By: Kevin Sawyer
While the David Stern wet dream plays out on ABC, we have bigger fish to fry in Pistonland. Joe Dumars has intimated major changes for next year, which gives us all the chance to play amateur GM. Well, if you wanna be a GM, you have to play by the rules. Sheed for LeBron? Not happening.
Here are some guidelines and thoughts that should guide an antsy comments section for the next couple of months.
1) We won 59 games last year. 59-win teams are hard to improve upon, generally.
2) Unless something bizarre happens, the Eastern Conference will again be mediocre. The Cavs are stuck. The Bulls missed their moment. Atlanta and Philly won’t be ready. The Celtics will be back, certainly, but the Pistons could keep this roster intact and still be competitive.
3) Unfortunately, Chris Wallace and Kevin McHale are out of all-stars to piss away.
4) Teams tend to make bad deals closer to the trade deadline, when business interests and panic trump talent. Look at this past season. Phoenix and Dallas committed seppuku, Memphis gave away Pau Gasol for nothing. If the Pistons are looking for $1.25 on the dollar, waiting until the trade deadline might be the way to go.
Further, it gives Detroit the chance to see where they stand. If, by mid-February, Detroit has clocked 40 wins, Kevin Garnett has clocked a career-ending injury, and 2-3 ring-chasers are on the waiver-wire, doesn’t that change the paradigm?
5) This particular 59 win team is perceived to be greater than the sum of its parts. That makes it hard to get fair value for our players. Billups could never bring back a superstar, and it would be a break-even proposition if he did. Sheed will be difficult to move for the very reasons we want to move him. That leaves Rip and Tay. But both of them have great contracts, great conditioning, and no backups on the roster.
Whatever meta-narrative you want to assign to this team, it comes down to putting the best players on the floor. Addition by subtraction is a myth, unless you are subtracting a bad player, and we traded Darko a while ago.
6) This draft is deep and not at all top-heavy. We can get a lottery pick, but one gets the sense that we would do nearly as well with our existing 29 pick. Is there really a Rip Hamilton worth of difference between a Chris Douglas-Roberts and an Eric Gordon?
7) Right or wrong, we will have a new coach. Saunders was a great offensive coach. Most coaches are great at nothing at all. While our existing roster knows Saunders’ offensive schemes, any new blood will need to see a playbook. Can we expect an incoming player to respect a new coach enough to play ball?
8 ) Call me conspiratorial, but isn’t all a bit coincidental that the biggest heists of the last year went to the Celtics and Lakers, courtesy of small-market teams? I have heard rumors that the Heat are willing to send Dwyane Wade to the Bulls, possibly for the sole privilege of exchanging the second pick for the top pick. LeBron to the New York in 2010 is a foregone conclusion. The NBA has been willing to change rules to send the “right” teams to the finals. Would they lend some under-the-table dollars to the cause? If so, it’s a dangerous trade market for a team like Detroit.
9) Before the draft, teams with lottery picks call the shots. Miami, in particular, seems poised to hold the league hostage with tantalizing trade rumors. For several weeks, the NBA is going to be on hold, waiting for 2-3 teams to decide what to do.
10) To some degree, this applies to the decisions of some of the particularly bad GMs. While Isiah Thomas and Larry Harris are out of the picture, the vultures will be swirling around the Bobcats, Grizzlies and T-Wolves. Jason Kidd for OJ Mayo? Why deal with the Dumars’ and Colangelos of the world when you can steal candy from a baby?
as boston subdues the lakers…might it be that the pistons performance in the conference finals was not as much of a disaster after all? might the celtics be really good? didn’t the pistons challenge them?
take away lebron’s ten game injury which coincided with the cavs ten game losing streak and are they not a damn good team? maybe the east really isn’t so bad.
i agree 59 wins is a damn good season. the celtics are just better right now.
if it aint broke don’t fix it…and definitelt no seppaku.
i hope the celtics finish the job in four. deflating the whole dream finals hype and making the west eat crow. but i won’t be watching. learning to hate the celtics. posey and garnett in particular. kind of like ray allen, though. like his business style.
I think the point that was missed in the article was that this team has a ‘too cool’ attitude. This team minus Sheed is still a playoff team in the East. Changes need to be made. If our GM was from Memphis then I would be worried. Joe will not sell for cheap.
Waiting until the trade deadline is silly for a team like ours built on chemistry and teamwork, its almost a given that we would not make a trade. Have no doubt that this team is top four, but the wiring is faulty and needs to be fixed.
This is, quite possibly, the single most intelligent thing ever written about the Pistons (no offense Matt). Thank for providing fact, logic, and sanity to offseason. I believe I will be quoting and linking this post in numerous places over the next couple months.
Great article, Kevin.
OT, but how about the Celtic-Laker free throw disparity? And Phil Jackson’s quote at the end was hilarious. I’m pretty sure he mispronounced Powe’s name on purpose (”Leon POW… oh, I’m sorry, did I mispronounce it? Powe…”), then said it was ridiculous that he shot more free throws in 14 minutes than the Lakers did all game. Classic.
