Here’s my contribution to the series of Blogger Previews organized by Jeff Clark from Celticsblog. You may have already seen contributions from Need4Sheed and Empty the Bench (not to mention Skeets and Dwyer) earlier this week — I’m a few days late with this.
Last Years Record: A bunch of regular season wins - Not enough playoff wins (ahem, 59-23)
Key Losses: Flip Saunders, Lindsey Hunter, Jarvis Hayes, Theo Ratliff and Juan Dixon.
Key Additions: Michael Curry, Kwame Brown, Will Bynum, Alex Acker and Walter Sharpe.
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
The biggest move was the Flip Saunders for Amir Johnson trade. Okay, okay, that’s not how it’s officially going down on the NBA ledger, but that’s what this summer’s moves amounts to. The rest of the guys who left (Hunter, Hayes, Ratliff and Dixon) won’t really be missed — only Ratliff was part of the regular rotation in the playoffs, and he got the nod over Amir more for his resume than current production.
Herrmann can probably provide everything Hayes did with a dash of defense thrown in for good measure, and Bynum is basically a younger version of Hunter. Kwame will reprise the “token big man without any expectations” role that Ratliff, Dale Davis and Elden Campbell have played in the past, and Acker is more than capable of sitting in the same spot on the bench that Dixon did. Plus, the Pistons drafted Sharpe, a second-round project who’s looked promising in summer league and preseason play.
But under Curry, the Pistons finally have a coach who’s willing to give Johnson an honest-to-goodness chance to succeed. I’m already on the record saying Amir has the potential to someday be a star, but at worst he’s already a taller, more athletic version of Jason Maxiell. The rotation is better with him in it. His presence on the court makes the team faster and more dangerous in transition, and he creates extra possessions by going all out after loose balls and rebounds.
And to think, the Pistons didn’t have to give up anybody on their roster to add him to the rotation. I guarantee that Flip Saunders, when he’s not in line at the bank cashing checks to do nothing, will blush every time he sees a Pistons highlight on SportsCenter. He’d still be employed had he taken advantage of his entire roster.
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?
Experience? Veteran savvy? Other random intangibles? Even under Saunders, an allegedly offense-first coach, the Pistons remained one of the top defensive teams in the league. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that trend continues under Curry. (Okay, that limb isn’t very long — it’s all but etched in stone Detroit will have a top three defense.)
This is going to sound weird, but I think the fact that this team has failed to get back to the Finals the last three years will actually work to their advantage this year. They have a new coach vowing not only to give his players a clean slate but also to hold everybody accountable (including himself). Under Saunders, roles were all but etched in stone, but Curry seems like a guy willing to shake things up (Amir to the starting lineup! Rodney Stuckey getting 30 minutes a game!), and the players seem frustrated enough with their status as the Eastern Conference bridesmaid to go along with it.
3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?
So long as we’re talking about the regular season, they don’t have one. That sounds brash, but this is a team that won 59 games last year, second-most in the league and fourth-most in franchise history. The fact that they didn’t turn over their roster has been held against them, but objectively speaking, this is virtually the same team as last year.
The problem, though, is that this team knows it’s good. That doesn’t matter so much during an Atlanta-Memphis back-to-back in the regular season, but it can haunt them in a seven-game playoff series, as we saw in the first round last year against the 76ers which unexpectedly went six games.
Some people will point to Curry’s lack of experience as a weakness, but I see it as more of a wild card than anything else. He did an outstanding job working with Detroit’s young players last year, and he was also known for his intelligence and hard work as a player. If a team can win a title with Doc Rivers on the sidelines, I don’t see any reason why the Pistons can’t get it done with Curry.
4. What are the goals for this team?
I’m sure the politically correct answer within the locker room walls is, “NBA title or bust!” As a fan, though, I’d settle for a hard-fought loss in the Finals. Not a token appearance like the Cavs in 2006 or a frustrating “it was rigged!” series like the Mavs in 2005, but an honest-to-goodness “we tried but just weren’t good enough” series like Philly in 2001 or Knicks in 1999.
