The predictions and rankings below are from an email I received from Kyle Wright, author of the book The NBA from Top to Bottom, which undertakes the daunting task of ranking every single team in NBA history using a mathematical formula that has correctly predicted the champion 56% of the time. The 1970-71 Bucks are ranked No. 1 and the 1992-93 Mavericks are dead last.
(I’m not spoiling too much — the interesting stuff is in the middle, such as his rankings of the most dominant teams never to win a title, the worst teams to ever stumble into a title, and, as our friends in Miami might be interested to learn about, the worst teams in NBA history to ever take the court.)
The book covers every NBA season through 2006-07, but Kyle updated his rankings to include this season below, as well as predict this season’s eventual winner. His predictions for this year aren’t all that encouraging for Pistons fans (his formula has the Pistons losing to the Celtics in the Conference Finals), but it’s still food for thought, especially his updated rankings: he has Boston’s run this year pegged as the seventh-most dominant season all-time, while Detroit’s season ranks 63rd. Take it away, Kyle …
THE NBA FROM TOP TO BOTTOM’S 2007-08 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
East first round: Boston over Atlanta; Detroit over Philadelphia; Orlando over Toronto; Cleveland over Washington
East semifinals: Boston over Cleveland; Detroit over Orlando
East finals: Boston over Detroit
West first round: Los Angeles Lakers over Denver; New Orleans over Dallas; Phoenix over San Antonio; Utah over Houston
West semifinals: Los Angeles Lakers over Utah; New Orleans over Phoenix
West finals: Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans
NBA Finals: Boston over Los Angeles Lakers
THE NBA FROM TOP TO BOTTOM’S ALL-TIME RANKINGS FOR 2007-08 NBA TEAMS
All-time ranking (of 1,183) Team
7 Boston Celtics
44 Los Angeles Lakers
61 Utah Jazz
63 Detroit Pistons
124 New Orleans Hornets
142 Phoenix Suns
143 San Antonio Spurs
158 Orlando Magic
162 Houston Rockets
170 Dallas Mavericks
232 Denver Nuggets
339 Toronto Raptors
365 Golden State Warriors
580 Philadelphia 76ers
657 Cleveland Cavaliers
662 Washington Wizards
671 Portland Trail Blazers
799 Indiana Pacers
815 Sacramento Kings
834 Atlanta Hawks
912 Chicago Bulls
1000 Charlotte Bobcats
1031 New Jersey Nets
1069 Memphis Grizzlies
1092 Minnesota Timberwolves
1095 New York Knickerbockers
1104 Los Angeles Clippers
1109 Milwaukee Bucks
1141 Seattle Supersonics
1151 Miami Heat
If you’re interested in learning more about the book, visit iuniverse.com or sportsfromtoptobottom.com. And thank you to Kyle for the review copy as well as these updated rankings.
I know they own our soul head-to-head, but NO way is Utah’s 2007-2008 campaign better than ours. You don’t lay the gigantic egg they laid against the Spurs in the final game of the season and get associated with the word “dominant”. It almost made the Spurs look dangerous in these playoffs. Unfortunately for our pals from San Antonio, they’ll have to go on the road against the Hornets and subsequently the Lake Show, if they even make it past the Suns in the first round. Good luck getting through that minefield, Pop.
Utah has the same road record (7 games under .500) as the Nuggets. As much of a Nuggets mark as I am, that’s just downright laughable in terms of a “dominant” team. I have no major gripe about the Lakers being 44th to our 63rd, but whoever commissioned this guy’s book that will showcase this year’s Utah squad as better than ours, should be axed immediately.
The concept is totally cute, I willingly admit. However, any formula that has such a CLEARLY inferior season (Utah’s) ranked ahead of a clearly superior one (ours), is deeply flawed. I admire Mr. Wright’s dedication to an unenviable task that I would certainly want no part of, but I am certain that his statistical measure lacks greatly in one key element: common sense.
I’ve been on record as no fan of math. LB makes my point for me (thanks, LB!) I don’t know about y’all, but I measure dominance in whether or not a team wins a lot of championships. This math stuff is all about a false sense of objectivity. As if you can measure, objectively, dominance.
Tell me, is there is a mathematical formula for measuring the dominance of a JMax block or dunk? Didn’t think so…
I think Dallas proved last year how little a dominant season means without the ’ship.
Good luck to Boston, you WILL need it against the Cleveland LeRefs.
I think we can learn quite a bit from the math. All of us NBA fans are amateur statisticians, and I think we’re all guilty of plugging the numbers when they suit us. I myself am guilty, I’m the first to look to the stats whenever I make the case for the strength of my team over another. Besides, throw the math away– and if you try to make a case about your team, you’ll sound like nothing more than a Tommy Point homer.
That said, this list is quite interesting. Will it match hall of fame votes, game attendance numbers or otherwise? No. But it is great that someone took the time to do this. For anyone who hates the MVP voting (myself included) for its lack of objective qualifications, a purely mathematical system like this is the other side of the coin.
Rob G– interestingly enough, there is a mathematical formula for measuring the dominance of a Maxiell dunk. He’s one of the worst dunkers on the Pistons teams when it comes to dunk accuracy… Of the starting 5 and him as our six man, he has the worst dunk percentage (83.5%) by a considerable margin. Imagine that– nearly 1 in 5 dunks, he misses.
Oh and let it be noted, Amir Johnson has never missed a dunk this season.
Whats up with all of the Jazz love of late. Theyre the only team I wouldnt bet against in a series with us, but thats only due to matchup problems. No way the Jazz make it out of the west. Not even close.
I’ve just post my version of the playoffs preview. Please check it out and let me have your comments….
http://mundoalbiceleste.blogspot.com/2008/04/2008-play-offs-real-deal-starts-now.html
This Spurs-Suns game is ridiculous. We get two months of this? I guess this is what hoop heavan looks like.
heaven
Poor Suns.
This is what I think about the maths:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=MiMWJ1xBo8w
Conjecture is always fun, though.
ENOUGH OF THIS WHO IS THE BEST ALL TIME CRAP…. PUT UP THE PLAYOFF POST!
The Lakers are pretty good at the game of basketball.
If this is our Game One Post upon which to comment, so be it.
LET’S DO THIS!!!!!!!
Rasheed on the block: it’s a good thing.