By: Kevin Sawyer
At the beginning of this season, I made some bold predictions about how the MVP race would turn out. Now that we are heading into the All-Star break, let’s turn those predictions into reality. KG might have the thing locked up, but here is how I would rank the candidates if I were 200 sportswriters balled into one.
1. LeBron James (Previous rank: 6)
The only reason he won’t win it is that you can’t write a fancy story about how he won it. He didn’t swap teams, or “make his teammates better” (which is impossible), or play a sexy position (PG or C). If he keeps this up, all you can say for him is that he has outplayed everyone else… By a lot. Does that make him valuable? I don’t see how it doesn’t.
2. Chris Paul (Previous Rank: 8 )
I’m tempted to use the supporting cast argument for James, but Paul wins that category in a landslide. Paul has his team near the top of the West. Yeah, that West, the one where 50 wins isn’t going to guarantee you a playoff spot. Look, David West is fine, but he’s no all-star, and people are writing obituaries for Steve Nash’s Suns because they added Shaq to a roster that already includes Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa and Grant Hill. I shutter to think what Paul could do with that group.
3. Kevin Garnett (Previous Rank: 5)
What would it take for Garnett to lose the MVP award? I was thinking dead toddlers in the trunk would do it, but it would have to be weird. Like dead toddlers dressed as monkeys underneath a pile of love letters to Philip Seymour Hoffman. You know, somethin’ spooky. That, or 25 games missed due to whatever it is that he actually injured when he left that Minnesota game.
That said, his defense has really set a tone for his new team, which more than makes up for a slight offensive dropoff. Paul and James, though, are in a different class, if we’re being honest, and the more games Garnett misses, the more articles you’ll see pimping those two.
4. Dwight Howard (Previous Rank: NA)
Now might be a good time to analyze the value of superstars who play every damn game (as Howard has since, like, birth). It’s easy to look at a guy who plays 74 games and say that guy has played a full season, but let’s do some math. Howard has a PER of about 25. Like most superstars, Howard’s back up is, um, lackluster (specifically, it’s Adonal Foyle). Lackluster Foyle has a PER of about 12.
If Howard were to play only 74 games per year. The PER for the starting center position would dip to 23.7 or so. Not a huge deal, but when you are naming MVP candidates with identical cases, such numbers loom large.
5. Tim Duncan (Previous Rank: 7)
It’s boring how good he is. Duncan is like the kid on Dance Dance Revolution on hits like 42,000 perfects in a row. It’s amazing, but eventually you just want him to slip on his own sweat and bang his head on that little guard rail they have on the back. Hell, Duncan’s so sweet, he’s been doing this since DDR was popular.
6. Kobe Bryant (Previous Rank: 1)
Pre-game conversation in the Laker locker room:
Pau Gasol: I just want you to know, I’m not about stats. I just want to win.
Kobe Bryant: No, no, forget all that… Just score 30 points.
Pau Gasol: What?
Kobe Bryant: I make it easy. Trust me.
Pau Gasol: Typical American arrogance. Reminds me of Damon Stoudamire.
Post-game conversation in the Laker locker room
Pau Gasol: Wow, you were right. That WAS easy.
Kobe Bryant: That’s right. I’m Kobe @#%$^ Bryant. Also, I knit you this sweater at halftime.
Pau Gasol: It’s beautiful.
Kobe Bryant: (Disappears in a puff of purple smoke).
7. Chauncey Billups (Previous Rank: NA)
No homerism here. Billups’ contribution to the Pistons is summed up as much by what he does as what he doesn’t do. His ability to dish, get to the lane, and set up the offense without turning the ball over is as special as it is difficult to appreciate. Oh, and he is certainly living up to the Mr. Big Shot moniker this year. That 30 footer vs. Orlando was just sick.
8. Amare Stoudemire (Previous Rank: NA)
Has so many things going against him that he probably won’t even get a vote. He doesn’t play enough minutes. He plays alongside a two-time MVP (and has another MVP joining him); he had “chemistry issues” that supposedly forced a terrible trade for the aforementioned; he is the center for a team that has garnered an unfair reputation for not playing any defense. Nonetheless, there is a big reason why Phoenix kept this guy instead of Shawn Marion. When playing 35 mpg or more, Amare logs 26.2 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. Those numbers get you on this list.
