Flip Saunders regrets his handling of the rotation in Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz. From the Freep:
“We got to a point where Maxey was playing really well, and we were trying to match things,” Saunders said. “But we made a mistake — we should have played him. We got in a situation where they were making such a run, and we thought at that point it was too late.
“First thing I said afterwards was, ‘We should have played Amir, and we didn’t.’ “
Saunders said he never had been in a situation where not playing a role player had caused such a stir.
“Especially when you’re 42-16,” Saunders said. “We have people who are saying, ‘Start Amir.’ But they don’t know that Antonio McDyess has been one of the leading rebounders in minutes played in the NBA over the last month. You can’t always look at superficial things.”
As I see it, the only reason there was any stir was because the absence wasn’t explained for two days — that’s as much the fault of the traveling beat reporters not realizing what information their readers want from them as it was Flip’s fault for not explaining his rationale (or Amir’s illness) after the game.
But as far as “stirs” go, this really wasn’t a big deal — it’s just the kind of ordinary idle speculation that happens all the time when there are three days between games to over-analyze what went wrong in a loss. It just so happens this time fans were talking about Amir’s DNP-CD as opposed to “Rasheed takes too many threes!” or “Maybe Herrmann should play over Jarvis …” or “Chauncey’s not as clutch as he once was” or [insert familiar kneejerk reaction that follows any loss here].
And as for the people saying, “Start Amir,” that’s definitely overplayed. The only “people” I hear pushing that are talk radio hosts/columnists looking to get a response. Don’t confuse what comes out of the mouths of those who are paid to be intentionally controversial as the opinions of educated fans — who, incidentally, aren’t impressed with gaudy regular-season records. Those went out of style two years ago.
Some statistical data about Amir Johhson
1. AJ is getting more rebounds per 36 minutes than any of our players including McDyess. AJ = 11.6 Dyess = 10.6 per 36 minutes. AJ is also getting more, steals, and blocks per 36 minutes than Dyess (see: basketball-reference.com)
2. AJ is getting more steals and blocks per 36 minutes than McDyess.
AJ per 36 minutes 2.1 and 4.0
McDyess per 36 minutes 1.6, and .7
They are both getting the same number of assists per 36 minutes of 1.0
3. AJ is a our best defender in allowing the fewest on court points per 100 minutes played and lowest FGA% of all of our players. (see: pistonsforum.com Amir Johnson Detroit Pistons Tracker thread)
4. AJ has the 3rd highest Roland Rating on the team. He is behind only Billups and Prince. with a plus 5.0. (see: 82games.com)
5. AJ has the third highest on court Net Production on the team behind Billups and Hamiltion a plus 5.1 (see: 82games.com)
6. From the Wages of Win Journal
*The Amir Johnson Story*
In 2005 the Detroit Pistons selected Amir Johnson with the 56^th pick of the draft. The following year the NBA instituted an age limit. This implementation of this rule meant that Johnson was the last player selected by an NBA team out of high school.
In 2005-06 Johnson played only 39 minutes. Last year his minutes more than tripled. And in these 124 minutes he posted a 0.247 WP48. After two years and 163 minutes, the Pistons signed Johnson to an $11 million contract. This means - according to HoopsHype — that Johnson is currently the 6^th highest paid player on the Pistons.
This season he has once again seen his minutes more than triple. And his WP48 in these 409 minutes currently stands at 0.263. *For his career he has now played 572 minutes, produced 3.0 wins, and posted a 0.248 WP8. Such a per-minute mark - both this season and for his career - bests anything posted by any big man on the Pistons roster.
*
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/meet-amir-johnson/
i was totally ready to accept that amir may be hurt and i’d been making a jackass of myself for two days.
instead:
BOOSH!
do not start amir. dyess is the unsung hero of that starting unit and he’s earned that spot for reals. go back to the rotation that was blowing cats out of the water. sheed and amir dominate together.
On virtually every board I have visited fans want to start Amir and bring Dice back off the bench so I think Flip has a definite point about the fans calling for Amir to start.
Leaving Dyess in as a starter works.
Flip just needs to be more aware of mismatches.
