Apologies for the lack of posting — real world stuff occasionally has to take precedence. What’s the easy way to catch up? Bullet points!
- The picture above is from the DBB Suite Night on Friday. It’s always fun to put faces to some of the familiar names that appear in the comments, and on Friday I was fortunate to meet Fadel, TW, Tiny and Stuck. Plus, it was the first time in a couple of seasons that I attended a game with DBB’s former (and future?) co-pilot, Ian. You can check out more pictures here, including our visit from the 1990 Larry O’Brien.
On behalf of everyone who attended, I’d like to thank the Pistons for making this happen, especially Dave Wieme for playing the role of tour guide.
- So yeah … Michael Curry and Tayshaun Prince had a little back-and-forth after Sunday’s loss. Many of you have already discussed and digested it in the comments, but my take is up at FanHouse:
While the entire team has been forced to adjust to Allen Iverson’s arrival, perhaps no one has been asked to change his game as much as Prince. It’s clear that Curry doesn’t trust Iverson to run the offense, and to compensate he’s frequently relied on a three-guard lineup, which bumps Prince to the four, or a traditional two-guard lineup with Prince running the show as a point forward.
Either way, Prince is playing out of position. While he may be averaging a career-high with 15.3 points and 6.5 rebounds, those numbers are skewed by a handful of games early on. In his last seven games, he’s averaged just 11.1 points and 3.7 boards, and even though he’s played a lot at the one, he’s tallied more than three assists in a game just three times all year.
If Curry is serious about wanting Tay to be an All-Star, he’s got to at least put him in a position to succeed. My solution? I’m officially a member of the “AI for Sixth Man of the Year!” club. Read the whole post for my rationale.
- Update: MLive.com’s Pardeep Toor advocates a change to the starting lineup, as well — but he wants to put Rip or Tay on the bench.
- Curry is dedicated to developing the bench:
“Young guys haven’t played,” he said. “At the end of the year, guys are tired. Y’all tell me all the excuses — I’ve read all of them over the years. We’re going to play our young guys. If our young guys are playing well, they’re going to stay in the game. They deserve it, they’ve earned it, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
- Amir Johnson needs to keep doing this.
- It was less than a year ago that Detroit was being mentioned as a possible destination for Stephon Marbury. Now that Marbury is negotiating a buyout, be thankful that Flip Saunders, his lone connection to the D, is gone.
If you look at the 82games.com 5-man unit stats every lineup with AI-Rip in the backcourt is getting outplayed by the opponents. The only lineup with AI-Rip on the court that is positive has Rip at SF with Afflalo at the SG.
Here are the top 3 5-man lineups (all caveats about small sample size appply).
Stuckey-Rip-Amir-Prince-Sheed - +21 in 37 minutes
AI-Afflalo-Herrmann-Maxiell-Sheed - +13 in 16 minutes
AI-Afflalo-Rip-Prince-Sheed - +21 in 25 minutes
Why not play each of these units 12 minutes and mix and match another 12? Forget matching up against the other team and just play.
It’s actually good news that there is a lineup with AI + Rip that works — Rip at SF, AI at PG, Afflalo as a stopper guard. If you look at the stats the other team does not get inside nearly as much with Afflalo on the court which suggests to me he cuts off the penetration of whoever he is guarding. Afflalo is a beast on D.
Curry is playing AI and Rip together way too much, which prevents him from actually playing the lineups with AI that work. I think the Pistons need to play minutes like a Euro squad, everyone in 20s except ‘Sheed and Tay. And somebody show AI a Lakers boxscore. Kobe is playing 33 minutes a game on a team where he won rings. AI is on a new team where he hasn’t won jack and can’t make all the practices. Humble yourself a bit about PT AI. And Will Bynum needs to get cut back to garbage time. I love Bynum’s game but developing a 3rd PG on this team is the least of the worries now.
