1 |
1.4 |
83.3 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
11.5 |
|
54 |
33.1 |
12.5 |
45.1 |
5.3 |
37.5 |
2.9 |
73.5 |
4.8 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
15.4 |
|
22 |
27 |
6.9 |
48.3 |
4.3 |
46.3 |
1.2 |
85.2 |
4.4 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
9.7 |
|
40 |
27.4 |
10.2 |
41.1 |
5.1 |
37.3 |
0.9 |
88.6 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
1 |
0.7 |
11.1 |
|
38 |
28.8 |
7.3 |
43.7 |
4.2 |
40.9 |
1.3 |
77.6 |
3.6 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
9.1 |
|
48 |
31.7 |
9 |
46.3 |
4.3 |
39.1 |
2.6 |
71.7 |
5.1 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
11.9 |
|
55 |
35.1 |
14.4 |
45.8 |
4.4 |
38.8 |
5.9 |
80.8 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
2.7 |
1.4 |
19.6 |
|
53 |
29.7 |
7.8 |
45.8 |
4.4 |
36.5 |
1.4 |
79.2 |
4 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
9.8 |
|
52 |
35.4 |
13.8 |
43.8 |
4.4 |
37 |
2.4 |
80.8 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
15.6 |
|
43 |
24.5 |
6.8 |
37.9 |
3.7 |
40.1 |
0.6 |
75 |
2.7 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
7 |
|
54 |
26.8 |
9.3 |
45.1 |
4 |
38 |
3.4 |
79.7 |
4.2 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
12.6 |
|
32 |
30.9 |
10.6 |
46.6 |
3.2 |
40.2 |
1.8 |
86.4 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
12.8 |
|
40 |
29.3 |
8.3 |
41.6 |
3.6 |
36.6 |
1.4 |
83.9 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
9.4 |
|
20 |
26 |
6.1 |
44.3 |
2.9 |
40.4 |
1.2 |
65.2 |
2.7 |
2 |
1 |
0.8 |
7.3 |
|
43 |
35.5 |
14.4 |
47.5 |
3.2 |
38.2 |
3.8 |
78.5 |
6.7 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1 |
17.9 |
|
49 |
32.9 |
10.8 |
49.1 |
2.8 |
38.7 |
3.7 |
75.4 |
5.1 |
2 |
1.7 |
1 |
14.4 |
|
54 |
29.2 |
8 |
49.8 |
2.6 |
42.9 |
1.8 |
72.4 |
5.7 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
10.4 |
|
52 |
39.2 |
14.3 |
46 |
3.1 |
35.6 |
7.3 |
84.1 |
5.9 |
3.3 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
20.3 |
All stats are from nba.com and were accurate as of 2/25/15 before game time.
That's 20 names, listed in order of how many 3FGs they make per game. Now to break down their availability.
Unrestricted Free Agents |
J.R. Smith |
Danny Green |
Mike Dunleavy |
DeMarre Carroll |
Paul Pierce |
Wesley Johnson |
Jared Dudley |
Luol Deng |
Restricted Free Agents |
Kyle Singler |
Khris Middleton |
Tobias Harris |
Jimmy Butler |
||||
Under Contract |
Robert Covington |
Chandler Parsons |
Shawne Williams |
Terrence Ross |
Gordon Hayward |
Matt Barnes |
Joe Johnson |
Harrison Barnes |
Shawne Williams is the only current Piston to qualify based on the stats.
Next, sorting the guys into age brackets. 19-24 fits with the current direction of the team, 25-30 could help but may not be ideal, 30+ would be a stop-gap or "mentor", and probably a Plan B(C?D?) after not getting a younger guy.
19-24 | Harrison Barnes(22) | Tobias Harris(22) | Khris Middleton(23) | Robert Covington(24) | Terrence Ross(24) | Gordon Hayward(24) | ||
25-30 | Jimmy Butler(25) | Kyle Singler(26) | Chandler Parsons(26) | Danny Green(27) | Wesley Johnson(27) | DeMarre Carroll(28) | J.R. Smith(29) | Luol Deng(29) |
30+ | Shawne Williams(29) | Jared Dudley(29) | Joe Johnson(33) | Mike Dunleavy(34) | Matt Barnes(34) | Paul Pierce(37) |
-I know Shawne Williams and Jared Dudley are in the wrong bracket. It makes the table fit on the page better.
-These ages were taken on 2/25/15. Some ages will be a year older by the time free agency starts.
Last time I stopped writing around here, and let you use the information to form your own opinions. But that only generated around 30 comments, and really, after the work I put in to track down all this information I'm hoping for more than that. So I'm going to give an opinion of my own, because then you fine folks will be able to either defend or demolish my opinion.
30+
-In the 30+ group, only one is UFA, and I think Pierce would be looking for a starting role. If Pierce is starting for us next year, I'm guessing something didn't go right.
25-29
-In the mid-range age group, I think you have to overpay to get Butler, Singler, or Green away from their current team.
-Parsons would only be there as a sign-and-trade option, which would again be Plan B or C.
-I don't want J.R., mostly because I don't think we have an on-court personality to keep him playing well. I could be totally wrong about his personality, I've never followed him closely.
-We should keep Shawne Williams if he can hold true to form so far this year.
-Wesley Johnson and Jared Dudley would fit better as role players rather than starters, so while I don't hate them, they're not my main focus.
-I could see Carroll and Deng as potential starters. I like Carroll more than Deng.
19-24
-Finally, looking at the young guys, I don't think Covington is going anywhere. He actually fits what the Sixers are going for (young/cheap/good).
-Ross and KCP seem to do a lot of the same things, or at least we hope that KCP will do them as well as Ross eventually, so I'm not looking there for S&T.
-Hayward would be a great Plan B S&T, but why would Monroe want to go to Utah, and why would they want to pay him? So that's probably not happening.
-Harrison Barnes would be a S&T. I'm skeptical of this Barnes' stats in the Golden State supercharged offense, but if that's where SVG is taking things, he could very well fit here too. Again, GS would have to like what Monroe brings more than the combination of what, for instance, David Lee and Harrison Barnes bring. Not sure about that one.
-This leaves RFA targets Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris. I like them both, although I'm admittedly not an expert on either player (I'm not an expert on anyone!).
So what do I think we should do? It breaks down like this...
Plan A: (Monroe stays, Jackson becomes everything we could possibly wish for and stays.) SVG signs Khris Middleton or Tobias Harris on non-max deals or Jimmy Butler on a max. Other pieces fill in.
Plan B: (Plan A, but RFA offers get matched.) Go after Carroll, Deng, or Pierce, in that order.
Plan C: (Monroe or Jackson force a sign-and-trade.) Try to get Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, or Harrison Barnes, in that order.
-I didn't look to make absolutely certain we could trade for Johnson, but seeing as there were plenty of trade options just last month, it should still be able to work, right?
Plan D: (Plan A/B/C all fail.) Wesley Johnson, Jared Dudley.
Plan D isn't terrible if Monroe and Jackson stay and are good. If Moose leaves and Jackson stinks and A/B/C all fail? Yeesh! At least we still have Dre.
*I didn't look at PF or PG free agents or trade possibilities in the case that Monroe or Jackson leaves. I didn't try to predict a draft pick. This was just looking at getting a wing player. I'm not putting in a plan for if Monroe stays but Jackson stinks. It's beyond my attention span anymore.
OK DBB, who do you want to see playing the 3 next year?