A fourth straight loss in the Conference Finals would be disastrous, though. I’d rather Detroit lost to the eventual champ in the second round than coming oh-so-close only to watch another team advance to the promised land.
5. Is this Detroit’s last stand?
As currently constructed, yes. Joe Dumars decided against making drastic change last summer, but he may not have a choice after this year. Rasheed Wallace will be an unrestricted free agent next summer and Rip Hamilton has the option of being one. And those are just the starters — the bench might lose Jason Maxiell (restricted free agent), Walter Herrmann (unrestricted), Kwame Brown (player option), Cheikh Samb (restricted), Alex Acker (restricted). Not all of those guys will be missed, but not all those guys will be coming back, either. If Rodney Stuckey lives up to expectations in the first half, I won’t be surprised at all to see Hamilton and/or Wallace dealt in a blockbuster at the deadline.
Predicted Record: 55-27
I have to disagree about Johnson being a taller, more athletic version of Maxiell… Maxiell has gotten to the point of being a regular rotation player with the ability to impact games through hard work, hustle, and production.
Johnson is where he is solely on the hope that this young buck will reach his potential- much the same way Darko came into the league.
Maxiell has proven himself over the same number of practices and seasons in the league that Johnson has had, but has outworked and out-performed Johnson at every turn. Not to mention, Maxiell served his time as bench-warmer, but when it came to “which backup big man can I put in, who has the best chance to help our team,” without fail the answer has been Jason Maxiell over Amir Johnson.
So, could Johnson become a star, and eventually make the post his stomping grounds? I think so, and desperately hope so… but don’t discount what Maxiell has done. While nobody will argue Johnson is taller and more athletic, he has yet to show his meddle and prove himself in the NBA the way Maxiell has.
@Joe:
You forgot to mention that Jason Maxiell proved himself in college, providing a greater reason to provide minutes than the unproven Johnson. Johnson had to prove himself in the D-League before getting any consideration for burn.
@MP: You hit the nail on the head. Amir and Max may have arrived at the same time, but Max was light years ahead in terms of development after four years of college. Now that Amir has caught up, I think he’ll pull away. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Max has a long future in this league, but Amir’s ceiling is higher.
(Plus, there’s a *huge* difference between Darko and Amir. Darko was ashamed to play garbage minutes and simply went through the motions. Amir, on the other hand, has the same motor that Maxiell does, he just happened to get luckier in the genetic lottery.)
I still think Maxiell is the better athlete. Strength and above average hops trumps amazing hops.
I think Amir and Max do very similar things and put up very similar numbers but in drastically different ways. Amir blocks a shot like a praying mantis going after a fly. Max looks like King Kong swatting down bi-planes. I’m still not completely convinced of Amir’s potential but I also think I’m overlooking Max’s physical limitations (height) because of his encouraging body of work. AND I seem to remember Max having a decent mid-range J by the end of the playoffs while Amir only seems to go for jump hooks.
Matt- I love the “bridesmaids of Eastern Conference” reference. It explains exactly how I feel.
If we’re talking about athleticism, we need to include Amir’s speed/quickness. He has to be the fastest 6′11 player in the league.
Last nights game showed what Amir is has the ‘potential’ to do. All his minutes were against Dallas’ starters and he guarded Dirk almost the whole time and held him to 5-13 shooting, with a couple of those being really tough shots. He’s only 21, with some what limited playing time, so he’s going to have his ups and downs…but with a consistent 20-25 mpg I think we’ll continue to see more of these type of games from him as the season progresses.
Nice season preview Matt.
Not knowing stats, just watching over the years, I feel like saying Bynum is a younger version of Lindsey Hunter is slightly rash. Not only is it pretty early in Will’s career, but let’s not forget Hunter did some really good things for us during his Pistons tenure. I’d be happy if he could fill Lindsey’s shoes though. He was an asset.