I don’t think Detroit’s coaching staff needs to reinvent the wheel here. Just look at what worked and do more of that, look at what didn’t work and do less of that.
And kudos to all the DBB readers, Matt, and the Pistons. Looks like a great time all around!
“Curry is playing AI and Rip together way too much, which prevents him from actually playing the lineups with AI that work.”
Yup.
Here’s the problem:
AI, Rip, and Tay are all mid-range players. Defenses are able to pack in against the Pistons starting line-up.
Multiple Possible Solutions (not a simple either/or):
- Play Aflalo many more minutes w AI. Aflalo’s 3pt touch opens up the opposing defense, and Aflalo’s permimeter defense covers some of AI’s defensive problems.
- Start having Rip and/or Tay spot out behind the 3pt line. Both are good 3pt shooters, but both don’t currently have the mindset of staying out there to provide spacing.
- Stop playing AI and Stuckey together. Both are penetrators, and neither are good 3pt shooters. When both are on the court together, the opposition is able to clog up the middle. Play AI 34mpg and Stuckey 14mpg with no overlap.
- Have either Rip or AI come off the bench and act as the Pistons version of Ginobili. When they come into the came, they suddenly start dominating the offense. (AI is a much better candidate for this than Rip, since he can generate his own shot better than Rip.)
—–
I understand that the Pistons are trying to develop Stuckey for the future, but if there is any desire to actually win a title before Rasheed winds down, Stuckey should be getting fewer minutes this year. Aflalo is the young guard who fits in with the goal of actually winning this year.
From the Fanhouse piece:
“Besides, it was Joe Dumars’ confidence in Rodney Stuckey that convinced him to move Chauncey Billups in the first place. Stuckey was extremely inconsistent early this season but seems to have turned the corner, averaging 13.3 points and 7.0 assists in 24.6 minutes over the last three games.”
Stuckey has not been particularly productive this year, even with the past 3 games factored in.
He has a Mardy Collins-like TS% of 46%, has an Ast/TO ratio of about 1.5, and hasn’t been able to keep opposing PG’s in front of him. He has the worst +/- number of any rotation player on the team.
Dumars may well be correct that Stuckey will be dynamite down the road, but he’s still likely to be a subpar NBA player for the rest of this season.
While I do think AI off the bench is interesting strategically, I think it could be perceived as curry saying dumars made a mistake less than a quarter into the season. That’s over-simplifying, but you can imagine the headlines. And AI would hate it, I’m guessing.
That said, those aren’t great reasons to dislike it. And AI might change his tune when he gets to just jack it up with the second unit
I miss Chauncey Billups. Watching Denver now is like walking in on your girlfriend getting banged by somebody you always thought was an annoying douchebag.
It breaks my heart. And my soul.
*tiny violins play in the distance*
“AI might change his tune when he gets to just jack it up with the second unit”
Regardless of who starts, AI should be playing fewer minutes, and dominating the ball more while he’s on the court. It doesn’t matter if he shoots or not, but he’s got to initiate plays and draw defenders to himself.
Also, in terms of ’second units’, worth noting that in San Antonio, even when Manu comes off the bench, he plays mostly with the starters.
“you can imagine the headlines. And AI would hate it, I’m guessing.”
The only way it’d work is if AI were to buy into it ahead of time.
Which is why I thought benching him over the Turkey Day practice was a bad idea. If not starting is punishment, it’s hard to shift the meaning to not starting as non-punishment.
The same calculations would be involved in the alternate plan of moving Rip to the Manu slot.
—–
Regardless of who starts, (which really isn’t the important question), I haven’t been happy with Curry’s overall rotations so far. As stated, I want more minutes with AI and Aflalo on the floor together, for example.
For another example, the Pistons lost the Portland game when Curry got the bright idea of playing Walter Herrmann at the ‘4′ with Amir and three guards for a stretch in the middle of the fourth quarter. I understand wanting to go small, but Herrmann wasn’t the guy to keep track of Aldridge at a crucial point of the game.
