By Kevin Sawyer
Last year’s edition of the most overrated list resulted in quite a tussle, as legions of fans mounted a furious defense of (snicker) Jason Kidd. I can guarantee you those same fans are now on message boards talking about how the Mavericks won’t even make the playoffs this year.
Actually, the guy who most obviously belonged on the list (Richard Jefferson) was the one who showed me up. Well, him and Monta Ellis (ouch, Kevin). Deron Williams played fine, but Chris Paul proved me right to the degree that Williams isn’t overrated anymore. In fact, the only returning member of the overrated team is Marcus Camby.
With a number of stars fading into the background this year, there are actually far more underrated players than overrated players. Nonetheless, here’s your list. Visit the comments section to get your rage on.
- FIRST TEAM
James Posey – F
This year’s winner of the Robert Horry memorial over-hyped role player award. James Posey has all the characteristics. He’s a solid defender, hits threes, and is kinda funny looking. He has rings. Oh, and he meets the most important qualification. He isn’t very good. Have fun paying this guy until he can draw Social Security, New Orleans.
Josh Smith – F
How do you jump from my underrated list to my overrated list in one year? Here’s how. Smith’s popularity skyrocketed this year while his production remained the same. The Hawks improbable playoff run didn’t help matters any. He has shown glimpses of greatness, but has also shown more glimpses of not having his head on straight. With the Hawks piddling away Josh Childress in the offseason… well, there’s nothing like a 30 win season to cool your jets.
Marcus Camby – C
Welcome back, Marcus. Of course, being traded to the Clippers is a surefire way to ensure that you are not on this list next year. Camby’s not a bad player, but his reputation (as well as his undeserved DPOY award) are based upon inflated rebounding and blocking numbers. When not playing for the league’s fastest team, as well as its only rebounding and shot-blocking presence, expect his number to more accurately reflect his talents.
Brandon Roy – G
There are folks who think that Portland will compete for a championship this year. That’s how overvalued Roy has become. He had a very solid campaign, and will be a borderline all-star for years to come, but a 13-game win streak last season elevated his reputation to a level unmatched by his output. Portland could be good, or even great, but that has more to do with the big guy who missed all of last season than Roy.
Tracy McGrady – G
Lost in the shuffle of the Rockets’ weird win streak and miracle playoff birth was the utter banality of Tracy McGrady’s season. Writers attributed his reduced scoring average to his team play (you know you are overrated when sportswriters cite your negatives as positives) but it had more to do with his missing lots of shots. McGrady hit a putrid 29% from three-point range last year, with high volume.
- SECOND TEAM
Carmelo Anthony – F
Well, he’s certainly better than Darko. That said, after five straight years of good but not great play, it’s time to re-adjust the ceiling. As Denver learned the hard way, Melo simply isn’t the centerpiece of a championship ball-club. Let me put it this way, could you imagine what LeBron would do with that supporting cast? Win rings, that’s what.
Hedo Turkoglu – F
Last season was an absolute fluke from the guy who looks like the extra from every Eastern European mob scene. Actually, the first 55 games or so of the season were a fluke, and the rest of the season (including the playoffs) had Turkoglu returning to his career norms. He’s a decent player, and his long-range output makes him a nice compliment to Dwight Howard’s post play. But anyone expecting Orlando to make the leap had better hope Mickael Pietrus is the truth.
Dasagana Diop – C
To be fair, he might only be overrated in Mark Cuban’s eyes. On the championship contending Mavs, Diop was a nice piece. The Shaqs, Duncans and Garnetts of the world needed someone who could foul six times without giving up a three-point play. For the new look (non-contending) Mavs, he’ll be a liability. The Mavericks needed to new blood on offense, and instead threw the MLE at the guy who was a throw-in for the disastrous Kidd trade last year. What’s weird is that it probably took that just to secure his services. Ah, to be seven feet tall.
Derrick Rose – G
No love for the first pick. I think Chicago biffed this draft, passing on a nearly sure-fire big man when they have a competent backcourt already. In college, Rose averaged just under 15, 5 and 5, and shot 33% from three-point range. Top competition or no, does that scream first overall pick to you? As a combo-guard, he’ll need to either rebound or hit the long ball to be very effective. I’m not optimistic.
