I failed stats in college. It nearly cost me my college diploma. Nonetheless, I stand by the math here, though I was lazy on the 10:1 vs. 9:1. I considered the possibility of Magic winning, but it made things too complicated to deal with during my lunch break. I need interns!

But 56-30 seems about right, and is PLENTY of reason to love the Magic for the next few weeks.

Turn out the lights the party is over

Cleveland has nothing to stop 4 of the 5 guys on the floor, at any time now that they’ve traded their only true on the ball defender in Hughes. Corpse couldn’t cover Sheed or Dyess in Chicago, Wally World reluctantly plays D, LeBron plays D but do we really need Tay to be the equalizer? Delonte West??? DAMON JONES??? Boston is the team to be worried about, but if Detroit moves the ball like they’re capable of, they’re as fluid as any team on offense in the league.

If BOS has to go through CLE and DET in the playoffs, they will not win the Finals. It may be the homer in me, but I think DET could do it just because “if it ain’t rough, it ain’t right”.

1. Being a 10:1 favorite means if you played the game 11 times you’d win 10 times and lose once. So it’s not a 90% chance, it’s a 91% chance (10/11).

2. Since that’s just nitpicky, let’s assume you said either team is 9:1 against Orlando (which is actually 90%). Let’s do Pistons play Cleveland first.

The math is ProbWin1stRd*ProbWin2ndRd*ProbWin3rdRd.

ProbWin1stRd = 100%
ProbWin2ndRd = ProbBeatCavs = 2/3
ProbWin3rdRd = ProbBeatCeltic*ProbCelticsIn3rdRd + ProbBeatMagic*ProbMagicIn3rd Rd. I think you forgot about the chance the Magic could beat the Celtics, which as you’ve outlined it is nonzero. And also have to note (which you do) that ProbBeatCeltic for this case is only 40%, since we got beaten up by Cle.

So ProbWin3rdRd = 40%*90% + 90%*10% = 45%

So the whole thing is 100%*2/3*45% = 30% — not the 26% you outlined (again, difference being the unlikely scenario we play the Magic where we are actually very likely to win.

Now for Celtics play Cleveland. I’ll skip right to the answer.

It’s 100%*90%*(60%*2/3 + 2/3*1/3) = 56%

The first two parts of this formula are clear (we’re assuming we win round 1, and the second term is our chances of beating o-town.) Last is ProbBeatCeltics*ProbCelticsBeatCavs + ProbBeatCavs*ProbCavsBeatCeltics.

So as you’ve outlined it, if I’m not mistaken, it should be 30% to 56% (not 26% to 62%). And as you conclude, go Magic

P.S. this was only done in fun, not to be insulting — i like the idea here.

C’mon, bro - math sucks. Nothing is more divorced from reality.

The Pistons just gotta ball. And if they lose - well, maybe this is the year that we stop saying, “But they were the better team!” I’m a pretty firm believer in “may the best team win,” as in, in 06 and 07, the Stones were not the best in the East. I’m rooting for them to be the best this year. Period.

I wish we could put all these percentages and who we will face aside and own up to ANY team we face. Even after yesturday’s lost I still think the Pistons are the best team in the East. It was clear we had players who were not into the game and going into the fourth quarter it seemed like we had guys who were not interested. I believe if the Pistons act like they actually want to win a game, then they can beat who ever and when ever in a 7 game series, (no matter who we face in first, second, or third round).

What the Pistons need to do is to get focused come playoff time and get the job DONE. It doesn’t matter if we face Nets, then the Cavs, and then the Celtics, anything short of a Finals appearance is yet again another time we have underachieved, yet again another time we lost to an inferior team in EFC, and yet again another time we have failed. Just get the job done and play basketball like we know you can, (and not like that crap you played last night).