And Curry is going to kill Rasheed down the line if he keeps playing him so heavily. I’d rather lose an extra game or two than have Rasheed dead by springtime.
@Joel.. hilarious! I miss C Billups too.
Start Stuck and bring AI off the bench. Sit him down and sell him on the idea first (Joe D), but then do it. We will start winning games. Winning solves everything.
I’m joining the “AI for Sixth Man of the Year!” club, too. The other night during the post-game press conference, AI said something about why he’s playing inconsistently, saying something like “this is the first time in my career where I sit [on the bench] for a long time and I don’t have my rhythm.”
Moving him behind Stuckey would make us stronger.
I think it is Walter Sharpe time.
Walter has looked very aggressive in his limited appearances.
I like the fact that he has no conscious about shooting when he is open, especially since he can create his shot. I think eventually he could be a 15+ a night guy on offense with solid rebounding, passing and hopefully defense.
I would like to see Curry pick spots when the opponents 3 coming off of the bench is not known to be a prolific scorer and give Sharpe 5 or so minutes against a player like that.
Time to move forward on the rebuilding plan.
$35 or so million will be available for free agent signing after this coming June 30th unless Joe D. trades Sheed or AI before then.
@Everyone on this thread
You guys can’t talk about changing lineups without talking about the different matchups. Our optimal lineups could be completely different when facing a team like LAL compared to a team like Denver.
What’s strange about a lot of people supporting Iverson going to the bench is that it’s not out of punishment or even on-court matchups, but almost entirely because we think he’d be surrounded by a better group of guys with the reserves. I don’t think this is because of style of play, but rather level of play. Whether you’ve just watched the bulk of the games this year or only look at statistics AA-Herrmann-Maxiel-Amir have played better than Rip-Tay-Sheed-Kwame, +/-, points per 48, boards per 48, you name it. So, really, wouldn’t it make more sense to make that the starting lineup? Who are the guys that aren’t playing well - Rip, Tayshaun, Rasheed (if you grade him as a PF and not a shooting guard. His 8 rebounds don’t wow me when you consider his minutes and the lack of rebounding effort by the other starters.)
If Hermmann gots the volume of shots Rip did, he could average around 20. In fact, he’s proven that already in his career. I’m led to believe that AA may be a better lock down defender than Prince. He did well against LeBron and Kobe in both of our big wins. He’s stronger so when it comes to the LeBron’s and Pierces of the world he may be better suited physically. Maxiel and Amir shoot a higher % close than Sheed or Kwame, and both have better rebounds per 48. Of course, Kwame would be the better start in certain matchups and then Maxiel could come off the bench. As cool as it’d be to have Iverson come off the bench - I’d rather have a Stuckey-Hamilton-Prince-Sheed-Dyess bench - espeically because I think the team would be just as good. Of course, that won’t happen but imagining Curry selling Iverson moving to the bench is nuts.
Curry: “Guys, listen up. Big new. A.I. you’re going to be coming off the bench now and Stuckey will start. Now, don’t take it as an insult. Just think about it, you’ll be our Manu Ginobli. Isn’t that what you always dreamed of, A.I? To be compared to Manu Ginobli? Don’t you dream of being that 3rd most important player on a championship team? Don’t you long to uncannily resemble Balki Bartokomous? I mean sure we don’t have a Tim Duncan or Tony Parker to justify the move in the sake of offensive balance, but we do have Rip Hamilton that loves coming off double screens, getting fed the ball at a precise moment and curling and shooting - unfortunately that takes all 5 players to execute and you don’t seem like a willing passer. Oh, what, you do pass to him and he just misses the shots. Hmm. You see Rip Hamilton is shooting a hair over 40% and I’d like to compliment him with a guard that shoots, amazingly, even a lower percentage. They’ll just work better together. Plus, I need a starting PG who plays like a drunk version of D-Wade. Sure, this will make it seem like Dumars totally messed up by trading for you. Sure, it’ll look like I’m putting the blame of our struggles solely on your shoulders. But at least their not on mine. And, oh yeah, all that stuff I said about accontability, and playing those who deserve it - well that doesn’t apply to guys like Maxiel, Herrmann or AA if they are doing well - and it doesn’t apply to Rip, Tayshaun or Stuckey if they are playing poorly. When I said that, I was really only talking about Amir. If he plays poorly I pull him. Everyone else, well, it’ll be the same as Flip - but I’ll just play guards at the power positions.”
