by Kevin Sawyer
Since he has joined Detroit, Flip Saunders has garnered criticism for not playing the young guys, or not playing the right guys, or overplaying the right guys. I decided to peek at the numbers, and see how true this really is by comparing minutes per game with play efficiency ratings. Here is how that breaks down.
Hamilton – (PER 16.9, MPG 34.1)
Billups – (PER 23.0, MPG 33.4)
Prince – (PER 18.7, MPG 34.5)
Rasheed – (PER 19.6, MPG 31.6)
McDyess – (PER 17.7, MPG 29.3)
Maxiell – (PER 18.6, MPG 23.1)
Murray – (PER 15.3, MPG 19.4)
Hayes – (PER 14.9, MPG 19.2)
Mohammed – (PER 13.5, MPG 12.1)
Afflalo – (PER 8.8, MPG 12.3)
Johnson – (PER 16.4, MPG 9.4)
Clearly, whatever deficiencies Flip may have had in this area, he has overcome them. I would argue that we are lucky to have a coach who is willing to throw minutes at the players who have earned them. Let’s look at some examples where this has not been the case.
Nets – Sean Williams
Not sure what the Nets are waiting for here. Williams averages a block every ten minutes and grabbed 22 points in his first shot at starting. The man they presently have starting is LITERALLY THE WORST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE. Jason Collins presently sports a negative PER, and is shooting 10% from the free throw line. That is hard to do.
Knicks - Renaldo Balkman
Made Isiah look smart with a great rookie season. Isiah makes himself look like an idiot by not playing him.
Bobcats – Jared Dudley
The Primoz Brezec experience sounds like a Charlotte cover band, not a viable starting situation. Dudley proved the living crap out of that truism on Sunday, so the Bobcats had better recognize. Can we call him J-Dud?
76ers- Louis Williams
Just ask any Sixers fan. Not sure benching Andre Miller is the answer, but the days of pretending Willie Green can play should draw to a close now that there is a new sheriff in town.
L.A. Lakers – Trevor Ariza
(In the vain of the South Park Mormon episode)
Orlando wasn’t using one of the most talented players on their roster (dum-dum-dum-dum-dummmm).
The Lakers decided to take advantage in an attempt to get some scoring help for Kobe (smart-smart-smart-smart-smarrrrrt).
The Lakers have played Ariza 12 minutes in six games (dum-dum-dum-dum-dummmm).
Timberwolves – Craig Smith
The second best player on the Timberwolves plays 18 minutes per game guys like Antoine Walker can lead the team to a 15 win season. Yesterday, the restaurant downstairs from my work offered free Wolves-Lakers tickets with the purchase of two appetizers. That speaks for itself.
Grizzlies - Hakim Warrick
Imagine being told you can’t get off the pine because your 25 win team acquired Darko Milicic. Now imagine you happen to be a very talented player. At least Darko is too much of a candy ass to play more than 1,500 minutes per year. Still, Memphis is keeping a weird amount of talent on the bench for some reason.
Interesting… though I think its worth pointing out that Sean Williams isn’t necessarily that big of an upgrade… in the month of November he put up a stellar 1:20 assist to turnover ratio. Probably a factor in his reduced minutes.
Louis Williams is a stud. That guy can run an offense. I’m not so sure however that “J Dud” is also worthy of being called, a stud (Yep, that rhymes. I’m awesome). He’s been spotty so far, though I suppose the flashes of brilliance are there.
I’m a big fan of Trevor Ariza and intrigued by Sean Williams. I haven’t seen much of Craig Smith and I’ve really heard much more about Balkman than I’ve actually seen, so I’ll reserve comment on those two.
My major point of contention is the hating on Darko. I find it to be completely uneccesary. Yes, he’s been felled by an unfortunate rash of injuries early on, but when he’s been in there this season, he’s pretty much kicked ass. Even when he put nothing in the basket last week against the TWolves, he managed to put up five blocks. It’s the old Ben Wallace addage, if you can’t score yourself, stop them from scoring. And if his five minutes on Monday night before he went down isn’t reflected as an actual game, he’s averaging 2.2 blocks per (2.0 w/that game counting). Also going with that logic, he’s notched 2 double-doubles in 9 games this season versus 6 of them in 80 games all last season. I’d say this guy we’re seeing is Darko v2.0.
This isn’t to take anything away from Hakim Warrick who has credentials in his own right, but when Darko has been healthy this season, he’s gone out and earned his $7 million per. Honestly, I’d be happy to have this Darko back in Pistons blue even at that price tag.
Still, an insightful look to examine the PER v. minutes doled out by Flip. I still think PER has some bugs if Amir and Flip are as high as they are, but intriguing observations nonetheless.
OT: Damnit Cavs. We must now suffer through at least 2 more depressing years of Varejao on the Cavs. Maybe Barkley will be right and they won’t make the playoffs. That’d be refreshing.
I’m a Darko apologist through and through, so I agree with LawyerBoy. Plus, he played 1,900 minutes last year. But Warrick’s a nice player, too, and I wouldn’t mind him getting a chance at more minutes on another team.
