Disclaimer: My head still hurts from last night, so I can’t even begin to fully comprehend all of Kevin’s logic below. That said, he sounds confident and it’s on the internet, so it must be true, right? Something that’s not addressed that some people will likely bring up is home court advantage in the ECF, but speaking just for me, I think that’s completely overrated. Yes, the possibility of playing a Game 7 at home is nice, but not as nice as three games in a row (3, 4 and 5) at home, at least in my book. But that’s a topic for another post.
By Kevin Sawyer
After the Celtics debacle last night, a commenter wondered what we were so afraid of when it came to the Cavaliers. If we are championship material, he argued, shouldn’t we be able to knock off a 47 win team. With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to review why we MUST hope the Cavs get the four seed.
For my explanation, I am operating under some assumptions, which you may or may not agree with, but here they are:
The Pistons and Celtics are about evenly matched.
Each team is a 2 to 1 favorite over the Cavs.
Each team is a 10 to 1 favorite over the Magic.
That seems about right, yes? If the Magic somehow survive the EC, Magic fans can heap crap on us for establishing 100 to 1 odds against the three seed.
At any rate, assuming we are certain to beat a Philadelphia-Washington-NJ type in the first round, that gives us a 66% chance of advancing to the EC Finals if we face Cleveland, and a 90% chance if we face the Magic in the 2nd round. Assuming the Celtics are our EC Finals opponent, that gives us a 33% and 45% shot at the finals, respectively. So there is some incentive right there.
But if the CELTICS play the Cavs, then their odds of making the EC Finals diminish from 90% to 66%. If we have a 50-50 shot against Boston, but a 66% chance against Cleveland, that means that, in one third of possible outcomes, we will be a 2 to 1 favorite to advance to the finals. We then have a 55% chance of beating a composite finals opponent, and a 50% shot at the finals overall. So we have gone from a 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 2 chance.
But wait, there’s more! If two teams are evenly matched, you are going to give the advantage to the team that had an easier second round opponent, particularly when both teams sport aging vets, yah? The Cavs are difficult enough that which ever team plays them is reduced to a 1.5 to 1 dog (that’s 60/40). So if the Pistons DO get by the Cavs, they only have a 40% shot at beating the Celts, reducing their chances of making the finals from 33% to 26%. Conversely, if the Celtics play the Cavs, the Pistons have a 60% shot of beating them, increasing their shot of making the finals from 55% to 62%.
So, if the Cavs overtake Orlando for the three seed, our chances of making the championship fall from 62% to 26%.
Go Magic.
matt, can you give me a very narrow analysis (based in your opinion) whats the percentage of orlando staying in the 3rd seed vs. cleveland playing a catch up to get the 3rd seed, BASED ON THE REMAINING OF THEIR REGULAR SEASON GAMES. Thanks!
I don’t know about the numbers, but I’d definitely rather play Orlando than Cleveland in the second round. Those two teams play each other twice more, so keep an eye on those games if you’re interested in the 3rd and 4th spots.
We certainly appreciate the support.
I was that commentator that Kevin was referring to and as a Celtics fan, I have a different take on this. I can understand why the Pistons don’t want to face the Cavs in the second round, but the Celtics might actually be better off if they can dispatch the tougher opponent in the second round. A convincing victory over LeBron cold really steel this team. Every championship team in the past 20 years had to go through a period where it took their lumps and learned from playoff defeats (as Detroit fans well know in the late 80s and with the 50+ win Carlise teams). The Celtics, with three superstar in their 30s, might not get the luxury of climbing the mountain a season at a time. I’d rather have them face and conquer two very difficult opponents rather than coast to the ECF and not be ready when they get bloodied by a worthy rival.
The Pistons starters have been through the playoff wars, and frankly need the path of least resistance to the Finals. The Cs need to be put through the fire to be forged to championship strength.
A valid point, TripleOT.
Whatever.
I wish we could put all these percentages and who we will face aside and own up to ANY team we face. Even after yesturday’s lost I still think the Pistons are the best team in the East. It was clear we had players who were not into the game and going into the fourth quarter it seemed like we had guys who were not interested. I believe if the Pistons act like they actually want to win a game, then they can beat who ever and when ever in a 7 game series, (no matter who we face in first, second, or third round).
What the Pistons need to do is to get focused come playoff time and get the job DONE. It doesn’t matter if we face Nets, then the Cavs, and then the Celtics, anything short of a Finals appearance is yet again another time we have underachieved, yet again another time we lost to an inferior team in EFC, and yet again another time we have failed. Just get the job done and play basketball like we know you can, (and not like that crap you played last night).
