My first reaction to the Kevin Garnett trade was that it would make the Celtics relevant but not a legitimate contender. Why not? They lost virtually all of their depth.
The more I thought about it, though, the more I decided that they really are just as dangerous as anyone else, at least in the East. For one, who says they’re done making moves?
As far as I know, they still have their salary cap exceptions to use, and with a host of talented free agents still on the market, they could easily round out roster with legitimate rotation guys. As I mentioned on FanHouse, I could easily see guys like Brevin Knight, Ruben Patterson and P.J. Brown suddenly wanting to come to Boston. Before, those journeymen had no place on a rebuilding roster. But for a team with a three-year window to win a title? They could each play valuable roles off the bench.
So, assuming the Celtics make at least some moves to shore up their depth, are they the new favorites in the East? I can think of at least three teams in the Central Division that disagree, but gambling experts seem to think they are. Let me explain. While scanning several Bulls blogs for my work on FanHouse, I came across this post on Thank You Isiah, which directed me to Ira Winderman’s blog for the Sun-Sentinel:
Spending time in Vegas while consistently handing over my money a few bucks at a time, I couldn’t help but check on how the wise guys viewed the new Celtics.
Monday morning, before Boston’s acquisition of Kevin Garnett came into focus, the Celtics were listed at my nearest sports book at 60-to-1 to win the 2008 NBA title. By Monday evening, the price at most books was hovering in the range of 12-to-1 to 14-to-1.
Yet at many of those same books, the Heat was in the range of 8-to-1 to 10-to-1. In other words, those who put their money behind their actions still view Shaq-Wade as superior to Garnett-Pierce-Allen, albeit in an ever-closing race.
I don’t know the current odds in Vegas, but I have a hunch that the “12-to-1″ odds fell even more once the trade became official. I wasn’t able to find any Vegas odds for NBA futures online, but the offshore casino Sportsbook.com (unfortunately, there’s no direct link — for posterity’s sake, the complete list is at the bottom of this post) gives them 5-1 odds to win the NBA title and 5-2 odds to win the East.
How does Detroit compare? 12-1 and 4-1, respectively. Not surprisingly, though, the site still favors a Western Conference team to win the title — the Mavs (7-2), Suns (7-2) and Spurs (4-1) have the top three odds.
As a fan, I can appreciate the fact that the Pistons are still considered (by a hair) the class of the Central, but I wouldn’t have figured the bookmakers would automatically pencil in the C’s for a Finals appearances. (How much has the trade influenced the bookmaker’s opinion of the Celtics? As of right now, even though Boston’s odds have been updated, they still appear sandwiched among teams ranked 100-1 to win the title and 75-1 to win the East, which both represent the worst odds in the league.)
I’m a little surprised. But I might have an explanation, or at least a hair-brained conspiracy theory …
American casinos don’t post their odds (at least, not that I’m aware of), and most of the online casinos I checked don’t have the odds for their NBA Futures posted yet, so the ones that do might be relying on in-house guesstimates instead of industry-wide standards.
And keep in mind, none of these odds represent what the sportsbook actually thinks will happen, but rather what they want fans to wager on. Sometimes, those two things are one and the same, but not always. Ideally, every bookmaker strives to get action on both sides of the deal so they can make their money right down the middle on the vigorish (you usually have to wager $11 to win $10 — see? I did learn something in college!).
But with Boston’s roster going through such upheaval, it’s possible the bookmaker simply wanted to play it safe by bumping Boston’s odds up unrealistically high to decrease their liability should the new-look Celtics actually do break through the East and win the whole shebang. Once the rest of the industry posts its odds, we might see Boston’s number on this site decline. Or, of course, maybe they remain this high. Time will tell.
But whatever happens, the Eastern Conference as a whole will be awfully tough next year — not yet as talented as the West, but certainly just as competitive from top to bottom. And the division that improved itself the most has to be the Atlantic.
A year ago, people weren’t sure if the “Titanic” Division would feature a single team with a winning record. This year, the Atlantic has picked up three All-Stars from the West in Allen, KG and Zach Randolph. I’m guessing at least three teams from that division (Boston, NJ and Toronto) will make the playoffs, and I wouldn’t put it past the Knicks to exceed everyone’s relatively low (at least outside of NY) expectations by staying in the race for the No. 8 seed longer than most people think.