Stephen Jackson - GFC
What is his position? I’m not going to call him a center, Nellie Ball or no Nellie Ball. Jackson is overrated for a couple of reasons. First, he plays a lot of minutes on a team that plays at a very fast pace, which amplifies his scoring numbers. Second, there was a time when everyone though he’d be dead or in prison by age 30, so the bar was pretty low. But I about spit up on my keyboard when one sportswriter said he is now arguably the best player on the Warriors. He is 4th (behind Ellis, Bidrins and Maggette) at best.
Yo, you forgot Amir Johnson.
Good list… I have no problems with any of the players being on the list.
I would have agreed with Carmelo being overated last season, but this season people/media have caught on to the idea that drink driving/tatoos/cornrows makes you a bad player.
I dunno. I guess I’ve got a different opinion on what being overrated means. I don’t think anyone’s expecting T-Mac to be the key cog to the Rockets nor that Melo will lead the Nuggets to the Finals. And Stephen Jackson seemed overrated last year after GS’s playoff run and underrated this year. My list of overrateds would include guys like Amare Stoudemire (great for fantasy, but doesn’t play defense), Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Andris Biedrins, Corey Maggette (would you pay Richard Jefferson $50 million?), Mo Williams (long live Danny Ferry), Baron Davis, etc.
I’m definitely with you on Hedo, Rose, Posey, and Smith though.
overrated/underrated lists are overrated. Everybody rates, there’s an overall correct rating. Who’s doing this overrating that Kevin Sawyer needs to point out? Nobody’s pointed out that Beasley may be a better #1 pick than Rose?
There might be others more deserving but the I can’t disagree with anyone of the list being highly overrated (1st team )or mildly highly overrated (2nd team)
ahh yes, your friendly BullsBlogger chimes in to stick up for his boy.
Derrick Rose is a 2nd coming of Jay Williams… keep him away from the motorcycles!
Not only was Rose a worse pick than Beasley, I would argue that he was worse than Kevin Love, and possibly OJ Mayo.
T-Mac finished 7th in MVP voting last year, so quite a few think he’s a vital cog in the Rockets offense. Have you seen some of the projections for the Rockets this year?
Boner,
Derrick Rose is definitely my boy (I’m setting up google alerts for any criticisms), and he’d better have a better rookie season than Williams, let alone a safer hobby.
Kevin,
I appreciate you getting out ahead of the curve on judging the #1 pick the day after his first preseason game. This will look real good when the book comes out, though I think Hollinger has already cornered the market on publishing ‘re-drafts’. Tough to pick apart such pithy analysis, but ratting off his per-game box-score stats doesn’t account for the fact that he improved as the year went on, and that Memphis’ offense wasn’t conducive to assists. And it doesn’t suggest you actually watched him play. I mean, I didn’t either, but I read people who did and they seem to like him. I think it’s called scouting.
And Michael Beasley isn’t a ’sure-fire big man’ if he can’t play defense. He’s not even surely that ‘big’. And the Bulls backcourt wasn’t competent last season.
(maybe that wasn’t too hard)
Maybe I came off arse-ish, but I’m genuinely interested in why you scout Rose to be a 4th overall pick. Or is it just you looked up that he had 5 apg and was underwhelmed?
@kevin - I see that MVP voting as the result of the Rockets winning 20 something games without Yao and the projections likely have more to do with the addition of Crazy Ronny. If you say that you think T-Mac will be the third leading scorer for that team, is anyone really going to think you’re crazy? In Yahoo fantasy drafts, his average selection is 58.6 and is going behind guys like Dunleavy, Ray Allen, and Kevin Durant. No one’s looking for 25 ppg out of T-Mac this year, more like 17-5-5. If they were, then I’d agree that he’s overrated.
And I’m with you and Boney on Rose. They’ve desperately needed an inside scorer since Curry left and they’ve still got $36.5 million to pay their current pg. Rose had better be a can’t miss if they pick him over Beasley, and there’s no indication that he is.
“I appreciate you getting out ahead of the curve on judging the #1 pick the day after his first preseason game. ”
In fairness, I wrote this before that game, so I was going on no information whatsoever.