Also, regarding PER: yes, it has some bugs, but I’m not surprised Amir is so high — per 48 minutes he’s averaging 13 boards and 6.92 blocks a game. (And, um, 9.5 personal fouls, but whatever …)
Amir is still among the league leaders in block/foul ratio, but he does need to learn to pick his moments.
Darko is not considered a great defender by any stretch, and is a mediocre offensive threat. His attitude and effort are the reasons he has not lived to his potential. Warrick has been better. Much better.
Flip has been much more effective this year, running the offense rather than just hoisitng bad shots and getting rebounds. If he can shoot 42% or better (as he did in 03-04), he becomes a more compelling offensive threat.
Matt: I suppose being a Darko apologist (watch out, we’re multiplying!) makes up for you comparing Joey Harrington to Jarvis Hayes. SUPPOSE. Of all people on this blog I’ve come to expect you to be the least incendiary, the most tempered, least likely to exaggerate. You sir, are the quintissential voice of reason in these parts. But that comparison of Joey and Jarvis is the definition of apples and oranges, my friend. Nothing short of outrageous.
Also, I kinda think those 9.5 personal fouls matter. I’m all for Amir being given time to develop, but he’s not there today, because if he were, there wouldn’t be cause for Kevin’s article to champion Flip who’s not playing Amir a ton.
I mean, keep in mind by your per 48 statistics Nazr wraps up 15.57 boards. I’ve never been a fan of per 48 minutes because it essentially eliminates the probability of a statistical asymptote (that’s an old high school math term) that I believe so often exists. In otherwords, by using per 48 stats, you’re assuming the guy has no leveling off point. He’ll be able to forge past any maximum statistical quantity if he plays 48 minutes as long as it calculates out in his per 48, and I just don’t think that’s really too often applicable to the NBA game. Stats level off somewhere as the minutes increase unless the stat is PPG and the player is Kobe.
Ah yes, the Jarvis/Harrington thing that I never responded to: I just meant that the situations were similar — I agree 100% with your argument about it not being an exact match.
As for the leveling off point, that doesn’t always happen, as Tom Ziller explained a couple of months ago with all sorts of graphs and math.
Kevin, how much have you been watching Darko? I’m not meaning that in a snarky manner, I’m genuinely curious. He’s not a great defender I agree, but to me, he looks as good as Cheikh did versus the Lakers (ie: pretty impressive instinctually, but not putting it all together). His offense is coming along. He’s got some frighteningly good skills on that side of the ball, he’s just still a little lost. If the haze ever fully clears on both ends of the court for him, he is a stud. He’s fighting an uphill battle, but it might come together. I don’t see any particular reason to champion a 6′9″ dude over a solid 7 footer even if Warrick is an athletic freak. Hakim ain’t blocking shots like it’s Syracuse anymore, that’s for sure.
Flip dribbled off his foot twice within a handful of possessions the other night. There’s no specific box score column for that (turnover is so general for an egregious error like that), just my own general disgust as I watched it unfold. Lindsey has also been running the offense more effectively, but I wouldn’t call Lindsey a worthwhile offensive player and I would imagine he doesn’t command a strong PER.
Thank you for the mea culpa Matt, I can now exhale. What we can most assuredly agree on is the fact that we are happy to have Jarvis on our squad this season.
I think per 40 minute averages are more compelling, since they measure per-minute contributions in light of the realistic amount one can expect a player to play in a given game. Beyond 40 minutes, I would agree that an asymptotic relationship occurs, but the evidence does not suggest such a link before.
Actually, evidence suggests that the players play well with MORE minutes, though that evidence is skewed by the fact that players who play more minutes also tend to start, and players play better when they start for a variety of reasons.
Maxiell’s 12.6 rebounds per 48 (not 15.6) are not nearly so irregular as Johnson’s 7 blocks, which (were he to qualify) would make him the best shot-blocker in the league.
As far as watching players goes, I have not see a lot of Memphis, but watching the games can tend to greatly skew our perceptions. Spectacular plays and egregious errors stick out in or head more than sound play. A turnover is a turnover, and Murray has a substantially above average A/TO ratio for an SG (average for a PG). For every dumb turnover he makes, there is an easy steal that he does not give up.
Conversely, Darko does get some nice blocks, and obviously you saw him grab five in one game but his offensive output is lousy. Per 40 minutes, he gives Memphis 12 points and 10 rebounds and he turns the ball over a LOT. Plus, he is criticized for being lazy, which he is.
i just like how the crux of the article is that Saunders has been giving minutes to those who deserve them, using PER as the criteria for who deserves them. we’re then given these two statistics:
Hamilton – (PER 16.9, MPG 34.1)
Johnson – (PER 16.4, MPG 9.4)
and the author then sums it up by saying he’s obviously done a better job, so there, and giving us anecdotes on how it could be worse. Now I haven’t won a math award since middle school, but I don’t think the ratios work out there. Amir’s PER is better than Flip Murray and almost as good as our lead scorer’s yet he only get’s 9.4 minutes per game and seemingly no plays called for him.