As promised, there’s the complete list of odds swiped from Sportsbook.com:
Sportsbook.com’s 2007/08 Eastern Conference Champion Odds
Boston Celtics 5-2
Detroit Pistons 4-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 17-4
Chicago Bulls 17-4
Miami Heat 17-4
Orlando Magic 10-1
Toronto Raptors 15-1
Washington Wizards 18-1
New Jersey Nets 22-1
New York Knicks 25-1
Milwaukee Bucks 40-1
Charlotte Bobcats 40-1
Atlanta Hawks 40-1
Indiana Pacers 75-1
Philadelphia 76ers 75-1
Sportsbook.com’s 2007/08 NBA Champion Odds
Dallas Mavericks 7-2
Phoenix Suns 7-2
San Antonio Spurs 4-1
Boston Celtics 5-1
Detroit Pistons 12-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 14-1
Houston Rockets 15-1
Chicago Bulls 14-1
Miami Heat 14-1
Los Angeles Lakers 25-1
Denver Nuggets 25-1
Utah Jazz 25-1
Golden State Warriors 35-1
Toronto Raptors 45-1
Orlando Magic 45-1
Washington Wizards 60-1
Los Angeles Clippers 50-1
New Jersey Nets 60-1
Seattle Sonics 60-1
Portland Blazers 60-1
New Orleans Hornets 60-1
Milwaukee Bucks 100-1
Charlotte BobCats 100-1
Atlanta Hawks 100-1
Minnesota T-Wolves 100-1
New York Knicks 100-1
Sacramento Kings 100-1
Indiana Pacers 100-1
Philadelphia 76ers 100-1
Memphis Grizzlies 100-1
5 to 1 for World Champions? Wow, that is ridiculous. I wish I could just bet against that.
5-1 odds? Wow… that seems pretty ridiculous to me.
They will win the hardware, all of it. They have Rondo (who is very talented and very quick 1) and Perkins (who at least can fill-in at the 5). They need to sign a few players to round out the bench and they will be unstoppable. KG down low, Paul “Got Pierced” slashing and Ray Allen to knock down the open shot….San Antonio is a three man team and they are arguably a dynasty (i don’t think they are btw) and I would take the Celtics trio against theirs or anyone else’s for that matter. I am not saying it will be easy, but I think they will win it all.
Everyone can jump on the KG Boston bandwagon but let’s be honest, Boston hasn’t been good in a LONG time. I still think New Jersey as well as the Raptors will be better than the Celtics. Boston will steadily improve but they will not take the East. Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Miami will still be the teams to beat.
To me the Celtics will be similar to the Wizards with Agent 0, Jamison and Butler.
The East needed another star besides LeBron so now they have it. David Stern must do something to distract everyone from the blantant officiating problems in the association.
I like Hollinger’s take when he cranked the numbers… ~46 wins. Using his efficiency rating system, he projects Boston to only win 46 game!!
I don’t know if anyone remembers ESPN’s preseason predictions last year, but everyone picked Miami or Indiana. Not even 1 person out of 20 “analysts” (and I use that term loosely) picked the Pistons.
This is the same old song and dance. They/we overreact to these deals. I wonder if Bill Simmons is gonna be so giddy 2 seasons from now when KG will be 33, Ray Allen will be 34, and Pierce will be 31. Anyone else remember when Isiah, Laimbeer, and Aguire hit their 30s? How’d that work out?
Brian what does Boston not being good for years have anything to do with now? This team is completely different after making trades for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. That has nothing to do with the past as neither of these All-stars have suited up for the Celtics.
Also, stop comparing this trio to the Wizards or Nets…even the Spurs or Nuggets. These are three franchise players playing on the same team. Butler and Jamison are not franchise guys, same with RJ and Manu and Tony Parker and Camby. Phx is different as they have three franchise guys and hence why they are the favorites to win the title for the last two/three years heading into the preseason.
Lunacy is how I’d categorize those odds. Boston is without question vastly improved. Then again, considering where they are coming from, there’s only one way to go - UP.