All the people that are saying that it’s only 16 games. C’mon. 10-6 isn’t that bad. But it’s the fact that we are 3-4 in our last seven - losing games that we shouldn’t have, in ways that were ridiculous. It’s also the fact that it’s so early in the season and we are 3.5 games back on Cleveland already. They seem to be rolling and it already requires the Pistons to go on a decent run in hopes of gaining a couple games on them. Right now we’d be the 5 - with an Atlanta-Boston-Cleveland route to the finals. The attitude of “I’m going to wait till the All Star break before I’m concerned” I hope isn’t the same perspective of Dumars and Curry. Yes, I think the Pistons will go on a run - but rather than be able to say “I told you guys so” I’d rather be able to say “that’s what I said they should do four weeks ago.”
We will be behind Cleveland all season they have like the easiest schedule in the league. Im not sure they have a tough game all of December.
Fadel-Doesn’t that Iverson quote make you not want to bench him? He’s more or less saying that over his 13 years he’s never been in a situation where he plays so little and he’s struggling to adjust to that - which makes sense by the way. How in the world would playing him even less make that situation better? It seems crazy to think that a player that has been successful in his career in one certain role - as a high minute, high volume shooter - can be just as successful in a mid-minute role. I don’t know how easily that transition could take place - but maybe too long.
Walter Sharpe had that one cool dunk. His other appearance when we had the big lead on the Bucks was horrible. He missed a couple open shots that we’re ugly and had a totally awful drive to the hoop that got turned away. I don’t know if he was just trying to go out there and prove something to Curry as he shot it every time he touched it very early on the shot clock as the Bucks almost made it seem like it was possible to come back at the rate he was shooting and missing - but he should be playing in the D-league or overseas at this point in his career. Actually he should have played in college - that probably would have helped his development too.
I have to admit, bringing AI off the bench and trying to get him as much time with Herrmann and Afflalo makes some sense. AI can dominate the ball more and both guys can space the floor for him and they usually rely on others to set them up to score, especially Herrmann. The fact that AI would be paired with a very good back court defender and quicker big men in Amir and Maxiell to help with pick and roll defense is another plus.
However, Rip and AI will still end up playing together a good chunk of the game. If they can’t end up figuring it we’re screwed come playoff time.
It obviously hasn’t been an easy transition from Billups to AI, but I still say we need at least 10 to 15 games with McDyess on board to truly evalute our team this year.
“However, Rip and AI will still end up playing together a good chunk of the game. If they can’t end up figuring it we’re screwed come playoff time.”
If I were coaching the team, I simply wouldn’t play the two together very much, unless Rip is willing and able to abandon his mid-range game and become more of a catch & shoot player behind the arc. (The last few years, he’s been knocking 3’s down at a high percentage…)
If Rip insists on playing his mid-range game, Curry could play Iverson 34mpg, Rip for 24mpg, and only have them on the court together for 10mpg.
I like playing Rip with Stuckey, and playing AI with Aflalo.
Assume for a moment that we start AI, Arron, Tay, Sheed, and a center.
Then we’re able to have Rip and Stuckey come in a have a consistently decent second unit.
Juicebox:
Yeah, my first post isn’t logical. I was stating two completely different thoughts. lol
1. I was just pointing out what AI said and was hoping someone would try to draw their own conclusion from that quote.
2. I was just stating Stuckey would be better starting because the statistics don’t lie.
“- Play Aflalo many more minutes w AI. Aflalo’s 3pt touch opens up the opposing defense, and Aflalo’s permimeter defense covers some of AI’s defensive problems.”
