I’m going to let things marinate for a little longer before expounding on my thoughts, but here’s Kevin’s early evaluation. — MW
By Kevin Sawyer
Oh, so that happened… Or will happen… Or will have happened… Has Joe Dumars no respect for our fantasy teams?
With all the hubbub, and (mostly) doom and gloom, I thought it would be useful to break down the trade in exhaustive terms. The trade for Allen Iverson rather obviously has two dimensions, which need essentially to be taken separately.
The Present
There are a million ways to splice the data on two players as wildly divergent as AI and Chauncey. But it does appear that AI would represent a modest step down in terms of production. AI’s PER was about 21 last year, while Chauncey’s was 23.5. If we factor age and regression to career means, we have AI sticking close to 21, and Chauncey at about 22-23. AI isn’t quite the defender Chauncey is either.
That said, one thing to consider is the fact that AI has played an absurd number of minutes. If he can continue to play 42 mpg, his value over his replacement erases the gap here. But this begs the question. Remember that Rodney Stuckey guy? He also plays the position. It seems unlikely that Joe is committing to giving Stuckey fewer minutes, so AI’s days as a 40 mpg guy seem to be numbered.
Now, it is possible that unleashing AI for only 32 mpg would result in modest improvements. As it stands, his percentages have benefited from playing alongside other scoring options. In fact, if you look at AI’s per-minute numbers, we could be getting essentially the same production.
But what’s the point of that? The answer, I suppose, is that AI brings intangibles… Namely hunger. The idea is that Chauncey, having won a championship, is no longer hungry, while AI is still hungry. I wince at any equation that cites an inverse correlation between championships earned and hunger factor. I would further note that Chauncey had the best season of his career last year, hungry or not.
But there are other intangibles. The Pistons offense is one of the most efficient in the NBA. Iverson’s 4+ turnovers per game would mean a regression to the mean. Also, pairing him with Rip squanders our advantage over smaller guards. Also, last year notwithstanding, AI had a history of injuries. If he misses 20 games, we are going to lose quite a few of them.
And, speaking of hunger, what about McDyess? Even if Denver cuts him, the league has to be concerned about the appearance of impropriety, given all the commotion caused last year by veterans who returned promptly to their teams after big trades. It is only 50/50 that McDyess comes back in a Pistons uniform.
At best, this seems a wash. Dumars promised change, and this is that. It beats the heck out of Chauncey for McGrady or Al Harrington, but this leads us to…
The Future
Allen Iverson makes like a billion dollars, and his contract comes off the books. This gives the Pistons a chance to play free agent bingo next year. My guess is that Dumars feels that Stuckey will be ready to take over the point, leaving the Pistons free to pursue a frontcourt option to accompany Amir if/once Sheed departs.
Okay, but who do we sign? Carlos Boozer is the free agent prize, but any number of teams will be making a play for him. He’s kind of a big deal. If we don’t land Boozer, it will likely be a steep drop to pick up the next available agent. And what of Iverson? If we re-sign him at a reasonable salary, how is that an improvement over our situation with Chauncey? And what if we can’t do any deal? Take away Chauncey and Sheed, and the Pistons are a fringe playoff squad.
If we play for 2010, we take an even bigger risk, essentially sacrificing the 2009-10 season as a rebuilding year. The 2010 free agent class looks great on paper, but a number of teams are privy to this fact. As such, the only way this deal moves us up the championship ladder is if Stuckey is ready to play at or near Chauncey’s level, and we can sign Boozer, or if we can make two major acquisitions in 2010. Those are big ifs.
For all the talk of overvaluing our guys, I wonder if Dumars really knows how good Chauncey is. He was a different kind of player, leading a different kind of team. For now, we are left with an apparent dropoff in production at the point. Not enough to keep us out of contention, but I’m not seeing the ceiling here to justify rolling the dice.
Previously on DBB:
Billups/AI trade gives Detroit obscene cap space
Agent: “Dice is not happy at all”
Rasheed reacts
The original “Allen Iverson to Detroit” trade
Hold on, this is happening?
After reading this I’ve decided it’s in your best interests to trade me The Answer for Rafer Alston, Kevin.
Awaiting your trade request,
Tiny: Team Fade Buddha Fade
Well, it’s done. AI’s on the Pistons.com page.
Any way at all that this is part of a two-day multi-team deal, ala 2004?
I think we’re ignoring the most important aspect of this trade here. Is Stuckey going to give AI #3?
I’m pretty sure that Rip, Rasheed, Walter, and anybody else with an outside shot on the Pistons went from “6 to midnight” when they heard about this trade. Now BOTH guys running our point are drive-and-kick specialists. Can you say “wide open jumper” 30 times a game?