I don’t think they are more of a threat to win the East than Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland or even potentially Miami, Washington or Toronto.. but they are certainly in the discussion and I’d say they have a great shot at the 3rd seed considering how putrid their division was and still appears to be going into 2007-2008.
The rub is, as you pointed out Matt, if they continue to make moves and add any other role players like a Patterson, P.J. Brown, etc. That would take them from relevant and a likely mid-to-top seed, to perhaps being on the same level as the top teams (Det, Chi, Cle, etc).
The trio in celtics has nothing but the lakers during shaq, kobe, malone, payton….remember those times???? and the piston suprise the world by defeating them easily, in fact, almost swept them for the title…..Pierce and Allen maybe all stars, but i don’t think they can control or take over a game in a matter of short period of time…Garnett? Maybe, depending on which team his playing…the way i see it, celtics trio is nothing but a jefferson/carter/kidd, yao/tmac, iverson/anthony and i don’t see any big deal. I guess moving from 2nd worst team to having a chance to get to the playoff is.
Rick, to tell me that Boston doesn’t have to change its “losing” atmosphere is crazy. Despite all of it tradition, the Celtics have been meaningless for almost 10 years now. KG is a nice pick up but Allen and PP are not franchise players. PP has been there for years and has not brought a sense of winning there. Even the Knicks can match up with Boston’s starting 5.
Also, to suggest the Spurs are a 3 man team is ridiculous. Duncan, Parker, Bowen, Ginobli, Horry and others make that a team and not a 3 man unit. I’m no Spurs fan but they have a heck of a lot of talent.
This deal is nowhere near the deal that brought Barkley to Phoenix. That made the Suns a championship contender.
Boston is a middle of the pack team at best.
HYPE. Don’t believe the…
“San Antonio is a three man team ”
So is Boston. But neither Rondo nor Perkins are going to match Brent Barry’s output from this last season (he had the highest true shooting percentage in the NBA), and Duncan was the best player in the league last year. Add in Finley’s solid contribution and Bowen’s defense, and you have a team that substantially outclasses Boston.
Hollinger’s readout is probably accurate, although very minor upgrades will make MAJOR differences in that number. Finding an average player to replace arguably the worst regular in the NBA is like replacing Joe Johnson with Dwyane Wade, in terms of impact.
If Boston can leverage Garnett’s goodwill to land Brevin Knight and Chris Webber type, or if they sign someone like Ime Udoka, that will add substantially to the win count.
That said, if Sportsbook has them at 5-2 to win the EC, and 5-1 to win the Enchilada, they are essentially giving them even odds to beat an opponent out of the West.
allen will get hurt AGAIN, pierce stabbed AGAIN and garnett will basically find himself playing for the wolves AGAIN.
don’t worry detroit fans, it’s still the pistons, cavs and bulls in the east.
boston is all hype, theyre the flashy team in the news, but come 3/4 through the schedule, they will be the 7th seed.
I’m not sure what Boston’s record will be this year, but I think it’s good for the Pistons if the East is tougher this year. Maybe they’ll stop believing the hype of their own creation and get back to playing with hunger.
Finally, some news to break the monotony. Here’s my take: Celtics will be much improved this year, but won’t win it all. They’ll need to build the empty bench back up and build the chemistry. If they stay smart and hungry, I could see the new Big 3 winning a title in two or three years. In fact, I hope they do do it. Pierce, Garnett and Allen are all class-acts who deserve a ring to retire with.
You guys are all missing one of the most important factors in Boston’s future success: Doc Rivers.
He’s not the coach to take them to the next level.
They will make some more moves though. Luckily the only good Free Agents left are SFs.
My predictions for the East.
Atlantic champs - Toronto
Central champs - Detroit
S.East champs - Washington
Playoff teams - Cleveland, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Orlando
Did Boston change ownership? Danny Ainge still works for the Celtics? Is that a Doc Rivers I see as head coach? What nubs are available as free agents right now? What’s their bench? Who’s starting at the 1 and the 5?
I’ve read a lot of gibberish the last couple of days.
I applaud oddsmakers everywhere for lining the pockets by taking advantage of the amazing hype and luring pure Boston suckers into forking cash out of their wallets.
