By Kevin Sawyer
The Western Conference is scintillating right now, but with all the hot deadline action, has the East put itself in a position to catch up? Not at all. Nonetheless, I thought it would be fun to look ahead to the next 2-3 years, and rank potential future of each club.
1. New Jersey
Devin Harris just turned 25, and celebrated by dropping in 21 points in his two games in NJ. What once was an old, fading team suddenly has a bright future. Sean Williams, Diop, Krstic and Boone are all under 26, so the well Nets appear on the front line, and Jefferson and Carter should continue to provide semi-star caliber performance at the wings. They have enough pieces to make another big trade, or simply wait for LeBron and move to Brooklyn.
2. Detroit
The biggest question mark for the Pistons was the age of the front line, but the emergence of Amir and Maxiell seems to solve that problem. Billups, Hamilton and Prince seem like the sort of guys who play well into their mid-thirties, and Stuckey’s emergence should continue to take the heat off the backcourt. Sheed is a bit of a wild card. He could grow into a Sam Perkins type role, or he could retire early and take his family to Japan.
3. Toronto
Calderon to Bosh is a combined 49 years old, and if Bargnani can figure it out, this team is set for a decade. T.J. Ford is an interesting question mark. He has no trade value, at present, but if he can figure out a way to play with a gimpy spine, what do they do with him? If nothing else, it’s impossible to go wrong when you have a great PG, a great big, and a smart GM at the helm.
4. Orlando
Tough to put them any lower when Dwight Howard is on the team. That said, Lewis and Turkoglu are having solid years, and this team isn’t a contender yet. How do they upgrade their mediocre backcourt? Then answer might be to hold their breath, make Jameer Nelson the PG of the future, and find a 2 who can put some points on the board.
5. Miami
Remember when David Robinson went down, and the Spurs were terrible that one year? How’d that all work out, anyway?
6. Chicago
They dodged a bullet when the Cavs decided to mortgage their future, taking Ben Wallace off their hands. Now, they are right back where they started, which should be good for some unspectacular playoff runs over the next few years. At present, they run nine deep with decent players under 30, Noah and Thomas could be their big men of the future, and the door isn’t shut on the possibility of their consolidating their young guys into a star player. Things could be worse.
7. Washington
Tough to see Arenas landing max dollars to play elsewhere, given that he has suffered major injuries in back to back seasons. If healthy, he and Butler should be enough to get them to the playoffs. The guy to watch is Andray Blatche, who is reasonably comparable to Amir Johnson (foul trouble and all). If he unearths some of that talent in the next couple of years, this team could vault a bit.
8. Cleveland
I think he LeBolts, don’t you? Cleveland’s ownership has stacked this team with win-now 30-somethings, but I don’t see how they get past Boston, even if they are able to sneak past Detroit again. And this team, as presently constituted, is slated to become the New York Knicks by 2010. On the flip side, they still have LeBron. The mere hope of his continued presence on the Cavs keeps them out of my hypothetical lottery.
9. Boston
Mostly tacking two years onto the Celtics aging Big Three, and factoring in the possibility that one or more of them moves on. This is a two-year window team. Big Baby and co. are nice pieces, but this team will be lottery fodder at some point in the next three years.
10. Atlanta
I don’t really like the Bibby move at all, future-wise. This team has promising pieces, but all that promise wants delivery-type compensation. And it appears as though the Hawks are prepared to sever ties with arguably their most effective young guy in Josh Childress (they should really be peddling Marvin Williams, who has more trade value and less ability). On paper, this team should be a playoff team next season. In reality, management doesn’t know what it’s doing.
11. Milwaukee
The NBA’s unlikely mecca of multi-culturalism serves as an example of why you don’t throw max money at semi-star players. The Bucks have been too loose with the purse strings in general, which could cost them the ability to resign Bogut, who might actually be worth the money he is commanding. This team looks locked and loaded for an extended bout of 50 loss seasons.
12. Charlotte
I can’t figure out why this isn’t a playoff team in the East. Wallace, Richardson, Okafor and Felton seem like a good core to me, but it hasn’t even been close enough to hope that Sean May’s return will reverse their fortunes. Even though they totally Darkoed on Adam Morrison, I still think the Bobcats built up the right way, storing draft picks, and parlaying their financial flexibility into a strong player in Richardson, and sprinkling in veterans. Guess not.
