Archive for December, 2008

Pistons ring in the New Year with Nets

Published by Matt Watson on December 31, 2008 in Nets and Previews. 183 Comments

We’re going old school today — after weeks of being spoiled with Kevin’s awesome previews, all I’ve got a few sparse words before reminding you the ball tips at 3 PM on Fox Sports. Enjoy the game, and if you go out tonight, be safe. Thanks for spending another year with DBB, everybody. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

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Update: Actually, no, we do have a preview — sorry for the delay, we briefly had our wires crossed.

Nets: 15-16 (10-4 road)
Margin: -2.5 ppg (+1.5 road)
Last 10: 4-6 (margin -2.4)

Pistons: 18-11 (10-5 home)
Margin: +0.6 ppg (+2.5 home)
Last 10: 7-3 (margin +2.1)

Oppo research:

The Nets are the surprise team of the year. After doffing Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian, the Nets were thought to be tanking for LeBron. Alas, they’ve actually played pretty well, at least on the road. The Nets are one of the leagues best road teams, and one of the very worst home teams. Maybe the players have already made the mental move to Brooklyn.

The Nets’ offense pretty much consists of a bunch of big guys shagging balls for Devin Harris and Vince Carter. Harris’ astonishing season has been well covered, but Carter seems to be enjoying the freedom of being the second scoring option, putting up his best numbers in years.

And then there’s the rest. Brook Lopez is enjoying a solid rookie campaign, but paired with Yi and Bobby Simmons… That’s one lousy frontcourt. The Nets have had bad luck with big men, from Nenad Krstic’s injuries to losing DaSagana Diop to free agency, to Sean Williams forgetting how to play the sport in the offseason.

The Nets are a lousy defensive squad, and fail to guard the perimeter at all, allowing opponents to shoot 42% from three point range. The Nets use a long bench, with no player other than Carter and Harris, earning more than 30 mpg. It is not clear to me why this is so, since the Nets have a weak bench.

The Drama:

Devin Harris torched Detroit in Iverson’s first game as a Piston. Hopefully, that will be added motivation for the D to lock down on dribble penetration. Otherwise, things will get dramatic in a hurry.

Keys for Detroit:

Focus on Carter and Harris: In particular, harassing Carter on the perimeter and preventing Harris from getting into the lane. If you stop these guys, the Nets have no other offensive options.

Crash the boards: While NJs big men aren’t particularly skilled, they are decent rebounders, and that’s about all they do. McDyess and Amir should see heavy minutes keeping the Nets big men off the glass.

SHEEEEEED!: There’s no way NJ can keep up with him on the perimeter. Sheed should have the green light to light it up, as he’ll be open all day from three point range.

Question of the game:

With the arbitrary 3p starting time, will the Pistons be tricked into thinking it’s Sunday? If so, expect Devin Harris to drop score 67 points on 38-43 free throw shooting.

An argument for Rip

Published by Matt Watson on December 31, 2008 in Alley-Oops. 4 Comments

Dave Dial makes an argument at Full-Court Press that Rip Hamilton, not Allen Iverson, should come off the bench. I’ve made my preference known, but either way it’d be progress.

The physical effects of smallball

Published by Matt Watson on December 31, 2008 in From the news and Injuries. 28 Comments

Tayshaun Prince is feeling the physical effects of playing out of position at the four. From Keith Langlois at True Blue Pistons:

“It’s not even close,” he said of the difference to his body between guarding a small forward for 40 minutes or playing 40 minutes at power forward. “There’s so many more things the big men have to do. Boxing out, your guy setting screens, fighting through screens and also bigs setting pick and rolls and you’ve got to help the guard and get back to the big and try to box him out. The little things. (Playing small forward) is not so much wear and tear on you as far as body contact. There’s a lot of perimeter-oriented stuff. The only thing you worry about at the three is pick and rolls.

“At the end of the day, no matter what, you’re going to be tired. But playing the four, or playing against Utah and going double overtime against Mehmet (Okur), those types of games, when you wake up the next day, you’re going to feel it as opposed to guarding a strong three man. You just pretty much have to keep him in front of you and make them take jump shots. He’s not crashing the boards every time so you have to box him out. When you’re at the four, you have to do those types of things.”