9. Chris Bosh (Previous Rank: NA)
I had sort of written him off after his slow start this season, but Calderon-to-Bosh is fast becoming the new Stockton-to-Malone. If Bosh can keep this up, and if Toronto can go on the nice little tear I think they are going to go on, Bosh will escalate.
10. Yao Ming (Previous Rank: 2)
The Rocket’s recent success has made my pre-season Yao-pimping seem marginally less absurd. Yao hasn’t lived up to anyone’s expectations this year, but is still leading an offensively troubled roster to a playoff spot in the merciless west.
Kevin: That Kobe/Pau exchange is the greatest thing ever. Well done.
Nice.
I don’t agree on the bosh thing though. I try to follow toronto a bit since my main man Anthony Parker plays there and i think bosh’s attitude towards “shooting you way through slumps” instead of opening your goddamn eyes and passing the ball when you’re having an off-night shows immaturity.
Nice.
I don’t agree on the bosh thing though. I try to follow toronto a bit since my main man Anthony Parker plays there and i think bosh’s attitude towards “shooting your way through slumps” instead of opening your goddamn eyes and passing the ball when you’re having an off-night shows immaturity.
Matt, that comment about KG having toddlers in his trunk had me cracking up. There’s no doubt in my mind that Lebron has been playing the best basketball this season. While I can’t stand the Cavs or the nickname “King James”, I’ll be the first to admit that Cleveland is the scariest team to have to play a close game with since that guy can beat any team by himself for short stretches (usually the final 2-3 minutes of a game).
Also, Chris Paul’s season is much more impressive than KG’s to me since he’s a PG and a small one at that. IMO, he’s been more impressive at his position than Steve Nash was during his MVP seasons. Plus, isn’t this just his 2nd year!? That’s crazy!
I don’t think KG’s hold is as strong as before, since the team is winning without him and he’s missed so many games. I think it’s looking to be a long overdue MVP for Kobe, since the lakers are primed for a top 3 finish in the west. I don’t agree with how MVP’s are chosen, since I think Bron is having an insane season, but with the Cav’s record, he probably doesn’t get the nod. Sucks that getting Gasol may have been kobe’s ticket to MVP.
LeBron’s having a Jordanesque (gasp) season. The Cavs’ record probably won’t be that strong, though, and he doesn’t really have the wonderful, magical story that the MVP voters look for. He’s a scary man, especially in fourth quarters. Stop heckling him! (happened in Toronto and in Portland recently)
KG seems to be the story this season, although his case is somewhat damaged by the team’s success without him. It might slip away from him if he misses too many games, and some of the hype has been tempered since they’re not going to get 72 wins.
Paul is my favorite player of your top three, but I doubt the voters give it to him because of his youth. WLM1, it’s his third season. People tended to forget him last season since he was injured and Deron Williams was hitting the big stage, but he’s come back in a big way.
The Lakers are probably going to finish pretty well, but I hope people don’t give it to Kobe because he hasn’t had one and he’s “due”. He’s not playing to the lofty heights he was playing at two years ago, and although some of that has to do with him actually passing to teammates (which is commendable), none of that should obscure the fact that other players are having better years, and he’s been playing with better teammates.
I think Amir Johnson deserves at LEAST 3 votes for MVP, and they’ll come from the following:
Boney
Sauce1977
Matt
Another vote for the Kobe/Pao convo… that was hilarious!
Chauncey is my favorite Piston, but I would have to say that Rasheed has been the MVP of this team so far this year. His defense has been excellent. He has been mentoring the Piston youth. His competetiveness is hyper-contagious… and most of all he’s playing center.
Bron, Kobe, and CP3 are the favorites, KG isnt even in the picture at this point IMO
I agree with Tbranch.
I disagree strongly. Mentoring the youth is nice (is Chauncey ignoring Stuckey?) but Chauncey is every bit the defender Sheed is, and is simply more productive. Not turning the ball over, getting to the line, not missing free throws, not taking bad shots, creating good shots for teammates… Chauncey does all of that almost to perfection.
The Cavs record really isn’t that crappy. Plus, considering they lost 6 games without him playing, I’d say Lebron has the best case for MVP. Take Lebron off the Cavs and they could easily lose every game left on their schedule. The Lakers minus Kobe would be weakened significantly, but that team is still capable of competing and winning games. Same thing to a lesser extent with New Orleans and Chris Paul. IMO, if Lebron continues through the season at the pace he’s playing at now, he will defintely be the MVP. KG might be named the MVP, but Lebron will be the guy with the best season. Let’s hope that KG does indeed get named MVP and the Celtics have to play the Cavs in the playoffs with the “King” feeling snubbed.