Now I know where I recognized Kevin S from! He was that kid in the front row of junior year stats class. You know - the one hunched over the TI-82, trying to discern exactly where the tangent of pi intersected the cosine of X. Or maybe he was playing Nibbles.
C’mon, bro - math sucks. Nothing is more divorced from reality.
The Pistons just gotta ball. And if they lose - well, maybe this is the year that we stop saying, “But they were the better team!” I’m a pretty firm believer in “may the best team win,” as in, in 06 and 07, the Stones were not the best in the East. I’m rooting for them to be the best this year. Period.
I actually completely agree with this. Go Magic!
Love the concept, but I think there are a few mathematical errors here.
1. Being a 10:1 favorite means if you played the game 11 times you’d win 10 times and lose once. So it’s not a 90% chance, it’s a 91% chance (10/11).
2. Since that’s just nitpicky, let’s assume you said either team is 9:1 against Orlando (which is actually 90%). Let’s do Pistons play Cleveland first.
The math is ProbWin1stRd*ProbWin2ndRd*ProbWin3rdRd.
ProbWin1stRd = 100%
ProbWin2ndRd = ProbBeatCavs = 2/3
ProbWin3rdRd = ProbBeatCeltic*ProbCelticsIn3rdRd + ProbBeatMagic*ProbMagicIn3rd Rd. I think you forgot about the chance the Magic could beat the Celtics, which as you’ve outlined it is nonzero. And also have to note (which you do) that ProbBeatCeltic for this case is only 40%, since we got beaten up by Cle.
So ProbWin3rdRd = 40%*90% + 90%*10% = 45%
So the whole thing is 100%*2/3*45% = 30% — not the 26% you outlined (again, difference being the unlikely scenario we play the Magic where we are actually very likely to win.
Now for Celtics play Cleveland. I’ll skip right to the answer.
It’s 100%*90%*(60%*2/3 + 2/3*1/3) = 56%
The first two parts of this formula are clear (we’re assuming we win round 1, and the second term is our chances of beating o-town.) Last is ProbBeatCeltics*ProbCelticsBeatCavs + ProbBeatCavs*ProbCavsBeatCeltics.
So as you’ve outlined it, if I’m not mistaken, it should be 30% to 56% (not 26% to 62%). And as you conclude, go Magic
P.S. this was only done in fun, not to be insulting — i like the idea here.
who the hell cares about some backwards ass stats… Detroit just needs to play the damn game. They can do it, they’ve done it before… all this speculation and notepad scribbling to “show your math” while coming up with specific equations isn’t going to matter when Rasheed Wallace can’t hit a fadeaway jumper to save his life so he resorts to hoisting up ill advised threes…
Cleveland has nothing to stop 4 of the 5 guys on the floor, at any time now that they’ve traded their only true on the ball defender in Hughes. Corpse couldn’t cover Sheed or Dyess in Chicago, Wally World reluctantly plays D, LeBron plays D but do we really need Tay to be the equalizer? Delonte West??? DAMON JONES??? Boston is the team to be worried about, but if Detroit moves the ball like they’re capable of, they’re as fluid as any team on offense in the league.
If BOS has to go through CLE and DET in the playoffs, they will not win the Finals. It may be the homer in me, but I think DET could do it just because “if it ain’t rough, it ain’t right”.
Pistons go out in second round whether it is Orlando or Cleveland.
Turn out the lights the party is over
I start to let this game affect me, then I look at the standings and I take a deep brath and I relax. We’re going to be fine. Sleep well, eat your vegetables, and remember to set your clocks ahead on Saturday. The Pistons will make us proud.
*breath
“Now I know where I recognized Kevin S from! He was that kid in the front row of junior year stats class.”
I failed stats in college. It nearly cost me my college diploma. Nonetheless, I stand by the math here, though I was lazy on the 10:1 vs. 9:1. I considered the possibility of Magic winning, but it made things too complicated to deal with during my lunch break. I need interns!
But 56-30 seems about right, and is PLENTY of reason to love the Magic for the next few weeks.
rob g - i totally agree. maybe this year we will stop BSing ourselves if we lose again and come to see that winning the championship isn’t going to happen with this crew but maybe getting to see them play well all year long and getting us to wait to see the next game is good enough.
or does this make no sense?!
FUZZY MATH!! I don’t really care about stats that much but that was a fun thought process. What we really need is for somebody to kick Sheed in the ass and tell him to go get some effin’ offensive rebounds. He’ll never be Reggie Miller. (thank god)
what if the Raptors beat the Cavs in the 1st round though? don’t laugh - they’re better than you think…
I think the Raps would have a real shot. But the benefit of playing them (vs. playing the Cavs) in the EC Finals is offset by the increased likelihood of facing the Celtics, as well as the fact that the Celtics will likely finish them off more quickly.