Good article. I tend to agree — Rasheed is really the only guy I’d like to see traded, but I also strongly suspect that it will be nigh impossible to find any trade that gives us a good value, for all the obvious reasons. Maybe closer to the deadline.
I also believe that this roster, although it has let us down 3-4 years running, is capable of winning it all still. They need a fire, and I think they need a better coach. In fact, maybe all we need are a couple key veteran pick ups — a PJ Brown type player or two.
I do hope the Lakers crush the Celtics though. I’ve invested too much in hating them to see them win. And it’s rather ridiculous that they could end up NBA champions after narrowly defeating the freaking ATLANTA HAWKS in the first round. What a joke.
First, excellent analysis. Nit-picks: I’m not sure we can count on the East being generally that bad. I think the Cavs are better than you say; Orlando, Toronto, and Miami may only be a piece or two away; and even the Bulls, with the right trades, could be good. Moreover, the East as a whole doesn’t have to be that great, there just has to be one top-tier rival. The Heat were arguably better than Detroit in 2006, and the Celtics are arguably better this year.
Speaking of which, if Boston defeats LA, that means in the last five years, the East will have won thee NBA crowns, with three different teams doing it, while the west will have only won two, both times the Spurs. Not to say the West isn’t better, top to bottom, but at the very top level. . . .
Detroit should be patient and not panic for all the reasons you say. I’m not so keen on making a big priority of dumping ‘Sheed. He will be the hardest to replace — we don’t have anything like a real starting center on the squad. But could we please get a backup SF?
By the way, re Lakers-Celtics game 2, did that game remind anyone else of Pistons-Celtics game 5 — big lead by the Celtics in the second half, which they almost, but not quite, blow?
the whole too cool argument against the pistons is silly. they play hard all year long and have achieved incredible consistency without a single dominant player. the heat won it all in 06 and it sure looks like the celtics will this year. only one team gets to be champ does that mean everybody else must commit seppaku in disgrace? sheed is a damn good player but not a superstar. he has a lot of intangibles including the negative of his tantrums. but his tantrums are not the reason the pistons lost to the cavs or celtics so again..no seppaku!
Great article. Seriously. Well thought out, logical, no emotional overreactions . . .
Good, but let’s fine-tune the focus a little. The challenge isn’t to improve a 59-win team. It’s to improve a 10-win team — as in, “how do we gain those two extra playoff wins that lead to the championship round?” Looked at that way, the task becomes a little clearer.
Aaahhh, summer speculation. One of my favorite times of the year. I would humbly like to add my 2 cents.
First, Sheed is gone, there is no way this guy comes back to play for the Stones next year. Joe threw down the axe and there ain’t no burying this one. I don’t think they’ll give him away but .85 cents on the dollar is gonna be hard to pass up.
Two-Rip or Tayshaun are the other 2 most likely to go because of value and the fact that good PG’s are hard to come by and a transition from 2 guard to the point is probably the easier route for Stuckey to have an impact right away.
I think most people are confused with the idea that moves are going to be made and we will automatically be a better team next year. I don’t think that is the case. Moves are going to be made because they have to be. Whether we win 59 next year is yet to be seen but fans have to accept the reality that this run is over and a slight drop-off is going to happen but I expect deals that will bring a smooth and quick transition to perrennial championship contenders again within 2 years.
Joe is going to reposition this team to contend again, so the idea that a trade involving our core guys nets us a ring next year is pretty unlikely but 2010 will look much brighter. Just my opinion.
I would expect to see a move in which we end up with some young players in return, maybe some who haven’t yet lived up to expectations that we could get at a discount, i.e Rip, Billups, Ben. It’s Joe’s M.O.and it’s a good one. That’s why I believe the Melo rumors and I kinda like it.
Well written article Kevin.
I’m hoping for some changes for this Pistons team. We’ve fallen short of making the finals the last 3 years and while some of that is definitely due to their “too cool” attitude, the other factors are the current construction of the team and the fact that the starting 5 isn’t getting any younger. No team was hurt more by the rule changes a couple years back that cracked down on hand checking on the perimeter then the Pistons. This greatly increased the value of players who can beat their defender off the dribble, get to the hole, get easy buckets, get to the free line, draw double teams and create shots for others. None of our core 4 guys has the ability to be that guy every game. Our team oriented approach on offense still serves us well during the regular season, but things become much more difficult against a quality defensive team over a 7 game series when the other team knows all of our sets. There’s a reason Rodney Stuckey is the only “sacred cow” on this team…he’s the only one on this current roster who has the potential to be that guy.
Even though our bench will be improved this upcoming year, we’ll still have our core 4 guys on the floor at the end of games, and that’s the way it’s been the last 3 years when we’ve lost game 6 of the ECF. They’ll all be a year older for 08-09, so unless Stuckey makes a huge leap next year I can’t see us winning it all without some changes to the core of this team. If the value isn’t there to acquire that type of guy then a one step back, two steps forward approach may be the way to go.