LawyerBoy,
I don’t see how Amir’s problems with fouls are any different than Maxy’s were. His were solved by playing time and I’m sure Amir’s will too. Plus, consider what the game is like when he’s been getting on the court. They’ve got a huge lead, almost all the starters are out and nobody on his team is defending that hard. So he ends up being the last line of defense when people drive to the hoop so he fouls them and makes them earn it. If his teammates weren’t playing lazy defense when he played I don’t think he’d get as many fouls as he does.
Kyle,
First of all, unless you are suggesting that Amir play the 2, the Hamilton and Murray comparisons are meaningless. Amir is presently buried behind Maxiell, McDyess and Wallace, who are all outplaying him. Second, Hamilton is having the worst start of his career, and I’m taking it as a given that Hamilton is going to start.
Amir has a ridiculous rate of blocks per minute. He also has a very high rate of fouls. The foul rate will assuredly go down, but so will the blocks. He has to learn to pick his moments.
i’m suggesting that you didn’t qualify or say they were getting the minutes they deserved specific to the position or when the lineup allowed. this was your thesis:
“we are lucky to have a coach who is willing to throw minutes at the players who have earned them.”
Johnson’s PER is BETTER than FOUR guys on that list, but he only gets more minutes than ONE.
by your criteria he has earned minutes, but he’s not getting them. you can make up all the caveats and rationalizations you want, but your thesis is still proven wrong by your own data.
Also, Johnson won’t get the time he’s EARNED until he can outplay Sheed, Dyess and Maxy? Might as well trade him now.
Besides, Saunders needs to develope the bench, regardless of how good they’ve done so far. If they were already that great, he wouldn’t need to “develope” them.
I think minutes earned relative to their position is a given, unless you are being intentionally obtuse. Hamilton is outplaying Murray, and gets more time as a consequence.
But yes, I could have taken a paragraph to explain that, since we have fewer guards and wings, some of the guards are getting more minutes than front-court players who are outperforming them. I could then also qualify my thesis to say that we are fortunate to have a coach who does not play a 6′10 power foward at the 2.
“Also, Johnson won’t get the time he’s EARNED until he can outplay Sheed, Dyess and Maxy? Might as well trade him now.”
Perhaps we should. In the interim, are you saying we should bench a more effective player? Why? Why not simply give him a year to get his legs, and steadily increase his role until he is ready to start in two years?
don’t give me that, we could occasionally slide Cookie Jarvis to the 2 and play Amir at the 3. We could do plenty of things to get Amir playing time, if Flip had any desire to.
“are you saying we should bench a more effective player? Why?”
yes, that is exactly what i’ve been saying (and unless I’m very mistaken, what Joe D has been saying). because if we only play the most effective players we’re right back to the last three years of riding six players to playoff destruction.
Under your reasoning why play the bench at all? The starters should theoretically be the most effective, that’s why they’re starters. The whole mandate from Joe D was focusing on the fact that regardless of whether Flip thinks the bench is good enough, regardless of mistakes, regardless of losing leads (or games), they NEED to play.
Regular season wins are great, but I have no fear of not making the playoffs and my eye is on another championship. Giving Dyess and Sheed more rest and developing Amir increases our odds. Riding the two oldest players (and biggest injury risks) and treating Amir like the new Darko does not.
Amir isn’t in the D-League anymore, he’s here now because Joe D thinks he can contribute now.
But we are playing the bench and resting starters, and Amir is contributing now. It’s a balancing act, and Flip is doing it as well as anyone in the league right now. Our starting front line guys are playing 30 mpg.
I kind of figured Amir is on the same path Maxiell was last year: really inconsistent time (including too many DNP’s) early in the year before ultimately getting semi-regular minutes late in the season. But the trouble is, this bench is too deep for everyone to get the time they’re probably entitled.
Most teams have an eight or nine man rotation. When Stuckey returns, our eight will the starts plus Stuckey, Jarvis and Maxiell. Then there’s still Nazr and Hunter/Murray (those two are kind of interchangeable, may not both play in the same game) not to mention Amir and Afflalo.
In a normal competitive game, I just don’t see any NBA team going 10 or 11 deep on a regular basis. Somebody is going to get the shaft. It’s not a horrible problem to have, I suppose, so long as there is eventually a plan to develop the young guys considered critical to the team’s long-term future. It didn’t happen with Darko; it happened last year with Maxiell and hopefully it eventually happens with Amir.
I do agree that Flip is doing much better than the past two years (he couldn’t do worse) and that Sheed and Dyess’ minutes are about where they should be
but
I still think Amir’s numbers are too much of an anomaly to be completely ignored as Kevin Does. I also think we’ve criticized Flip for not giving minutes to players who need to improve, not for not playing the most effective players. Lots of people are calling for Amir to get more playing time, but I don’t think any of them think he’s more efficient than Sheed, Dyess or Maxy. Considering the number of blowouts and the front court’s injury and foul troubles Amir shouldn’t have 6 DNP’s and 6.2 minutes per game (adjusted for all 18).