FanPost

Tobias Harris vs. Everybody (almost)



One look at Tobias Harris's overall numbers and its hard not to be impressed.

17 ppg 6 rpg 50% from 2 36.5% from 3. Not bad for the 19th pick in the 2011 NBA draft.

But watching Greg Monroe the last few years should tell you that there's more to stats than just what you see. Your value lies in how much you are able to affect the game. The NBA is filled with stat stuffers who honestly don't contribute to team wins. So lets dive deeper and see how Tobias Harris really compares to other free agent DBB favorites.

Real Shooting Percentages

I will be using advanced stats from nba.com and basketball reference. Old school.

Tobias Harris shoots 50% from everywhere within 2 point range. Out of 710 attempts (about 9 per game) he made 355. In 2015 he also shot 36.4% from 3 point range. His efg% (effective field goal) is .512%. How does this rank amongst other free agent forwards.

1. Demarre Carroll .579

2. Danny Green .566

3. Wesley Matthews .563

4. Khris Middleton .530

5. Kawhi Leonard .526

6. Draymond Green .516

7. Tobias Harris .512

Tobias Harris shot the most attempts per game than anyone on this list. 14 Which has more to do with his ability. Kyle Korver has an efg% of .671. But just as eye opening is the fact that Kyle only gets off 8 attempts per game. The year that Kyle had his highest fga (11.4) his efg% dropped dramatically to .518

Your ability to get shots off while remaining efficient is the difference between being good, and being great. Kevin Durant (for example) took over 20 shots per game last year while still maintaining a .560 efg% Josh Smith had an efg% of .403 while he was a member of the Pistons.

Playmaking

At the 3 position, its nice to have a guy that can make plays for himself and others. A higher ast to turnover ratio is generally an indicator of their ball handling skills (or at least their basketball IQ). To sort out the best playmakers at the wing positions I looked at AST % vs Turnover % while also factoring usage.The numbers below represent the differential between AST% vs Turnover % and their usage rate.

1. Kawhi Leonard 3.6 diff /22.5

2. Draymond Green 2.6 diff/17.2

3. Khris Middleton 1.9 diff/19.9

4. Wesley Matthews 1.8 diff/19.8

5. Danny Green (-0.2)diff/17.5

6. Tobias Harris (-1)diff/22.5

7. Demarre Carroll (-1)diff/16.9

These numbers suggest that Demarre Carroll is the worst playmaker out of this group. However Tobias Harris isnt much better. He has the same usage rate as Kawhi Leonard, but leonard is +4.6 over Tobias in the playmaking department. This is why Leonard is considered to be one of the better players in the NBA despite his stats being pedestrian. His numbers suggest that if you asked him to do more, he could. Tobias Harris numbers look more like what you would see from a power forward. Danny Green also has a negative playmaking differential. If you adjusted his usage rate to Tobias Harris, he'd likely have a similar differential.

Defensive Ratings

You cannot win without playing defense. Blocks and steals are important, but a true indicator of how well you play defense is how other players performed against you. The NBA (supposedly) tracks these numbers. i have my doubts about how these numbers are calculated, but right now its the best I've got to use. At least the numbers can be scaled against other players so, even if they are wrong, they are proportionately wrong. We're going to factor the total opponent fg%, and also break down their fg % at different spots on the court. The numbers below will be the TOTAL FG% |INSIDE 10 FT % | OUTSIDE 15 FT % | 3P% The player with the lowest overall opponent fg% will be ranked highest.

1. Draymond Green 39.1 FG%, 45.6 10FT%, 32.6 15FT%, 29.9 3P%

2. Khris Middleton 39.5 FG%, 54.7 10FT%, 32.7 15FT%, 32.1 3P%

3. Wesley Matthews 40.5 FG%, 50.3 10FT%, 34.9 15FT%, 32.8 3P%

4. Danny Green 42.7 FG%, 50.9 10FT%, 37.9 15FT%, 37.6 3P%

5. Kawhi Leonard 44.2 FG%, 51.3 10FT%, 38.3 15FT%, 38.2 3P%

6. Tobias Harris 44.4 FG%, 55.3 10FT%, 37.1 15FT%, 34.9 3P%

7. Demarre Carrol 45 FG%, 62.9 10FT%, 35% 15FT%, 30.8 3P%

Two things jump out immediately. Khris Middleton being ranked so high. The overall fg% and the 3p% is much better than what i thought. And, the fact that Leonard's numbers are so low. Widely considered one of the best defenders in the league, his opponents numbers would suggest otherwise. Even though Harris is ranked 6th overall, I'd actually have to rank him last out of these players. He's the biggest player out of this group, yet he gives up a higher at the basket (under 10ft) percentage than Danny Green or Wesley Matthews. His defensive 3p% is respectable. But it also indicates that he is in fact a perimeter player and not a potential power forward. But if we go back to the playmaking section, he was also one of the worst playmakers. So why would you want him on the outside?

I started this project with the thought that these numbers would back up the fact that Tobias is a good player, and he is. He can shoot, and he guards the perimeter well. However in total he is a negative player. He's going to have more turnovers than assists, and he doesn't have the ability, rebounding, or defensive prowess to ever truly be effective at power forward.

Based on these numbers, if you're looking for a good shooter, who can make plays, and shut down opposing players, Khris Middleton is your overall best option. Wesley Matthews is a great option as well, but he's recovering from an achilles injury. Besides those 2 and Kawhi Leonard, the only other player i would sign is Danny Green. He gives you great shooting, and pretty good defense. He is an above average rim protector at 6'6".

However he has below average play making skills, which suggests that he is a SF first. So if I have Stanley Johnson on my team, I would not sign a Danny Green to a long term contract. I would not sign Tobias Harris at an amount above 7 million per year, and only then with the mindset of bringing him off the bench. He'd be a tremendous 6th man.

Sources http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/middlkh01.html

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202083/tracking/defense/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

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