13. Philadelphia
They are riding Andre Miller to a playoff run for no good reason. How is getting swept by Detroit or Boston going to benefit them? Other than that, this team looks pretty hopeless. Locals are high on a couple of their young guys, notably Thad Young, but remember that this is a franchise that is in LOVE with Willie Green. I don’t see a future here.
14. New York
Oof.
15. Indiana
Like New York, but without the deep pockets that might one day yield a superstar. Indiana also has a potential semi-star problem on their hands with Danny Granger, who looks to have hit his ceiling, but will be looking for a big payday. Even if they could get some real value for Jermaine O’Neal, I don’t see many players on this roster who are going to play a major role for a contender. Plus, they have just enough talent to win 35 games per year, which will keep them out of the top ten in the draft. Doldrums-city.
wait, the Celtics are toast because of aging perimeter stars but the Pistons will be just fine with aging perimeter stars? what gives?
And the bobcats, bucks and hawks are at the bottom of the list? Not sure what the criteria was (current gm’s, past drafts?) but I have to disagree that with Detroit’s current run that they can maintain 2nd best status in the conference in the next 10 years.
Detroit at No. 2 might be a little optimistic (although, Joe Dumars *can* walk on water …)
I’d rather have Atlanta’s core than a lot of the other teams, although for the Hawks to do anything they’ll need to clean house with a new front office and coach. But it looks like Kevin took that type of thing into consideration, which would explain Boston’s low ranking (ie, lack of confidence in Ainge — McHale bail-outs notwithstanding).
“Darko” as a verb? Sigh.
The Bucks, Hawks, and Bobcats certainly have all the pieces in place, but are just terrible. They’d probably benefit from a change in coaching - Rick Carslisle seems like he’d be a good fit for any of them.
Sorry, I’m talking the next 2-3 years, the next decade beginning in 2. Ten years from now, even the youngest players will be aging.
IN three years, Garnett will be 34, Allen 35, and Pierce 33.
Billups will be 34, Hamilton will be 33, and Prince 30. Add in the fact that Billups is the type of guard who plays well into his mid-30s, and that gives Detroit a substantial edge. I don’t think Allen will even be in the league at that point, to be honest. And, yes, Ainge sucks.
If the Hawks are a 35 win team now, what is their ceiling? 43 wins? That’s the problem for them and the Cats. They have assembled their roster of the future, and it doesn’t look like enough.
If anything, you could put Toronto above Detroit.
well, as long as you are OPENLY biased against Ainge
I’m sure Amir and Maxiel are the second and 3rd comings, but I’d bump the Pistons down a couple notches at least
as for the Celtics - we’re clearly going for it now - so we’ll have to see just how long we can squeeze out of the current crop - and one thing to keep in mind for BOTH the C’s and Pistons is the “expiring contracts” effect of our aging stars: Ainge said that he would have traded the original Big 3 when they were breaking down - don’t think for a second he won’t do the same to the current crop. Same goes for Dumars.
Jeff: I agree about the possibility of trading stars. In fact, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Dumars put Rasheed Wallace on the block this summer — a guy with an expiring contract who can actually still ball? Surely that’d draw some interest from around the league.
P.S. Dumars still owes Danny Ainge (this year’s Exec of the Year) one for gifting them Rasheed in the first place.
Jeff: I think Ainge has got some competition for that award this season in the form of Mitch Kupchak. The “Fire Mitch Kupchak” movement never really got off the ground because he was able to repair what appeared to be irreparable damage to his reputation as a GM. I thought the guy was a joke of a GM. Perhaps the joke’s on me now.
I Think the Wizards’ ranking is a bit low. They should definitely be above the heat. A nucleus of Butler, Blatche, Nick Young (has showed great promise on occasion, but still hasn’t put it all together yet), and Gilbert (assuming he can play the rest of his career at 80% of what he was doing before) is better and younger than most teams in the league. Young - 22 Blatche - 21 Butler - 27 Arenas - 25. Young and Blatche should be major contributors by them time arenas and butler are 27 & 29.
I’m not high on Young at all, and he is already 22.
LB, I agree on Kupcake, he’s a solid 2nd though.
I don’t think Chicago deserves a high rating anymore, considering we know how gutsy Paxson is in the offseason. He’ll be much more content to let this young core right itself(assuming this season is an aberration) and win 45-50 games for a few seasons and allow the franchise to profit immensely. They’re very luxury-tax averse, which is why I doubt any superstar caliber player is coming to Chicago anytime soon.