Overall Spellcheck is a major offensive liability. His percentages have improved mostly because he shoots so infrequently that he is taking only the most open shots. As such, his PER is below 11, as it was last year.
For those who don’t know, Matt is the Center on that team pictured above.
I don’t think you necessarily have to bring AI off the bench. But, I do think it’s a great idea to have him run more with the second unit. It’s just in how you work the rotations.
But, as others have pointed out, he and Rip will be on the court at the same time a lot. That can’t be avoided. In those situations, you have Tay run the point. And (I think) you run a more Rip centered offense: Run Rip off a screen and then a second later have AI run off a screen in another direction. This gets Rip in a groove and it gets AI moving too. That’s got to be a nightmare for defenses.
“Overall Spellcheck is a major offensive liability. His percentages have improved mostly because he shoots so infrequently that he is taking only the most open shots.”
Spellchek has a TS% of 60% this year. That’s damn good.
And the beauty of playing him in the backcourt with Iverson is that all he’ll get is open shots. I’ve watched Iverson’s entire career, and the one thing he can do in spades is create wide open shots for his backcourt mate.
Afflalo can knock those shots down at a high percentage, and play stellar defense to boot.
And as long as Afflalo is standing out there ready to knock down wide open shots, Iverson will find easier drives both for his own finishes, and to deliver to interior players for their finishes. Afflalo would create spacing.
—–
“But, as others have pointed out, he and Rip will be on the court at the same time a lot. That can’t be avoided. In those situations, you have Tay run the point. And (I think) you run a more Rip centered offense: Run Rip off a screen and then a second later have AI run off a screen in another direction. This gets Rip in a groove and it gets AI moving too.”
I could be wrong, but I think that doesn’t work.
Iverson and Rip are a bit like Curry and Randolph were in New York. They disrupt, rather than complement each others’ game. They need to occupy the same space.
And I’m not a fan so far of Tay at the point finding wings coming off screens. As an opposing coach, that wouldn’t scare me at all.
Tay should be running secondary point to Iverson. In other words, when Iverson drives and gets stuck or finds nothing, he kicks it out to Tay who can then make a sane decision.
—–
Tonight is going to be an interesting game. This is one I expect us to lose, so any surprises will be nice ones.
“Spellchek has a TS% of 60% this year. That’s damn good.”
It is. But he only takes a shot every 4.5 minutes. The shot has improved; the propensity to disappear on offense has not.
I would be all for finding ways to get Spellcheck more involved on offense. My theory is that anyone with a true shooting percentage of 60% or better should keep shooting until that number drops.
Speaking of which, Herrmann’s percentage of 67.5 would rank tenth in NBA history. He’s in Artis Gilmore territory. Give him minutes, for crying out loud.
“Tonight is going to be an interesting game. This is one I expect us to lose, so any surprises will be nice ones.”
I think we’ll win.
I love how aggressively Afflalo takes it to the rim, especially on fast breaks. He also finishes really well.
kevin s. - When you look at the stats for Afflalo how do you weigh his low PER vs. his stellar +/-? I don’t think it’s random that the team always seems to go on a spurt when Spellcheck in on the court. If Detroit gets stops at higher rate then their opponent and takes care of the basketball it’s winning basketball whether they shoot 45% or 40%. The key is make the other team shoot even worse. I don’t think PER captures any of that.
@Garrett:
You mean…. you like his slam dunk shots?
MP: Ha! In so few words………..yes.
Naw, but seriously (a la Magic Johnson on Family Guy), every time I see him check into the game he seems to get a bust-loose fast break where he goes hard up the wing, gets fouled, and manages to finish. It seems like we get so stagnant with jumpers sometimes that I get really excited when we take it to the rim.