Rip will miss three in row

Published by Matt Watson on December 30, 2008 in Alley-Oops and Injuries. 0 Comments

From Vince Ellis: “Hamilton missed practice today to get treatment, and it’s likely that Amir Johnson will once again start in his place. Curry indicated that he wants to make sure Hamilton is ready to go before the team embarks on a four-game, seven-day Western trip, which begins Sunday at the L.A. Clippers.”

Did smallball just die?

Published by Matt Watson on December 30, 2008 in Shameless Plugging. 151 Comments

Of course not; as Kevin pointed out in last night’s game thread, “It was never alive.”

The question, though, is whether Michael Curry is ready to admit it. We won’t know for sure until Rip Hamilton’s groin allows him to play and gives Curry a full deck, but he certainly seems to be leaning in the direction of sanity and a balanced rotation. I wrote a long-ish piece on this at FanHouse featuring bunches of post-game comments from both Curry and Allen Iverson.

“We’ve looked at our lineup at different times and we’ve thought about different guys possibly coming off the bench, but we haven’t made a decision on that,” Curry said. “That’s kind of a tough decision.

“But we look around and … we look at teams that have done it and it’s pretty effective. I think the Lakers with Lamar Odom it’s effective for them, Kirilenko in Utah has been really effective, and same thing with Ginobili in San Antonio. So it can be effective, and whether it is any of our perimeter guys, one of them coming off the bench, maybe we’ll have to look at it. But we’ll just cross that bridge when we get to it.”

Just when will the Pistons cross that bridge? The fact that he’s openly talking about it as a possibility leads me to think it’ll happen as soon as Hamilton is ready to return.

Earlier this month I asked Curry if he’d thought about benching Iverson for Stuckey (which, to be honest, seemed more plausible than simply starting three guards and playing four players out of position) and he looked at me like I was crazy. But last night? He admitted in front of a dozen reporters and a couple of television cameras that it’s not only a possibility but perhaps inevitable, at least so long as defense is a priority.

Go read the whole thing, it’s like having Christmas twice in one week.

Pistons host Magic

Published by Kevin Sawyer on December 29, 2008 in Guest Writer, Magic and Previews. 206 Comments
I’m at the game for FanHouse, Twittering all the while. Kevin, meanwhile, came through again with yet another bang-up preview. Remember how I called BrewHoop one of my favorite team blogs? Ben Q Rock’s Third Quarter Collapse is right there at the top, too. Ball tips at 7:30 — leave your thoughts in the comments. –MW

By Kevin Sawyer

Magic: 24-6 (11-3 road)
Margin: +7.5 ppg (+7.7 road)
Last 10: 9-1 (margin +11.8)

Pistons: 17-11 (9-5 home)
Margin: +0.4 ppg (+2.8 home)
Last 10: 6-4 (margin +0.3)

Oppo research:

Indeed, the team that didn’t give Detroit much of a fight in the playoffs last year has, without any substantive personnel changes, morphed into a powerhouse. The Magic have silenced critics who pointed to their early schedule by winning 11 of 12 against a slate that included the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz and Blazers.

The biggest difference this year has been the inspired play of Jameer Nelson, who is averaging 20 ppg on 58% shooting in December, and a ridiculous 61% from three point range. His performance has been enough to offset Hedo Turkoglu’s predictable return to earth after last year’s excellent campaign.

Of course, the Magic still have Dwight Howard, who has established himself as a defensive force. Together with newly acquired defensive stopper Pietrus, he leads a team that allows a stingy 42.5% field goal percentage, all without fouling excessively. As a result, the Magic are the leagues third best defensive squad.

On the offensive end, the Magic offer few surprises. Howard on the post and TONS of three pointers.

The Drama:

Given his hot shooting stroke, maybe Jameer Nelson will focus on playing basketball instead of judo leg-sweeps. Chauncey plays for Denver, but I haven’t forgotten.

Keys for Detroit:

Guard Jameer Nelson: Nelson has benefited from the perception that Hedo Turkoglu is a greater offensive threat than he is. Nobody shoots 60% from three point range unless defenses are utterly ignoring them.