When Okur got hot AJ would have been a better choice to defend him out at the arc then Dyess
All this was especially predictable given that maybe the most “familiar kneejerk reaction that follows any loss” is to blame Flip’s coaching. Although as to this particular objection in general, I wouldn’t say “kneejerk” always = “wrong.”
first off, i love amir, but him starting over mcdyess with the way dyess is playing is laughable. he can’t even buy a beer yet.
i don’t want to get a flip-bash rolling. i just want to voice my feelings that it’s a little unsettling that flip’s making bonehead decisions like this in game situations. everybody makes them. (hell, chauncey fouled jr smith on a 3 point shot with 6 seconds left with the pistons up 3.) i just need to believe that flip knows what he’s doing behind the wheel of this cadillac. and when s*** like this happens, i am less certain of his driving abilities.
I’m not understanding all the hype behind Amir not playing one game, I like Amir and I really think he is the future of this Franchise but not seeing him play ONE game doesn’t really bother me. Now if it was consecutive games then I might start to worry a bit but I don’t think it’s nothing to get all butt-hurt about.
As for him starting over Mcdyess: I think that is just ridiculous, if anybody deserves to start it would automatically be Maxiell. Let Amir get his feet under him before we can start talking about giving him major minutes.
Another stat
Hollinger’s Efficiency Rating on ESPN
Looking at Power Forwards
————————————
AJ is 12th with a rating of 19.25
Sheed is 14th with a rating of 17.79
Maxiell is 24th with a rating of 15.80
Dyess is 29th (listed as a center) with a rating 14.66
Flip is a clown. People are upset because in the ho-hum reality of the regular season fans look forward to a decent match up that we haven’t seen in a while, ie the Jazz game. If we had gotten beat in all facets of the game I think fans would find it easier to swallow than watching Paul Miilsap tear us apart for an entire quarter and the head coach not responding with an adjustment (such as matching him with a guy who can cause problems like Amir). It goes beyond just one game and it isn’t about just Amir. We’ve seen this before and I just hope this isn’t another prelude to the playoffs when Flip’s sphincter and rotation do the same thing, tighten up. He’s terrible. Nice analogy earlier….like a blind man driving a cadillac.
For all the people that don’t want to see Amir start, let me point out something that you, I, Flip, or Joe don’t know: We don’t know that the team will be worse with Amir in the starting lineup. To find that out you have to start him and see how he reacts. Amir has hurdled every challenge so far, so why not throw another one at him?
Me wanting to see Amir start isn’t about who’s definitely better between the 2, its about exploring options so that when we do get to the playoffs we can put the best team out on the court. You gotta test the young guys boundaries to know what your getting come playoff time.
The only point I think Flip has about Amir not starting is the foul trouble he gets into. Other than that I see no reason to prevent us from seeing what the kid can do against other starters.
Inconsistent starting rotations kill teams. This team has a very clear identity. The starters are steady, halfcourt guys who wear you down with execution. The bench is an energy unit which provides sparks, takes risks, gambles, and gets out on the break. Amir fits with the second group, not the first.
There’s no reason to gamble with one of the team’s greatest strengths, it’s continuity and the definitive identity it’s built over the last few years.
You surely have proof that inconsistent starting rotations “kills” teams. Bad teams have inconsistent starting rotations… not the other way round. Daly messed with the starting lineup all the time, and I’m sure you don’t think that “killed” our team. Gamble? What are you risking? Its not like McDyess is being released if you start Amir.
Lets say Amir starts, gets 33 minutes, 15 rebounds, 10 points, and 5 blocked shots. That would be awesome, and quite an achievement… too bad we don’t know FOR SURE what those numbers would be, because Flip hasn’t explored that option. None of us know DEFINITELY that Amir wouldn’t play better than McDyess as a starter, given the chance.
Amir can definitely fit in with the starting lineup. He’s gotta play that Ben Wallace role, (which HE’S even said that’s what he’s gotta do) except in a way he can be better because he’s not such a liability on offense. Being able to run like a gazelle is never a liability… if anything that gives the starters one more dimension to leverage.
Of course I’d rather be analyzing real stats than speculating… its too bad we don’t know for sure what they are.
I simply don’t think it’s worth it at this point to risk breaking up the starting lineup, which has been fine, just to see if Amir would make it better. That’s the type of needless tinkering that can kill team chemistry.
I think the handling of Amir has been spectacular to this point, considering he suffered an injury at the worse possible time. He’s in the rotation, playing well, contributing, which is what we all expected. If he beats out McDyess in practice for a starting spot, fine. But I think the idea of throwing him against the starting wall to see if he sticks is too high of a risk for what might be a marginal upgrade.