I bet Donaghy would love to bet against those odds. Really, 5-1 to win it all?! The only I can possibly see coming out of the east are the Bulls and Pistons, the Bulls would have to really step up though. They’re my Golden State. The Bulls have a great defense especially in the interior. The Pistons really needed Grant Hill. Someone on the bench will have to make it happen. Cleveland won’t repeat, and the Heat are done. Washington just loads up the scoreboard and doesn’t play D. Orlando doesn’t have a championship lineup, or LeBron, DWade, or Kobe that can get to the free throw line. Boston will compete, and they might have a very small chance. I don’t see them getting past Detroit, but they might not have to. The Celtics will be the next version of the Nets. A induvidually great threesome, but together underacheivers. The Celtics, however don’t have a Hall of Fame point guard like Kidd (all due respect to Rondo) to get the ball to eveyone. The team lacks leadership and a clutch player. In my eyes, Antoine Walker did more for the Celtics than Paul Pierce during their days together, even though Pierce has more talent. Garnett does provide the Celtics with an inside presence. (Which they really need. Kendrick Perkins is an above average Nazr Mohammed.) The Celtics will also be helped by Ray Allen. He might provide Boston with the key shot in crunch time. Here’s how I see the Eastern Conference shaking up, as of August 1.
(In order of playoff seeding, not record.)
1.) Detroit
2.) Chicago
3.) Boston
4.) Washington
5.) Cleveland
6.) Toronto
7.) Miami
8.) Orlando
The Bulls pose the biggest threat to dethrone Cleveland if they meet in the playoffs. Their interior defense is swelltering. I will always say if the Pistons had Ben Wallace they would’ve beaten Cleveland. Big Ben will not, or would not have let LeBron do what he did to the Pistons in the paint. Neither would the Bad Boys, which is a better team than any of the Piston teams we’ve seen, but that’s an argument for another day. Overall those odds are whack and the Caverliers will not repeat.
This is nothing like the Nets big three. For one thing, the third member of the “big three” was a below average player this last year (and the 4-5th best player on his team at any given time). Richard Jefferson is one of the most overrated NBA players in recent memory.
Beyond that, the Nets regularly played 2 of the worst three players in the NBA (Jason Collins and Cliff Robinson) and one of the 20 worst (Antoine Wright).
Garnett’s performance this year was on par with LeBron James. Pierce and Allen are both all stars. They will assuredly be able to find at least one free agent to fill a gap. Rajon Rando and Tony Allen will be solid contributors, Leon Powe had a decent rookie season, and they have two reasonably promising rookies in Davis and Pruitt.
kobe to the stones for flip(s) saunders and murray.
with saunders gone, sheed outta the 4-spot as player/coach for the first time since ABA days.
dynasty.
also–tayshaun prince; he’s from compton. so pretty much game over lil one
Rick,
I agree any comparison to the Wizards is stupid. Jamison is a soft, perimeter oriented tweener, and Butler is still too young to be counted on at any clutch time.
However, to say the Spurs are a three-man team is just as dumb. Even if they are an X-man team, they would be a two-man team because they have two superstars in Duncan (best player in the league) and Parker (top 5 point guard). But even then, they have players at their disposal who know their role, provide what they can bring every night (well, every other year) and if they need anyone defended or any sort of scoring, they have it on their bench somewhere.
As far as the rest of the East, the team that got screwed is Cleveland. There won’t be any more of this fall into the nice easy bracket and blow through the first two rounds junk. The Bulls have many players who are getting better, the Pistons addressed problems, the Knicks, Celtics, and Nets (although I’m not sold on that team) all added nice pieces. And the Magic sort of imploded, but they’ll get back to the playoffs and Lewis will win them a game. In order of seeding:
1) Detroit
Orlando
2) Chicago
3) Toronto
4) Miami
5) Boston
6) Cleveland
7) Washington
Other teams in playoff mix: New York, Charlotte, New Jersey
Dregs: Indiana (worst team in league), Milwaukee, Philly, Atlanta
Detroit over Orlando in 5
Chicago over Washington in 5
Toronto over Cleveland in 7
Boston over Miami in 6
Detroit over Boston in 6
Chicago over Toronto in 7
Detroit over Chicago in 6