Ditch small ball: Irrespective of the system’s merits, it won’t work against this team. Prince has shown that he can stop Hedo Turkoglu, which will allow Detroit to stay on their defensive assignments. With Hamilton possibly out another game with injury, coach Curry might not have a choice.

Send Howard to the line: Given that the Magic average 1.28 points per shot, consider this the equivalent of an intentional walk. As usual, Howard is starting to wear down as the season progresses, so aggressive defense will also mean more minutes for Marcin Gortat, though the latter has acquitted himself nicely in limited minutes.

Question of the game:

I’ll defer to McCosky on this one. Will it be small ball or basketball in this one? Curry might be able to use Hamilton’s injury as an excuse to get one more look at what Detroit can do with a normal lineup. A win tonight would certainly help make a decision either way.

The Pistons are in Milwaukee

Published by Kevin Sawyer on December 27, 2008 in Bucks and Previews. 209 Comments
Being on the tail-end of a back-to-back isn’t ideal, but the silver lining is the Pistons avoiding the dreaded Sunday game. Kudos to Kevin for the preview, and if you have time, be sure to check out BrewHoop, one of my personal favorite team blogs. The ball tips at 8:30 PM on Fox Sports, leave your thoughts in the comments. — MW

By Kevin Sawyer

Bucks: 14-16 (6-12 road)
Margin: +0.3 ppg (-1.0 road)
Last 10: 6-4 (margin +4.8)

Pistons: 16-11 (9-5 home)
Margin: +0.1 ppg (+2.1 home)
Last 10: 5-5 (margin -1.3)

Oppo research:

Pop quiz. Which of these teams currently ranks 22nd in John Hollinger’s power rankings, and which ranks 11th? If you guessed the Bucks and Pistons, respectively, you aren’t good with putting pop quizzes into context. Alas, the Bucks come to the Palace having won five of their last six, and are playing on four days rest. The Pistons, of course, needed each and every second to put away the OKC Thunder last night.

The Bucks are an interesting team. Had they kept Mo Williams, instead of (absurdly) trading him for Luke Ridnour, they might be a dark horse to win a playoff round. Instead, the combo of Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson and Andrew Bogut hasn’t provided enough offensive firepower.

Redd, in particular, seems to miss having another shooter on the squad. His 41% field goal percentage rates as a career low by a country mile. Meanwhile, it is unclear why backup Ramon Sessions has not been granted the starting spot. Ridnour is a solid backup, but nothing more.

The Bucks are a greatly improved defensive squad, with rookie Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and hardnosed coach Scott Skiles earning much of the credit in this department. They play a VERY physical style, which shows up at the foul line, where Bucks opponents arrive 31 times per game. They are also an outstanding offensive rebounding squad, which will be fun to watch I’m sure.

The Drama:

I would expect to see coach Skiles chew out the PISTONS backcourt, just on principle.

Keys for Detroit:

Get the bigs involved: The Bucks don’t have a single front-court option that has been able to avoid foul trouble. Sheed, Dyess and Amir (fingers-crossed) should make a particular effort to get inside, since all three can hit free throws.

Run in transition: Curious as it sounds, given the Bucks’ recent history, a fast paced game will take them out of their element. They miss a lot of shots, and a faster pace tends to limit second-chance opportunities. Again, why play small ball if you aren’t going to do this?

Just because you haven’t heard of them, doesn’t mean you don’t defend them: Ramon Sessions and Luc Richard Etc are very good at what they do, and each can put up a double-double. With Luke Ridnour possibly limited due to flu-like symptoms, Sessions could be set for a big game.

Question of the game:

Can the Pistons stand a real test? Detroit has been feasting (if you can call it that) a VERY weak schedule. Now that they are consistently playing real NBA teams, we should get a better idea of where they stand.