“And it doesn’t suggest you actually watched him play. I mean, I didn’t either, but I read people who did and they seem to like him. I think it’s called scouting.”
This is precisely the argument that delivered Darko Milicic to the Pistons. Rose is better than Darko, of course, and I saw him play quite a bit (there was even a prominent tourney sometime around last March in which he played a leading role).
Beasley was absolutely dominating in college. What would “watching him play” tell me that the statistics don’t? Every now and then a player comes along who you can tell won’t adapt to the NBA game (see: Morrison, Adam), but I haven’t heard any scout make this claim about Beasley or Kevin Love.
The case for Mayo is less clear cut. It is worth noting that he, too, got much better as the season wore on. Actually, their track record is pretty similar, though Mayo has more of a scoring upside. I also think Joe Alexander will factor into the ROY race.
Rose will be fine, but these are not the sort of discussions you want to be having about a number 1 pick.
“No one’s looking for 25 ppg out of T-Mac this year, more like 17-5-5. If they were, then I’d agree that he’s overrated.”
If they get 17-5-5 out of T-Mac, they will be in trouble.
Calling Rose overrated is jumping the gun, you actually have to see a guy perform in the league and then go by what is popular opinion concerning his play.
Every other player I basically side with you on.
However, B-Roy and Posey? Posey’s value can not be overlooked, not only on the court, but especially off the court. Calling James Posey not very good is pretty ignorant and naive.
Agreed on Steven Jackson. He was getting All-Star hype, mostly because he averaged around 20 points per game on a fast system and the rest of the Warriors stopped sucking. No matter what position he plays, though, he is absolutely useless on the boards.
Also, I’m not sure how Camby got a DPotY before Tim Duncan.
Roy probably didn’t deserve an All-Star berth over Manu or Deron, but I haven’t heard anyone but Blazers fans tout him as much more than an All-Star caliber player.
McGrady is valuable as a passer and as a ballhandler who doesn’t turn the ball over much, but he has shot too much, probably to the detriment of his team. To be fair, he had to bail out the team with a lot of desperation shots, but he also takes quick 3s more than he has any right to.
I’d add Granger and to some extent, Joe Johnson.
Ya, I’m going to take a wild stab in the dark and say you are going to get alot of basketball fans angry.
Brandon Roy is a stud I really dont think hes overated at all.
If they get 17-5-5 out of T-Mac, they will be in trouble.
Relying on T-Mac, Yao, and Crazy Ronny? They’re already in trouble. I just don’t see how when people consider T-Mac as barely a top 60 player (from my fact of him going 58.6 in Yahoo fantasy drafts) he could be overrated.
“Beasley was absolutely dominating in college. What would “watching him play” tell me that the statistics don’t? Every now and then a player comes along who you can tell won’t adapt to the NBA game (see: Morrison, Adam), but I haven’t heard any scout make this claim about Beasley or Kevin Love.”
Nor Derrick Rose, which is what I’m waiting to hear from you. What do you think he’ll struggle with? I’ll give you 3-point shooting. But do you really think having only 5 assists a game in a system that didn’t lend itself to high assist totals means he doesn’t have the court vision or unselfish nature to be a PG in the NBA? Why the label of combo-guard?
and the ’statistics’ you refer to are NCAA statistics. I like me some numbers, but those haven’t been proven to be reliably translated. So I’d say to you that they really don’t tell you everything.
Why is the author so quip. What is his background and pedigree that allows him to say that these players are the most overrated. Hyped and Overrated are too totally different subjects and I dont know if the author seperated the two.
How is a 6′10 who basically has lead the league in blocks from day 1 overrated.
How is Marcus Camby who came back from countless injuries to get back to an All Star level overrated.
Brandon Roy does so much with what seems like no true NBA Elite talent give the KID a break.
Need I continued…
John W. Davis
http://www.pistonscast.com
Brandon Roy and Josh Smith are not really overrated. They just are better than average players. With the exception of roy’s undeserved allstar nod, i really haven’t heard too much glory given to either of them. Also Kevin your just being kind of a dick. But be a dick all you want about melo and tmac… tayshaun for DPOY
“Why is the author so quip. What is his background and pedigree that allows him to say that these players are the most overrated.”