Are there any small forward free agents that could be had for the mid-level exception? I’m not sure where that information would be.
I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Sheed stays. His expiring contract would benefit the Pistons next summer, so I don’t think that there is an urgency to trade him. If someone makes a great offer, I’m sure Dumars will consider and possibly pull the trigger, but there isn’t a need to dump ‘Sheed for cheap.
I may be confused about how the business side of the NBA works, but I find myself thinking along the same lines as Birdman. Unless a great offer comes around, keep Sheed till his contract expires.
Jim,
You are absolutely correct about Stuckey. He has the ability to be what the Pistons have needed at the guard position for the last 3 years. He’s aggressive, he takes the ball to the rack and he’s intelligent enough to know when a play is not there he doesn’t force it (unlike #32).
Detroit needs to keep Stuckey because he has the ability to set up the offense from the point, or beat his man off the dribble at the 2. This makes Hamilton expendable because Hamilton cannot set up the offense, and he often does not take his man to the rack and draw fouls. Again, there is a reason why Doc had Posey on Stuckey during the series and not Hamilton.
If guys from other teams can see it, I don’t see why my brethren can’t see it. Rip needs to go.
They may send David’s “right” teams to the Finals, but it’s playing to mostly people in Los Angeles and Boston.
“Game 2 of the NBA Finals delivered a 6.4/10 for ABC at 9 p.m. CBS dropped one spot to second with “Cold Case,” 5.5/9. “Dateline” pulled down a 4.7/8 for NBC, while “Family Guy” and “American Dad” averaged 3.2/5 for FOX. The CW aired reruns of “The Game” and “Girlfriends.”
The Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers game improved to 6.9/12 at 10 p.m. “Dateline” jumped up to a 6.2/10, moving NBC ahead of CBS and “The Unit,” 3.0/5.”
http://www.zap2it.com/tv/ratings/zap-ratings060808,0,2646669.story
Competing with Dateline. Pathetic league.
“Are there any small forward free agents that could be had for the mid-level exception? I’m not sure where that information would be.”
Ron Artest! Seriously, if he had punched a fan in any other stadium, he’d be on our roster right now.
I have a suspicion that Josh Childress will be available, but he’ll be looking for a starting role, probably signing a one year contract in hopes of a bigger payday in 2009.
Someone else brought this up, but once you start moving beyong a Hayes-Herrmann caliber player, you are looking for a starter.
I think we should give Herrmann a whirl. I believe he is a restricted free agent.
What do you guys know about Gerald Wallace? All I know is that he’s athletic and easily concussed. Would the Pistons be interested? A writer on a Bobcats blog would like to get ‘Sheed. It does make some sense, pairing Larry Brown and Wallace. Anyhow, here’s the link:
http://www.bobcatsbaseline.com/blog/?p=63
This post makes good points, but Dumars has already guaranteed changes. I’m having a hard time hitting on what changes he might make, given two observations:
1. The one made in this post - trading now doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense.
2. Dumar is a rational person, who generally makes moves that make sense.
But Dumars guaranteed a change. So which assumption is wrong? Has Dumars lost his head, or is there a trade out there that we haven’t thought of yet? Or is it that I am over reading the Dumars guarantee?
LanceBlanks…
Joe D didn’t guarantee changes, but he said he’s going to actively look at trade options unlike previous years when he wanted to keep the core together. Here is from Keith Langlois blog;
He’s not promising earth-changing deals because, as he said, it takes two to tango and he’s not giving players away. But the message is clear: If Dumars has his way, the Pistons are going to look significantly different by the time they convene for training camp in October.
Maybe Teal again?
Billups for Chris Kaman.
Clippers need a point guard; Pistons have 4’s coming out of their ears and no 5.
Actually, if you think Stuckey can run the point, Billups for Kaman makes some sense — much as I like Chauncey. Do the salaries work out?
Real GM says Billups for Kaman doesn’t work, and here’s why:
“There were BYC players involved in this trade, so this trade is subject to the BYC provisions of the CBA. Due to Detroit and L.A. Clippers being over the cap, the 25% trade rule is invoked. Detroit and L.A. Clippers had to be no more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did not happen here (neither met the condition). This trade does not satisfy the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.”
I’m not 100% sure I understand that; is there some tinkering that could be done?
Toledo Joe: I’m not positive all of that BYC stuff still applies — the frustrating thing about using RealGM and ESPN’s Trade Checker right now is that they’re still using 2007-08 salaries.
Toledo Joe… after July 1st Billups can be traded without worry to the BYC status.
The one player I have been telling friends for months that we need to get is Joe Johnson.
Billups for Kaman works. Hell, maybe even get them to switch draft picks - or even better, give them our pick and Sheed for Brand if Sterling is looking to gut salaries again.
I think the Pistons got lucky with McDyess starting this year. That doesn’t seem like a good option for the future.