Kevin, come on dude. Knocking a guy’s impact on his team’s future because he’s 22 as a rookie? You must think Al Thornton is useless at 24 and Walter Herrmann should be waived because he was 26 during his rookie season so his future is empty. What sense does that make? Now, in terms of Nick Young’s talent/game. I too, am/was skeptical. However, Nick Young is averaging 6.7 ppg in 14:30 of burn a night. That’s pretty good, even though I hate to admit it.
Interesting mental exercise but in the future players are drafted, free agents are signed, trades are made and none of us know what they will be.
What I will say is that all successful organizations are the direct result of the people at the top. They aren’t smart one day and not smart the next.
Getting in the lottery doesn’t insure a future good team and not being in the lottery doesn’t insure a less than good team.
The Pistons are a collection of players whose results on the court are greater than the sum of their parts. That happens because of Dumars.
As long as Joe D. is running the Pistons I am confident that he will find a way to put together a team that will continue to be at or near the top of league standing each year.
Jeff: I actually think the Pistons’ starting backcourt will age fairly gracefully. Smart PGs who can shoot have historically been productive into their 30s (Stockton, Nash, Cassell), and Rip keeps himself in tiptop shape. They may not be able to sustain current production forever, but their decline will be slow rather than precipitous.
Calderon and Bosh look to be a killer tandem for years to come. I think people underrate Bosh’s offensive production. He’s been nothing short of insane this year, and that is with that horrible start. The team is going to have to grow some balls to go forward, though.
Orlando’s going to have a tough time maneuvering with Lewis’s contract. Signing Nelson for big bucks is looking like a mistake right now, too, and it seems like if the Magic want to look forward, they’re going to have to depend on internal improvement (Dwight’s been improving every season, and I don’t see any reason to believe that he’s peaked) or really incompetent GMs on other teams (there’s always the East).
A lot of Charlotte’s problems have to do with them starting JEFF MCINNIS, who may be the worst player in the league. Having him at PG forced Felton to play shooting guard, and Felton can’t shoot. Playing him that much has probably cost them 5-7 games, no joke. I agree that it’s a reasonably decent core, and it could be better if Sean May didn’t have an annual season ending injury.
I think you underrate the 76ers, too. They have a lot of young talent on the team, and their success isn’t all Andre Miller. Louis Williams is a killer scorer, and Thaddeus Young is proving why he was rated so highly coming out of high school. They also have the caproom to attempt to pick up a big name free agent this season, although it may be hard to convince someone to go there. But I certainly wouldn’t rate them below the Bucks, who look to be one of of the most disinterested teams out there. Check them on defense sometime, it is appalling.
As for Miami… there’s no one that is Duncan-worthy in terms of impact. Rose looks good, but he hasn’t struck me as the transcendental point guard he was hyped up to be coming in, although he certainly will be a good player. Beasley looks like a beast, though. Still, their turnaround probably won’t be that quick, since the only keepers on that team are Wade, Marion (who isn’t guaranteed to stay as far as I know), Haslem, and maybe that Wright kid.
Atlanta has talent, but it’s all in two positions. They’d be making a huge mistake in letting Childress go, since he’s freakishly efficient. I’m not that sold on being tied down to Joe Johnson either. Last year, he had All-Star caliber production, but this year his rep has hidden the fact that he’s been pretty average. Horford is already an excellent defensive piece, and he’ll be really good if he works on his offensive game. The team is actually solid on D, but their two primary offensive options are their least efficient and the most turnover prone.
side question… is the crack staff no longer allowed to comment here? justing asking….
Detroit has a starting 5 on their bench, that is 2 years away. I can see Hamilton being dealt as an expiring deal, as well as Sheed. Both will bring back talent, if dealt to a team that has a disgruntled “superstar” aka Joe Johnson (I’d take that dude in a heartbeat… I only named him because I really want him)
I think Johnson would be better as part of a balanced team rather than being forced into a number one option role, but I don’t see why the Pistons would pay for such an expensive piece. His play the last few years is closer to a solid player than a superstar, but that’s not worth his contract.
Johnson bugs me this year more than last year. He’s had a cruddy year shooting, but his fairly ordinary numbers have been bolstered by his insane minutes per game.
The problem I have with this article is that it seems to rate the “Possible front office manuevers” higher than talent on the table…
Following that logic I could say the Lions are going to lure John Madden out of retirement, trade up to get Jake long and take a mamoth road grater RT in the second round…..
and we all know that isn’t happening.
Plus anyone who puts the talent Atlanta has stockpiled at 10th is just nuts.
Sorry Kev but you might as well be predicting exact scores in Pac 10 college football games… ie this is just pure guessing yo.