And how many times does AI need to lead the league in steals before people at least give him a *little* bit of credit on the defensive end?
We win 60 games this year. 50 the next. And then we land the cornerstone in 2010 (whoever it may be). This trade makes us relevant for another DECADE. Quit crying, people.
^ I think no, but it shall be interesting.
Joel: I’ve never understood the AI = lackluster defender thing, either.
This team now looks like it’s gonna run its ass off, that’s for sure.
So I assume we’re just gonna give the ball to AI and let him create? Does Stuckey run the point when they’re both in?
Honestly, I’m not happy about the trade, but this is the best supporting cast AI’s ever had, so maybe it isn’t so bad. That’s this year of course… next year will most definitely be a step backwards.
Okay, he IS on the website, so I’m moving myself from skeptical about a multi-team to no way. Just a thought.
@ Forty:
Stuckey still wears number 3. From what I understand NBA Players have to request a year in advance for a number change. Weird I know.
The team may run its ass off. Seemed like it early anyway.
But LOL@ Kwame Brown trying to keep up.
Brad, if we get Dyess back, this is FAR AND AWAY the best supporting cast AI’s ever had.
“And how many times does AI need to lead the league in steals before people at least give him a *little* bit of credit on the defensive end?”
Racking up steals doesn’t mean you’re a good defender. In Iverson’s case, he gambles a little too much, which usually leaves his man with a clear path to the basket. To his credit, he does this weird floppy thing that draws charges, but he’s not a good defensive player.
This trade could be good for the financial flexibility it gives, but for now, I don’t think the team will be much better off. I guess no one can blame Dumars for just sitting on his hands all summer, though.
Sorry, I’ve watched Billups get RAN by inferior point guards too often the last two years. Not to mention that the league has figured out that if you trap him at half court, he has no clue how to get out.
AI’s “gambling” style of defense won’t be as much of a gamble when the rest of his team plays the best “team D” in the league. So what if he goes for a steal and misses? The perpetrator then has to go through Prince, Amir, and Rasheed.
Somehow my comment got put at the top of the list… it was meant as a response to Paul M.
Other Matt, isn’t that what I said?
Brad, yeah. I was emphasizing your point. We agree. Pigs fly.
Other Matt, right… isn’t that what I said?
(Guys: I messed up the order of the comments — I just fixed the clock to reflect Daylight Savings being over, but the timestamps didn’t automatically fix themselves. I’ll try to fix manually — sorry for the confusion …)
Billups does get beat by faster PGs, but he’s still generally been able to coax opposing PGs into having poor games (he’s also kept high profile guys like Chris Paul and Steve Nash under wraps). I think the “Billups gets torched all the time” thing is overblown.
Team D isn’t a great argument in Iverson’s favor, since effectively the same thing happens if a guy gets past Billups.
Oh, I hope I’m wrong and all that.
Well, since apparently everybody is going to get torched by the quick guys, how is it a wash if we get an exra 2-3 steals per game from AI?
I still say more pro’s than con’s. I smell magic. Good magic, not like Taco Bell magic.
Maybe AI will work better in Curry’s proposed pressure defense, but I still think you’re underrating Billups’ defensive contribution and overrating AI’s.
I will say that Iverson did contribute to Denver’s one strength defensively, which was forcing turnovers. But the way he was forcing those turnovers (flopping trying to take charges and overplaying passing lanes for steals) more often than not left his man open, from what I saw.
It may be less of an issue than I think if Stuckey and Spellcheck get more time.
Now, we just parlay this into a deal for Starbury…ooh yeah…
“For all the talk of overvaluing our guys, I wonder if Dumars really knows how good Chauncey is.”
I think Dumars knows EXACTLY how good Chauncey is. Hence the trade.
@Garrett:
Exactly. He gets paid lots of money to make these decisions. We like to watch basketball games on TV.
Good trade.
Iverson is Detroit all the way. Oh did i mention i’m a Lakers fan? But when you see the league improve when players get matched with suitable teams its best for the fans. Learn sufficiently Mr Stuckey, the world is it your feet and Sheed will get the boards and be rejuevinated with the all the driving dishes. Man, so many players i wish were on the Lake Show. Real exciting!! Much respect.
From Australia
(We play Detroit tough)
Bad Boys are back! Jason Maxiell is incredible, Tayshaun is one of the best role/take control of the game players I seen.
Pappas
Michael Curry discusses the trade. Great candid interview
http://hoopsoup.com/2008/11/03/michael-curry-discusses-iverson-billups-trade/
I think one point that has been missed on using future cap space is that the pistons do not have to use it on free agents.A rebuilding team may have a very good player that no longer “fits” their long range plan and could become avaiable for next to nothing to a team with cap space. It seems to be happening more and more.