Remember that “Stat geeks love Amir Johnson” post from a couple of weeks ago? I’ve been sitting on this for a while, but before Game 6 of the Celtics series I asked Amir if he realized he was near universally regarded as one of the most productive players in the league.
Not surprisingly, he didn’t have a clue what I was talking about but seemed amused at his lofty ranking. If we can assume that a new coaching regime means more playing time for Amir, is it too early to put his name on the 2008-09 Most Improved Player of the Year trophy?
I penciled him in for that last year, and now there’s the very real threat that Stuckey could win that next year. The MVP was built for you, Amir!!!
As I listen to this, Curry’s discussing the youngsters on Stoney and Wojo, mentioning that he favors a faster paced style when they’re in the game. He also concedes that the core will still primarily function within half-court sets.
I’m actually nonplussed. He’s basically echoing everything Joe said last week. Nothing mind-blowing.
GO AMIR! Future Now!
“…at least foul or something”
LMFAO!
If Amir keeps averaging 9 fouls per 48 minutes, he’ll have a hard time staying on the court . . . .
McCosky, I don’t know why you’re posting under the handle “TWL,” but just stop it already!
I mentioned the Amir MIP hope in my comment a few threads back, just after Curry was announced as Coach on Monday. I was partially joking, but assumed a Curry signing would get Amir some much more serious PT this coming season.
Partially joking or not, it very well could be in the stars for Amir.
I absolutely love Amir’s potential, but I’m not a big fan of his production. The only time I can remember being happy with his on-court performance was early on last season against the Lakers in a late-night game in LA. Amir and Samb got some burn, and both of them played pretty well. I can’t remember seeing him do anything other than that all year, even in the few minutes he played against other teams benches. I would love for him to have a breakout year, but right now I’m just hoping for some offensive moves and some confidence.
Garrett…I have to respectfully disagree with you. Amir’s per minute production was very good last year and all the “stat geeks” back it up.
His stats per 36 minutes; 56% fg, 10.4 pts, 11.1 rbs., 1.1 stl, 3.9 blks. That’s pretty impressive for a 21 year old who was only asked to play defense and rebound.
@Garrett:
Also, keep in mind that Flip never really ran plays for Amir. Amir’s primary job on the court was seemingly unscripted– just post/man defense and offensive sweep-ups, like tip-ins, put-backs and offensive boards.
It wasn’t until later in the season when the relationship between Stuckey and Amir really began to develop. It was then that Amir seemed to be more involved in our offensive plays. In fact, there was one Stuckey to Amir alleyoop that I remember late this season, made me think about the promise the future of our team has…
Amir will be included in Curry’s offense– and I’m excited to see just how much…
Also remember that he has absolutely no offensive moves at this point and showed very little of the actual promise that JD and company were so hyped on. I remember Dumars GUSHING about Darko when he was about to draft him and all of the stories about how he would rip it up in practice, etc. Frankly, I see more offensive game from Darko than Amir but Amir does have amazing athletic talent and a good nose for the ball and blocking shots. I WANT him to succeed and play well, but this stat geek stuff is ridiculous. All you STAT geeks ever heard of Chris Gatling? If not, he was the most productive player in the league by the numbers at one point, but he was never really that good or played a ton, so that tells you very little about Amir at this point.
Jim: His per minute numbers were awesome, but he just couldn’t seem to put it together so he could stay on the court. I’d rather his real numbers be decent than his hypothetical numbers. Again, I’m not trying to hate on Amir (like I said before, I love his potential) but I’m hoping for some consistency this season. Hopefully it’ll come with more minutes and then his per minute production can become real production.
Mike Payne: Maybe that’s why he seemed so lost on the court then, if Flip wasn’t running any plays for him. My big complaint mid-way through the season after seeing a bit of Amir was that he didn’t seem to have a “go-to” move. If he’s an athletic freak (which, by all accounts he is), pump fake your guy, blow past him, jump over him, whatever. Amir just wasn’t bringing it like that. Or, like you said, maybe he just didn’t have a chance. He’s obviously not a Tim Duncan back-to-the-basket type guy, and that’s fine, but I think he really needs to define what his offensive skill-set is. Maybe he’ll be the next Tyson Chandler? Some blocks, some boards, and some wicked alley-oops?
I think Afflalo will be much improved as well. Our bench shall be even stronger next year, even if we keep Hayes.
I hear what you are saying Garrett (and I know you aren’t hating on him), but if you are putting up good numbers in some what limited minutes, don’t you deserve to play more?