There is no denying Amir is bigger than Maxiell, but I don’t see as much fire outta the dude. I have yet to see him go after Garnett with a knife in his teeth like I did in game 4. Maybe that’s cause he was sitting on his ass alot of that time though.
You sir are the authority, so if I’m wrong about these things that’s fine.
I’m quite excited to see this Pistons team go to war.
I would normally agree that Amir has a higher ceiling than Max based on his height and athleticism, but two things make me think we’re selling the Babyeater short here. They are:
1. Maxiell is every bit as athletic as Amir. In fact, he’s a bit tougher and stronger, and his lower base makes him a lot harder to move off the block. Amir is a bit more fluid and perhaps faster end-to-end, but that’s more useful on a team like the Suns than the Pistons.
2. I have long thought people underestimate Maxiell’s talent. Yes, his skills are more advanced because he went to college. But hey, those are the breaks. Amir would likely be a much better offensive player if he had gone to college and been the go-to guy at Louisville. he didn’t. Instead he has spent three years learning to be a hustle player and a defensive force, which he is becoming. But he still lacks a go-to offensive move and his shot is a bit awkward. I hope he improves as he gets older, but I don’t see him surpassing Max on the offensive for quite a while, especially given Maxiell’s improving jump shot and post game.
The fact is, Maxiell is taller than Charles Barkley was, and he was a pretty good power forward if I remember correctly. His strength, toughness and general bad-ass attitude more than make up for his lack of height. I’m not saying he’s gonna be an All-Star but I can see Max as a quality starting power forward in this league for a long time, averaging 15 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks a night, not to mention 2 or 3 facials. A poor man’s Elton Brand, if you will.
Amir could become the next Shawn Marion or Marcus Camby, or he could be the next Stromile Swift. It’s up to him. But he doesn’t have Max’s drive or winning attitude, at least not yet, and I hope he learns from the Beast.
Yeah, skyler, the bynum to lindsey comparison is a bit premature. Aside from being respected as one of the best on ball defenders in the league, Lindsey also has some hardware. Bynum’s got a long ways to go on both counts.
Re: Hunter — I was referring to what he would have brought to the table *this* year. The guy had a nice career but also averaged just 35 games a season the last three years. He turns 38 in December — is Bynum really that worse of an option right now? I think it’s a wash.
I like the guy; he has a nice smile, seems respected in the locker room and represents the link from guys who played with Isiah and Joe and guys who played with the current group. I watch him and I’m I get nostalgic from watching the team when I was a kid.
But I also think think the fact that he comes through with a couple of impressive steals in the playoffs every year makes us forget the nightmare that he is on the fast break or the fact that he’s shot sub-30% from beyond the arc in four of the last five years. A younger, cheaper guy can do the same thing, but at least with Bynum there’s hope he’ll someday get better.
And don’t forget the lowest fg% of any player in finals history. I agree that hunter was a part time nuisance to other teams recently, but I need to see bynum do anything before he gets the call as a defensive game changer, as lindsey was.
By the way, accurate preview, matt. Just wondering how many years in a row have the preview read “Last chance for this team”. I know the team is taleted, but I would only consider us a championship contender if we make a major move during the season. Otherwise, I have no reason to think we’ll get any further this season then we have the last 3. As a side note to these previews, talk of the East should include the emergence of quality coaches filling the ranks. I think there’s only a few questionable team/coach combos now (Del Negro/bulls, Spoelstra/heat), and the rest either have proven coaches (frank, dantoni,skiles) or proven teams (pistons, celts, cavs). This, more so than talent, has been responsible for the disparity between the east and west conferences.
Lindsey Hunter is the best on-the-ball defender I’ve ever seen. I know that sounds like hyperbole. But, he just destroys people. There’s no way we can replace that.
Hey guys, great preview, however I also think that Maxiell has an advantage for at least this and next year because his past accomplishments. and one more thing (just because I’m a suns fan :D): my boy Amaré is the fastest 6 10 - 6 11 guy in the league