FanPost

Trader Stan: Stan Van Gundy's next big move

Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

DBB is just brimming with optimism these days. No, seriously.

I'm sure most of you have seen my optimistic forecast for this upcoming season, and based on the absurd number of recs(!), most of you at least want to drink the Kool-Aid.

But it's not just me... Bruce Leonard provides some evidence that Aron Baynes could be the next Bill Laimbeer, Joe.hubert thinks Marcus Morris will be a vital player in the Motor City, and BlackStockGuy is so high on Stanley Johnson that he's already pegging him a Future All-Star... and wants him to be the starting SG(?) - this year!

Nowhere to be found is resident pessimist/realist Mike Payne to rain on our parade, and even Ben Gulker let a bit of sunshine through the cloudy sky in his recent piece on the Jackson/Jennings pairing/idea/thing.

I'm sure there's a lot of classic homerism (and wishful thinking) going on here, but among those who follow the team closely, there genuinely seems to be good reason to have hope for the next several years of Pistons basketball.

Stan Van Gundy has been an absolute thief when it comes to obtaining solid contributors while giving up little to nothing in return. He's finding rotation players in places where no one else has even bothered to look. (I have to admit, I didn't even know who Anthony Tolliver was until they acquired him.)

Take a look at this quick summary of key trades he's made since December 2014. (I'm omitting the Jonas trade since JJ wanted out and Stan needed a body at SF.)

It isn't really news to DBB'ers that these are good deals for Detroit. But just take a step back and really look at what Stan Van Gundy has pulled off here. Of all the names on the left - what the Pistons gave up - how many of them will be starters in 2014-15? None. How many will be solid rotation guys? Maybe three. How many will even be on an NBA roster when the season begins? Again, maybe three.

And what did the Pistons get in return? One potential All-Star, two starters and two solid backups. All but Reggie are proven 3PT shooters.

I know, I know... I'm the resident optimist here, and of course it's possible that Reggie will underperform, Morris could fight KCP to defend his brother's honor, and Ilyasova could show up to camp out of shape. Maybe Tolliver shoots blanks this season. Maybe Blake never sees the court. But you can't deny that the 2015-16 Pistons, given expected development from young players, should be improved at every starting position except PF, and even that is a very minor downgrade due to the "fit" issue we've discussed a few million times here. They now have 12 guys who I'd actually feel comfortable giving minutes to on a regular basis, 9-10 of which should see the court most nights.

Make no mistake, Stan has been taking advantage of teams with these deals. They're all steals. The only reason those teams made those trades is that they were in a position of disadvantage to begin with.

As for free agency, Stan has done about the best one could expect given the circumstances. Players just don't willingly flock to the Pistons, they have to be dragged kicking and screaming, only later discovering just how wonderful it is to be a Bad Boy.

While he may have overpaid for Meeks, Butler and Baynes, none of those signings prevent him from moving those players when the time comes. All are fairly reasonable deals, and none are even remotely as damaging as Gordon, Villanueva or Smoove. Had he not signed Augustin to such a reasonable deal (and coached solid play out of him), he might not have had the assets to snag Reggie.

That said, the purpose of this post is not so much about what Stan's already done, but about examining what he's going to do next. Given what he's been able to accomplish with the roster and situation he inherited, he is now in a far, far better position to improve the team moving forward.

Now that he's traded scraps for rotation players, and rotation players for a potential star, it makes sense that his next moves should be even more significant.

Think Sheed.

pistons.0.JPG

Lindsey Hunter, Chucky Atkins and Zeljko Rebraca were enough to swindle the Hawks out of Rasheed Wallace. How'd that happen? Well, Portland didn't want him and Sheed didn't want the Hawks, so Dumars got the missing piece to a championship team.

It's tough to project exactly what player(s) might become available due to similar circumstances in the future, but it seems to happen almost every year. A team that was expecting to contend falls out of the playoff picture and looks to unload a player or two who make max-type dollars so they can rebuild.

Since we don't know what's going to happen this season, the possibilities are endless. But I'll give a couple possible examples of teams that could be in a lousy position around the trade deadline and become willing to unload a player or two to begin the rebuild.

The Dallas Mavericks have three starters who look quite good on paper - Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews. However, their lack of depth and that gaping hole in the middle (sorry, Zaza) will make it very, very difficult to make any serious noise in the ultra-competitive West. (Deron Williams doesn't make them a lock for the playoffs.) The Mavs might also look to improve the center position via trade, but they don't have many assets outside their core of overpaid starters. Should they be sliding out of the playoff picture mid-season, Parsons and/or Matthews could be moved. A healthy and productive Brandon Jennings (on an expiring deal) could be packaged with KCP or Morris to return Matthews or Parsons and immediately upgrade a wing position.

In spite of what he says publicly, I'm not convinced Kevin Love is going to mesh with LeBron. In that unlikely (but entirely plausible) scenario, a Cleveland team that knows LeBron can almost win the NBA championship all by himself might see the logic in swapping Love and his huge contract for a more reasonably priced and lower usage stretch four (Ilyasova? I hardly knew ya!). Toss in a healthy Brandon Jennings (and maybe Jodie Meeks) and the Cavs have added a potent backup PG to boost their playoff rotation. The Pistons add a top 10 superstar and hope he and Dre learn to play better defense.

In spite of Myles Turner looking good early on, the Pacers may be in for a rough year. Depending on how ugly it does or doesn't get by the deadline, Paul George may be looking to move on to greener pastures, and Indiana might be interested in starting from scratch. An expiring Jennings, a young player like KCP and a backup on a team-friendly deal could do the trick.

The Jennings + either KCP/Morris/Ilyasova combo could possibly be used to upgrade any of the starting 2/3/4 spots this year. The core of solid backups Stan has assembled could be used to make the numbers match if we're getting a max guy in return. Guys like Meeks, Tolliver and Baynes all offer decent value for the cost (especially when the cap skyrockets), and all of them should be palatable for another team to accept in return.

I haven't forgotten about Stanley Johnson. Let's say the Pistons do trade for Parsons or George, and Stanley proves himself to be worthy of a starting role in 2-3 years. Awesome. Trade Parsons/George to upgrade at SG/PF. You get the point.

Since DBB is filled with people who have more experience researching such possibilities, I'll leave the floor open in the comments and take pleasure reading your ideas. What other teams might disappoint and look to unload a star or near-star? What talented player might fall out of favor with his team and need a change of scenery?

Whatever happens, Stan Van Gundy has proven he'll be ready to pounce. One piece at a time, he's building a team that should be able to compete at a high level for the next 5+ years.

I should mention that I very much don't think this team is in the same position as the 2003-04 Pistons. That team had a deep playoff run before adding Sheed to its core, and was ready to make that leap. This group still needs to prove it's even a playoff team. But there are some similarities in the way the roster is being constructed, and in how it might take that next step from being competitive to being elite.

Oh, and all this Championship Dreamin' is dependent upon Reggie and Dre becoming All-Stars, of course. And KCP not regressing. And Stanley Johnson being good. And Brandon Jennings being PSE (and pre-injury) Swag. So there are a few small details that need to work out in their favor. Ahem.

But hey, summer is the time to win future 'ships in our imaginations, so let's enjoy it. If this year's Pistons disappoint, it won't be the first time we see gifs of rhino poop.

I'd still put money on dancing zebras, though... especially when I take a step back and see what Trader Stan has already accomplished.

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