I’m not sure what Amir’s offensive potential is, since last season was basically his rookie year. Like you said, will he be similar to what Chandler is now or is he capable of having a more developed offensive game? I think we are both in agreement though that as his minutes grow and as he’s eventually given more offensively responsibility (he’s still only 21) we’ll be able to get a better understanding of what Amir is capable of.
@Garrett:
“Maybe he’ll be the next Tyson Chandler? Some blocks, some boards, and some wicked alley-oops?”
Amir actually has range and can shoot the jumper. He proved this in the D-league, although most of his jumpers this season didn’t stick. I think this is a confidence issue, in that these plays may not have been what Flip wanted out of him. But his range is likely right in between Maxiell, who can extend out 15ft, and McDyess, who edges toward the 3 point line. Amir has much, much better offensive potential than Tyson Chandler, and I think what he does this season will surprise many. If we compare Amir to any other player in recent league history, it is likely Jermaine O’Neal (without the attitude).
I don’t think it is out of line to hope for this career path out of Amir (pay attention to the first few years of O’Neal’s career–remind you of anyone?):
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3120/career;_ylt=An4iSESTRNszXppAvw63QTukvLYF
Also, forgot to mention– guess who O’Neal waited on the bench behind in Portland. Not saying it is noteworthy, just a funny coincidence.
I may sound like a broken record hear but, Amir’s offensive potential won’t be reached until he adds some bulk.
Every time I’ve seen him face up and drive (his strength according to his entourage on this site) he gets bumped and can’t absorb the contact and finish. And he won’t have a good back to the basket game if he’s so easily pushed off the blocks.
I’ll always take power with adequate hops over great hops on its own.
I’m more bearish on Amir’s future than most, but I was happy with his development this year. He became a much better rebounder. I look forward to seeing what he can do with 20+ minutes per game.
If Joe’s high on him, that’s good enough for me. But, I still don’t see the comparisons to Jermaine O’Neal and Amare Stoudamire.
QD, I think of Amir like a Dennis Rodman, more of a 3 that can’t shoot a jumper well enough to be allowed to use it on this level, but a defensive ball of energy willing to go 30 extra miles for any rebound, block, or steal.
If only someone could show Amir when is the right time to attempt all such maneuvers . . .
I’ve been thinking about that Jermaine O’Neal comparison for a while now. One thing worth pointing out is that until O’Neal got regular minutes, he too was averaging over 7 fouls per 48 minutes.
When a guy knows he’s going to play 10-12 minutes no matter what, he can afford to be more aggressive. These aren’t cellphone minutes, there’s no such thing as rollover personal fouls. Worrying if a guy finishes with four fouls instead of two is just silly, especially if he’s also chasing down rebounds, getting easy putbacks, blocking shots, etc.
Also, even if Amir isn’t the All-Star some of us think he *might* be, even if his ceiling is Tyson Chandler Lite instead of Amare Stoudemire Lite … doesn’t that still warrant playing time? I’ll take 10 points, 10 boards and a block any night.
Also, M.Payne makes a good point about the Stuckey/Amir dynamic not really forming until late in the season, and even that barely had a chance to come together until Amir got dropped from the rotation (for no other reason than “well, the playoffs are coming, we’re not *supposed* to play 10 guys a night …”). What do you think wins more championships: conventional wisdom or innovation? I hate conventional wisdom.
QD…you are completely right about Amir needing to bulk up in order to reach his potential offensively. I don’t think he has the body type to get the bulk of an O’Neal or Stoudamire, but if he can get wiry/strong like KG it’ll be a huge help to him. This isn’t something that’ll happen overnight, but he should be able to add some strength and muscle over the next couple years.
Matt, do you know if the Pistons have put together a strength/training program for Amir to follow this summer? Or a goal of putting on 10 lbs. of muscle etc.?
Jim: good question. I don’t actually know for sure, but I’d guess that’s something they’ve talked about with him. He’s supposed to play in the summer league team, I believe, so he’ll be in contact with Detroit’s staff off and on all summer.
@Garrett:
Also, keep in mind that Flip never really ran plays for Amir. Amir’s primary job on the court was seemingly unscripted– just post/man defense and offensive sweep-ups, like tip-ins, put-backs and offensive boards.>>
Amir was also used to set a lot of high screens on offense. This was by design
OT: FINALLY the NBA calls an offensive foul on one of Garnett’s constantly illegal screens. It only took them until 21.1 seconds left in the 4th quarter of the 3rd game of the NBA Finals. About damn time. Kudos to Mark Jackson for calling Garnett out on his cheating throughout the course of the whole game. I’m anxiously awaiting Laimbeer’s in-studio appearance on the local ABC affiliate wrap-up show here in LA.
