I received an interesting email from DBB reader Fadel:
I’m always hearing people (and even the Pistons themselves) saying how much rest the starters are getting because the bench is playing more. But is this actually true and does this really matter? I made a spreadsheet comparing the minutes the starters played in 2006-2007 and this year (2007-2008).
Last year everyone says fatigue was the reason why the Pistons struggled in the playoffs. However, even though the starters (except McDyess) are averaging fewer minutes per game, they will have logged more minutes at the end of the season. The only real difference shows with Tayshaun Prince, who will have played about 227 fewer minutes than last year.
Take a look at the numbers. I think this is interesting. (Note: I assumed each starter will finish the remainder of the season logging their current average minutes per game).
The reason for the discrepancy is so simple I hesitate to point it out: the starters are missing fewer games this year. Chauncey Billups missed 12 games last year while Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace each missed seven. So far this year, none of the starters have missed more than four. I’d expect the average minutes played to dip slightly between here and the end of the season (if for no other reason than to make up for the last few games where the starters traditionally sit out for most of the game), but perhaps not enough to make up for the difference.
Is Fadel onto something? Is all of this talk about fewer minutes just hype that won’t have any real affect come playoff time? I honestly don’t know. But I have a hunch that reducing the minutes per game is more beneficial than simply reducing the overall minutes, at least to the degree that we’re looking at.
Why? Think of it like this: if you work a 40-hour work week by tallying eight hours a day for five days, you’ll be frazzled come Friday evening but hardly asleep on your feet. But if you spend the first three days wasting time and then close out week with two 20-hour work days, you’ll be a zombie by the weekend. Obviously I’m exaggerating to make a point, but I think there’s something to that.
Also, let’s not assume that all minutes are created equal. The Pistons are undeniably more efficient as a team this year (there are lots of ways to measure this, but I’m going to use 82games.com’s quick and easy “points per 100 possessions” — last year the Pistons averaged 109 on offense and gave up 103 on defense; this year, it’s 112 and 103, respectively), which suggests there’s a diminishing return to playing longer minutes per game. Billups has explained it by saying he feels fresher in late-game situations this year because he’s able to sit for longer periods of time early, which makes sense.
If this is the case, the cumulative number of minutes may not be quite as important as the ability to get rest in the middle of a game … which means perhaps the Pistons ought not follow the conventional “shorten the rotation for the playoffs” school of thought. Maybe it’s the fact Detroit can go 10, 11, 12 deep on any given night that keeps the starters so fresh and the opposition on their heels. It’s something to think about.
Let’s face it, the Pistons are in an unusual situation where guys that can’t even dress would probably crack the eight-man rotation of just about any other team in the league — and it’s not just me saying it. Here’s Byron Scott …
“[Jarvis Hayes] had 29 points, that was a real big surprise. He had a season high at halftime – a guy we didn’t mention a whole lot,” said Byron Scott. “We did talk about their bench as being a very good basketball team and that we had to come out and do a better job when their starters went out because we don’t feel they have much of a let down.
… and here’s Gregg Poppovich:
“To me, their bench is the most impressive in the league,” Popovich said. “Those guys take pride in what they do when they step on the court. They’re very physical, very energetic.”
And that’s just me grabbing quotes from their last two opposing coaches — were I to look for more, I’m sure it wouldn’t be hard to find. Playing the starters for fewer minutes not only reduces the load over the course of an entire season but also provides more opportunities within an individual game for a highly energized and motivated reserve to come in and make a huge impact. (This isn’t news: it’s what was behind the mini fan-uproar when Flip Saunders didn’t play Amir Johnson in Utah.) Jarvis and Maxiell had this impact on Sunday, Amir has done it in the past, and Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have done it on occasion. Heck, providing short bursts of defensive energy in the playoffs is the only thing Lindsey Hunter is expected to contribute this year.
So does the fact that the starting lineup will actually play more minutes this season than last bother me? Not necessarily. Maybe I’ll change my mind if the starters routinely log 40+ minutes a night in the playoffs, but if they can stick with something that resembles the current formula, fatigue shouldn’t be a factor.
Just from personal experience, I’d think MPG matters more than overall minutes. When you’re already exhausted and you push yourself another 10%, that’s draining. Do that over and over for 82 games and you’re gonna be tapped come playoff time, especially if you’re not as young as you used to be.
that´s an interesting way to see things, but fewer minutes a game are more important, than games played, i believe.
btw: we should be glad, that there havn´t been any major injuries this year and hopefully there won´t be any…
go pistons
I expect 8-10 minutes per quarter from the starters in the playoffs. In fact, almost every time I see Detroit throw down against a better team, the bench shrinks. It’s inevitable.
well, i guess if anything, this season we’ll find out if accumulative minutes over the season is what caused their purported fatigue, or the heavy minutes they were playing in the playoffs themselves.
i still worry that with Rip, Tay and Chauncey 40 min. a game would be too much. that’s about what they averaged during last years playoffs. It may be scary, but i think we need to get them down around 35.
In my opinion the important things when it comes to minutes are
1. Games missed due to injury
Players who are injured are just less effective when they return from injury. Some players never get back to their pre-injury effectiveness. For some players it can take up to a year after they return and for some it might be only a game or two (minor injury)
Bottom line on injuries is that it is always best to have fewer injuries and no major injuries even if it increases the minutes played by a player over the year by not having the injuries.
