but

I still think Amir’s numbers are too much of an anomaly to be completely ignored as Kevin Does. I also think we’ve criticized Flip for not giving minutes to players who need to improve, not for not playing the most effective players. Lots of people are calling for Amir to get more playing time, but I don’t think any of them think he’s more efficient than Sheed, Dyess or Maxy. Considering the number of blowouts and the front court’s injury and foul troubles Amir shouldn’t have 6 DNP’s and 6.2 minutes per game (adjusted for all 18).

Most teams have an eight or nine man rotation. When Stuckey returns, our eight will the starts plus Stuckey, Jarvis and Maxiell. Then there’s still Nazr and Hunter/Murray (those two are kind of interchangeable, may not both play in the same game) not to mention Amir and Afflalo.

In a normal competitive game, I just don’t see any NBA team going 10 or 11 deep on a regular basis. Somebody is going to get the shaft. It’s not a horrible problem to have, I suppose, so long as there is eventually a plan to develop the young guys considered critical to the team’s long-term future. It didn’t happen with Darko; it happened last year with Maxiell and hopefully it eventually happens with Amir.

“are you saying we should bench a more effective player? Why?”

yes, that is exactly what i’ve been saying (and unless I’m very mistaken, what Joe D has been saying). because if we only play the most effective players we’re right back to the last three years of riding six players to playoff destruction.

Under your reasoning why play the bench at all? The starters should theoretically be the most effective, that’s why they’re starters. The whole mandate from Joe D was focusing on the fact that regardless of whether Flip thinks the bench is good enough, regardless of mistakes, regardless of losing leads (or games), they NEED to play.

Regular season wins are great, but I have no fear of not making the playoffs and my eye is on another championship. Giving Dyess and Sheed more rest and developing Amir increases our odds. Riding the two oldest players (and biggest injury risks) and treating Amir like the new Darko does not.

Amir isn’t in the D-League anymore, he’s here now because Joe D thinks he can contribute now.

But yes, I could have taken a paragraph to explain that, since we have fewer guards and wings, some of the guards are getting more minutes than front-court players who are outperforming them. I could then also qualify my thesis to say that we are fortunate to have a coach who does not play a 6′10 power foward at the 2.

“Also, Johnson won’t get the time he’s EARNED until he can outplay Sheed, Dyess and Maxy? Might as well trade him now.”

Perhaps we should. In the interim, are you saying we should bench a more effective player? Why? Why not simply give him a year to get his legs, and steadily increase his role until he is ready to start in two years?

Besides, Saunders needs to develope the bench, regardless of how good they’ve done so far. If they were already that great, he wouldn’t need to “develope” them.

“we are lucky to have a coach who is willing to throw minutes at the players who have earned them.”

Johnson’s PER is BETTER than FOUR guys on that list, but he only gets more minutes than ONE.

by your criteria he has earned minutes, but he’s not getting them. you can make up all the caveats and rationalizations you want, but your thesis is still proven wrong by your own data.

First of all, unless you are suggesting that Amir play the 2, the Hamilton and Murray comparisons are meaningless. Amir is presently buried behind Maxiell, McDyess and Wallace, who are all outplaying him. Second, Hamilton is having the worst start of his career, and I’m taking it as a given that Hamilton is going to start.

Amir has a ridiculous rate of blocks per minute. He also has a very high rate of fouls. The foul rate will assuredly go down, but so will the blocks. He has to learn to pick his moments.

Hamilton – (PER 16.9, MPG 34.1)
Johnson – (PER 16.4, MPG 9.4)

and the author then sums it up by saying he’s obviously done a better job, so there, and giving us anecdotes on how it could be worse. Now I haven’t won a math award since middle school, but I don’t think the ratios work out there. Amir’s PER is better than Flip Murray and almost as good as our lead scorer’s yet he only get’s 9.4 minutes per game and seemingly no plays called for him.

LawyerBoy,
I don’t see how Amir’s problems with fouls are any different than Maxy’s were. His were solved by playing time and I’m sure Amir’s will too. Plus, consider what the game is like when he’s been getting on the court. They’ve got a huge lead, almost all the starters are out and nobody on his team is defending that hard. So he ends up being the last line of defense when people drive to the hoop so he fouls them and makes them earn it. If his teammates weren’t playing lazy defense when he played I don’t think he’d get as many fouls as he does.

Actually, evidence suggests that the players play well with MORE minutes, though that evidence is skewed by the fact that players who play more minutes also tend to start, and players play better when they start for a variety of reasons.

Maxiell’s 12.6 rebounds per 48 (not 15.6) are not nearly so irregular as Johnson’s 7 blocks, which (were he to qualify) would make him the best shot-blocker in the league.

As far as watching players goes, I have not see a lot of Memphis, but watching the games can tend to greatly skew our perceptions. Spectacular plays and egregious errors stick out in or head more than sound play. A turnover is a turnover, and Murray has a substantially above average A/TO ratio for an SG (average for a PG). For every dumb turnover he makes, there is an easy steal that he does not give up.

Conversely, Darko does get some nice blocks, and obviously you saw him grab five in one game but his offensive output is lousy. Per 40 minutes, he gives Memphis 12 points and 10 rebounds and he turns the ball over a LOT. Plus, he is criticized for being lazy, which he is.

Flip dribbled off his foot twice within a handful of possessions the other night. There’s no specific box score column for that (turnover is so general for an egregious error like that), just my own general disgust as I watched it unfold. Lindsey has also been running the offense more effectively, but I wouldn’t call Lindsey a worthwhile offensive player and I would imagine he doesn’t command a strong PER.

As for the leveling off point, that doesn’t always happen, as Tom Ziller explained a couple of months ago with all sorts of graphs and math.

Also, I kinda think those 9.5 personal fouls matter. I’m all for Amir being given time to develop, but he’s not there today, because if he were, there wouldn’t be cause for Kevin’s article to champion Flip who’s not playing Amir a ton.

I mean, keep in mind by your per 48 statistics Nazr wraps up 15.57 boards. I’ve never been a fan of per 48 minutes because it essentially eliminates the probability of a statistical asymptote (that’s an old high school math term) that I believe so often exists. In otherwords, by using per 48 stats, you’re assuming the guy has no leveling off point. He’ll be able to forge past any maximum statistical quantity if he plays 48 minutes as long as it calculates out in his per 48, and I just don’t think that’s really too often applicable to the NBA game. Stats level off somewhere as the minutes increase unless the stat is PPG and the player is Kobe.

Darko is not considered a great defender by any stretch, and is a mediocre offensive threat. His attitude and effort are the reasons he has not lived to his potential. Warrick has been better. Much better.

Flip has been much more effective this year, running the offense rather than just hoisitng bad shots and getting rebounds. If he can shoot 42% or better (as he did in 03-04), he becomes a more compelling offensive threat.