Amir has a lot of offensive moves. I have seen him make them. Flip just wouldn’t let Amir shoot anything except a baby hook in the lane and a layup or dunk on a give and go.
Amir is actually a pretty good 3 point shooter. (No not another Sheed).
He has a very good mid range jump shot.
He has enough ability to become a 20 - 10 guy if the Pistons let him loose. He can average 20 + game and do it shooting over 50%.
However it is his defense and rebounding that will help us win as much as anything.
Amir should get his chance next season, if JMax moves up to start like he should. 20-30 minutes a game should let us get a real taste of what the kid can do. If Sheed stays then that probably changes, but I would like to see the kid get some meaningful minutes.
I think that Amir will get a ton of minutes even if Sheed stays. If the roster doesn’t change I really wouldn’t be surprised to see about 24 minutes each for Sheed, Dyess, Max and Amir.
“Consider him Detroit’s secret weapon. So secret, in fact, the coaching staff hasn’t even figured out how valuable he is. Oh well, there’s always next year. ”
Ain’t no more next year. we have to play amir this year or he’ll split (if his contract alows it)
Amir just finished Year 1 of a three-year deal signed last summer, so there will be no splitting until at least the summer of 2010.
Seriously, a year from now I bet we’ll be looking at Flip’s using Ratliff over Amir in the 4th quarter of Game 6 as a fireable offense by itself.
It is mind-boggling to me that, given our woes on the glass, we didn’t think to use this guy with crazy hops and a superlong wingspan for even a few minutes here and there against Boston.
“If not, he was the most productive player in the league by the numbers at one point, but he was never really that good or played a ton, so that tells you very little about Amir at this point.”
How do you know he wasn’t really that good? When he played he was extremely effective, once averaging 19 ppg in 27 minutes. The whole purpose of utilizing statistics is to look beyond player reputation. In Gatling’s case, injuries were a factor, but that isn’t the fault of stat geeks.
i don’t know who told amir to stop shooting from the outside but he was shockingly solid in the nbdl. maybe he had a lot more open looks there and no one to pull the reins, but i would assume he could get those looks as people play off him to help on dribble drives or from double teams. who told him he could only take 3 foot hook shots? i can’t recall him taking a jump shot all season. seems silly.
@JackDutch:
Toward the end of the season, I saw several jump shots from Amir. Clank, clunk, clank. Check out his NBA hot spots for the 07-08 regular season:
http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/7599/amirjohnsonhotspotspaynit8.jpg
Take this with a chunk of salt, however– I’m certain I saw all 8 of Amir’s shots that were adjacent to the free throw line. His mechanics were healthy, his shots were decent, and I felt from watching that his confidence was shakey, thus so were his shots. 8 more, and I think he’d have made 4+ of these. I really don’t have data to back this up, so I need to disclaim that. But my gut suggested it is a confidence issue. Why?
Those were the first 8 jumpers he’s taken from those spots in his NBA career.
Also noteworthy, something I had forgotten above. Amir was a 66.7% three point shooter his rookie year. He went 2 for 3 in the last two games of the 2005-06 season:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3982/gamelog;_ylt=AogVxgJpLWmOS.Mr7lZHnqekvLYF?year=2005
It was that 8-8 game (2-2 3pt., 4-4 ft.) that got everyone so excited.
He’s going to get thrown into the deep end next year the same way Stuckey was this year.
Garrett: I still don’t, and probably never will understand this “he looks lost” argument for keeping Amir on the bench. Look at the Game Logs for Jan and Feb. Notice that even when he was getting his most minutes (15.2 per game in Jan) he was still shooting 65% from the field and only averaged 0.8 TO’s.
or how about march, when he averaged 20.6 minutes per game, shot 56% and averaged 0.6 turnovers per game.
If your argument against him is the look on his face, then you don’t have much of an argument. especially when there is nothing in the numbers to back them up. you sound like what I imagine Flip told himself to keep Amir on the bench. He’s not a vet, He’s not Sheed, he hasn’t been in every situation a million times before. The fact that he still produces and does things Sheed can’t is irrelevant.
One thing about Amir i have thought a lot about (and maybe this is irrelevant) is whether or not he can play alongside Maxiell. Could Amir become a SF/PF, and play a bit more on the wing?
my father and i were just discussing using max more at the 3. let him take more jump shots, plus that distance gives him the room he needs to get a bit of a running start on rebounds. rumors are that amir has a jump shot, but i’ve yet to see it in a real game. he’s got a sweet hook though, that i’ve seen several times. i’m confused as to why the team hasn’t tried to develope maxiell’s jumper into the offense, when he’s in rhythm he’s almost as deadly as rip.