It’s a function of existing talent, front office talent, contract status and, in the case of Miami, proximity to South Beach. There is plenty of information about where teams will be in three years. Atlanta is losing one of their best (Childress) and isn’t in any sort of position to add talent. Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Al Horford are the core of a 42 win team. If they were going to develop into something great, we’d be seeing glimpses by now.
LB, Nick Young shoots (poorly) more frequently than Gilbert Arenas. That explains his scoring. At 22, there is room for improvement, but not the type of improvement that takes one from being a substantially below average player to a substantially above average player. You are correct that I’m not expecting much from Thornton. Herrmann outperformed them both last year.
Matt mentioned it earlier but there is a 500 pound gorilla looming for Joe D. this summer in Rasheed’s expiring contract. A decision is gonna have to be made as to keep him (and let his deal end hoping to resign him for signifigantly less than he’s making now) or trade him for some valuable future assets. Maxiell and Amir are looking like solid future starters and McDyess has proved his value this season (and last) with his defense and rebounding. I’m sure what happens this year in the playoffs will be the deciding factor but the 08-09 Pistons could look significantly different than the team we love right now.
PG4L,
We have been stockpiling “talent” for years. Just ask Lon Kruger.
Signed,
Billy Knight
Kevin, lovely sarcasm on Nick Young’s shooting, but marginalizing the guy’s contributions is just foolish. I never thought he’d be good and I don’t want him to be good, but he’s certainly not that bad. Is he good? Debatable,
As for Thornton, that’s just plain ignorance on your part so allow me to enlighten you. Thornton averaged 6.3 ppg in 12 games in November. Since then? 12.9 ppg over the other 43 games he’s played in this season. In February, he averaged 17.4 ppg. Last week against Denver he had 33 points and he came off the bench. Has Herrmann ever scored 33 off the bench? Uh, no.
You may want to change your expectations for Thornton. And he’s a rookie who’s 24 that’s clearly getting better as the season progresses. In light of this, you may want to rethink your Nick Young argument.
Grading out basketball talent based on age and tenure isn’t as easy as doing it with baseball. Thornton improved all 4 seasons at FSU, and is just now getting his feet wet in the NBA. Kevin, I think you’re wrong in your assumptions about Thornton. True, what you see is what you get physically with him BUT he has improved each year on the court leading up to the NBA.
LawyerBoy, it’s only a matter of time before Nick Young goes by way of Jared Jeffries in Washington. Ernie Grunfeld is not the best GM when it comes to the draft, he may have gotten lucky with Andray Blatche but really, who else has he drafted that is making an impact in the what now, 4 years since he’s been with the team? Signing Gilbert Arenas was like the Pistons signing Billups. The team had cap room, and threw money at him. Acquiring Antawn Jamison was easy considering how much they threw at Dallas in order to get him (basically Stack and Devin Harris/Jason Kidd). Caron Butler was a steal but who really knew his true worth? Miami was quick to give up on him as was LA…
Kevin, my even bigger question that I don’t think has been answered is how the hell is New Jersey #1?
Josh Boone is marginal at best… Sean Williams is a bad influence away from being out of the league based on his past… DeSagana Diop is a bust former CLE Lottery pick… The only true youth talent in NJ is Devin Harris. Harris, VC and RJ will lead the team as far as they can go. None of the big men are anything more than 7′ tall and 6 fouls. Nenad can’t even stay on the court!
Here’s an interesting thought: Al Horford may have stopped the Hawks from being a nightmare next season. When he injured Ford that made everyone realize that Calderon was a stud. Before then Jose didn’t see eye to eye with the Raps in that they thought Ford was the pg of the future, so Jose might have walked. And Atlanta probably would have gone after him hard just because they need a pg.
Imagine that stockpile of good shooters with a guy like Calderon to get them open.
Boney,
I’m not a member of the Nick Young fan club, and I probably never will be. I just thought the guy was going to be absolute garbage and instead he’s a DECENT scorer off the bench. Around a presumed nucleus of Butler, Blatche and Gil, Young is a useful piece.
As for Thornton, anyone who watches him (so far that’s only confirmed to be you and me around these parts), knows what the guy has got. Freakishly long (à la Tay though stronger), isn’t afraid to step back and take a 3, plays solid D (though overzealous at times) and can swat your shot into the 4th row. The guy plays with energy comparable to Maxiell (though probably not comparable ups). If Thornton could curb his turnovers, he would probably be a really, really good player in this league.