I’ve never been able to name an MVP for the Pistons. I’ve tried, but as soon as I do, someone else will start having a good stretch and make me change my mind. One day Chauncey will be the best guy out there, other times it’s Rip, Sheed has his big games, Tay has been our go-to defender and scorer late in games in the post-season. Then there’s McDyess putting up double-double’s like it’s just another day at the office. This team doesn’t have an MVP, that’s the beauty of it. Being able to argue about who a team’s MVP is is a rarity in itself.
Hopefully the snub power doesn’t carry over to the next few rounds, should the Stones meet them.
Their record with LeBron is pretty respectable, and I think they’ve lost all the games without him really badly. But now they’re hoisting up a CBA rotation (Newble, Snow, Dwayne Jones?) since all their real players are injured. I’m guessing they’ll have fewer nights like yesterday against Denver, though. You could barely call that basketball.
Now I’m pissed! Right after I go and say that without Lebron the Cavs would be done, Larry Hughes goes for 40 against Orlando with several other Cavs in double figures.
The NBA, where go f****** figure happens.
Kevin S., I wasn’t slighting what Chauncey has brought to the team this year. I’ve just been incredibly impressed with Sheed’s defense and rebounding.
David Stern for MVP!
QD, I hear what you’re saying.
Sheed can rebound and score (though he can get some more rebounds every now and then) and he defends the hell out of the center position. I don’t remeber a lot of centers partying on his expenss during this season yet i can think of a few PGs who did the same with billups.
On the other hand he has Dyess to help him our in the post which isn’t the case when billups gets blown past by speedy PGs.
Just to add something on the sheed column, how many centers in the NBA shoot 3’s with 35% success?
Hughes having a good game is like a biyearly fluke.
A couple of months ago, I debunked the myth that opposing PGs are lighting up Billups this year. IIRC, they were averaging about 12 and 4 on 40% shooting. Over the last five games, they have averaged 8.4 ppg and 3.0 apg on 32% shooting.
I don’t even think Dwight Howard would get his own coach’s vote from the sound bites I heard on The Basketball Jones this morning! Van Gundy CALLED HIM OUT!
So, is that due to billups’ amazing defensive skills or is it due to:
a) we have a great C/PF combo which helps prevent penetration which makes those players shoot from farther out thus lowering FG%?
b) as a unit we are defending very well, thus lowering the team’s total FG% and thus lowering the PGs assits?
Regarding the last five games, i don’t remember who we played but did they have any big names at PG?
And once again, i love billups and i love the whole team but i think with age, foot speed and athletic ability becomes diminished. It shows more on guards than it does on big men (who tend to get more injury prone playing - knees, back and so forth). most playes make up for it by doing other things such as developing leadership, improving their range and so forth but still they lose something along the way…
“Regarding the last five games, i don’t remember who we played but did they have any big names at PG?”
Raymond Felton, Derek Fisher and Jason Terry are all good. J-Will and Steve Blake less so. I agree the team defense is great, but part of that is because Billups is a great defender.
Do you have any evidence that Billups has lost anything this year? He’s having the best year of his career. John Hollinger has an article about big guards who can shoot, and how they tend to age well.
Occasionally in here over the last couple years, a few people crowed about Billups getting blown by by faster opposing PG’s once in awhile.
Hey, it’s the freaking NBA. That’s going to happen to everyone. These aren’t anonymous scrubs he’s facing night in and night out.
Billups is the best all-around PG in the league right now. There are others who do individual things better, yeah. But they don’t have the package.
By the numbers he’s #2. Factor in everything not directly reflected in the numbers and its not even a contest.
The weird thing about the big guards that Hollinger mentioned is that some of them had their best years late in their career. Cassell had his best year at 34 with Minnesota, and Nash has had some of his best years recently (just turned 34). One thing that they all share is that they’re big, smart, and can shoot, so I’m not worried about Billups falling off anytime soon. He should keep most of his value throughout the life of his contract, at least.
This does bring up a problem for one of my favorite non-Pistons, Chris Paul. He doesn’t fit the profile above, but his buddy Deron Williams does, which makes me believe that Williams will have a longer peak while Paul will experience some dropoff (small guys who rely on jets tend to lose value when they hit their 30s, although I think that Paul’s jumpshot has improved to the point where he may buck the trend).