I think minutes played per game is overrated. Unfortunately the NBA has become like pitching in baseball. Starters minutes and innings have been gradually reduced over the years which leads to the best players being in the game for a lower percentage of the time and fans having to suffer through bench players minutes.
As excited as we might be about our bench this year there is reason that these guys are coming off the bench. They are not as good as are starters. Granted from time to time they bring energy and can be very productive, but over the course of the season better basketball is played by the starters.
Wilt played over 48 minutes a game one year and averaged 50 points and 26 rebounds a game that year. On a per 36 minute basis for him that year his 37.4 ppg was the highest of his career. So in the year that he played the most minutes per game he averaged the most points per minute.
His rebounds per minute that year was the 4th highest of his career.
I have never bought this argument that the fewer minutes per game the better a player performs.
We lost the Cavs last year because we went into mental and physical lockout that game when he scored 29 points in a row or whatever it was. Our players stopped responding to his moves.
The other games that we lost were due mostly to the Cavs exceptional 3 point shooting in those games.
When Billups says that he feels more refreshed this year, it is my opinion due to the fact that he feels a lot less stressed out because he knows he has a good backup in Stuckey and because in a a lot of the games this year we blew people out reducing his stress level. Billups was also injured last year which I am sure affected how he felt even after he returned.
KG has averaged 38 minutes a game for his career and basically has been injury free playing in 76 or more games each year (not counting this year because it isn’t complete) except for one year.
I say bring on the minutes and keep away the injuries.
it seems common sense, but is there any sort of metric that would show if the odds of injury goes down playing fewer minutes? or less than 40 specifically?
I just want to point out that our former 13th man (Flip Murray) is now the STARTING PG for the Pacers. I’m sure there are few teams out there that would love to have Fabio as their starting 3/4. Ridiculous depth!
“I say bring on the minutes and keep away the injuries.”
I will light a candle in front of my Arnie Kander shrine for us…
Cutting minutes will mean nothing if the starters aren’t going all out for the 36 or so minutes they are out there.
Win or lose, I just want to see this team rotating promptly on defense and cutting hard away from the ball on offense for 48 minutes. And I want to see the bench players sprint up and down the court every time (even if 99% of the time they have to pull back and set up the half court offense).
At this point, Boston is the better team, but hopefully they don’t have another gear. It’s going to take 48 minutes of energy to beat them.
@Jesse - also Nazr has already logged more minutes as a Bobcat that he did during his entire stint as a Piston. Wow!
Here’s the other thing that makes me lol.
Detroit plays the slowest pace in the league, according to Hollinger’s team statistics. Basically, Detroit’s starters should theoretically feel refreshed, despite logging about 100 games every year for a half-decade.
Re: tonight, Denver, well, they have the fastest pace (faster than Golden State). So, I’m looking forward to that battle of wills, again.
Something I made today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_iWCv_G8qI
A little late…I know but Enjoy!
now that three of our bench castaways are starters (four if you count mcdyess), can we put to rest the whole “we didn’t play the bench because they sucked” storyline from the past two years?
Fadel,
A couple of things that you don’t make mention of which either could or will have an effect on total minutes.
1) I would look at the minutes per player for the two years prior to last year as well to get a better sense of what they average year in and year out.
2) Although taking their averages and extrapolating them out over the remainder of the season makes some amount of sense, here are some reasons why the numbers you have used will likely be higher.
- For a team locked into the 2 seed, we should expect to see the end of the bench get more playing time during the last 10 games or so.
- Rasheed/Rip and technicals. This could lead to single game suspensions in both cases if they both feel like getting to that point this season. While I think that neither one of them will, this could have a drastic effect on total minutes played.
I don’t really think that total minutes per season has as much of an effect as minutes per game, but had last season been a better comparison to this one (ie - days missed due to injury being equivalen), then we’d obviously see the drop in total minutes for the season that is expected from a drop in minutes per game.
Ultimately, I think that total minutes played should only be looked at when taking in to consideration a player’s career. For instance, I am worried that Tayshaun’s career will be shortened due to wear and tear simply because he’s never injured and he’s played in every single game since he was made a starter.
To use your work week comparison, an individual who works 45-50 hours a week for a year may not be burnt out on the job after a year, but an employee who continues to work 45-50 hours per week year after year is likely to become burnt out sooner than someone working 35-40 hours a week year after year. Why do I use an overtime scenario vs. and undertime scenario? Well to be honest, to play in every single game and to play the most minutes of any starter in every single game is really more like working 50 hours/week than 40. And in contrast, working 35-40 hours a week would be the equivalent of your average NBA starter who misses 10-15 games a year due to mild non-career ending injuries.
Kyle - No, we can’t. Charlotte and Indiana are HORRIBLE teams. Their standards for a starting-caliber player are far worse than ours. Also, the type of player who fits the mold as a bench player is usually (as discussed in this post) a high energy guy, and/or a defensive stopper and/or a killer jump shooter. Nazr and Flip Murray aren’t these kinds. Flip Murray is actually better as a starter than he is coming off the bench. He’s not particularly wonderful at either. Long story short, the bench still did suck.
or maybe as starters they’re used and featured as integral parts of the offense instead of just “energy guys” who do the garbage work. they were slashers on a team that had no use for slashers, i think that should be kept in mind.
Not all minutes are created equal: Chauncey was playing for a contract last year and couldn’t afford an injury, Sheed was at war with the referees, Rip was being man-handled on a nightly basis and the bench sucked. Mental fatigue more than too many minutes.