Pistons host Thunder

Published by Kevin Sawyer on December 26, 2008 in Guest Writer, Previews and Sonics. 233 Comments
I hope everyone had a happy holiday, assuming, you know, your faith of choice celebrated one recently. (It’s wordy being PC!) I’ll be at the game for FanHouse, and if you have a Twitter account, you can send me questions for players/coaches/me @NBAFanHouse during the game. Thanks again to Kevin for the preview — ball tips at 8 PM on Fox Sports Plus. As usual, leave your thoughts in the comments. — MW

By Kevin Sawyer

Thunder: 3-26 (1-3 road)
Margin: -9.4 ppg (-7.4 road)
Last 10: 1-9 (-6.4 margin)

Pistons: 15-11 (8-5 home)
Margin: even (+2.6 home)
Last 10: 5-5 (-0.3 margin)

Oppo research:

Of the Chicago Bulls, I said “(they) don’t do anything particularly well.” I am now bereft of anti-superlatives to describe the OKC Thunder. General Manager Sam Presti is revered as some sort of basketball genius, but at present, he’s saddled with one of the worst rosters in NBA history. To date, his biggest accomplishment was watching ping-pong balls bounce his way.

That said, the Thunder have been playing well of late, registering a win against Toronto, and credible challenges to Cleveland and Atlanta on their Eastern Conference swing. Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook in particular have stepped up their game. Westbrook dropped 24 points to go with 11 assists against the Cavs, while Jeff Green is coming off back-to-back double-doubles.

Outside of their solid young trio, however, the pickings are slim. Nick Collison has been disappointing this season, and looks to be out with a thumb injury. That leaves Chris Wilcox, Johan Petro and Robert Swift (also day-to-day) to man the paint. Each is a capable rebounder, but none are stellar defenders or scorers.

As such, this Thunder team is one without a real threat on the outside (they only shoot ten threes per game) or the inside. That’s not a good combination.

The Drama:

If the Pistons blow this, the calls to fire Curry will begin in earnest.

Keys for Detroit:

Sit Iverson: Curry is hopeful that Allen Iverson can play on three days’ rest after suffering a groin injury against Chicago. Let me get this straight. Your point guard is coming off a 40 point effort. Your squad is facing the worst team in the league at home in your 27th game of the year… And you’re going to test the legs of a 33 year old who relies on his speed to be effective?

Man the boards: OKC has been on a roll of late, outrebounding seven of their last eight opponents. Of course, given that this team shoots 43% from the field, the Thunder bigs have had plenty of practice.

Stop dribble penetration: The Pistons shouldn’t hesitate to go zone to stop Durant and Green. It is rare to find a team that doesn’t have anyone to penalize opponents from outside, and the Pistons have been vulnerable to dribble penetration all season.

Question of the game:

Can Stuckey do it again? With Iverson likely to see limited minutes, and facing young perimeter defenders, Stuckey has a golden opportunity to prove his big game was no fluke.

Re-thinking the 2007 draft

Published by Matt Watson on December 26, 2008 in Alley-Oops. 40 Comments

On the heels of Rodney Stuckey’s 40-point explosion, Keith Langlois asks, “How many of the 14 teams picking ahead of the Pistons in the 2007 draft are still kicking themselves over the events of that night?” I’d say at least 12.

Looking inside Stuckey’s numbers

Published by Matt Watson on December 26, 2008 in Around the Internets. 2 Comments

From Adam Madison for ESPN:

If Stuckey can retain his plus shooting from the field — 47 percent for the season, nearly seven percentage points higher than his rookie season’s 40.1 percent — then there’s no reason he can’t lead the Pistons in scoring. Well, except for that Iverson guy.

Stuckey’s shooting percentage may seem high — boosted by an insane 58.3 percent mark in December — and my natural inclination to that is to assume it’s just hot jump shooting. Looking on 82games.com, though, I saw that only 52 percent of his shots have been jumpers, while the other 48 percent have all been inside the paint. Browsing other top wing players’ stats helps you see just how impressive that mark is. Forty-one percent of LeBron James’ shots are inside, for example. Dwyane Wade is at 36 percent, Paul Pierce at 28 percent, and Kobe Bryant at 23 percent. If you can get into the lane at will, and have a respectable enough jump shot to keep defenses honest, then not much is preventing you from being an offensive juggernaut. By the way, it’s not much of a sample size, but Stuckey is shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc this season.

Hat-tip: Full-Court Press

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