His background: he writes outrageous, sometimes funny posts on this blog. People get mad at him and disagree in the comments. A lot of people go to the site to see how he stirred up trouble again. Matt Watson sits back and laughs like a villain and rakes in all that phat advertising money. And the circle of life is complete.
Matt Watson’s evil villain laughter is overrated.
Michael Curry is overrated.
Phil Saunders wins.
Calling Brandon Roy overrated shows serious gaps in your NBA knowledge.
wow roy? have u watched any blazer games???? id say no u are a moron
It’s called blogging. You’re supposed to be inflammatory. Also, blazers fans have been chanting MVP whenever Roy takes the floor, a la Lakers fans last year with Kobe. That’s annoying, but Roy is such a natural, calm basketball player. He’ll never be the MVP, but he is a real champ. He might get Finals MVP someday… I don’t disagree with any of your other picks though.
“Why is the author so quip.”
I have no idea what this means.
“Brandon Roy does so much with what seems like no true NBA Elite talent give the KID a break.”
He’s 24, and a millionaire besides. He has had enough breaks. I don’t think he’s a bad person or a bad player. Just a bit, you know, overrated.
“What do you think he’ll struggle with?… Why the label of combo-guard?”
Because, against teams that will force him to play in the half-court, he’ll struggle to run the offense. He’s turnover prone, and doesn’t have the outside shot to open up the lanes.
You could say the same about Rodney Stuckey, which is the point. Stuckey was a steal in the middle of the first round, but would not have justified a first overall selection.
As for your argument that it was somehow more difficult to get assists in Memphis’ system, I don’t see the data to back that up. I’m just eyeballing here, but they had about as many APG as other top teams.
All you people that are here to throw out petty insults: Relax, take a chill pill.
Its an opinion piece. Its not lifted from the dictionary. No credentials required. If you don’t agree with the list then make your own, stick it on the fridge and nod vigorously at your wisdom.
I’m sure this will boost the traffic for a few days.
Aside from saying a player who hasn’t even started a single regular season game yet is “overrated”, the list is harmless and basketball fans everywhere love to talk about over/underrated-ness. Why, I could just go ahead and say that the Detroit starting 5 is overrated without any factual evidence
@John Blogging is not supposed to be inflammatory. Thats why people dont take bloggers seriously because a fair amount are inflammatory just to be inflammatory.
@Kevin Sawyer quip /kwɪp/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[kwip] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation noun, verb, quipped, quip·ping.
–noun 1. a sharp, sarcastic remark; a cutting jest.
—Synonyms 1. joke, witticism. 2. gibe, sally, jape.
I hope you were being quip by saying you didn’t know what quip meant.
Mr. Davis: note that it (quip) is a noun.
Did you perhaps mean glib?
your friendly Bulls Blogger,
For all the hot air that you and your following spew about Larry Hughes you sure seem adamant that your #1 overall pick isn’t a second coming of Larry himself.
The primary differences between Rose and all of the others he’s compared to are that they are pass first PGs whereas Rose isn’t. For someone who loves numbers, 5 assists a game should concern you considering the team he was on had more talent on it than just him.
Perhaps I was a bit anxious in saying that Rose is a 2nd coming of Jay Williams but then again, Jay Williams had a much better college career for a much better conference than Conference USA.
And it’s Boney, not Boner. Enjoy your 33 win season, asshat.
dickey simpkins,
It’s easy to call Rose overrated when he’s already being compared to Jason Kidd and Chris Paul.
The guy will be lucky to shoot 42% for his career, perhaps he’ll even give you 6 assists a game. To be honest, I’d Stuckey over him at this point in their careers and that’s not even me being a homer.
For a team that has been craving a low post presence they sure as hell helped themselves in the draft this season.
as a pistons fan, it would theoretically be better for me if derrick rose sucked…but I just can’t see how that would happen. he probably isn’t chris paul, but we should remember that deron williams as a rookie didn’t know how to run a team (I just checked and his assists more than doubled from 4.5 in year 1 to 9.3 in year 2).
even if rose doesn’t know how to run the offense from the very beginning, I think his combination of size, athleticism, and speed with the ball will make him one of the best point guards in the league both on offense and on defense. and if he is a star, does that mean tyrus thomas will drastically improve like tyson chandler did?