Count the Basket compares and contrasts the results of several advanced player rating systems, (including some I’ve never even heard of) …
I took a look at seven popular player ratings. Two basic linear weights metrics based on boxscore stats - John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and Dave Berri’s Wins Produced (WP). Two metrics built on Dean Oliver’s individual offensive and defensive ratings - Justin Kubatko’s Win Shares (WS), and Davis21wylie’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). And three plus/minus metrics based on team point differential while the player is on the court - Roland Beech’s Net Plus/Minus (Net +/-), Dan Rosenbaum’s Adjusted Plus/Minus (Adj +/-), and Dan Rosenbaum’s Statistical Plus/Minus (Stat +/-). For the purposes of comparison I looked at the per-minute (or per-possession) versions of all these metrics (e.g. WP48 instead of WP, WSAA/48 instead of WSAA, WARPr instead of WARP).
… and found some pretty interesting results, including this:
Another eye-popper is seeing Amir Johnson, the 21-year-old Detroit power forward who’s been riding the pine in the playoffs, ranked first in the league in Adjusted Plus/Minus. This actually isn’t as great an anomaly as might be expected - Johnson rated rather well across the board. His consensus ranking was 15th. He was rated lowest by PER (64th), but he ranked 11th in Win Shares and 20th in Statistical Plus/Minus. Obviously one has to use some caution considering he played under 800 minutes on the season, but the fact that he rated well in several metrics could be a good sign for the future.
Consider him Detroit’s secret weapon. So secret, in fact, the coaching staff hasn’t even figured out how valuable he is. Oh well, there’s always next year.
Muchas gracias to Shoals for both alerting me and spreading the word.
I think its about time we have a block party in Amir’s honor. Why not throw it in Boston?
yeah, amir lekobe, he’ll be so good next year they’ll revoke kobe’s mvp and give it to amir for 08 and 09.
this is perhaps the most annoying thing about the Pistons’ season — it is amazing that this guy doesn’t get 15 minutes every game
Not so much now, but during the regular season I found myself wishing I could just skip a few seasons of basketball and zipping to a point a few years in the future to see how our young guys panned out. It’s exciting to think about, especially now that Stuckey is breaking out.
Stucky
Afflalo
Amir
Maxille
Samb
The future looks bright.
Flip should be fired for the sole reason that he hasn’t found playoff minutes for Amir. Dude rebounds and blocks shots and plays with mad energy. WE NEED IT.
Flip stinks.
I think across the board the youngin’s will get a lot of minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stuckey and Maxiell get over 20 and Afflalo and Amir over 10 a game next year.
Flip’s Fault.
You can also look at the Pistons record when Johnson played in the rotation (10 or more minutes before the 4th quarter) and the Pistons record in those games was off the chart, far better than in those games that he didn’t play in the rotation.
Coincidence? It could be.
But it seems to me that if the stats and the team’s won and loss record are saying the same thing there just might be something to it.
Why hasn’t he played in the playoffs? Same reason that Affalo hasn’t played. Flip likes to play guys in the playoffs who have experience. With regard to Stuckey, he really doesn’t have much choice for a number of reasons. Of course Stuckey has proved that he belongs in playoffs, but so far Johnson and Affalo haven’t been give a chance to prove that they belong or don’t belong in the playoffs.
Unfortunately we may have to wait until next year to find out.